№ 2016/3
Forecasting methods and models
SEREBRENNIKOV Bogdan 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Modeling and assessment of long-term development scenarios of Ukraine's nuclear energy
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper presents the results of modeling and comparative analysis of long-term scenarios of the expansion of the generating capacities of Ukraine's Power System assuming decommissioning or extension of nuclear power plants' (NPPs) life. Development of scenarios and model calcula-tions was carried out using the optimization modeling tool "WASP-Ukraine", developed on the basis of IAEA software WASP-IV designed to find the economically optimal generation expansion policy within user-specified constraints. The model "WASP-Ukraine" is based on linear programming technique. Modeling baseline and alternative scenarios made for the period up to 2030 and the base year is 2014.
The study examined six scenarios assuming decommissioning and extension of NPP life in ac-cordance with international practice. The share of nuclear power in electricity production in Ukraine in 2030 under different scenarios varies from 11% to 48%. In the scenarios, which minimize the role of nuclear power, compensation of decommissioned NPP is provided by renewables or by conventional thermal power plants.
Comparative analysis of the scenarios is conducted by four criteria: cost efficiency (average production cost of electricity generated in a power system); environmental sustainability (total emissions of sulfur oxides (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)); reliability of the power system and electricity supply (aggregated loss of load probability (LOLP) and the energy not served (ENS) indicators); provision of power plants with primary energy resources (steam coal). The comparative analysis proved that scenarios assuming extension of NPP life are more acceptable and efficient by all selected criteria comparing to those assuming decommissioning of NPP after their life period. Thus, maintaining the dominant role of nuclear energy in Ukraine's power balance at least until 2030 is justified.
Keywords: power system, generating capacity, nuclear energy, scenarios, long-term development, assessment
JEL: С61, С63, О21, О25
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 94 - 106) | Download | Downloads :628 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Limitations for electricity consuming for the regions. Retrieved from
mpe.kmu.gov.ua/minugol/doccatalog/document?id=245085324 [in Ukrainian].
2. Communication from The Commission to The European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and The Committee of The Regions Energy 2020 A strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy. Retrieved from
ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy/2020-energy-strategy
3. Communication from The Commission to The European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and The Committee of The Regions Energy Roadmap 2050. Retrieved from
ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy/2050-energy-strategy
4. Power Perspectives 2030. Retrieved from
www.roadmap2050.eu/project/power-perspective-2030
5. Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF) 2014–2030. Retrieved from
www.entsoe.eu/publications/system-development-reports/adequacy-forecasts/soaf-2014-2030/Pages/default.aspx
6. Podolets, R., Diachuk, O. (2011). Strategic planning in energy sector on the base of "TIMES-Ukraine" model. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting [in Ukrainian].
7. Diachuk, O. (2015) Projected energy balances. Reference scenario. National security and defense, 1, 1718 [in Ukrainian].
8. Podolets, R., Diachuk, O. (2013). Scenaria for the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources in Ukraine. In Green economy – the way for sustainable development (pp. 78–89). Research Institute of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade [in Ukrainian].
9. Serebrennikov, B., Podolets, R., Diachuk, O. (2015). Assessment of long-term Ukraine's power system generating capacities expansion scenaria with reliability implications. In Sustainable Development – XXI Century: Management, Technologies, Models (pp. 411–423). Cherkassy [in Ukrainian].
10. Action plan for the Ukraine's power system development for 2015–2024. Retrieved from
mpe.kmu.gov.ua/minugol/doccatalog/document?id=244996563 [in Ukrainian].
11. National action plan for the reduction of big combustion plants' emissions. Retrieved from
mpe.kmu.gov.ua/minugol/doccatalog/document?id=244996563 [in Ukrainian].
12. Cost drivers for the assessment of nuclear power plant life extension. Retrieved from
www-pub.iaea.org/books/IAEABooks/6590/Cost-Drivers-for-the-Assessment-of-Nuclear-Power-Plant-Life-Extension
13. Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities. Retrieved from
www.world-nuclear.org/info/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/decommissioning-nuclear-facilities/
14. Energy strategy of Ukraine till 2030. Retrieved from
zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/n0002120-13 [in Ukrainian].
15. National renewable energy action plan till 2020. Retrieved from
zakon4.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/902-2014-%D1%80#n10 [in Ukrainian].
16. Perspectives of renewable energy development in Ukraine till 2030 "REMAP 2030". Retrieved from
saee.gov.ua/sites/default/files/UKR%20IRENA%20REMAP%20_%202015.pdf [in Ukrainian].
17. Low-Emission Development Strategies (LEDS): Technical, Institutional and Policy Lessons. Retrieved from
www.oecd.org/env/cc/46553489.pdf
18. Low-Emission Development Strategies and Plans (LEDS). Retrieved from
mitigationpartnership.net/low-emission-development-strategies-and-plans-leds-0
English
Русский 
Ukrainian 
