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№ 2017/1

Forecasting methods and models


1Sumy State University
2Sumy State University

Modeling the diagnostics of bankruptcy on Ukraine's insurance market based on harmonic analysis

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 1:146-157https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.146


The article focuses on the characteristics and mathematical formalization of an approach to the diagnostics of the bankruptcy of agents on the insurance market. Analyzed the characteristic space of the estimation of the bankruptcy of subjects on Ukraine's insurance market for its diagnosis. On the basis of Irwin method, the authors identify the abnormal levels of time series as indicators of early diagnosis of a bankruptcy. Using Fourier series, a decomposition of systemic constituents of the above mentioned indicators and filtration of seasonal components are performed, short-term forecasts are calculated and a mathematical description of the trend and oscillatory components is made. Formulated various practical recommendations for tactical and strategic decisions at different levels of management of the activities of insurance market agents, allowing the latter a timely adaptation to the possibility of adverse changes.

Keywords: insurance market, diagnosis of a bankruptcy, prediction, Irwin method, harmonic analysis, decomposition analysis

JEL: C650

Article in Ukrainian (pp. 146 - 157) DownloadDownloads :309