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Экономика в условиях современных трансформаций

ГАРКАВЕНКО Валентина Ивановна¹, ЕОШОВА Галина Витальевна²

¹ГУ «Институт экономики и прогнозирования НАН Украины»
²ГУ "Институт экономики и прогнозирования НАН Украины"

THE INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT POLICY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 1:107-123

https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.01.107

АННОТАЦИЯ ▼

The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period.
It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment.
A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses.
Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine.
The publication was prepared within the research project on "Transformations in the financing of corporate business in conditions of instability" (State Registration No: 0121U112770).

Ключевые слова:government debt policy, state budget deficit, public debt, debt sustainability, domestic government bonds, external government bonds

Статья на украинском языке (cтр. 107 - 123)

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