Articles by : Vasylenko Yu. № 3/2001
Methodological aspects of analytical research
VASYLENKO Yu.
On the Correctness of Aggregate Indexes
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2001; 3:111-122 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
This article pursues the two following purposes: 1) to show, that the commonly accepted statistical indexes (Laspeyres, Paasche etc.) are only suitable for the measurement of changes in price levels or volumes and explanation of changes in the value in a very limited circle of situations, and are generally unacceptable for this purpose and 2) to try to construct the real indexes
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 111 - 122) | Download | Downloads :430 |
REFERENCES ▼
Allen R. Ekonomicheskie indeksy.– M., Statystyka, 1980, 256 s.
Andrienko V.E. Statisticheskie indeksy v ekonomicheskikh issledovaniyakh, Kiev, Naukova dumka, 1983, 232 s.
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№ 4/2002
Economic mathematical methods and forecasting models
VASYLENKO Yu. , VASYLENKO D.
Changes in the imports from devaluation of a national currency
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2002; 4:93-114 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The theory of international economy only determines the directions of the changes in exports and imports as a result of devaluation of a national currency. At the same time, the National Bank – for correct chaice of strategy and tacktics of exchange rate policy, - and importer – for correct trade policy – need quantitative estimates oof such influences. For that purpose, by analysing power and linear functions of imports demand and supply, the authors obtain quantitative extimates of changes in import indicators with the most probable devaluation rates. They have developed recommendations concerning the policy of the National Bank and that of importers with different correlations between elasticities of exports supply and demand
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 93 - 114) | Download | Downloads :410 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Lindert P.Kh. Ekonomika mirovykh khozyajstvennykh svyazej, M., Progress, 1992, 515 s.
2. Durnburg T. Global Macroeconomics, N.Y., Harper Collins Publishers, 1989.
3. Vasylenko Yu.V. Naslidky devalvatsii dlia efektyvnosti eksportu, Visnyk NBU, 2001, №2, S. 10–15.
№ 3/2015
Forecasting methods and models
VASYLENKO Yu.
The impact of shadow activities on Ukraine’s economic development
ABSTRACT ▼
The problem is to create a model of Ukraine’s economic development, which would reflect the legal and shadow sectors and provide estimates and forecasts of full (legal plus shadow) resulting indicators: GDP, gross income, wages, exports, imports, etc.
And such a causal systemic dynamic model has been created.
On this model, the author made a multivariant analysis of the impact of each type of shadow activities (A) the shadow output of each product increases; B) part of wages is paid illegally; С) material costs are overstated; D) prices of public procurement exaggerated; E) State returns VAT for bogus sales both domestically and for export, F) State returns VAT in bad time or incompletely) and their aggregate effect on Ukraine’s economy. The most influential factors are the level of illegal production (A) and overstating material (С) expenses.
It is revealed that a mere reduction of the amount of shadow transactions without additional economic development would only increase budget revenues and contributions to social insurance funds and pension funds, while reducing at the same time the pace of Ukraine’s economic development. To avoid this, the government should use the budget increase for the modernization and development of both non-financial sector and banking system so the latter can resume its former function of more active and cheaper creditor of the production development.
Keywords: causal systemic model, multivariant analysis, main types of shady activities
JEL: C39, E2, E19
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 89 - 103) | Download | Downloads :654 |
REFERENCES ▼
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