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№ 2022/3
1Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering
A WARNING FROM THE RUSSIAN–UKRAINIAN WAR: AVOIDING A FUTURE THAT RHYMES WITH THE PAST
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 3:7-32 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.03.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Almost immediately after the publication of the article"A warning from the Russian-Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past" in the "Journal of Industrial and Business Economics" (2022, July 4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-022-00219-z), the author - professor emeritus of the Milan Polytechnic Sergio Mariotti forwarded it to the address of our journal to share his thoughts on serious international imbalances, which led, among other things, to a full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and intensified other phenomena - the growth of "global protectionism", the decline in the growth rate of the world economy, and the restructuring of global value chains. Professor Mariotti invited Ukrainian academics and economists to express their opinion regarding these effects of international politics and kindly agreed to translate his article into Ukrainian.
By publishing the Ukrainian version of the article in the journal "Economics and Forecasting" and the first responses to it, we open a discussion and invite all those who are interested to join the discussion on the systemic and problematic issues outlined in it.
The Russian–Ukrainian war is a dramatic effect of the growing imbalances and instability of the global economic and political order, together with other effects that this contribution analyzes. This paper in fact offers empirical evidence of a rampant “global protectionism”, the slowdown of the world’s economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. The paper also seeks to link these manifestations together in a historical perspective, considering the results of previous studies that adopted the comparative historical approach. Although there are profound differences between today’s globalized economy and its historical equivalents, learning from the past should not be precluded, as it can help avoid dangerous paths from being followed that could lead to universally undesired outcomes in the future. The aim of the paper is to open a discussion on the criteria that are needed to inform and develop an economic and industrial policy that is aware of the seriousness of future risks and capable of facing such risks with the necessary wisdom, through the concerted support of the major countries, and through international inter-state collaboration.
Keywords:De-globalization • Economic nationalism • Global protectionism • Global value chains • Russia–Ukraine war • World interdependencies
JEL: F10, F20, F50, F60, N40
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 32) | Download | Downloads :138 |
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28. Ghodsi, M., Grübler, J., Reiter, O., & Stehrer, R. (2017). The evolution of non-tariff measures and their diverse effects on trade. WIIW Research Report, 419.
29. Gilpin, R. G. (1984). The richness of the tradition of political realism. International Organization, 38(2), 287-304. doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300026710
30. Gordon, R. J. (2015). Secular stagnation: A supply-side view. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 105(5), 54-59. doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151102
31. Graham, E., & Marchik, D. (2006). US national security and foreign direct investment. Columbia University Press.
32. Greenwalt, W. (2019). Leveraging the national technology industrial base to address great-power compe-tition: The imperative to integrate industrial capabilities of close allies. Atlantic Council, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
33. Gregori, T. (2021). Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view. International Economics, 165, 1-13. doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.11.001
34. Grossman, G. M., Helpman, E., & Lhuillier, H. (2021). Supply chain resilience: Should policy promote diversification or reshoring? National Bureau of Economic Research, w29330. doi.org/10.3386/w29330
35. Guillemette, Y., & Turner, D. (2018). The long view: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060. OECD Publishing.
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37. Hawksworth, J., Clarry, R., & Audino, H. (2017). How will the global economic order change by 2050. Price Water House Coopers.
38. Helleiner, E. (2021). The return of national self-sufficiency? Excavating autarkic thought in a de-globalizing era. International Studies Review, 23(3), 933-957. doi.org/10.1093/isr/viaa092
39. Hoekman, B. (Ed.). (2015). The global trade slowdown: A new normal? CEPR Press.
40. IMF (2022). World economic outlook. War sets back the global recovery. International Monetary Fund.
41. Irwin, D. (2011). Trade policy disaster: Lessons from the 1930s. MIT Press. doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8886.001.0001
42. Karatzas, A., Ancarani, A., Fratocchi, L., Di Stefano, C., & Godsell, J. (2022). When does the manufac-turing reshoring strategy create value? Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management. doi.org/10.1016/j.pursup.2022.100771
43. Kee, H. L., Neagu, C., & Nicita, A. (2013). Is protectionism on the rise? Assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(1), 342-346. doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00241
44. Kennedy, P. (1988). The rise and fall of the great powers. Fontana.doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(88)90030-4
45. Kim, Y. G., & Do Chung, B. (2022). Closed-loop supply chain network design considering reshoring drivers. Omega. doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2022.102610
46. Kiyota, K. (2022). Impacts of protectionism and political conflict: Recent developments. The International Economy. doi.org/10.5652/internationaleconomy/ie2022.25.01.kk
47. Korn, T., & Stemmler, H. (2022a). Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict. Hannover Economic Papers, dp-698.
48. Korn, T., & Stemmler, H. (2022b). Russia's war against Ukraine might persistently shift global supply chains. VoxEU.org, 31 March.
49. Legrain, P. (2020). Will the Coronavirus kill globalization? Foreign Policy, 236, 23-25.
50. Lenway, S. A., & Murtha, T. P. (1994). The state as strategist in international business research. Journal of International Business Studies, 25(3), 513-535. doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490210
51. Link, S. (2018). How might 21st-century de-globalization unfold? Some Historical Reflections. New Global Studies, 12(3), 343-365. doi.org/10.1515/ngs-2018-0024
52. List, F. (1841). The national system of political economy. Longmans. translated by Lloyd S 1909.
53. Luo, Y. (2022). Illusions of techno-nationalism. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(3), 550–567. doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00468-5
54. Mahoney, J., & Rueschemeyer, D. (Eds.). (2003). Comparative historical analysis in the social sciences. Cambridge University Press. doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511803963
55. Menaldo, V. A., & Wittstock, N. (2021). Bidenism as Trumpism 2.0: America's bipartisan embrace of neo-mercantilist policies and what this entails. Available at SSRN 3830957. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3830957
56. Miroudot, S., & Nordström, H. (2020). Made in the world? Global value chains in the midst of rising protectionism. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2), 195-222. doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09781-z
57. Pla-Barber, J., Villar, C., & Narula, R. (2021). Governance of global value chains after the COVID-19 pandemic: A new wave of regionalization? Business Research Quarterly, 24(3), 204-213. doi.org/10.1177/23409444211020761
58. Raza, W., Grumiller, J., Grohs, H., Essletzbichler, J., & Pintar, N. (2021). Post COVID-19 value chains: Options for reshoring production back to Europe in a globalised economy. European Union.
59. Reich, R. B. (1987). The rise of techno-nationalism. The Atlantic Monthly, 259(5), 63-69.
60. Reich, R. B. (1991). The work of nations. Knopf.
61. Rodrik, D. (2017). Straight talk on trade: Ideas for a sane world economy. Princeton University Press. doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc779z4
62. Rodrik, D. (2018). What do trade agreements really do? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(2), 73-90. doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.2.73
63. Ruggie, J. G. (2003). The United Nations and globalization: Patterns and limits of institutional adaptation. Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations, 9(3), 301-321.doi.org/10.1163/19426720-00903005
64. Sacks, J. (2020). The ages of globalization: Geography, technology, and institutions. Columbia University Press.
65. Stiglitz, J. E. (2017a). Globalisation and its discontents revisited: Anti-globalisation in the era of Trump. Norton.
66. Stiglitz, J. E. (2017b). The overselling of globalization. Business Economics, 52(3), 129-137. doi.org/10.1057/s11369-017-0047-z
67. Stopford, J., & Strange, S. (1991). Rival state, rival firms: Competition for world market shares. Cambridge University Press.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511549830
68. Sullivan, J., & Deese, B. (2021). Building resilient supply chains, revitalizing American manufacturing, and fostering broad-based growth. The White House.
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70. UNCTAD. (2013). World investment report 2013. Global value chains: Investment and trade for development. United Nations Publications.
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72. Weiss, T. G., & Daws, S. (Eds.). (2018). The Oxford Handbook on the United Nations. Oxford University Press. doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803164.001.0001
73. Witt, M. A. (2019). De-globalization: Theories, predictions, and opportunities for international business research. Journal of International Business Studies, 50(7), 1053-1077. doi.org/10.1057/s41267-19-00219-7
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2. Bagwell, K., & Staiger, R. W. (1999). An economic theory of GATT. American Economic Review, 89(1), 215-248. doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.1.215
3. Baldwin, R. (Ed.). (2009). The great trade collapse: Causes, consequences and prospects. CEPR Press.
4. Baldwin, R. (2012). Global supply chains. CEPR Discussion Papers, 9013.
5. Baldwin, R., & Freeman, R. (2021). Risks and global supply chains: What we know and what we need to know. National Bureau of Economic Research (No. w29444). doi.org/10.3386/w29444
6. Bate, R., Casey, L. A., Groves, S., & Rivkin, D. B. (2009). ConUNdrum: The limits of the United Nations and the search for alternatives. Rowman & Littlefield.
7. Boaz, D. (1997). Libertarianism: A primer. Free Press.
8. Canuto, O. (2022). War in Ukraine and risks of stagflation. Policy Center for the New South.
9. Chang, H.-J. (2002). Kicking away the ladder: Development strategy in historical perspective. Anthem Press.
10. Ciravegna, L., & Michailova, S. (2022). Why the world economy needs, but will not get, more globali-zation in the post-COVID-19 decade. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(1), 172-186.
doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00467-6
11. Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A., & Ruta, M. (2020). The global trade slowdown: Cyclical or structural? World Bank Economic Review, 34(1), 121-142. doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhx027
12. Corden, W. M. (1971). The theory of protection. Oxford University Press.
13. Cottey, A. (2022). The West, Russia and European security: Still the long peace? The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 24(2), 207-223. doi.org/10.1177/13691481211036381
14. Dent, C. M. (2020). Brexit, Trump and trade: Back to a late 19th century future? Competition & Change, 24(3-4), 338-357. doi.org/10.1177/1024529420921481
15. Dezenski, E., & Austin, J. C. (2021). Rebuilding America's economy and foreign policy with ‘ally-shoring'. Brookings Institution, June 8. Retrieved from www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/06/08/rebuilding-americas-economy-and-foreign-policywith-ally-shoring/
16. Elia, S., Fratocchi, L., Barbieri, P., Boffelli, A., & Kalchschmidt, M. (2021). Post-pandemic reconfigura-tion from global to domestic and regional value chains: The role of industrial policies. Transnational Corporations, 28(2), 67-96. doi.org/10.18356/2076099x-28-2-3
17. Enderwick, P. (2011). Understanding the rise of global protectionism. Thunderbird International Business Review, 53(3), 325-336. doi.org/10.1002/tie.20410
18. Enderwick, P., & Buckley, P. J. (2020). Rising regionalization: Will the post-COVID-19 world see a retreat from globalization? Transnational Corporations, 27(2), 99-112. doi.org/10.18356/2076099x-28-2-3
19. Evenett, S. J. (2019). Protectionism, state discrimination, and international business since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Business Policy, 2(1), 9-36. doi.org/10.1057/s42214-019-00021-0
20. Evenett, S. J., & Fritz, J. (2020). Advancing sustainable development with FDI. Why policy must be reset. The 27th Global Trade Alert report. CEPR Press.
21. Evenett, S. J., & Fritz, J. (2021). Subsidies and market access. Towards an inventory of corporate sub-sidies by China, the European Union and the United States. The 28th Global Trade Alert report. CEPR Press.
22. Felbermayr, G., Mahlkow, H., & Sandkamp, A. N. (2022). Cutting through the value chain: The long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West. Kiel Working Paper, 2210. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4097847
23. Freeman, C. (1995). The ‘National System of Innovation' in historical perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 19(1), 5-24. doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035309
24. Fukuyama, F. (1992). The end of history and the last man. Free Press.
25. Gaddis, J. L. (1986). The Long Peace: Elements of stability in the postwar international system. International Security, 10(4), 99–142. doi.org/10.2307/2538951
26. Gereffi, G. (2014). Global value chains in a post-Washington Consensus world. Review of International Political Economy, 21(1), 9–37. doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2012.756414
27. Gereffi, G. (2021). Increasing resilience of medical supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. UNIDO Industrial Analytics Platform.
28. Ghodsi, M., Grübler, J., Reiter, O., & Stehrer, R. (2017). The evolution of non-tariff measures and their diverse effects on trade. WIIW Research Report, 419.
29. Gilpin, R. G. (1984). The richness of the tradition of political realism. International Organization, 38(2), 287-304. doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300026710
30. Gordon, R. J. (2015). Secular stagnation: A supply-side view. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 105(5), 54-59. doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151102
31. Graham, E., & Marchik, D. (2006). US national security and foreign direct investment. Columbia University Press.
32. Greenwalt, W. (2019). Leveraging the national technology industrial base to address great-power compe-tition: The imperative to integrate industrial capabilities of close allies. Atlantic Council, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
33. Gregori, T. (2021). Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view. International Economics, 165, 1-13. doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.11.001
34. Grossman, G. M., Helpman, E., & Lhuillier, H. (2021). Supply chain resilience: Should policy promote diversification or reshoring? National Bureau of Economic Research, w29330. doi.org/10.3386/w29330
35. Guillemette, Y., & Turner, D. (2018). The long view: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060. OECD Publishing.
36. Hamilton, D. S. (2022). Advancing supply chain resilience and competitiveness: Recommendations for U.S.-EU action, Policy brief. www.transatlantic.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TTC-Supply-Chains.pdf
37. Hawksworth, J., Clarry, R., & Audino, H. (2017). How will the global economic order change by 2050. Price Water House Coopers.
38. Helleiner, E. (2021). The return of national self-sufficiency? Excavating autarkic thought in a de-globalizing era. International Studies Review, 23(3), 933-957. doi.org/10.1093/isr/viaa092
39. Hoekman, B. (Ed.). (2015). The global trade slowdown: A new normal? CEPR Press.
40. IMF (2022). World economic outlook. War sets back the global recovery. International Monetary Fund.
41. Irwin, D. (2011). Trade policy disaster: Lessons from the 1930s. MIT Press. doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8886.001.0001
42. Karatzas, A., Ancarani, A., Fratocchi, L., Di Stefano, C., & Godsell, J. (2022). When does the manufac-turing reshoring strategy create value? Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management. doi.org/10.1016/j.pursup.2022.100771
43. Kee, H. L., Neagu, C., & Nicita, A. (2013). Is protectionism on the rise? Assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(1), 342-346. doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00241
44. Kennedy, P. (1988). The rise and fall of the great powers. Fontana.doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(88)90030-4
45. Kim, Y. G., & Do Chung, B. (2022). Closed-loop supply chain network design considering reshoring drivers. Omega. doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2022.102610
46. Kiyota, K. (2022). Impacts of protectionism and political conflict: Recent developments. The International Economy. doi.org/10.5652/internationaleconomy/ie2022.25.01.kk
47. Korn, T., & Stemmler, H. (2022a). Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict. Hannover Economic Papers, dp-698.
48. Korn, T., & Stemmler, H. (2022b). Russia's war against Ukraine might persistently shift global supply chains. VoxEU.org, 31 March.
49. Legrain, P. (2020). Will the Coronavirus kill globalization? Foreign Policy, 236, 23-25.
50. Lenway, S. A., & Murtha, T. P. (1994). The state as strategist in international business research. Journal of International Business Studies, 25(3), 513-535. doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490210
51. Link, S. (2018). How might 21st-century de-globalization unfold? Some Historical Reflections. New Global Studies, 12(3), 343-365. doi.org/10.1515/ngs-2018-0024
52. List, F. (1841). The national system of political economy. Longmans. translated by Lloyd S 1909.
53. Luo, Y. (2022). Illusions of techno-nationalism. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(3), 550–567. doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00468-5
54. Mahoney, J., & Rueschemeyer, D. (Eds.). (2003). Comparative historical analysis in the social sciences. Cambridge University Press. doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511803963
55. Menaldo, V. A., & Wittstock, N. (2021). Bidenism as Trumpism 2.0: America's bipartisan embrace of neo-mercantilist policies and what this entails. Available at SSRN 3830957. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3830957
56. Miroudot, S., & Nordström, H. (2020). Made in the world? Global value chains in the midst of rising protectionism. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2), 195-222. doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09781-z
57. Pla-Barber, J., Villar, C., & Narula, R. (2021). Governance of global value chains after the COVID-19 pandemic: A new wave of regionalization? Business Research Quarterly, 24(3), 204-213. doi.org/10.1177/23409444211020761
58. Raza, W., Grumiller, J., Grohs, H., Essletzbichler, J., & Pintar, N. (2021). Post COVID-19 value chains: Options for reshoring production back to Europe in a globalised economy. European Union.
59. Reich, R. B. (1987). The rise of techno-nationalism. The Atlantic Monthly, 259(5), 63-69.
60. Reich, R. B. (1991). The work of nations. Knopf.
61. Rodrik, D. (2017). Straight talk on trade: Ideas for a sane world economy. Princeton University Press. doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc779z4
62. Rodrik, D. (2018). What do trade agreements really do? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(2), 73-90. doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.2.73
63. Ruggie, J. G. (2003). The United Nations and globalization: Patterns and limits of institutional adaptation. Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations, 9(3), 301-321.doi.org/10.1163/19426720-00903005
64. Sacks, J. (2020). The ages of globalization: Geography, technology, and institutions. Columbia University Press.
65. Stiglitz, J. E. (2017a). Globalisation and its discontents revisited: Anti-globalisation in the era of Trump. Norton.
66. Stiglitz, J. E. (2017b). The overselling of globalization. Business Economics, 52(3), 129-137. doi.org/10.1057/s11369-017-0047-z
67. Stopford, J., & Strange, S. (1991). Rival state, rival firms: Competition for world market shares. Cambridge University Press.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511549830
68. Sullivan, J., & Deese, B. (2021). Building resilient supply chains, revitalizing American manufacturing, and fostering broad-based growth. The White House.
69. Summers, M. H. (2015). Demand side secular stagnation. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 105(5), 60-65. doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151103
70. UNCTAD. (2013). World investment report 2013. Global value chains: Investment and trade for development. United Nations Publications.
71. UNCTAD. (2020). World investment report 2020. International production beyond the pandemic. United Nations Publications.
72. Weiss, T. G., & Daws, S. (Eds.). (2018). The Oxford Handbook on the United Nations. Oxford University Press. doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803164.001.0001
73. Witt, M. A. (2019). De-globalization: Theories, predictions, and opportunities for international business research. Journal of International Business Studies, 50(7), 1053-1077. doi.org/10.1057/s41267-19-00219-7
74. Wolf, M. (2004). Why globalisation works. Yale University Press.
75. Xing, Y., Gentile, E., & Dollar, D. (Eds.). (2021). Global value chain development report 2021: Beyond production. Asian Development Bank.
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