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№ 2019/4

Market: forecast and conjuncture


OLEFIR Volodymyr Kostiantynovych1

1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine

Experience of the formation of free trade areas with China

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 4:131-151https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.04.131


ABSTRACT ▼

The experience of the formation of free trade zones (FTZ) of China with the countries of Asia, Oceania and South America is investigated. The dynamics of bilateral trade, as well as changes in the product structure after the entry into force of the FTA agreement, is analyzed. Summarized the positive effects and negative consequences of the functioning of the FTZ with China for the countries of Asia, Oceania, Europe and South America. A forecast is made of possible positive effects and negative consequences for the domestic economy from the liberalization of trade relations with China.
In particular, as of August 2019, China had existing bilateral agreements on an FTA with 20 countries, and the preparatory process continued with at least 20 countries. The purpose of the article was to analyze the effectiveness of the functioning of the FTZ with China for its trading partners, in particular, Chile, Peru, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, Iceland. For the study, data were used for 1999-2017.
Since during 1999-2017 China's economy developed rapidly, all countries that were investigated increased their exports to China. Six out of eleven countries after the entry into force of the free trade agreements increased their exports to China more than in the same period before the agreement. China, after the entry into force of free trade agree-ments, increased exports to 8 of its 11 foreign trade partners.
After the conclusion of the FTA Agreement, the export structure of bilateral trade has become more diversified for both China and its foreign trade partners. This is evidenced by the dynamics of such indicators as a share in the export of 6 major product groups; the number of product groups, export volumes of which were zero, but became not zero; the number of product groups, export volumes of which exceeded $ 1 million, that is, they be-came significant.
According to the criterion of trade balance, China after liberalization received more benefits than its trading partners. In particular, the balance of bilateral trade with the PRC was improved by 4 countries, while for 7 countries, after the entry into force of the FTA agreement, it worsened.
In November 2018, an agreement was reached between the Ukrainian and Chinese parties on joint consultations regarding the prerequisites for the establishment of an FTA. In the Export Strategy of Ukraine for 2017-2021 is noted that "... the initiation of new free trade agreements should be based solely on the basis of studies of economic feasibility ...".

Keywords:People's Republic of China, free trade agreement, liberalization efficiency, export promotion, import's dependence


JEL: F13, F14

Article in Ukrainian (pp. 131 - 151) DownloadDownloads :538

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