№ 2021/2
Forecasting methods and models
HLUSHCHENKO Svitlana Vasylivna1, IVAKHNENKOV Sergiy Volodymyrovych2, DEMKIV Sofiia Andriivna3
1National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy
2National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy
3National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy
BANK LENDING IN UKRAINE AND SIMULATION OF CREDIT ACTIVITY BY METHODS OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS
ABSTRACT ▼
The article identifies trends in bank lending to companies and households in Ukraine and considers modeling and integrated mapping of demand and supply of bank loans using the methods of system dynamics.
The article shows that by 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: a) increased dynamics of return on capital (29.7%) and reduced dynamics of interest rates on deposits (6.6%) and loans (14.8%); b) growth of the dynamics of bank loans in general, including the following characteristics: the largest share of the bank loan portfolio is accounted for by loans to economic entities, while loans to households account for 21.9%; loans to households are growing faster compared to the growth rate of loans to businesses; in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending is accounted for by the trade sector; short-term consumer loans predominate in household lending (82%); half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks consists of short-term loans; the share of non-performing loans in the total volume of issued loans remains high (48.75%); c) the deposit portfolio is dominated by household deposits, but in the dynamics there is a tendency to decrease in their share.
Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors present a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks and legal entities and individuals, as well as to forecast the amounts of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks.
From a practical point of view, characterization of trends in banking, modeling the interaction of major participants in bank lending and determining the volume of bank loans using methods of system dynamics will help identify the main factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the current stage of development of Ukraine and predict future dynamics of lending.
Keywords:commercial banks, bank loans, lending to businesses, household lending, bank deposits, trends in the banking sector, models and methods of system dynamics
JEL: G21
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 101 - 127) | Download | Downloads :294 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Naumenkova, S. (2014). Survey of demand and supply balance in loan markets: central bank's experience. Visnyk Kyivs'koho natsional'noho ekonomichnoho universytetu imeni Tarasa Shevchenka – Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Economics, 10(163), 51-57.
doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2014/163-10/10 [in Ukrainian].
2. Davydovych, I.D. (2017). Influence of bank credits on the development of Ukrainian national economy. Rynkova ekonomika: suchasna teoriia ta praktyka upravlinnia – Market economy: modern theory and practice of management, 16(3), 255-265 [in Ukrainian].
3. Korablin S. (2019). The price of the loan. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine. Retrieved from
zn.ua/ukr/finances/cina-kreditu-326704_.html [in Ukrainian].
4. Yurkiv, N.Ya., Hladkykh, D.M. (2019). Development of bank lending to business entities as a condition for sustainable economic growth in Ukraine. National Institute of Strategic Studies. Retrieved from URL:
niss.gov.ua/doslidzhennya/ ekonomika/rozvitok-bankivskogo-kredituvannya-gospodaryuyuchikh-subektiv-yak-umova [in Ukrainian].
5. Irshak, O.S., Leschuk, I.Ya. (2018). Current state of bank lending activity and its impact on the development of the real sector of the economy. Prychornomors'ki ekonomichni studii – Black Sea economic studios, 34, 145-149. Retrieved from
nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/bses_2018_34_32 [in Ukrainian].
6. Zhezherun, Yu.V. (2019). Bank lending to individuals in Ukraine: current state and prospects for development. Finansovyj prostir – Financial space, 2 (34), 4150. Retrieved from
fp.cibs.ubs.edu.ua/index.php/fp/article/view/693/767 [in Ukrainian].
7. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from
bank.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
8. Review of the banking sector of the National Bank of Ukraine (2020). Bank.gov.ua. Retrieved from:
bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/ article/Banking_Sector_Review_2020-02.pdf?v=4 [in Ukrainian].
9. Report on financial stability (2019). Bank.gov.ua. Retrieved from
bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/FSR_2019-H2.pdf? [in Ukrainian].
10. Mortgage rates continued to decline in January - bank survey results (2021). Bank.gov.ua. Retrieved from
bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/Stavki-za-ipotechnimi-kreditami-prodovzhili-znizhuvatisya-u-sichni-rezultati-opituvan-bankiv [in Ukrainian].
11. Manzhos, S. (2016). The situation of bank lending in Ukraine: Current problems and prospects of recovery. Ekonomia i Zarzadzanie, 8(3), 89-97.
doi.org/10.1515/emj-2016-0027
12. Trends in the banking sector. Practical aspects of bank risk assessment: seminar for university professors of Ukraine (2020, June 18-19). Bank.gov.ua. Retrieved from
bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/Banking_2020_for_prof-3_pr_ 2020-06-18_19.pdf?v=4 [in Ukrainian].
13. Forrester, J. W. (2007). System dynamics—a personal view of the first fifty years. System Dynamics Review, 23(2-3), 345-358.
doi.org/10.1002/sdr.382
14. Bala, B., Arshad, F., Noh, K. System dynamics modeling and simulations. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. 2017. Retrieved from
link-springer-com.pva.uib.no/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-981-10-2045-2.pdf;
doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2045-2
15. Sterman, J.D., Burr, I. Ridge, Dubuque, B., Madison, I. (2000), Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill.
16. Wheat, I.D. (2007). The Feedback Method: A System Dynamics Approach to Teaching Macroeconomics: Doctoral Thesis: 04.05.2007. Norway, University of Bergen.
17. Lukianenko, I., Novik, A. (2018). The Dynamic Modelling of Migration Flows in Ukraine in the Context of Globalization. In Proceedings of 18th International Scientific Conference: Globalization and Its Socio-Economic Consequences (10th – 11th October 2018) (part 1 - Economic Impact of Migration, p. 276–281). p. Retrieved from
ke.uniza.sk/sites/default/files/content_files/i_part_final_0.pdf
English
Русский 
Ukrainian 
