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| НА ГОЛОВНУ | |
№ 3/2022
1Міланська політехніка
ЗАСТЕРЕЖЕННЯ РОСІЙСЬКО-УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ ВІЙНИ: УНИКНУТИ МАЙБУТНЬОГО, ЯКЕ ПЕРЕГУКУЄТЬСЯ З МИНУЛИМ
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 3:7-32 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.03.007 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Російсько-українська війна яскраво продемонструвала загострення зростаючого дисбалансу та нестабільності у глобальному економічному та політичному порядку і аналізується у цій статті поряд з іншими наслідками такого дисбалансу. Фактично стаття надає емпіричні докази нестримного "глобального протекціонізму", уповільнення світової економіки в довгостроковій перспективі та зміни структури глобальних ланцюжків створення вартості. Також її метою було пов'язати ці прояви в історичній перспективі, враховуючи результати попередніх досліджень, в яких застосовувався порівняльно-історичний підхід.
Хоча між сучасною глобалізованою економікою та її історичними еквівалентами існують глибокі відмінності, уроки минулого не мають ігноруватись, оскільки вони здатні допомогти уникнути небезпечних шляхів, які у майбутньому можуть призвести до небажаних для загалу наслідків. Мета статті – започаткувати дискусію щодо критеріїв, необхідних для інформування та розроблення економічної та промислової політики, яка б зважала на серйозність майбутніх ризиків та могла протиставити їм мудрість та виваженість завдяки узгодженим стабілізуючим діям великих країн та міжнародній міждержавній співпраці.
Статтю було опубліковано англійською мовою у відкритому доступі онлайн 4 липня 2022 р. у "Journal of Industrial and Business Economics" ("Economia e Politica Industriale", www.springer.com/journal/40812): Mariotti, Sergio (2022, July 4). A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-022-00219-z
Переклад українською здійснено із дозволу автора та публікується на умовах відкритого доступу на основі міжнародної ліцензії Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Ключові слова:деглобалізація, економічний націоналізм, глобальний протекціонізм,•глобальні ланцюги вартості, російсько-українська війна, світові взаємозалежності
| Стаття українською мовою (cтор. 7 - 32) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 142 |
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10. Ciravegna, L., & Michailova, S. (2022). Why the world economy needs, but will not get, more globali-zation in the post-COVID-19 decade. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(1), 172-186.
doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00467-6
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12. Corden, W. M. (1971). The theory of protection. Oxford University Press.
13. Cottey, A. (2022). The West, Russia and European security: Still the long peace? The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 24(2), 207-223. doi.org/10.1177/13691481211036381
14. Dent, C. M. (2020). Brexit, Trump and trade: Back to a late 19th century future? Competition & Change, 24(3-4), 338-357. doi.org/10.1177/1024529420921481
15. Dezenski, E., & Austin, J. C. (2021). Rebuilding America's economy and foreign policy with ‘ally-shor-ing'. Brookings Institution, June 8. Retrieved from www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/06/08/rebuilding-americas-economy-and-foreign-policywith-ally-shoring/
16. Elia, S., Fratocchi, L., Barbieri, P., Boffelli, A., & Kalchschmidt, M. (2021). Post-pandemic reconfigura-tion from global to domestic and regional value chains: The role of industrial policies. Transnational Corporations, 28(2), 67-96. doi.org/10.18356/2076099x-28-2-3
17. Enderwick, P. (2011). Understanding the rise of global protectionism. Thunderbird International Business Review, 53(3), 325-336. doi.org/10.1002/tie.20410
18. Enderwick, P., & Buckley, P. J. (2020). Rising regionalization: Will the post-COVID-19 world see a retreat from globalization? Transnational Corporations, 27(2), 99-112. doi.org/10.18356/2076099x-28-2-3
19. Evenett, S. J. (2019). Protectionism, state discrimination, and international business since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Business Policy, 2(1), 9-36. doi.org/10.1057/s42214-019-00021-0
20. Evenett, S. J., & Fritz, J. (2020). Advancing sustainable development with FDI. Why policy must be reset. The 27th Global Trade Alert report. CEPR Press.
21. Evenett, S. J., & Fritz, J. (2021). Subsidies and market access. Towards an inventory of corporate sub-sidies by China, the European Union and the United States. The 28th Global Trade Alert report. CEPR Press.
22. Felbermayr, G., Mahlkow, H., & Sandkamp, A. N. (2022). Cutting through the value chain: The long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West. Kiel Working Paper, 2210. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4097847
23. Freeman, C. (1995). The ‘National System of Innovation' in historical perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 19(1), 5-24. doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035309
24. Fukuyama, F. (1992). The end of history and the last man. Free Press.
25. Gaddis, J. L. (1986). The Long Peace: Elements of stability in the postwar international system. International Security, 10(4), 99–142. doi.org/10.2307/2538951
26. Gereffi, G. (2014). Global value chains in a post-Washington Consensus world. Review of International Political Economy, 21(1), 9–37. doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2012.756414
27. Gereffi, G. (2021). Increasing resilience of medical supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. UNIDO Industrial Analytics Platform.
28. Ghodsi, M., Grübler, J., Reiter, O., & Stehrer, R. (2017). The evolution of non-tariff measures and their diverse effects on trade. WIIW Research Report, 419.
29. Gilpin, R. G. (1984). The richness of the tradition of political realism. International Organization, 38(2), 287-304. doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300026710
30. Gordon, R. J. (2015). Secular stagnation: A supply-side view. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 105(5), 54-59. doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151102
31. Graham, E., & Marchik, D. (2006). US national security and foreign direct investment. Columbia University Press.
32. Greenwalt, W. (2019). Leveraging the national technology industrial base to address great-power compe-tition: The imperative to integrate industrial capabilities of close allies. Atlantic Council, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
33. Gregori, T. (2021). Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view. International Economics, 165, 1-13. doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.11.001
34. Grossman, G. M., Helpman, E., & Lhuillier, H. (2021). Supply chain resilience: Should policy promote diversification or reshoring? National Bureau of Economic Research, w29330. doi.org/10.3386/w29330
35. Guillemette, Y., & Turner, D. (2018). The long view: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060. OECD Publishing.
36. Hamilton, D. S. (2022). Advancing supply chain resilience and competitiveness: Recommendations for U.S.-EU action, Policy brief. www.transatlantic.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TTC-Supply-Chains.pdf
37. Hawksworth, J., Clarry, R., & Audino, H. (2017). How will the global economic order change by 2050. Price Water House Coopers.
38. Helleiner, E. (2021). The return of national self-sufficiency? Excavating autarkic thought in a de-globalizing era. International Studies Review, 23(3), 933-957. doi.org/10.1093/isr/viaa092
39. Hoekman, B. (Ed.). (2015). The global trade slowdown: A new normal? CEPR Press.
40. IMF (2022). World economic outlook. War sets back the global recovery. International Monetary Fund.
41. Irwin, D. (2011). Trade policy disaster: Lessons from the 1930s. MIT Press. doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8886.001.0001
42. Karatzas, A., Ancarani, A., Fratocchi, L., Di Stefano, C., & Godsell, J. (2022). When does the manufac-turing reshoring strategy create value? Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management. doi.org/10.1016/j.pursup.2022.100771
43. Kee, H. L., Neagu, C., & Nicita, A. (2013). Is protectionism on the rise? Assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(1), 342-346. doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00241
44. Kennedy, P. (1988). The rise and fall of the great powers. Fontana. doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(88)90030-4
45. Kim, Y. G., & Do Chung, B. (2022). Closed-loop supply chain network design considering reshoring drivers. Omega. doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2022.102610
46. Kiyota, K. (2022). Impacts of protectionism and political conflict: Recent developments. The International Economy. doi.org/10.5652/internationaleconomy/ie2022.25.01.kk
47. Korn, T., & Stemmler, H. (2022a). Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict. Hannover Economic Papers, dp-698.
48. Korn, T., & Stemmler, H. (2022b). Russia's war against Ukraine might persistently shift global supply chains. VoxEU.org, 31 March.
49. Legrain, P. (2020). Will the Coronavirus kill globalization? Foreign Policy, 236, 23-25.
50. Lenway, S. A., & Murtha, T. P. (1994). The state as strategist in international business research. Journal of International Business Studies, 25(3), 513-535. doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490210
51. Link, S. (2018). How might 21st-century de-globalization unfold? Some Historical Reflections. New Global Studies, 12(3), 343-365. doi.org/10.1515/ngs-2018-0024
52. List, F. (1841). The national system of political economy. Longmans. translated by Lloyd S 1909.
53. Luo, Y. (2022). Illusions of techno-nationalism. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(3), 550–567. doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00468-5
54. Mahoney, J., & Rueschemeyer, D. (Eds.). (2003). Comparative historical analysis in the social sciences. Cambridge University Press. doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511803963
55. Menaldo, V. A., & Wittstock, N. (2021). Bidenism as Trumpism 2.0: America's bipartisan embrace of neo-mercantilist policies and what this entails. Available at SSRN 3830957. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3830957
56. Miroudot, S., & Nordström, H. (2020). Made in the world? Global value chains in the midst of rising protectionism. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2), 195-222. doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09781-z
57. Pla-Barber, J., Villar, C., & Narula, R. (2021). Governance of global value chains after the COVID-19 pandemic: A new wave of regionalization? Business Research Quarterly, 24(3), 204-213. doi.org/10.1177/23409444211020761
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