HOME PAGE | |
№ 2016/4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Neo-industrialization in Ukraine: are there macroeconomic background and investment potential?
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 4:48-69 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.04.048 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article estimates the level of investment readiness of Ukraine's economy for the new industrialization. Macroeconomic analysis has shown that the lack of investments is caused by significant decapitalization of the economy as a whole and in particular the non-financial corporations. The dominating trends towards reduction of the rate of net savings and the losses of capital reflect the sorry state of the real sector. The instability of financial conditions of the companies causes lack of equity and debt bondage, and prevents them from maintaining a proper level of gross savings, and hence that of gross fixed capital formation.
The high rate of debt bondage of the companies combined with ultra-high lending rates lead to increased costs of servicing and repayment of the debts, payment of property incomes, rise in production costs and consequently reduction of financial results. Such as financial results are the source of savings and the tax base their decrease causes the further reduction of investment resources in the economy and budget revenues.
Due to the long-term shortfall of gross disposable income in the real sector, which was caused by disruption of the economically grounded distribution of income among the institutional sectors and withdrawal of capital from economic turnover owing to shadowing and growing share of the offshore economy, the narrowing of the main sources of the fixed capital formation and shortage of investment resources in the economy happens. As a result, instead of investment progress, which is necessary for the neo-industrialization, there is an investments decline.
The author proposes various conceptual approaches to reviving investments for the transition to the model of economic development based on new industrialization.
Keywords: neo-industrialization of the economy, investment resources, gross fixed capital formation, net savings, gross savings, institutional sectors, net borrowing, capital investment
JEL: Е200, Е210, Е220, Е270, О140
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 48 - 69) | Download | Downloads :991 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Liashenko, V.I., Kotov, Ye.V. (2015). Ukraine XXI: neoindustrial state or "crash project"? National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for economy of industry, Poltava University of Economics and trade. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
3. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (2016). The plan of priority actions of the Government in 2016. Approved by the decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of May 27, 2016 No. 418-r. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/document/249113344/R0418-00.doc [in Ukrainian].
4. Krugman, Paul R. (1988). Deindustrialization, Reindustrialization, and the Real Exchange Rate. NBER Working Paper, May, 2586. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w2586
5. Peres, Carlota. (2011). Technological revolution and financial capital. The dynamics of bubbles and periods of prosperity. Moscow: Izd-vo "Delo" ANH [in Russian].
6. Ventura, Jaume, Voth, Hans-Joachim. (2015). Debt into growth: how sovereign debt accelerated the first industrial revolution. NBER Working Paper, June, 21280. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w21280
7. Aizenman, Joshua, Sushko, Vladyslav. (2011). Capital flow types, external financing needs, and industrial growth: 99 countries, 1991–2007. NBER Working Paper, July, 17228. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w17228
8. Jaremski, Matthew S. (2013). National banking's role in U.S. industrialization, 1850-1900. NBER Working Paper, February, 18789. Retrieved from www.nber.org/papers/w18789
9. Holand, Yu. M. (2013). The experience of industrialization under NEP and its application in modern conditions Voprosy jekonomiki – Economic issues, 10, 109-135 [in Russian].
10. Kriuchkova, I.V. (2016). Macro-structural factors of investment crisis in the economy of Ukraine for the period 1991-2015. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 23–38. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.01.023 [in Ukrainian].
11. Skrypnychenko, M.I. (Ed.). (2015). Model identify macroeconomic imbalances in Ukraine. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
12. Zymovets', V.V. (2010). State financial policy of economic development. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
13. Zymovets', V.V. (2013). The accumulation of capital in the real sector and economic policy of the state. Visnyk Instytutu ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia – Bulletin of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting, 39–46 [in Ukrainian].
14. Bohdan, T., Bohdan, I. (2013). Modeling of the influence of debt policy on the economic development of Ukraine. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrainy – Bulletin of the National Bank of Ukraine, 10, 20–27 [in Ukrainian].
15. Danylenko, A.I., Zymovets', V.V., Shelud'ko, N.M. (2015). The de-capitalization of the financial sector of Ukrainian economy: reasons and consequences. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 4, 7-28 [in Ukrainian].
16. Danylenko, A.I. (Ed.). (2014). The impact of the crisis on the finances of the real sector of economy of Ukraine and ways of their improvement. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
17. Salikhova, O.B., Bak, H.O. (2015). Foreign technology as a determinant of investment and innovation processes in Ukraine. Stratehichni priorytety – Strategic priorities, 2(35), 93-105 [in Ukrainian].
18. Heyets, V.M. (2016). Economy of Ukraine: key problems and prospects. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 7-22. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.01.007 [in Ukrainian].
19. World Bank (2016). Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS
20. UNCTAD (2015). The least developed countries report 2015. doi: doi.org/10.18356/8b32c89b-en
21. Casini, Paolo, Kay, Neil, Pantea, Smaranda, Pashev, Konstantin (ed). EU Structural Change 2015. European Commission
22. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2016). The Budget Of Ukraine 2015. Statistical Yearbook. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
23. World Bank (2016). Gross savings (% of GDP). Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?view=chart
24. UNIDO (2013). Competitive Industrial Performance Report 2012/2013. Retrieved from www.unido.org
25. UNIDO (2016). Industrial Development Report 2016. Retrieved from www.unido.org
26. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2016). Socio-economic development of Ukraine for January-August 2016. The state statistics service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2016/so_ek_r_u/soekru_u/arh_soekru_16.htm [in Ukrainian].
27. Cheren'ko, L.M. (2015). New forms of poverty in Ukraine: the main manifestations and assessment. Demohrafiia ta sotsial'na ekonomika – Demography and social economy, 1, 11–21 [in Ukrainian].
28. "The money should be kept in banks": Holodnitsky showed how odious judge Chaus kept the original "income" (2016). Ukrainian National News Agency, August 10. Retrieved from www.unian.net/society/ [in Russian].
29. How many in Ukraine $. (2016). Financial portal "MinFin", October 21. Retrieved from minfin.com.ua [in Russian].
30. The legend of income declarations. Who has shocked Ukraine there wealth? (2016). Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth, October 31. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2016/10/31/609596/ [in Ukrainian].
31. The people's deputies about 9.2 billion, of which 6.7 billion – in cash, – Gerus. (2016). Censor.net, October 31. Retrieved from censor.net.ua/news/412887/u_narodnyh_deputatov_okolo_92_mlrd_grn_iz_kotoryh_67_mlrd_nalichnye_gerus [in Russian].
32. National Bank of Ukraine (2016). Government bonds in circulation, by principal debt. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/files/T-bills_debt.xls [in Ukrainian].
33. Shums'ka, S.S. (2015). Monetary policy and economic recovery in Ukraine. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 3, 21-41 [in Ukrainian].
34. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2016). The profitability of operating activity of enterprises by types of economic activity. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
35. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2016). Net profit (loss) of enterprises by kinds of economic activities. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
36. The Ministry of economic development and trade of Ukraine (2016). Trends of the shadow economy in Ukraine And quarter of 2016. Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&tag=RozvitokRealnogoSektoraEkonomiki [in Ukrainian].
37. Korablin, S. (2016). Offshore depletion. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine, May 13. Retrieved from gazeta.dt.ua/macrolevel/ofshorne-visnazhennya-_.html [in Ukrainian].
38. Mykola Jankowski is becoming in the West the symbol of Ukrainian corruption. (2016). Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine, July, 16. Retrieved from gazeta.dt.ua/LAW/ [in Ukrainian].
39. National Bank of Ukraine (2016). Interest rates on new loans to non-financial corporations over the proper direction in terms of currencies. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
40. OECD (2016). Long-term interest rates. doi: doi.org/10.1787/factbook-2015-36-en
41. OECD (2016). Short-term interest rates. Retrieved from data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm#indicator-chart
42. Lytvyn, V.V. (2014). Evaluation of the components of national savings in Ukraine: the formalization of approaches and identification of trends. Ekonomichnyj chasopys XXI – Economic journal XXI, 5-6, 52-55 [in Ukrainian].
43. Mylashko, O.H., Piskun, A.V. (2015). A comprehensive statistical analysis of national saving of Ukraine. Naukovyj visnyk Khersons'koho derzhavnoho universytetu – Scientific Bulletin of Kherson state University, 15, part 4, 161-164 [in Ukrainian].
Events calendar
M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
29 | 30 |