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№ 2/2017
TRYPOLSKA Galyna Serhiivna1, PODOLETS Roman 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The biofuels market in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 2:75-92 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.075 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Paper focuses on the present condition of the biofuels market in Ukraine, Ukraine's international obligations regarding energy consumption from renewables by 2020 and possibilities to achieve the set goal. Theoretically, reaching the set goal is possible, but in practice the goal of 10% renewables in the transport sector by 2020 will probably be unachievable. The structure of energy consumption in 2020 is expected to be significantly different from that presumed by the National Action Plan on Renewables until 2020, and less biofuels would be needed to achieve the goal of 10% renewables in transport sector by 2020 than it is set out by the mentioned Action Plan. While maintaining the structure of fuel consumption by road subsector of 2015, in order to provide 10% of energy from re-newables in the automotive sub-sector, about 164 thousand toe bioethanol and 256 thousand tons toe of biodiesel are needed. The abolishment of the mandatory blending of 5% of biofuels was inappropriate, as without this requirement market growth ceased. The measures to enhance biofuels market include reducing the excise duty rate for bioethanol compared with a rate of excise duty on petrol; adopting sustainability criteria of biofuels; expansion of types of biofuels; information campaigns to popularize biofuels; reducing the cost of parking for cars, marked for the use of large volumes of biofuels in municipal parking lots; permit for vehicles marked for the use of large amounts of biofuel to use the lanes for public transport; encouraging the market to sell biofuels with high content of biological components; providing financial preferences for sellers of petroleum products in order to create the infrastructure for blending of biological component of fuel.
The article was prepared within the research project on “Economic policy of the development of integrated energy markets of Ukraine”.
Keywords: biofuel, bioethanol, biodiesel, international obligations, state regulation
JEL: Q 2, Q 280, Q 420, Q 480
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 75 - 92) | Download | Downloads :1077 |
REFERENCES ▼
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№ 2/2018
TRYPOLSKA Galyna Serhiivna1, DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych2, PODOLETS Roman 3, CHEPELIEV M. 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Biogas projects in Ukraine: prospects, consequences and regulatory policy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:111-134 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.111 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper focuses on the potential of biogas use in Ukraine. Regulatory policy options for biogas projects were considered, and economic assessment and assessment of biogas projects' environmental impact were made. The results show that the implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine leads to positive macroeconomic effects beginning in 2018-2019. In 2025-2029, additional GDP growth could reach 0.3%. Despite the fact that domestic consumers do not directly participate in investment processes, in the medium and long-run, all groups of households will have positive impact on the level of real income. Wide-scale implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine would lead to moderate structural changes, mainly causing a slowdown in coal output and use, natural gas mining, and steam and hot water supply. The greatest slowdown would be observed in case of coal whose demand is reduced due to the replacement by solid and gaseous biofuels. The use of biogas instead of burning fossil fuels would save 11.462-19.066 million tons of CO2eq.
In order for biogas projects to become available for medium-sized businesses in Ukraine, governmental internal and external loan guarantees should be introduced; lower interest rates on loans through the cooperation of Ukrainian banks with international and domestic financial institutions should be implemented. The cost of capital needs to be reduced; dissemination of information on the benefits of biogas projects, the priority connection to the grid for electricity producers from biogas, the modernization of electricity grids and infrastructure are needed. And in the long term, compulsory use of biogas should be introduced for agro-industrial companies whose activities are related to the formation of wastes.
Keywords: biogas, CO2 emissions, modelling, regulatory policy
JEL: Q 280, Q 420, Q 470, Q 480
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 111 - 134) | Download | Downloads :1072 |
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№ 3/2018
TRYPOLSKA Galyna Serhiivna1, KYRYZIUK S. 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Development of Ukraine's bioenergy sector in the context of the EU guidelines
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 3:138-159 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.03.138 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The European bioenergy policy is changing dynamically, following the trend of sustainable development. Ukraine, having the significant agricultural potential and following the European vector of development, strongly depends on the European tendencies. Changing the structure and level of demand for bioenergy resources has an important effect on the development of the national bioenergy market and the production policy of agriproducers.
The purpose of this study is to summarize the impact of recent institutional and legislative initiatives of the EU on the development of the bioenergy market in Ukraine and analyze possible challenges in the field of land use in this regard.
The paper highlights the instability of the development of Ukraine's domestic biofuels market. Stagnation in the market for liquid biofuels is mainly a result of regulatory shortcomings. At the same time, Ukraine's exports to the EU markets, due to the scarce and technologically outdated processing capacity, remains limited to bioenergy raw materials. Analysis of the trends in the production and exports of rapeseeds in Ukraine indicates a high dependence on the EU market. A similar situation also persisted in the market of solid biofuels. The main factor of change here was the increase in domestic prices for traditional energy resources in 2015-2016, which caused subsequent changes in the tariff policy. The analysis conducted made it possible to identify key trends and measures to encourage the development of Ukraine's biomass market.
The growing demand for biofuels gradually leads to changes in the structure of land use in Ukraine. However, due to the high level of cultivation in Ukraine, the scale of these changes in quantitative terms is negligible. During 2004-2016, the area of arable land only increased by 0.3%. At the same time, the threats to sustain-able development are not so much related to the general changes in land use, as to structural changes in the field of plant growing. Modeling results indicate a possible increase in the pressure on land resources in the future as a result of the implementation of European bioenergy policy. In the meantime, a milder effect could be achieved by implementing a scenario of limiting the use of the first generation biofuels, which include rapeseed oil: in this scenario, the additional need for arable land might be by one third lower than in the baseline scenario.
Analysis gives grounds for concluding that it is only the types of raw materials used for biofuel production that will change in the future, while both political and market conditions will contribute to the cultivation of new types of raw materials growth for exporting to the EU and for meeting Ukraine's domestic needs in biofuels in accordance with the international obligations incurred. The market policy of Ukrainian producers (mainly of those export-oriented ones) in such conditions can carry certain risks to sustainable development of rural areas. This requires improvement of regulatory policy in the field of land use and development of appropriate mechanisms to prevent the critical use of biomass as the only source of maintaining the natural fertility of soils.
Keywords: bioenergy sector, biofuels, biomass, Indirect Land Use Change, EU
JEL: Q 280, Q 420, Q 480
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 138 - 159) | Download | Downloads :815 |
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№ 4/2020
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
ASSESSMENT OF COSTS ON THE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN UKRAINE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 4:60-71 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.04.060 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper focuses on the main adaptation measures financed in Ukraine at the expense of state and regional budgets region-wise during 2016-2018 within the framework of environmental activities. The source of data was «Environmental passports of the regions» The paper finds that during 2016-2018 the most funded items of expenditure were the construction and repair of sewerage, clearing of riverbeds, repair of water protection structures and wastewater treatment. A significant gap in the cost of measures of an adaptive nature between the regions is established. Expenditures in the Transcarpathian region, which most suffers from floods, were the lowest: they were 46 times lower than expenditures on adaptation measures in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which actively allocated funds for clearing riverbeds and strengthening the river banks. During 2016-2018, almost USD 110 million were proved to be spent on adaptation measures in Ukraine. The main source of funds were local budgets, in particular regional environmental funds. Green bonds are determined to become a promising source of funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine. For the first time, the amount of funds required for adaptation measures in Ukraine until 2050 has been partially estimated. It is proved that the only international funds that can provide funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine in late 2020, is the Global Environmental Facility.
Keywords:climate change, adaptation, financing of adaptation measures, Ukraine
JEL: Q53, Q54, Q57
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 60 - 71) | Download | Downloads :426 |
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№ 2/2021
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
PROSPECTS OF STATE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BIOMETHANE INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE UNTIL 2040
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 2:128-142 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.02.128 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper considers the prospects for the state support for the development of biomethane industry in Ukraine from 2025 to 2040. The main financial incentives for the use of biomass-derived energy are a special tariff for heat from sources other than natural gas, and a feed-in tariff (the auction price in the future). In the EU, biomethane production is gaining ground due to available financial incentives (premiums to the cost of natural gas, and premiums to feed-in tariff). The main obstacle to the large-scale spread of biogas (and, accordingly, biomethane) is the high cost of equipment. The amounts of state support for biogas production with its purification to biomethane and supply of the latter to the gas transmission and gas distribution networks under the conditions of biomethane production in the amounts provided by the draft Roadmap for Bioenergy Development in Ukraine until 2050 were assessed. While maintaining the price of natural gas at the level of prices of 2021 (EUR 0.24/m3), the need to subsidize biomethane production from 2025 to 2040 can reach EUR 0.263-3.5 billion, on average EUR 16.5-217 million per year. Infrastructure expenditures were not taken into account in the assessment. The possibility of electricity output from biomethane was not considered, as biogas refining to the quality of biomethane requires additional funds. The statutory auction price may be sufficient only for certain types of feedstock and for large biogas plants.
The use of biomethane may be appropriate in the transport sector, as biomethane is an "advanced biofuel", and Ukraine already has a relatively extensive network of methane filling stations. Biomethane production in Ukraine will require state support, particularly in the form of direct subsidies to biomethane producers (in the form of premium to the price of natural gas), and in the form of a premium to the auction price. The use of biomethane will partially reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, being also an important element in the decarbonization of sectors using natural gas, replacing up to 0.76 billion m3 of the latter in 2040, which is in line with the global leading decarbonization trends.
Keywords:biomethane, biogas, bioenergy, Ukraine
JEL: Q42, Q48, Q57
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 128 - 142) | Download | Downloads :369 |
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