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№ 2022/2

Economy under the conditions of modern transformations

METOSHOP Iryna Mykhailivna¹

¹Department of Applied Economics Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas

FORECASTING A CITY'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE EXAMPLE OF IVANO-FRANKIVSK

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 2:74-92

https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.02.074

ABSTRACT ▼

The article proposes an algorithm for assessing and forecasting a city's socio-economic development, evaluating its level on the basis of a selected system of indicators on the example of Ivano-Frankivsk, and outlines the main directions its socio-economic development. Despite the significant amount of research in this area, the complexity and scale of current problems, and the need for territorial development of Ukraine justify the need for methodological tools to determine the level of change and the main directions of socio-economic development. To study changes in the socio-economic development of cities, it is recommended to use the method of integrated assessment, as this approach provides information on the overall dynamics of their development, taking into account a wide range of indicators that determine favorable and inhibitory trends.
Regarding the forecasting of further changes on the basis of various dependencies, the ranking of models by the approximation coefficient and by the deviation of the calculated integrated indicator and its predicted value should be applied. This approach to forecasting makes it possible to identify the trend of future changes in the model of approximation, which determines the reliability and accuracy of such forecasting. The assessment of socio-economic development on the example of Ivano-Frankivsk showed a low level of changes in the city's development and their further reduction while maintaining the current situation for the period 2018-2020.
The article also outlines the main directions of increasing the city's development by restoring and increasing industrial production, introducing innovative technologies, and increasing product competitiveness by attracting investment, creating new jobs, upgrading, reconstructing and modernizing fixed assets, increasing production capacity and increasing business efficiency by expanding the market, increasing exports, promoting the introduction of advanced energy and resource-saving technologies, and the use of alternative energy sources. Greater efforts are also needed from cities to attract financial resources through grants and programs and to involve local people in addressing socio-economic and environmental issues, which will improve their well-being and quality of life.
Funding for development programs can be expanded through loans from local governments. Despite the transfer of executive power to local governments and the expansion of their fiscal autonomy, most problems still remain. Therefore, in order to revive the local credit market, it is first necessary to ensure the stability of the political and economic situation in the country and to implement a number of institutional and structural reforms.

Keywords:city's socio-economic development indicator, model, approximation, forecast

JEL: R11; О11; Н75

Article in Ukrainian (pp. 74 - 92)

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№ 2022/2

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