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№ 2023/2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Influence of FDI on structural changes in the economy in the context of prospects for post-war recovery of Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 2:33-65 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.02.033 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The recovery of the national economy, which is undergoing great destruction as a result of full-scale Russian aggression in Ukraine, will require attracting not only domestic but also foreign investments. The post-war experience of various countries shows that the inflow of foreign capital contributed to meeting the needs for investment resources for the reconstruction of the economy and its structural modernization. The recent history of the rapid rise of newly industrialized countries also demonstrates that foreign investments enable the transformation of the structure of the recipient economy, and its progress towards higher levels of industrial development.
The purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of the accumulation and sectoral distribution of FDI in the Ukrainian economy, to assess the effects of FDI to change the structure and dynamics of economic growth, and to identify approaches to attracting foreign investment in the context of prospects for post-war recovery and economic restructuring.
The article examines the accumulation of FDI in the Ukrainian economy in historical retrospect, analyzes the distribution of their reserves among the sectors and subsectors, as well as their geographical origin. The author assesses the depth of penetration of the FDI into the economy in general and into the technological sectors within the processing industry, in particular, and reveals various contradictory effects created by foreign investments for the development of the national economy, technological progress, and economic security.
Using regression modeling, the article investigates the FDI as a factor capable of contributing to the transformation of Ukraine’s economy, and changing the structural distribution of added value and employment between sectors. The simulation results confirm that the accumulation of FDI really affects the dynamics of GVA production and employment in economic sectors, that is, it causes structural shifts in the economy. At the same time, sectoral assessments reveal the mixed effectiveness of this factor in terms of the strength and direction of changes in the structure of the economy.
Keywords:foreign direct investments, structural changes in the economy, employment structure, industrial sector of the economy, manufacturing, technological structure of industry, post-war recovery of the economy
JEL: C2, F21, J21, L16, N4
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 33 - 65) | Download | Downloads :69 |
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24. Paul, J. & Feliciano-Cestero, M. M. (2021). Five decades of research on foreign direct investment by MNEs: An overview and research agenda. Journal of Business Research, 124, 800-812. doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.04.017
25. Swapnil, S., Hillemane, M. & Subrahmanya, B. (2020). Growth and Structural Change in the Indian Economy An Analysis of Pattern, Determinants, and Outcomes. Economic and political weekly, 55 (26-27), 65-70.
26. UNCTAD (2022). World Investment Report 2022. International tax reforms and sustainable investment. Retrieved from unctad.org/publication/world-investment-report-2022
27. UNCTAD (2018). World Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial Policies. Retrieved from unctad.org/
28. UNIDO (2020). Industrial Development Report 2020. Industrializing in the digital age. Retrieved from www.unido.org/resources-publications-flagship-publications-industrial-development-report-series/idr2020
29. Acemoglu, D. (2022, Oct. 28). China’s Economy Is Rotting from the Head. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
30. McCaig, B. & Pavcnik, N. (2016). Moving Out of Agriculture: Structural Change in Viet Nam. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik, C. Sepúlveda (Eds.), Structural change, fundamentals, and growth: a framework and case studies (p. 81-124). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
31. Muhlen, H. & Escobar, O. (2020). The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico. The World Economy, 43, 557-585. https ://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12879
32. Lee, K. (2023, Feb. 24). Will the New Industrial Policy Work? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
33. Rodrik, D. (2022, Feb. 9). Reviving Appropriate Technology. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
34. Lee, K. (2021, Oct. 11). China's Loss Can Be Southeast Asia's Gain. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
35. Zhai, W., Sun, S. & Zhang, G. (2016). Reshoring of American manufacturing companies from China. Operations Management Research, 9, 62-74. doi.org/10.1007/s12063-016-0114-z
36. Moyo, D. (2022, Nov. 17). What should jittery China investors do? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
37. El-Erian, M. A. (2023, Mar. 8). Fragmented Globalization. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
38. Zeng, K. & Liang, W. (2022). Chapter 1: Introduction: trade wars past and present: causes, dynamics and consequences. Research Handbook on Trade Wars. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. doi.org/10.4337/9781839105708
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41. Tyson, L. & Mendonca, L. (2023, Jan. 2). America’s New Era of Industrial Policy. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
42. Qian, N. (2023, Apr. 14). Banning China from Owning US Farmland Will Achieve Nothing. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
43. Chellaney, B. (2022, Dec. 4). A spotlight on Chinese debt bondage. The Japan Times. Retrieved from www.japantimes.co.jp/
44. Palivoda, A. (2019, August 16). China, which lacks everything. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine. Retrieved from zn.ua/ukr/finances/kitay-yakomu-vse-malo-320867_.html [in Ukrainian].
45. Havlik, P., Hunya, G. & Zaytsev, Y. (2018, June). Foreign Direct Investments: A Comparison of EAEU, DCFTA and Selected EU-CEE Countries. WIIW Research Report, 428.
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