HOME PAGE Welcome to the site of Economy and Forecasting journal

№ 2023/1

Creative discussions on systemic problems of social development

SIDENKO Volodymyr Romanovych1

1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"

War in Ukraine as a bifurcation point in global development: rhyming with the past versus creating the future

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 1:7-30https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.01.007


In this article, prepared as part of the creative discussion on the problems raised in Sergio Mariotti's paper regarding various global economic aspects related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the author argues that, despite the obvious tendencies towards greater global protectionism, one should not excessively expand the meaning of the term "protectionism" thus concealing the recent trends towards direct government interventionism in the functioning of international markets, which makes the very concept of "free market" increasingly conditional. Turning to the repeatability in the present of certain trends of the past (called “rhyming”), which is another important message in S. Mariotti's article, the author emphasizes the need to consider this phenomenon not as a regrettable and undesirable coincidence, but as a natural consequence of the principle of cyclicality in economic development and the wave-like nature of long-term development trends.
The article proves that one can not overcome undesirable and dangerous global trends just by calling for peace, cooperation and better global coordination based on the established principles of institutionalised world order. That purpose requires a truly global thinking in all without exception centers that shape global development policy, and true cooperation in defining the parameters of the future and in solving global problems of humanity. And this is only possible via the formation of a qualitatively new model of globalization, where economic freedom would become the freedom of free development for all.

Keywords:deglobalization, economic nationalism, global protectionism, global value chains, fragmentation, global interdependencies, K-waves, long civilizational waves, Russian-Ukrainian war

JEL: F13, F20, F52, F55, F60, N40

Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 30) DownloadDownloads :99