№ 2016/1
Forecasting methods and models
DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukraine's contribution to the new Global agreement on climate change
ABSTRACT ▼
The article shows that Ukraine's participation in the new global climate agreement (Paris Agreement) has a great potential for the country, including financial, technological, intellectual and other benefits. The reason is that the agreement is aimed at raising, by 2025, at least 100 bn USD, from which Ukraine can benefit to modernize the economy, increase welfare and take the path of low-emission development. This path provides a permanent growth capability for the economy without an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and impact on the environment, which is referred to as "decoupling".
Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, Ukraine, like other countries, submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), which stipulates the goal of not exceeding, 60% of country's 1990 level of GHG emissions in 2030. The article proves that such a goal is not enough ambitious, because Ukraine can reach it with a minimal effort. Ukraine has a great potential to reduce GHG emissions to 35-40% of 1990 level by 2030, although for its implementation, considerable investments are needed (from 75 to 100 bn EUR by 2030). Insufficient justification of the commitments (targets) may become an obstacle to attracting enough investments. Therefore, Ukraine should reconsider its commitments under the Paris Agreement before it enters into force.
At the same time, it should be noted that Ukraine to a great extent accounted for the principle of fairness in defining its INDC targets (at least at this stage), because, since 1990, country has made a significant contribution to reducing global GHG emissions, although it was accompanied by significant GDP and output decline. In addition, analysis of the INDC objectives of the large GHG emitters shows that their commitments allow them to significantly increase global emissions.
Keywords: climate change, a new global climate treaty, Paris Agreement, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, low-emission development, greenhouse gas emissions, decoupling, forecasting, TIMES-Ukraine model
JEL: O19, O21
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 129 - 141) | Download | Downloads :803 |
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