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№ 1/2000
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The characteristic of economic environment and forecast of development of Ukrainian economy in 2000
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2000; 1:28-41 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers the problems connected with the analysis of changes in economic environment of Ukraine, key problems of 2000, guidelines of state economic policy, qual-itative changes in sector macroeconomic proportions of GDP turnover and branch proportions of price redistribution of incomes, as well as the expectations concerning the development of Ukrainian economy in 2000.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 28 - 41) | Download | Downloads :653 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 2/2000
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1, HONCHAR N. , BOHDAN I. 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukrainian economy in 2000
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2000; 2:17-38 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Abstract
In this article special consideration is given to estimation of economic conjuncture as a whole, character of the dynamic of GDP’ branch components, also macroeconomic structural transformation and the rate of their harmonization.
The authors also taking into account possible influence of the main positive and negative factors of economic growth, giving assumptions about the change of economic environment in the country, and also carrying out an estimate of the main Ukrainian macroeconomic indicators for IV quarter and 2000 year as a whole.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 17 - 38) | Download | Downloads :727 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 3/2001
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Reproductional Macro-Structural Processes: Beginning of Harmonization and Forecast for 2002
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2001; 3:25-36 |
ABSTRACT ▼
For the post-socialist economies, a characteristic feature have become considerable distortions in primary and disposable incomes of the institutional sectors which became a macro-structural factor of the economic decay. Among the causes of the distortions are inherited institutional low development, lagging behind with the creation of a system for protection of the interests of market agents and the state which has remained the monopolist in the solution of the question of income distribution and re-distribution.
The article is devoted to comparative analysis and forecast of structural changes in income-based GDP and the degree of their harmonization and approximation to the norm for Ukraine which is determined by the author
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 25 - 36) | Download | Downloads :681 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Systema natsionalnykh rakhunkiv Ukrainy za 1991–1999 roky, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2001, 361 s.
3. Valovyi vnutrishniy produkt Ukrainy za 2000 r. (poperedni dani) , Ekspres-informatsiia Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy za 2000 r, 2001, 8 s.
4. World Development Indicators, The World Bank, 2001, 396 p.
5. Belousov A.R, Abramova E.A. Integrirovannye matricy finansovykh potokov (metodicheskij i instrumental`nyj podkhody) , Problemy prognozirovaniya, 1999, № 6.
6. Groshovi dokhody ta vytraty naselennia Ukrainy, Ekspres-informatsiia Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy za sichen–traven 2000 r.; sichen–traven 2001 r.
7. Biuleten Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy, 2000, №№ 1–12; 2001, №№ 1–5.
8. Finansovi rezultaty pidpryiemstv ta organizatsiy, Ekspres-informatsiia Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy za sichen–traven 2000 r.; sichen–traven 2001 r.
9. Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy tovaramy, Ekspres-dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy za sichen–traven 2000 r.; sichen–traven 2001 r.
№ 1/2002
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Factors of economic development of Ukraine in 2001 and further development prospects
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2002; 1:24-29 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 24 - 29) | Download | Downloads :714 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 3/2002
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukrainian economy in 2002: tendencies and expected results
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2002; 3:9-25 |
ABSTRACT ▼
TENDENCIES AND EXPECTED RESULTS
The author provides characteristics of basic tendencies in Ukrainian economy in the current year and assessment of the principal macroindicators for 2002. Special attention is given to the expectations related to the change in the character of economic processes in the second half of the year (as compared with the first half, when, due to the election campaign, consumption processes prevailed over the investment ones). The article reveals the causes of the present redistribution of the incomes between the institutional sectors of the economy, deflation, growth of the economy’s competitiveness and other important transformations
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 9 - 25) | Download | Downloads :711 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Ekspres-informatsiia Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy “Finansovi rezultaty pidpryiemstv vid zvychaynoi diialnosti” za sichen–traven 2002 roku.
3. Dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy “Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy” za 2001 rik.
4. Dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy “Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy” za sichen–lypen 2002 roku.
5. Dani Ministerstva finansiv Ukrainy pro vykonannia zvedenogo biudzhetu za sichen–lypen 2002 roku.
6. Potochna informatsiia NBU “Osnovni tendentsii valiutnogo rynku” http,//www.bank.gov.ua/Fin_ryn/pot_tend_v/2002/
№ 2/2003
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macrotconomic restructuring in Ukraine: factors and consequences
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2003; 2:66-82 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes transformative restructuring in the distribution of gross available income in Ukraine by institutional sectors of the economy, models of GDP reproduction, basic factors and consequences of major sectoral restructuring which followed various stages of this country’s economic transformation. The author determines the reasons of deep and protracted crisis phenomena and preconditions for a dynamic riding-out from the crisis.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 66 - 82) | Download | Downloads :743 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Natsionalni rakhunky Ukrainy za 1999 , 2000 rr, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2002, 378 s.
3. National Accounts and Supporting Tables Paris, Head of Publication Service, OECD.
4. Statystychnyi shorichnyk Ukrainy za 1997 r., Derzhavnyi komitet statystyky Ukrainy, K., Vyd-vo “Ukrainska entsyklopediia” im.. M.P.Bazhana, 1999, S. 64.
№ 1/2004
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1, SHYNKORENKO T. 2, KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna3, BOHDAN I. 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2004; 1:39-70 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article provides analysis of macro-economic situation in Ukraine as of January 2004 with brief summary and conclusions as regards the peculiarities of the basic factors and trends in this country’s economic development in 2003. Special attention is given to structural processes demand, supply, foreign trade, as well as dynamics of Ukraine’s price competitiveness and pricing processes
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 39 - 70) | Download | Downloads :734 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Statystychnyi biuleten za 2003 rik, Stat. zb. (shomisiachnyy), K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003.
3. Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy za sichen 2004 rik, Stat. zb, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
4. Statystychnyi biuleten za sichen 2004 rik № 1-2, Stat. zb. (shomisiachnyy), K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
5. Vypusk tovariv ta poslug i valovyi vnutrishniy produkt Ukrainy za 2003 rik (poperedni dani) Ekspres-informatsiia vid 1 bereznia 2004 r.
6. Vypusk tovariv ta poslug i valovyi vnutrishniy produkt Ukrainy za sichen 2004 riku Ekspres-informatsiia № 45 vid 13 liutogo 2004 r.
7. Biuleten Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy, 2003, № 12.
8. Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy tovaramy za 2003 rik, Ekspres-dopovid № 40 vid 13 liutogo 2004 r.
9. Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy poslugamy za 2003 rik , Ekspres-dopovid № 39 vid 13 liutogo 2004 r.
10. Dokhody ta vytraty naselennia Ukrainy za sichen-gruden 2003 roku, Ekspres-dopovid № 29 vid 6 liutogo 2004 r.
11. Finansovi rezultaty pidpryiemstv ta organizatsiy Ukrainy za 2003 rik , Ekspres-informatsiia № 50 vid 16 liutogo 2004 r.
12. Investytsii zovnishnoekonomichnoi diialnosti u 2003 rotsi, Ekspres-dopovid № 48 vid 16 liutogo 2004 r.
13. Zarobitna plata ta stan yii vyplaty u sichni 2004 roku , Ekspres-biuleten № 63 vid 26 liutogo 2004 r.
№ 3/2004
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1, SHYNKORENKO T. 2, KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna3, BEVZ V.
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Structural Indicators of Ukraine's Economy (January-July 2004)
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2004; 3:92-114 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors analyze the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine for seven months of 2004 and provide a brief summary and conclusions on the peculiarities of the structural processes, their principal factors and trends, as well as social indicators. Special attention is given to structural processes in domestic demand and supply.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 92 - 114) | Download | Downloads :722 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Statystychnyi biuleten za 2003 rik Statystychnyi zbirnyk (shomisiachnyy), K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003.
3. Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy za sichen–lypen 2004 roku, Stat. zb, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
4. Statystychnyi biuleten za sichen–lypen 2004 roku, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
5. Biuleten Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy, 2004, № 6.
6. Ekspres-dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy tovaramy za 2003 rik", 2004, № 40, 13 liutogo.
7. Ekspres-dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy poslugamy za 2003 rik", 2004, № 39, 13 liutogo.
8. Ekspres-biuleten Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Zarobitna plata ta stan yii vyplaty u lypni 2004 roku", 2004, 27 lypnia.
9. Ekspres-informatsiia Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Rozpodil kilkosti pratsivnykiv za rozmiramy zarobitnoi platy, narakhovanoi za cherven 2004 roku", 2004, № 230, 9 serpnia.
№ 4/2012
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macrostructural factors of the slow down of Ukraine's economic growth
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2012; 4:5-18 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article highlights dangerous changes in the structure of distribution of gross disposable income (GDI) between the institutional sectors of Ukraine’s economy. First of all, it is the redistribution of income in the corporate sectors in favor of the financial corporations through overstated net incomes from property, which leads to lower credit capacity of the companies and reduced investment sources in the real sector with a slow down of the renewal of the pre-crisis level of the generation of fixed capital. A comparative analysis with the OECD countries shows that the overstated credit rates are the main reason of the above mentioned expansion of the financial sector. Secondly, the rise in pensions, which is poorly coordinated with the possibilities of the sector of general government, and the following similarly poorly coordinated increase in salaries in the budget funded sector both lead to dangerous, for the state, distortions in the GDI distribution between the state and population through the increase in the gap between the obtained and paid social transfers. And that tendency brings about a decrease in gross available income of the general government to a dangerously low level and accumulation of the state debt. The author justifies safe and necessary, for overcoming the crisis, GDI levels by the institutional sectors.
Keywords:gross disposable income, institutional sectors, safe level of gross disposable income, incomes from property, social transfers, gross generation of fixed capital, distortions in the structure of gross disposable income
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 5 - 18) | Download | Downloads :756 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Valovyi vnutrishniy produkt u 2011 rotsi, Derzhsluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
3. Kvartalni natsionalni rakhunky za instytutsiynymy sektoramy, Derzhsluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
4. Obsiag vykonanykh budivelnykh robit za periody 2012 roku, Derzhsluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
5. Valovyi vnutrishniy produkt u 2012 rotsi, Derzhsluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
6. Platizhnyi balans i zovnishniy borg Ukrainy 2009 r., www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=66374.
7. Finansovi rezultaty diialnosti pidpryiemstv Ukrainy za sichen–cherven 2012 roku, ekspresvypusk Derzhsluzhby statystyky Ukrainy, http: //www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
8. Detailed Tables and Simplified Accounts, http:// stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=SNA_TABLE1.
9. Revenue Statistics Comparative tables, http:// stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=REV#.
№ 1/2013
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Destructive changesin the distributionof gross disposable income and the guidelines of the state policy to overcome them
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 1:7-26 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author highlights the reasons and consequences of the destructive changes in the distribution of gross disposable income (GDI) between the institutional sectors of the economy in 2012. First of all, it is the high level of net outflow of property incomes from the real sector in favor of the financial corporations due to the high cost of crediting with the effect of decline of the enterprises’ savings causing a decrease in investments in the current year. Secondly, it is the GDP drop in the sector of general state management due to the big difference between the received and paid social transfers with an impact on the accumulation of the national debt. The author emphasizes that a special decline took place in the incomes of the non-financial corporations, which led to an economically dangerous infringement of the basic conditions of GDP reproduction against a background of increased outflow of factor incomes, as well as savings of the financial sector (in the form of debt repayment). The article provides recommendations on the elaboration of a medium-term program of sanitation of the public finances (including measures on "deshadowzation" of the economy and diversification of pension sources together with taking harsh measures concerning not only the volumes of budget deficit, but also the volumes and structure of public expenditures, especially as regards the social transfers for the whole period(up to 5and more years).At the same time, in order to reduce the outflow of property incomes and resumption of the safe saving level of the non-financial corporations, the author recommends introduction of the legal limitation of the interest rates on deposits and credits with the NBU control over and establishment of correcting coefficients on the banks’ contributions to the Fund for Guaranteeing Personal Persons’ Deposits depending on interest rates on deposits.
Keywords:gross disposable income, institutional sectors, safe levels of the sectoral gross disposable income, property incomes, social transfers, gross generation of fixed capital, distortions in the structure of gross disposable income
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 26) | Download | Downloads :1069 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Indeksy kapitalnykh investytsiy za vydamy ekonomichnoi diialnosti za 2012 rik, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
3. Monetarnyi ogliad III kvartal 2012 r., www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=126387.
4. Finansovi rezultaty diialnosti pidpryiemstv Ukrainy za sichen–veresen 2012 r. ta u sichni–veresni 2011 r., www.ukrstat. gov.ua/express/expres_u.html.
5. Monetarnyi ogliad III kvartal 2012 roku, Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy, generalnyi departament groshovokredytnoi polityky, www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=126387.
6. U zhovtni zagalnyi obsiag operatsiy Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy z pidtrymky likvidnosti bankiv stanovyv blyzko 20 mlrd grn, Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy, www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article? art_id=125822&cat_id=55838.
7. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy vstanovyv dodatkovi vymogy do bankiv, yaki berut uchast u tenderakh z pidtrymannia likvidnosti strokom ponad 90 dniv, Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy, 2012, 28 veresnia, http:// bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article;jsessionid=A59AD1D7A3D232E18C81F371DFC90404?art_id= 122240&cat_id=80928.
8. Arbuzov S. Vidnovlennia kredytuvannia golovnyi bil NBU, news.finance.ua/ua/~/2/0/all/2011/04/29/236829.
9. Ofitsiynyi lyst Generalnogo dyrektora Asotsiatsii "Ukrainskyi KredytnoBankivskyi Soiuz" G.I.Olifera Golovi NBU Ukrainy "Shodo vymog postanovy pravlinnia NBU № 327 vid 13.07.2010 r. "Pro zatverdzhennia polozhennia pro nadannia Natsionalnym bankom Ukrainy stabilizatsiynykh kredytiv bankam Ukrainy", kbs.org.ua/index.php?get=19&law_id=3243.
10. Zdeshevyty kredytuvannia mozhe prozore refinansuvannia vid NBU, Ekonomichna pravda, 2012, 26 lystopada, www. epravda.com.ua/news/2012/11/26/346827/.
11. Otsinka stanu platizhnogo balansu u veresni 2012 r., Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy, www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document? id=91917.
12. Analitychni materialy shodo derzhavnogo borgu, Ministerstvo finansiv, minfin.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/archive/main? cat_id=224493.
13. Osnovni tendentsii groshovokredytnogo rynku Ukrainy za lystopad 2012 roku, www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/ article?art_id=100341&cat_id=58038.
14. Groshovokredytna statystyka HBU, www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=44579.
15. OCED StatExtracts, stats.oecd.org/ index.aspx#.
16. Bogdan T.P. Vyznachalni faktory vplyvu na riven vidsotkovykh stavok za OVDP ta ekonometrychni modeli vidsotkovykh stavok, Visnyk Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy, 2012, № 11, S. 17–25.
17. Richni zvity "Rakhunky instytutsiynykh sektoriv ekonomiky", www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
18. Osnovni tendentsii valiutnogo rynku, Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy, bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58039.
19. Srochnye depozitnye vklady, ru.deposits.org/termdeposits.html.
20. "Ku" porosyysky, Sberex.ru, http:// www.sberex.ru/article/20.
21. Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (DIDMCA), www.bos.frb.org/about/pubs/deposito.pdf.
22. PBK daily, www.rbcdaily.ru/2008/ 05/28/finance/562949979038481.
23. Proekt Zakona Rossyyskoy Federatsyi, www.rg.ru/printable/2012/08/22/cbrfsitedok.html.
24. TsB budet ogranychyvat stavky po vkladam, Buffett.ru. Portal ob ynvestyrovanyy, www.buffett.ru/news/index.php? news=5811.
25. Interest, Wikipedia, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest.
26. Mery administrativnogo vozdejstviya, bankor.org/bank/bank0028.php.
27. Proekt Federal`nogo zakona Rossijskoj Federacii "O vnesenii izmenenij v Federal`nyj zakon "O Central`nom banke Rossijskoj Federacii (Banke Rossii)", Rossijskaya gazeta, 2012, 22 avgusta, www.rg.ru/2012/08/22/cbrfsitedok.html.
№ 3/2013
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Disproportions of Ukraine’s gross available income and their impact on GDP dynamics
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 3:21-37 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article shows that, during the period since 2013, in Ukraine, negative structural changes have taken place in the distribution of gross available income leading to a constant shortage of resources in the sectors of general state management and non-financial corporations, and, correspondently, to increasing debt pyramids. The sector of non-financial corporations continues to lose a lion’s share of their potential incomes from property due to excessive credit interests, which leads to weakening of the main investors and makes it investment incapable even for simple reproduction making it intensively increase its external debts, which recently have been four-fold greater, in average quarter terms, than the sector’s savings. As a result, both the investment processes and GDP dynamics are slowed down. The continued accumulation of the government’s liabilities on social transfers has created a constant resource shortage in the state sector and turned the market of domestic borrowing into a government’s domain. The above mentioned developments, in turn, hampers the lowering of credit rates, and supports the mechanism of pumping out the companies’ net property incomes from the real sector to that of financial mediators and further to repay the banks’ debts. Continued growth of the households’ incomes and expenses with the rates higher than those of GDP, without sufficient investments to renew the production only leads gradual loss, by the domestic producers, of this country’s domestic market. Deep and protracted underinvestment of structural changes and economic modernization appears to depend on the economically unjustified policy of raising social standards
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 21 - 37) | Download | Downloads :878 |
REFERENCES ▼
2.Statystychni zbirnyky "Natsionalni rakhunky Ukrainy" za 1990–2012 roky, Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
3.Tablytsi za sektoramy ekonomiky, <stats.oecd.org/ Index.aspx?DatasetCode=SNA_TABLE1>.
4.Oleksandr Arseniuk: Natsionalnyy bank Ukrainy i nadali spryiatyme tendentsii do znyzhennia vartosti koshtiv na rynku. Pres-reliz, <www.bank. gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=1928598&cat_id=55838>.
5.Osnovni tendentsii groshovo-kredytnogo rynku Ukrainy za cherven 2013 roku, NBU, <www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=673396 &cat_id=58038>.
6.Groshovo-kredytna statystyka, NBU, <www. bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=44579>.
7.,Zvit "Osnovni pokaznyky sotsialno-ekonomichnogo rozvytku Ukrainy", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
8.Zvit "Kapitalni investytsii za vydamy aktyviv", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
9.Zvit "Valovyy vnutrishniy produkt u 2013 rotsi", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
10. Zvit "Kapitalni investytsii za vydamy promyslovoi diialnosti za 2013 rik", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
11.Zvit "Kapitalni investytsii za dzherelamy finansuvannia", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
12.Analitychnyy zvit "Zovnishniy borg Ukrainy na kinets pershogo kvartalu 2013 roku", NBU, <www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=71174>.
13.Statystychnyy zvit "Zovnishniy borg Ukrainy na kinets pershogo kvartalu 2013 roku", NBU, <www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category? cat_id=44466>.
14.,Zvit "Naiavnist i stan osnovnykh zasobiv za 2010 rik" , Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
15.Zvit "Indeksy kapitalnykh investytsiy za vydamy promyslovoi diialnosti za 2013 rik", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www. ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
16. Statystychnyy zbirnyk "Tablytsia "vytraty–vypusk" Ukrainy v osnovnykh tsinakh" za 2011 r., Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www. ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
17.Pro stan platizhnogo balansu u I kvartali 2013 roku, NBU, <www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=44579>.
18.Dovidka shodo derzhavnogo ta garantovanogo derzhavoiu borgu Ukrainy na 31.12.2008", Minfin, <www.minfin.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article? art_id=199965&cat_id=103274>.
19.Zvit "Osnovni pokaznyky sotsialno-ekonomichnogo rozvytku Ukrainy", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/ operativ2013/mp/op/op_u/op0613_u.htm>.
20.Informatsiia pro stan vykonannia Zvedenogo ta Derzhavnogo biudzhetiv Ukrainy, Minfin, <minfin.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id= 348825&cat_id=77440>.
21.,Zvit "Zmina obsiagu valovogo vnutrishnogo produktu", Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2012/ vvp/ind_vvp/ind_2012_u.htm>.
№ 4/2013
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Elimination of distortions in the institutional structure of Ukraine’s GAI
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 4:20-32 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author proves, that in Ukraine, in recent years, due to the violation of macro-proportions in the sectoral structure of gross disposable income (GDI), a disinvestment model of economic development has emerged and consolidated, which lowered the competitiveness of the domestic producers leading to increased loss of their presence both on the foreign and on the domestic markets. Further retaining of the low level of GDI in the sector of non-financial corporations leads to the underfunding of the renewal of the fixed assets and threatens with this country’s economic decay even in case of a revival of the international trade. At the same time, the article shows that the considerable decline of the GDI level in the sector of general state management is taking place due to the accumulation of the excesses in the rates of cumulative dynamics of the legally established social standards meant to match the increases in consumer prices, which expands the gap between the volumes of social contributions and social transfers with a corresponding impact on the increase in the sector’s deficit.
Keywords:distortions in the structure of gross disposable income, institutional sectors of the economy, incomes from property, social transfers, capital transfers, subsistence level, social standards
JEL: -
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 20 - 32) | Download | Downloads :772 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Tablytsi "vytraty–vypusk" Ukrainy v osnovnykh tsinakh. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
3. CNR Ukrainy. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
№ 3/2014
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The misbalances of incomes and expenditures in the institutional sectors of Ukraine's economy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 3:20-31 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article continues the author's research on the negative impact of considerable distortions in the institutional structure of gross disposable income on the dynamics of investments and GDP. It is the first time that structural analysis of the balances of incomes and expenditures of institutional sectors is considered by subsectors, which allows to define both sectoral and intra-sectoral misbalances in the generation of gross disposable income. The author shows the main channels of emergence of the above mentioned misbalances, which have led to higher volumes of net crediting in the sectors of financial corporations and households (especially in the subsector of employers), and, at the same time, to the expansion of net borrowing in the sector of non-financial corporations (especially in the subsector of public non-financial corporations) and in the sector of central government. Such an intersectoral misbalance has produced an effect of decrease in the level and efficiency of use of the national gross savings, hindering the economy's recovery from the investment crisis and emergence of a stable tendency of the loss of the positions of Ukrainian producers even on the domestic market.
Keywords: distortion of the structure of gross disposable income, subsectoral break down of the balances of incomes and expenditures of the institutional sectors, property incomes, social transfers, capital transfers, social standards
JEL: E01, E44, E200
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 20 - 31) | Download | Downloads :771 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Kvartalni natsionalni rakhunky za instytutsiinymy sektoramy. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
3. The Global Competitiveness Index data platform, reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2012–2013/#section=data-tables-gcr_pillar3_2012-13-pdf.
4. Valovyi vnutrishnii produkt u 2013 rotsi. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
5. Depozyty, zalucheni depozytnymy korporatsiiamy (krim Natsionalnoho banku Ukrainy), za sektoramy ekonomiky u rozrizi rehioniv. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy, www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=84921
№ 4/2014
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Decline of gross savings in Ukraine by institutional sectors
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 4:0-0 |
ABSTRACT ▼
This article follows the line of the author's previous publications on macro-economic processes. For each institutional sector, the author investigates the influence of positive and negative components on the formation of gross disposable income and gross savings as a development resource revealing the causes of deficits in some sectors and surpluses in others. The article justifies the guidelines state policy on the harmonization of the distribution of gross disposable income between institutional sectors and increasing overall gross savings as the main prerequisites out of the investment crisis.
The author gives a detailed analysis of key factors for macro imbalances leading to a drop in gross savings, investment and GDP in Ukraine's economy. For each institutional sector, the article provides sub-built reports whose resource part consists of gross disposable income with all its positive and negative components, and whose expenditure part consists of the directions of the use of gross disposable income. The above mentioned coverage makes it possible to define the main causes for the formation of deficit in some institutional sectors and surpluses in others, and to justify the guidelines of state policy on the harmonization of GDI distribution between institutional sectors and raise gross savings as the main prerequisites out of the investment crisis.
Keywords: level of gross savings, sectoral structure of gross savings, components of the revenue of institutional sectors, factors affecting the gross savings of non-financial corporations, property income, social transfers, capital transfers, social policy,
JEL: E01, E44, E200
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 22) | Download | Downloads :668 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. CNR Ukrainy za 2001–2013 rr.: [Elektronnyi resurs] / Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. – Dostupnyi z : www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
3. Kvartalni natsionalni rakhunky za instytutsiinymy sektoramy za 2013 r. [Elektronnyi resurs] / Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. – Dostupnyi z : www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
4. Kapitalni investytsii za vydamy ekonomichnoi diialnosti za 2014 rik [Elektronnyi resurs] / Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. – Dostupnyi z : www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
5. Kapitalni investytsii za dzherelamy finansuvannia za sichen-cherven 2014 roku [Elektronnyi resurs] / Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. – Dostupnyi z : www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
№ 1/2016
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macrostructural factors of the investment crises in Ukrainian economy during 1991–2015
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 1:23-40 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.01.023 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article discusses how in Ukraine, during 1991-2015, due to violations of the macro-proportions in the sectoral structure of gross disposable income, as well as errors made in fiscal, social, and monetary policies, preconditions for investment crises were created. The author reveals the causes of falling in gross savings in the non-financial corporations sector and the economy as a whole, which became an important factor of chronic underfunding of the modernization of production. As a result, the degree of wear of the fixed assets grew swiftly soared, and the competitiveness of domestic producers manufacturers fell leading to a constant decrease in their share on both foreign and domestic markets, which created a threat of this country's economic decline even in case of GDP growth in the partner countries for Ukraine's export.
At the same time the article reveals the reasons of a significant reduction of gross national income in the sector of general government with a corresponding impact on the growth of sectoral deficit. The author displays the changes in the sectoral structure of the gross disposable income (GDI) that occurred in 2014-2015, which were a result of the unpopular government's measures with shifting the problems of the government deficit and the unprofitableness loss-making operation of public non-financial corporations to the households. There are conclusions about the guidelines and prospects of the restoration of national investment sources.
Keywords:investment potential, investment crisis, gross savings, gross fixed capital formation, institutional sectors, macrostructural distortions, net borrowing, offshorization of economy
JEL: Е210, Е220, Е270, О110, Е650, Е660
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 23 - 40) | Download | Downloads :1241 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Indicators of the currency market. Statistics. National Bank of Ukraine, the official Internet presence. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=7693080 [in Ukrainian].
3. National Accounts of Ukraine. State Service of Statistics of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
4. Kryuchkova, I. (2004). Structural factors of economic development of Ukraine Kyiv: Naukova dumka [in Ukrainian].
5. Input-output Ukraine. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
6. Report on the sale and stock of goods in retail networks and catering. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
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10. Direct investment (equity). Foreign trade. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
11. Geographic structure of foreign trade for the respective years. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
12. Statistical data, OECD. Retrieved from data.oecd.org/
13. Change in the gross domestic product in the relevant year (quarter). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
14. Output of goods and services for the biennium 2000–2012. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
15. Economic statistics. Industry. The volume of industrial products, works, services, for the years 2001–2011. Economic activity. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
16. NBU Bulletin (n.d.). Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/p19 [in Ukrainian].
17. Change in the gross domestic product in 2008. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
18. Foreign direct investment, equity, of the world economy in Ukraine. Foreign trade. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
19. Nedoshivin, A. The use of economic operators of transfer pricing and the use of offshore companies to evade payment of tax, non-tax and customs duties. Report at the parliamentary hearings. Retrieved from sysanalys.ru/publikacii/deofshorizacia/142-deofshorizaciaparlamentskie.htm [in Russian].
20. Gross Domestic Product by uses. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
21. Final consumption expenditure of households by purpose in the relevant years, State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
22. Industrial production indices by activity for 2013–2015. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
23. Capital investment by economic activity for the respective years. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
24. Quarterly national accounts by institutional sector in the amount of 1–V quarters of 2015. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
№ 3/2016
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macrostructural design of the economies of Ukraine and OECD countries
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 3:7-28 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.03.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents, for the economies of Ukraine and OECD and some non-OECD countries, the results of comparative analysis of the indicators that give the most significant structural characteristics of both economy as a whole and its separate institutional sectors, which allows to identify, step by step, the main factors that affect the formation of the model of GDP reproduction for each economy. The author proceeds from the fact that, in the course of institutional development, there takes place the process of "polishing" of the rules of interaction between major market participants that influence political decision-making on the levels of taxation, social transfers, public investment, the level of public debt and so on. This, in turn, builds a macro-structural design that broadens or narrows the possibilities for growth of economic potential and the country's ability to sustainable growth.
Based on the results of comparisons, the author reveals major structural differences between the economies of Ukraine, OECD countries, China and Russia and proposes to classify the countries into three types: the USA one, where the political and monetary leadership allows an exceed of consumption over production and financing the lion's share of budget expenses due to new borrowings; the Chinese one, where the support of the national currency weakness stimulates exports, but at the same time reduces domestic demand, which results in the situation when the country produces more than it consumes and saves on social transfers and protection of the environment; and the European one as close to the golden middle between those who receive benefits through monetary expansion and those who accumulate foreign currency due to product expansion.
It is revealed that European macro-structural design with a moderate level of GFCF includes a generous social component, especially in Scandinavian countries where the high level of current taxes and social contributions is more than compensated by social transfers, including transfers in kind. This prevents the undermining of the economic dynamics, at the same time contributing to human development (with a positive balance maintained in the foreign trade). To reduce the gap with the leading EU countries in terms of per capita gross adjusted disposable income, Ukraine has no alternative but to converge its macro-structural economic design to the harmonized European pattern.
Keywords: macro-structural design of economy, gross disposable income, gross savings, gross fixed capital formation, general government, non-financial corporations, households, income from property, offshore economy, shadowing of economy
JEL: Е200, Е220, Е230, Е270
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 28) | Download | Downloads :1243 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. National Accounts at a Glance 2015. Retrieved from stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?datasetcode=NAAG&lang=en#
3. IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS ONLINE 1995–2016. Retrieved from www.imd.org/wcc/wcy-world-competitiveness-yearbook/
4. National accounts of Ukraine for the relevant years (1991–2014). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
5. Detailed National Accounts OECD. Retrieved from www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/detailed-national-accounts_na-dna-data-en
6 Grinin, L. E. The Chinese model and the perspectives of the leadership of China in the world. Retrieved from www.socionauki.ru/journal/files/vg/2012_2/043-061.pdf [in Russian].
7. OECD Dataset: Material resources. Retrieved from stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MATERIAL_RESOURCES
8. The availability and condition of fixed assets by kinds of economic activities (KVED-2010). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
9. Kriychkova, I. V. (2016). Macro-structural factors of investment crisis in the economy of Ukraine for the period 1991–2015. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 23-40 [in Ukrainian].
10. The volume change of gross domestic product in corresponding years. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
11. The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016. Retrieved from reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2015-016/competitiveness-rankings/
12. A billion squared. Retrieved from rg.ru/2012/01/23/kvartiri.html [in Russian].
13. External debt of Ukraine at the end of 2015. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=19241238 [in Ukrainian].
14. The prices of offshore revisited. Retrieved from www.taxjustice.net/cms/upload/pdf/Price_of_Offshore_Revisited_120722.pdf
15. National accounts of Ukraine for 2014. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2016/zb/02/zb_nr2014pdf.zip [in Ukrainian].
16. Trends of the shadow economy in Ukraine: 2015. The Ministry of economic development and trade of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/Documents/Download?id=404ea78d-bfcd-46c4-aaaf-1d02a3401871 [in Ukrainian].
17. Size and Development of the Shadow Economy of 31 European and 5 other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2015: Different Developments. Retrieved from www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2015/ShadEcEurope31.pdf
№ 2/2017
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
A macrostructural institutional scoretable of Ukrainian economy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 2:7-30 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents the results of a monitoring of the key parameters of the institutional sectors in Ukraine's economy, united by the author in a macrostructural institutional scoreboard (MIS). The monitoring starts with fixing the changes: in the deficit/surplus of each of the institutional sectors, in external debt for each sector and economy as a whole, sectoral distribution of gross disposable income, gross savings and gross fixed capital accumulation, which allows assessing the fundamental structural changes at the level of economic sectors and the safety of GDI levels of each of them, taking into account the basic preconditions for GDP growth. In addition, the scoretable represents indicators of the GDI components for each institutional sector that reveal the factors behind the increase/decrease of the share of sectors' GDI in total GDI, which allows determining the political factor that has caused the corresponding macro-structural changes and assessing the nature of their impact.
The monitoring also uses important indicators to identify price effects on the realloca-tion of income between sectors, such as consumer price index, basic consumer price index, some of their components, price terms of trade, lending to institutional sectors, etc. Consequently, it covers both macroeconomic structures, and developments in individual institu-tional sectors and in the economy as a whole, which can signal the danger of crisis events.
Keywords: macrostructural institutional scoreboard, sectoral breakdown, gross disposable income, sectoral imbalances, net lending, net borrowing, external debt, lending to economic sectors, general government, non-financial corporations, households sector, fi
JEL: Е200, Е210. Е220, Е270, Е640, Е690
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 30) | Download | Downloads :857 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Macrostructural bottlenecks to growth in EU Member States. Retrieved from bookshop.europa.eu/en/macro-structural-bottlenecks-to-growth-in-eu-member-states-pbKCAH10065/
3. Macroeconomic imbalance procedure indicators. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?p_p_id=NavTreeportletprod_WAR_NavTreeportletprod_INSTANCE_nPqeVbPXRmWQ&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1
4. Ukraine: National Accounts (2009–2015). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
5. Quarterly national accounts by institutional sectors in 2016. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
6. Ukraine's foreign debt. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?showHidden=1&art_id=65613&cat_id=44446#4 [in Ukrainian].
7. Forex reserves. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=7693066 [in Ukrainian].
8. Credits granted by deposit corporations (except for National Bank of Ukraine). Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=27843415&cat_id=44578#2 [in Ukrainian].
9. Guidelines of monetary policy for 2015. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=10465306 [in Ukrainian].
10. Kryuchkova, I. (2015). Misbalances in the distribution of disposable incomes as a factor hindering the economic development. Models for identification of macroeconomic misbalances in Ukraine (p. 110–166) / Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
11. Kryuchkova I. (2016). Macrostructural factors of investment crises in Ukraine during 1991–2015. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 23-40 [in Ukrainian].
12. Detailed National Accounts OECD. Retrieved from www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/detailed-national-accounts_na-dna-data-en [in Ukrainian].
13. Inflation report. (January 2017). Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=742185 [in Ukrainian].
14. Dynamics of the deflator of gross domestic products in 2016. Retrieved from [www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
15. Indexes of physical volume, average prices and terms of trade in Ukraine's foreign trade in 2016. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
16. Consumer price index. Basic consumer price index. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
17. Actual subsidiary level in 2015-2017. Retrieved from www.msp.gov.ua/news/12286.html [in Ukrainian].
18. Minimum wage. Retrieved from index.minfin.com.ua/index/salary/ [in Ukrainian].
19. Households' final consumer expenses by purpose. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
20. Data on amounts of purchase/sale of cash foreign exchange by natural persons. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=7693080 [in Ukrainian].
21. Incomes and expenses of Ukraine's population. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
22. Execution of the budget of Ukraine's Pension Fund for 2016. Retrieved from pfu.spov.com.ua/?p=3479 [in Ukrainian].
23. Creation of additional reserves by PrivatBank caused increased losses in the national banking system in 2016. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=44050759&cat_id=55838 [in Ukrainian].
№ 4/2017
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
European experience of early identification of macroeconomic imbalances: recommendations for Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 4:39-58 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.04.039 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents the experience of establishing a system for the early identification of macroeconomic imbalances and introduction of the procedure for their correction in the EU member states. Considered the main components: methodology, normative legal basis, and results. The author investigates methodological and monitoring materials related to the detection of macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the main indicators of living standards developed in Ukrainian state executive bodies.
It has been proved that official analytical materials are insufficient to identify the main macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the fact that Ukraine has neither a mechanism for responding to identified imbalances nor a system for the prevention of crisis phenomena. The author provides various recommendations on the introduction of mechanisms for the early detection of macroeconomic imbalances and the implementation of systemic measures for their correction.
To monitor the domestic imbalances, author proposes the main indicators of the macro-structural institutional scoreboard; and, to monitor the external ones - indicators of the scoreboard of foreign economic imbalances, as well as indicators for the scoreboards of labor activity and social imbalances. To make decisions on prevention or correction of imbalances, it is proposed to create, at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, a Commission for the Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances whose authorities would include a compulsory expertise (with the right of rejection) of all bills that could provoke emergence or strengthening of macroeconomic imbalances.
Keywords: macroeconomic crisis prevention system, macroeconomic imbalance procedure, macrostructural institutional scoreboard, external imbalance scoreboard, social im-balance scoreboard, labor activity scoreboard
JEL: Е 200, Е 240, Е 600, Е 610, Е 630, E650, Е 6
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 39 - 58) | Download | Downloads :721 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Annual Growth Survey. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/info/publications/2017-european-semester-annual-growth-survey_en
3. Alert Mechanism Report. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/macroeconomic-imbalances-procedure/publications
4. Alert Mechanism Report. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/16624/0/2017+Alert+Mechanism+Report/5495b2cb-7587-4c93-bc67-475b06a9eddc
5. MIP scoreboard indicators. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/macroeconomic-imbalances-procedure/indicators/main-tableslook
6. Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011. Retrieved from eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1407944142061&uri=CELEX%3A32011R1176
7. Methodology. About the indicators. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/macroeconomic-imbalances-procedure/methodology
8. Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on enforcement measures to correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the euroarea. Retrieved from eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1407944383247&uri=CELEX:32011R1174
9. Alert Mechanism Report 2017. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/2017-european-semester-country-reports-comm-en.pdf
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11. The program of activity of Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=248969842&cat_id=247828516 [in Ukrainian].
12. The law of Ukraine on amendments to the Fiscal Code. Retrieved from www.minfin.gov.ua/uploads/redactor/files/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%20%D0%97%D0%A3%20%D0%97%D0%BC%D1%96%D0%BD%D0%B8%20%D0%B4%D0%BE%20%D0%91%D0%9A%2025.10.2017_%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D1%82.pdf [in Ukrainian].
13. Guidelines for the calculation of the level of economic security of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&tag=MetodichniRekomendatsii [in Ukrainian].
14. Technical notes. TPI. Retrieved from tradecompetitivenessmap.intracen.org/Documents/TradeCompMap-Trade%20Performance%20Index-Technical%20Notes-EN.pdf
№ 2/2018
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Factors of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016-2018
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:29-47 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.029 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers the main factors of economic growth in Ukraine, starting with the macrostructural shifts in the incomes of the institutional sectors, which resulted in resumed recovery of the level of gross savings and gross fixed capital formation and allowed to increase the supply potential. The author analyzes the influence of the current revival of investment and consumer demand, and external demand, on the GDP dynamics, as well as the causes of the strengthening of the import component on Ukraine's market.
It is found that, despite the improvement of the companies' financial results, the rates of capitalization of gross savings in the sector of non-financial corporations are not sufficient due to structural distortions in the distribution of income among economic activities with a concentration of financial resources in the mining and quarrying. And the share of net profits of the producers of investment and consumer resources remains small, which reduces their investment potential and solvency.
In turn, the rate of replenishment of the resource base of the banking system from the households' savings is rather weak, since the overwhelming majority of the latter has no money savings at all, and their richer fractions return their savings to banks in a very slow pace. It is proved that uncurbed inflation blocks the achievement of macroeconomic stabilization, and the lack of credits prevents domestic producers from responding adequately to growing consumer and investment demand.
It is emphasized that, by intensifying consumer lending, the banking system has created an asymmetry between the financial support of consumer demand and the weak credit support of the domestic producers of consumer goods, which is reflect-ed in the growth of imports even in the group of food products, where Ukrainian producers have every opportunity to keep their market shares on condition of their loan support.
Hence, the most pessimistic expectations are still related to the potential of domestic producers in terms of import substitution and increase in non-raw exports. Moreover, taking into account the divergence between the companies' needs for credits and lack of motivation for the banking system to open credit windows, further loss in the shares of Ukrainian producers is expected on both domestic and foreign markets, as Ukraine has no tools for their support, and the banking system mainly provides resources for consumers and importers of consumer goods.
Keywords: economic growth, gross savings, gross fixed capital formation, gross disposable income, institutional sectors of the economy, capital investments, capitalization of gross savings, financial performance of enterprises, crediting the economy, domestic
JEL: Е 210, Е 220, Е 270, Е 290
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 29 - 47) | Download | Downloads :1034 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Kryuchkova, I.V. (2016). Macrostructural factors of the investment crises in Ukrainian economy during 1991-2015. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 23-40. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.01.023 [in Ukrainian].
3. Kryuchkova, I.V. (2017). A macrostructural institutional scoretable of Ukrainian economy. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 7-30. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.007 [in Ukrainian].
4. Change in the volume of gross domestic product. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
5. Capital investments in January-March. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
6. Indexes of construction output in January-March 2018. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
7. Indexes of industrial output by major industrial groups for January-March 2018. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/[in Ukrainian].
8. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Capital investments by asset type. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
9. Indexes of industrial output by activities for January-March 2018. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
10. Indexes of physical volume, average prices and terms of trade in foreign trade in goods in corresponding months for January-March 2018. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
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12. Credit costs by statistical accounting data of Ukrainian banks. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=27843415&cat_id=44578#1 [in Ukrainian].
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14. Net profits (losses) of big and medium-size enterprises by industrial activities. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
15. Net profits (losses) by economic activities. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
16. Separate financial accounting. Private Joint-stock Company National Joint-stock Company "Naftohaz Ukrainy". Retrieved from www.naftogaz.com/www/3/nakweb.nsf/0/B72F00DFC0358DD8C2257F5A0043695A?OpenDocument&Expand=2& [in Ukrainian].
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22. Deposits of the households. Monetary statistics. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=27843415&cat_id=44578#1 [in Ukrainian].
23. Business expectations of Ukraine's enterprises in the I quarter of 2018. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=67591193 [in Ukrainian].
24. Whole sale and retail turn over of the enterprises of whole sale and retail trade in January-March 2018. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
25. Wage dynamics in 2017-2018. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
26. Data on average pension repayment. Pension Fund of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.pfu.gov.ua/informatsiya/byudzhet/zvitnist-ta-analityka/analityka/dani-pro-serednij-rozmir-pensijnoyi-vyplaty/dani-pro-serednij-rozmir-pensijnoyi-vyplaty-stanom-na-01-04-2018-roku/ [in Ukrainian].
27. Commodity structure of foreign trade for corresponding periods. State Statistical Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
28. Ukraine needs to repay 24 bln. USD by 2022 as national debt repayment alone. Retrieved from economics.unian.net/finance/10091810-ukraine-do-2022-goda-predstoit-vyplatit-po-gosdolgu-24-milliarda-s-p.html [in Ukrainian].
№ 3/2019
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The rate of gross savings: theory and practice
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 3:7-39 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Scientific justification of the rate of gross savings is one of the key issues in the models of economic growth and a fundamental parameter of economic architectonics in the context of long-term dynamics of growth and structure of total demand. The article aims at demonstrating the genesis of the theory of the rate of gross savings beginning from the classics of political economy to theoretical justifications of the endogenization of the rate of savings in the models of economic growth as well as a detailed consideration of the components of gross savings with the analysis of the factors affecting its level (based on statistical data).
It is exactly the empirical analysis that allows testing the validity of theoretical concepts and determining the correctness of the theorists' conclusions. The author shows a great gap between the classical view of the savings rate as a result of the action of natural law, which leads to self-regulation of the parameters of production reproduction, on the one hand, and the purely rational views shaped during the formation and development of the theory and models of economic growth, on the other.
Empirical studies have shown that the rate of savings and the rate of capital accumulation are different in the economies of different countries and depend on: the degree of government intervention in the distribution of gross disposable income between institutional sectors and in the structure of households by income level, the level of public social transfers, the depth of income misbalances and expenditure of the institutional sectors and, accordingly, their net borrowing and accumulated debt, as well as on the current phase of the economic cycle and quality of the investment environment.
The practical relevance of the study is important to substantiate fiscal policy, especially regarding its impact on the level of gross savings in the non-financial corporations and government sectors, as well as the level of public social and capital expenditures.
Keywords: gross savings rate, optimal level of gross savings, endogenization of savings rate, level of capital accumulation, institutional sectors of the economy, components of gross savings, income distribution, macroeconomic modeling, inequality
JEL: B22, 41; D90; E21, 25, 60
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 39) | Download | Downloads :602 |
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34. Kryuchkova, I. (2016). Macrostructural design of the Economies of Ukraine and OECD countries. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 3, 7-28. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.03.007 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 3/2021
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
FORMATION OF INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS OF ENDOGENOUS INFLUENCE ON THE LEVEL OF GROSS SAVING IN UKRAINE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 3:33-58 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.03.033 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes domestic institutional structural determinants of gross saving (GS) in Ukraine in order to identify the causes of the critical decline in GS and, accordingly, in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in 2019-2021. The diagnosis was made based on indicators of annual and quarterly national accounts of Ukraine with the definition of positive and negative factors influencing GS by institutional sectors, as well as subsectors of nonfinancial corporations and households. This approach made it possible to reveal the hidden causes of the decline in gross saving in Ukraine, as well as the decline in GS capitalization and the deep investment crisis in 2020. The author shows that the shock tariff increase in 2015 provoked a significant redistribution of income and savings between the institutional sectors and their subsectors. It is found that of all structural determinants, fluctuations in the level of GS in the subsector of private nonfinancial corporations are most affected by the changes in the share of gross operating surplus, (GOS) and by the large-scale outflow of financial resources through the property income channel, which varies closely depending on the growth of borrowing. These fluctuations are also affected by zero and abrupt cycles in raising the minimum wage. At the same time, it is proved that the inconsistency of the government's tariff and social policies created a two-fold gap between the statutory social standards and their actual level, which led to significant decline in living standards, especially for the recipients of property income and transfer incoms, turning them into chronic negative borrowers with negative gross saving. This had a negative impact on the GS of the whole household sector.
Deepening the analysis to the level of GS structural determinants of the households subsectors shows that the high levels of GS in the subsector of self-employed workers and the subsector of employers do not correspond to the low levels of their gross fixed capital formation, i.e. a significant share of GS of these subsectors does not become a full source of national investment.
The author outlines the directions for desired changes in the structural determinants of endogenous impact on the GS level in the household sector and proposes a number of government measures that could positively affect the distribution of income between the institutional sectors and subsectors and, accordingly, the level of GS.
The article was prepared within the research project on "Estimation and forecasts of endogenous growth of Ukraine’s economy" (registration No. 0120U105803).
Keywords:structural determinants, level of gross saving, gross disposable income, institutional sectors of the economy, subsectors of the household sector, subsectors of the nonfinancial corporations sector, gross fixed capital formation, social standards
JEL: E21, E22, E25, E27, E64, Е65, Е66
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 33 - 58) | Download | Downloads :360 |
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