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№ 3/2022
1Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering
A WARNING FROM THE RUSSIAN–UKRAINIAN WAR: AVOIDING A FUTURE THAT RHYMES WITH THE PAST
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 3:7-32 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.03.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Almost immediately after the publication of the article"A warning from the Russian-Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past" in the "Journal of Industrial and Business Economics" (2022, July 4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-022-00219-z), the author - professor emeritus of the Milan Polytechnic Sergio Mariotti forwarded it to the address of our journal to share his thoughts on serious international imbalances, which led, among other things, to a full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and intensified other phenomena - the growth of "global protectionism", the decline in the growth rate of the world economy, and the restructuring of global value chains. Professor Mariotti invited Ukrainian academics and economists to express their opinion regarding these effects of international politics and kindly agreed to translate his article into Ukrainian.
By publishing the Ukrainian version of the article in the journal "Economics and Forecasting" and the first responses to it, we open a discussion and invite all those who are interested to join the discussion on the systemic and problematic issues outlined in it.
The Russian–Ukrainian war is a dramatic effect of the growing imbalances and instability of the global economic and political order, together with other effects that this contribution analyzes. This paper in fact offers empirical evidence of a rampant “global protectionism”, the slowdown of the world’s economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. The paper also seeks to link these manifestations together in a historical perspective, considering the results of previous studies that adopted the comparative historical approach. Although there are profound differences between today’s globalized economy and its historical equivalents, learning from the past should not be precluded, as it can help avoid dangerous paths from being followed that could lead to universally undesired outcomes in the future. The aim of the paper is to open a discussion on the criteria that are needed to inform and develop an economic and industrial policy that is aware of the seriousness of future risks and capable of facing such risks with the necessary wisdom, through the concerted support of the major countries, and through international inter-state collaboration.
Keywords:De-globalization • Economic nationalism • Global protectionism • Global value chains • Russia–Ukraine war • World interdependencies
JEL: F10, F20, F50, F60, N40
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 32) | Download | Downloads :157 |
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