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№ 2016/2

Market: forecast and conjuncture


1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine

Ukrainian economy: chaotic and cyclical fluctuations around the long-term growth trend

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 2:86-109


During thirteen of the past 25 years, Ukrainian economy was in crisis, and during the remaining twelve years it was in the state of economic growth. In the scientific community this phenomenon has caused debate: was the frequency of crises and phases of growth a result of the action of random economic shocks or cyclical fluctuations in the economy around its long-term trend of development? Without answering this question it is impossible to develop any forecasts or strategies for future growth of the Ukrainian economy. To solve this problem, the author investigated the dynamics of Ukraine's economy in 1990-2015. As the basis of the research he took the hypothesis that the uneven growth of the Ukrainian economy in the short term was shaped by shocks of external conditions, and in the medium term it was determined by the institutional economic cycles which in turn influenced the formation of the long-term trend of domestic commodity production.
The results of the survey helped gather evidence of the fact that during 1997-2015 in the Ukrainian economy, an economic cycle took place caused by the institutional reforms of 1997-1999 during which the domestic commodity output constantly varied under the shocks of external conjuncture and eventually acquired its own long-term trend of growth. These conclusions made it possible to identify the priorities for future institutional reforms in the domestic economy in order to resume its growth in the medium and long term.

Keywords: economic growth, institutions, institutional economic cycle, shocks of external conjuncture, domestic market, economic reforms

JEL: O400

Article in Ukrainian (pp. 86 - 109) DownloadDownloads :288