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№ 2022/1
ESTIMATION OF UKRAINE’S LOSSES FROM THE MILITARY AGGRESSION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: A MACROECONOMIC DIMENSION
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 1:8-51 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.01.008 |
ABSTRACT ▼
At the end of March 2022, researchers of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine estimated the potential losses of Ukraine's national economy from the military invasion of the aggressor country. The results obtained are not final, as they only account the situation in the first month of the war. At the same time, they are quite informative in terms of presenting Ukraine's losses and the corresponding challenges this country is facing both in terms of consolidating available resources to protect state sovereignty and in terms of post-war economic reconstruction. The results obtained in the study have been sent to the central government. The paper is published in the journal without some information, which is removed for security reasons.
Keywords: military invasion of the RF, losses of Ukraine's economy, economic reconstruction
JEL: С13, С53, E20, H56
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 8 - 51) | Download | Downloads :395 |
REFERENCES ▼
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43. Costs and resources of households of Ukraine in 2020 (2021). Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
44. Ukrzaliznytsia stopped any relationship with RRR. Retrieved from railexpoua.com/novyny/ukrzaliznytsia-prypynyla-bud-iaki-vidnosyny-z-rzhd/ [in Ukrainian].
45. There is no more rail connection between Ukraine and Belarus. Retrieved from railexpoua.com/novyny/mizh-ukrainoiu-ta-bilorussi-bilshe-nemaie-zaliznychnoho-spoluchennia-kamyshin/ [in Ukrainian].
46. The "rail war" chronicle on the Belarusian railway. Retrieved from railexpoua.com/novyny/khroniky-reikovoi-viiny-na-biloruskii-zaliznytsi/ [in Ukrainian].
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48. Five Ukrainian ports process cargoes without going to sea. Ports of Ukraine. Retrieved from ports.ua/pyat-ukra%d1%97nskih-portiv-obroblyayut-vantazhi-bez-vihodu-v-more-miu/ [in Ukrainian].
49. The enemy struck the Nikolaev port, significant damage. Ports of Ukraine. Retrieved from ports.ua/vorog-zavdav-udaru-po-mikola%d1%97vskomu-portu-znachni-poshkodzhennya-ampu/ [in Ukrainian].
50. The prosecutor's office opened proceedings due to the probable theft of merchant vessels from Berdyansk port. Ports of Ukraine. Retrieved from ports.ua/prokuratura-vidkrila-provadzhennya-cherez-imovirne-vikradennya-torgovih-suden-z-berdyanskogo-portu/ [in Ukrainian].
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doi.org/10.5089/9798400204852.002
2. Fall by 35%. Rashkovan about Volume, as a Ukrainian econome will stand up in war - Interview NV (2022, 20 March). Retrieved from biz.nv.ua/economics/chto-proishodit-s-ukrainskoy-ekonomikoy-vo-vremya-voyny-intervyu-nv-50226235.html [in Russian].
3. Fitch Ratings. Retrieved from www.fitchratings.com/entity/ukraine-80442268#ratings
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6. Losses for Ukraine due to the invasion of the Russian Federation exceeding $ 500 billion - Shmigal (2022, 16 March). Retrieved from interfax.com.ua/news/economic/814088.html [in Ukrainian].
7. The Ministry of Economy was informed when the losses of Ukraine's GDP will begin to count through the war (2022, 14 March). Retrieved from economy.24tv.ua/minekonomiki-povidomili-koli-pochnut-pidrahovuvati-vtrati-vvp_n1904648 [in Ukrainian].
8. During the week in Ukraine, $ 8.3 billion infrastructure is destroyed – KSE. (2022, 17 March). Retrieved from lb.ua/economics/2022/03/17/509961_tizhden_ukraini_zruynovano.html [in Ukrainian].
9. In Ukraine, the scale of destruction from the war was estimated (2022, 22 March). Retrieved from korrespondent.net/ukraine/4459467-v-ukrayne-otsenyly-masshtaby-razrushenyi-ot-voiny [in Russian].
10. In the month of Ukraine managed to attract about $ 4 billion from international partners (2022, 25 March).
Retrieved from www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3439184-za-misyats-ukrajini-vdalosya-zaluchiti-blizko-4-milyardiv-vid-mijnarodnih-partneriv-op.html [in Ukrainian].
11.. Interview of NBU Deputy Chairman Sergey Nikolaychuk Forbes about adaptation of the economy to martial law and Marshall Plan for Ukraine (2022, 18 March). Retrieved from forbes.ua/inside/ekonomika-zvikae-do-voennogo-chasu-zastupnik-golovi-nbu-sergiy-nikolaychuk-pro-padinnya-vvp-dopomogu-partneriv-ta-ukrainskiy-plan-marshalla-18032022-4800 [in Ukrainian].
12. 53% of Ukrainians who had work before the war do not work (2022, 23 March).
Retrieved from suspilne.media/220819-53-ukrainciv-aki-mali-robotu-do-vijni-nini-ne-pracuut-opituvanna/ [in Ukrainian].
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16. As military conflicts affect the economy. Mind.ua. Retrieved from mind.ua/openmind/20173685-yak-vijskovi-konflikti-vplivayut-na-ekonomiku [in Ukrainian].
17. World Bank national accounts data. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=UA
18. Fall by 35%. Rashkovan on how to survive the Ukrainian economy during the war. Retrieved from biz.nv.ua/economics/chto-proishodit-s-ukrainskoy-ekonomikoy-vo-vremya-voyny-intervyu-nv-50226235.html [in Russian].
19. Ukraine: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Cancellation of Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine. IMF Country Report. No. 22/74. March, 2022. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/03/10/Ukraine-Request-for-Purchase-under-the-Rapid-Financing-Instrument-and-Cancellation-of-Stand-514148;
doi.org/10.5089/9798400204852.002
20. The losses of Ukraine's GDP from war will count in April. Retrieved from minfin.com.ua/ua/2022/03/14/82151235/ [in Ukrainian].
21. Interview with Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko by "Forbes" (2022, 14 March). Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/news/intervyu-ministra-finansiv-sergiya-marchenka-vidannyu-forbes-14032022 [in Ukrainian].
22. Losses for Ukraine due to the invasion of the Russian Federation exceeding $ 500 billion - Shmigal (2022, 16 March). Retrieved from interfax.com.ua/news/economic/814088.html [in Ukrainian].
23. Since the beginning of the invasion of the Russian Federation, more than 6.5 million Ukrainians have left their homes, another 3.2 million went abroad - UN. Retrieved from hromadske.ua/ru/posts/s-nachala-polnomasshtabnoj-vojny-bolee-65-mln-ukraincev-vynuzhdenno-pokinuli-doma-eshe-32-mln-vyehali-za-granicu-oon [in Ukrainian].
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26. Ukrainian Light Industry Association. Retrieved from ukrlegprom.org/ua/news/perelik-krytychnogo-importu-dlya-potreb-legkoyi-promyslovosti/?swcfpc=1 [in Ukrainian].
27. Which countries are most exposed to interruption in Ukraine food exports? Special focus. Ukraine crisis (2022, 2 March). Investment Monitor. Retrieved from www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/countries-exposed-ukrainian-food-exports
28. Russia's invasion turns Ukrainian agro -enterprises into food factories to provide the army and cities. Retrieved from
avm-ua.org/uk/post/vtorgnenna-rosii-peretvorue-ukrainski-agropidpriemstva-na-prodovolci-fabriki-dla-zabezpecenna-armii-ta-mist [in Ukrainian].
29. 44% of the most valuable natural areas covered by war. UNCG. Retrieved from uncg.org.ua/44-najtsinnishykh-pryrodnykh-terytorij-ukrainy-okhopleni-vijnoiu-doluchajtesia-do-initsiatyvy-riatuiemo-pryrodu-u-dni-vijny-razom/ [in Ukrainian].
30. Putin and Shoigy want to cut down and sell Ukrainian forests. Retrieved from www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/15/7331529/ [in Ukrainian].
31. Certification of the FCC Delivery Circle. Retrieved from fsc.org/en/newsfeed/no-fsc-material-from-russia-and-belarus-until-the-invasion-ends?fbclid=IwAR2b0khB3bRnkhmqKxgE-MJ547oEvRxrmJmWx95U9lohg1pCUZHgsNoEqa4 [in Ukrainian].
32. Food crisis and BMW without European plants: how the Russian invasion affects the world economy. Retrieved from suspilne.media/220163-vtorgnenna-rosii-v-ukrainu-den-dvadcat-somij-onlajn/ [in Ukrainian].
33. BMW and Volkswagen plants are idle because of the lack of Ukrainian details. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/16/684146/ [in Ukrainian].
34. Joint Statement of Heads of International Financial Institutions with Programs in Ukraine and Neighboring Countries.
Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/03/17/pr2280-joint-statement-heads-ifis-programs-ukraine-neighboring-countries
35. Ukraine will be provided with bread - minister (2022, 17 March). Retrieved from www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-hlib-ukrayina-ministr/31758176.html [in Ukrainian].
36. How many territory of Ukraine needs demining - assessment of the sappers Association.
Retrieved from www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/22/novyna/bezpeka/skilky-terytoriyi-ukrayiny-potrebuye-rozminuvannya-oczinka- asocziacziyi-saperiv [in Ukrainian].
37. Fuel, food, ports: three "pain points" of economy. BBC news.
Retrieved from www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60680634 [in Ukrainian].
38. Agricultural products in constant 2016 prices for 2021 (2022). State Statistical Service. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
39. Winter crops under the 2022 harvest in the regions (2022). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
40. Andriy Yarmak: Global food safety destroyed by a Russian invasion of Ukraine can still kill hundreds of millions of people around the world (2022, 22 March). Retrieved from east-fruit.com/en/news/global-food-security- destroyed-by-russian-invasion-in-ukraine-could-kill-hundreds-of-millions-globally/?fbclid=IwAR2L_ikBxUfMQqKsIAnGf9R7EytsKP_8a5o8ut0lRQ5hxzAOwtEo5LHwQrY [in Ukrainian].
41. To feed the country in a war conditions. As Ukrainian farmers are preparing for the new season (2022, 15 March). Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2022/03/15/684052/ [in Ukrainian].
42. Logistics of martial law: what will be with supplies of fuel and fertilizers. Retrieved from agravery.com/uk/posts/show/logistika-voennogo-stanu-so-bude-iz-postavkami-palnogo-ta-dobriv [in Ukrainian].
43. Costs and resources of households of Ukraine in 2020 (2021). Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
44. Ukrzaliznytsia stopped any relationship with RRR. Retrieved from railexpoua.com/novyny/ukrzaliznytsia-prypynyla-bud-iaki-vidnosyny-z-rzhd/ [in Ukrainian].
45. There is no more rail connection between Ukraine and Belarus. Retrieved from railexpoua.com/novyny/mizh-ukrainoiu-ta-bilorussi-bilshe-nemaie-zaliznychnoho-spoluchennia-kamyshin/ [in Ukrainian].
46. The "rail war" chronicle on the Belarusian railway. Retrieved from railexpoua.com/novyny/khroniky-reikovoi-viiny-na-biloruskii-zaliznytsi/ [in Ukrainian].
47. Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.facebook.com/MinInfra.UA [in Ukrainian].
48. Five Ukrainian ports process cargoes without going to sea. Ports of Ukraine. Retrieved from ports.ua/pyat-ukra%d1%97nskih-portiv-obroblyayut-vantazhi-bez-vihodu-v-more-miu/ [in Ukrainian].
49. The enemy struck the Nikolaev port, significant damage. Ports of Ukraine. Retrieved from ports.ua/vorog-zavdav-udaru-po-mikola%d1%97vskomu-portu-znachni-poshkodzhennya-ampu/ [in Ukrainian].
50. The prosecutor's office opened proceedings due to the probable theft of merchant vessels from Berdyansk port. Ports of Ukraine. Retrieved from ports.ua/prokuratura-vidkrila-provadzhennya-cherez-imovirne-vikradennya-torgovih-suden-z-berdyanskogo-portu/ [in Ukrainian].
51. Russia's war on Ukraine: Implications for EU transport / European Parliament. Retrieved from epthinktank.eu/2022/03/14/russias-war-on-ukraine-implications-for-eu-transport/
52. Slovenia has allowed humanitarian aid cargo without permits. Retrieved from trans.info/ru/viyna-v-ukrayini-ekonomika-biznes-logistika-dopomoga-279148 [in Ukrainian].
53. Poland and Lithuania are looking for the opportunity to limit the movement of trucks to Russia and Belarus. Retrieved from trans.info/ru/viyna-v-ukrayini-ekonomika-biznes-logistika-dopomoga-279148 [in Ukrainian].
54. The Ministry of Infrastructure is waiting for the EU to refuse to issue permits for international road transport to carriers from Russia and its allies. Retrieved from ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/812627.html [in Russian].
55. The number of blokposts on the roads was reduced to 1.5 thousand. Retrieved from biz.censor.net/news/3325535/kilkist_blokpostiv_na_dorogah_zmenshyly_do_15_tysyachi_mvs [in Ukrainian].
56. Four recovery funds have been launched in Ukraine: what is it and how to help. Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/12/683904/ [in Ukrainian].
57. The EU will support Ukraine's restoration after the war: it is decided to create a trust fund. Retrieved from censor.net/ua/news/3328437/yes_pidtrymaye_vidnovlennya_ukrayiny_pislya_viyiny_vyrisheno_stvoryty_trastovyyi_fond [in Ukrainian].
58. The impact on trade and development of the war in Ukraine - UNCTAD rapid assessment (UNCTAD/OSG/INF/2022/1). (2022, 16 Mar.). Retrieved from unctad.org/webflyer/impact-trade-and-development-war-ukraine
59. Ukraine war’s impact on trade and development (2022, 16 Mar.). Retrieved from unctad.org/news/ukraine-wars-impact-trade-and-development
60. OECD (2022). OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi.org/10.1787/4181d61b-en
61. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates / USDA. WASDE-622 – March 9, 2022. Retrieved from www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
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