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№ 2015/3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Monetary policy and recovery of economic growth in Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2015; 3:21-41 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2015.03.021 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with international experience and methods of central banks that contributed to the economic development of their countries. The author provides an analysis of principles and results of the current monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in the context of the opportunities for monetary support of economic recovery. It is shown that the peculiarities of modern monetary policy in Ukraine and in particular the qualitative change in the nature of the hryvnia’s emission led to decreased amount of real money in the economy, slower lending, lower confidence and growing inflation expectations. To analyze the stabilization function of monetary policy, the author estimates potential GDP (trend 1993–2014), obtained with Hodrika – Prescott filter by separating the trend and cyclical components. To assess the impact of the changes in the real money supply on real GDP rate, the author carried out model based calculations, which, based on elasticity coefficient, made it possible to obtain estimates of GDP in 2015. The article justifies the necessity of adjustment of the current policy and identifies various guidelines, which, within the implementation of inflation targeting, would not raise the price dynamics but rather support economic growth.
Keywords: economic growth, monetary policy, money supply, inflation targeting, forecast
JEL: E27, E42, E43, E52
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 21 - 41) | Download | Downloads :955 |
REFERENCES ▼
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6. Bloomfield, Arthur I. (1957). Some Problems of Central Banking in Underdeveloped Countries. The Journal of Finance, 12 (2), 190-204. doi: doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1957.tb04130.x
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9. Inflation Targeting and the IMF. International Monetary Fund (2006). Retrieved from www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2006/031606.pdf
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12. Gorjunov, E., Trunin, P. (2013). The Bank of Russia at a crossroads: whether to ease monetary policy? Voprosy jekonomiki – Economy questions, 6, 1-16 [in Russian].
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19. Bukovyns'kyj, S., Unkovs'ka, T., Dzhus, M. (2015). The issue of the development strategy to overcome the monetary crisis stagflation. Ekonomika Ukrayiny – Economy of Ukraine, 8.
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21. Korablin, S. (2015). Monetary policy: the problem of target. Zerkalo nedeli. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine, 7. Retrieved from gazeta.zn.ua/macrolevel/monetarnaya-politika-problema-celevyh-orientirov-_.html [in Russian].
22. Jepshtejn, D., Jeland, Je. Development of alternatives to the neo-liberal approach to monetary policy. Retrieved from www.icss.ac.ru/research/dkp/central_banks.php [in Russian].
23. The complex program of development of the financial sector of Ukraine till 2020. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=19452983 [in Ukrainian].
24. The monetary policy strategy for 2016-2020. Proposals of the Board of the NBU the Main principles of monetary policy. Presentation. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved August 27, 2015, from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=20985218 [in Ukrainian].
25. The resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine dated 18 August 2015 No. 541 "On the Main principles of monetary policy for 2016-2020". Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=20985217 [in Ukrainian].
26. The letter of intent dated 27.02.2015. The conditions of the International monetary Fund under the extended financing facility (EFF) in 2015. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=10315035 [in Ukrainian].
27. The letter of intent (EFF) dated 21.07.2015. Terms of the program of the International monetary fund are within the framework of Mechanism of the extended financing (EFF) in 2015. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=20163929 [in Ukrainian].
28. Business expectations of enterprises of Ukraine. II quarter in 2015. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58374 [in Ukrainian].
29. Money-and-credit and financial statistics. National bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=65833&cat_id=44578 [in Ukrainian].
30. Nearly 50% of the Ukrainian economy appeared in a shadow. Retrieved from business.vesti-ukr.com/110979-pochti-50-jekonomiki-okazalos-v-teni [in Russian].
31. Shumska, S.S. (2015). Interconnection Between the Imbalances in Ukraine's Financial Sector. Ekonomichna teoriia – Economic Theory, 1, 74-88 [in Ukrainian].
32. Skolotjanyj, Ju., Samaeva, Ju. (2015). Gontareva V.: "These states and this so-called oligarchy – exaggerated bubbles". Zerkalo nedeli. Ukraina – Mirror of week. Ukraine, 36-37. Retrieved from gazeta.zn.ua/macrolevel/valeriya-gontareva-eti-sostoyaniya-i-eta-tak-nazyvaemaya-oligarhiya-dutye-puzyri-_.html [in Russian].
33. Basic currency market tendencies. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58039 [in Ukrainian].
34. Basic money-and-credit market tendencies. These operative NBU. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58038 [in Ukrainian].
35. Kornyliuk, R. Renking of banks after the level of support from NBU. Retrieved from forbes.net.ua/ua/business/1397305-renking-bankiv-za-rivnem-pidtrimki-vid-nbu [in Ukrainian].
36. Instruments of monetary politics. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=85380&cat_id=107576 [in Ukrainian].
37. Gorjunov, E., Drobyshevskij, S., Trunin, P. (2015). Monetary policy and Bank of Russia: strategy and tactics. Voprosy jekonomiki – Economy questions, 4, 53-85 [in Russian].
38. Press releases of GfK Ukraine. Retrieved from www.gfk.com/press-room/press-releases/
39. Sociological questioning of Razumkov Center for March in 2015. Retrieved from www.uceps.org/ukr/poll.php?poll_id=406 [in Ukrainian].
40. An institute of trust in the coordinates of economic space-time (2012). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
41. Shumska, S.S. (2013). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through" and Monetary Policy in Ukraine. Visnyk Instytutu ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia – Bulletin of Institute for Economics and Forecasting, 51-58 [in Ukrainian].
42. Calvo, G., Reinhart, C. Fixing for your Life. Retrieved from core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6501766.pdf
43. Monetary policy purposes: review of the legislation of the central banks (2013). Analiticheskaja serija IKSI – ICSS analytical series, 60. Retrieved from www.icss.ac.ru/anseries [in Russian].
44. Svensson, L.E.O. (2000). Open-Economy Inflation Targeting. NBER Working Paper, 6545. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w6545
2. Mishkin, F. (2009). Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science? Deutsche Bundesbank, Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years: Experiences and Lessons. London: Routledge, 81-107.
3. Goodhart, C.A.E. (2014). Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro-Area Crisis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 378-382. doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.08.014
4. Drobyshevskij, S.M., Trunin, P.V. (2014). Evolution of the theory and practice of a monetary policy as a result of a global economic crisis. Zhurnal Novoj jekonomicheskoj associacii – The Magazine of New economic association, 4, 141-158 [in Russian].
5. Gambacorta, L., Signoretti, F.M. (2013). Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind? An Analysis Based on a DSGE Model with Banking. BIS Working Papers. Monetary and Economic Department, 418. doi: doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2293882
6. Bloomfield, Arthur I. (1957). Some Problems of Central Banking in Underdeveloped Countries. The Journal of Finance, 12 (2), 190-204. doi: doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1957.tb04130.x
7. Brimmer, Andrew F. (1971). Central Banking and Economic Development: The Record of Innovation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 3 (4), 780-792. doi: doi.org/10.2307/1991416
8. Central Banks as Agents of Economic Development (2006). UNI-WIDER Research Paper, 2006/54. Retrieved from scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1083&context=peri_workingpapers
9. Inflation Targeting and the IMF. International Monetary Fund (2006). Retrieved from www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2006/031606.pdf
10. Peterson, T. (2004). The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance. Retrieved from www.suerf.org/docx/s_afdec7005cc9f14302cd0474fd0f3c96_1031_suerf.pdf
11. Bernanke, Ben S., Laubach, Thomas, Posen, Adam S. and Mishkin, Frederic S. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience. Princeton, N J: Princeton University Press.
12. Gorjunov, E., Trunin, P. (2013). The Bank of Russia at a crossroads: whether to ease monetary policy? Voprosy jekonomiki – Economy questions, 6, 1-16 [in Russian].
13. Yudaeva, Ksenia (2014). On the Opportunities, Targets and Mechanisms of Monetary Policy under the Current Conditions Voprosy jekonomiki – Economy questions, 9, 4-12 [in Russian].
14. Kliment'ev, M. (2015). The Central Bank and Vasilisa Premudraja or Deflation under the mask]. Jekspert – Expert. Retrieved from expert.ru/2015/08/10/tsb-i-vasilisa-premudraya-ili-deflyatsiya-pod-maskoj/ [in Russian].
15. Polterovich, V. (1996). Transformational recession in Russia. Jekonomika i matematicheskie metody – Economics and mathematical methods, 32:1, 54-69 [in Russian].
16. Blinov, S. (2015). A good example for CB. Expert Online – Expert Online. Retrieved 15 July 2015 from expert.ru/2015/07/15/horoshij-primer-dlya-tsb/ [in Russian].
17. Apokin, A.Ju., Belousov, D.R., Goloshhapova, I.O., Ipatova, I.B., Solncev, O.G. (2014). On the fundamental deficiencies of current monetary policy. Voprosy jekonomiki – Economy questions, 12, 80-100 [in Russian].
18. Bukovyns'kyj, S., Unkovs'ka, T. (2014). On the issue of the optimization of the monetary policy strategy of the National bank of Ukraine. Ekonomichna teoriia – Economic theory, 2, 70-85 [in Ukrainian].
19. Bukovyns'kyj, S., Unkovs'ka, T., Dzhus, M. (2015). The issue of the development strategy to overcome the monetary crisis stagflation. Ekonomika Ukrayiny – Economy of Ukraine, 8.
20. Hrytsenko, A.A., Krychevs'ka, T.O., Petryk, O.I. (2008). Institute inflation targeting: international experience and prospects for implementation in Ukraine. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, [in Ukrainian].
21. Korablin, S. (2015). Monetary policy: the problem of target. Zerkalo nedeli. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine, 7. Retrieved from gazeta.zn.ua/macrolevel/monetarnaya-politika-problema-celevyh-orientirov-_.html [in Russian].
22. Jepshtejn, D., Jeland, Je. Development of alternatives to the neo-liberal approach to monetary policy. Retrieved from www.icss.ac.ru/research/dkp/central_banks.php [in Russian].
23. The complex program of development of the financial sector of Ukraine till 2020. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=19452983 [in Ukrainian].
24. The monetary policy strategy for 2016-2020. Proposals of the Board of the NBU the Main principles of monetary policy. Presentation. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved August 27, 2015, from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=20985218 [in Ukrainian].
25. The resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine dated 18 August 2015 No. 541 "On the Main principles of monetary policy for 2016-2020". Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=20985217 [in Ukrainian].
26. The letter of intent dated 27.02.2015. The conditions of the International monetary Fund under the extended financing facility (EFF) in 2015. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=10315035 [in Ukrainian].
27. The letter of intent (EFF) dated 21.07.2015. Terms of the program of the International monetary fund are within the framework of Mechanism of the extended financing (EFF) in 2015. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=20163929 [in Ukrainian].
28. Business expectations of enterprises of Ukraine. II quarter in 2015. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58374 [in Ukrainian].
29. Money-and-credit and financial statistics. National bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=65833&cat_id=44578 [in Ukrainian].
30. Nearly 50% of the Ukrainian economy appeared in a shadow. Retrieved from business.vesti-ukr.com/110979-pochti-50-jekonomiki-okazalos-v-teni [in Russian].
31. Shumska, S.S. (2015). Interconnection Between the Imbalances in Ukraine's Financial Sector. Ekonomichna teoriia – Economic Theory, 1, 74-88 [in Ukrainian].
32. Skolotjanyj, Ju., Samaeva, Ju. (2015). Gontareva V.: "These states and this so-called oligarchy – exaggerated bubbles". Zerkalo nedeli. Ukraina – Mirror of week. Ukraine, 36-37. Retrieved from gazeta.zn.ua/macrolevel/valeriya-gontareva-eti-sostoyaniya-i-eta-tak-nazyvaemaya-oligarhiya-dutye-puzyri-_.html [in Russian].
33. Basic currency market tendencies. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58039 [in Ukrainian].
34. Basic money-and-credit market tendencies. These operative NBU. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=58038 [in Ukrainian].
35. Kornyliuk, R. Renking of banks after the level of support from NBU. Retrieved from forbes.net.ua/ua/business/1397305-renking-bankiv-za-rivnem-pidtrimki-vid-nbu [in Ukrainian].
36. Instruments of monetary politics. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=85380&cat_id=107576 [in Ukrainian].
37. Gorjunov, E., Drobyshevskij, S., Trunin, P. (2015). Monetary policy and Bank of Russia: strategy and tactics. Voprosy jekonomiki – Economy questions, 4, 53-85 [in Russian].
38. Press releases of GfK Ukraine. Retrieved from www.gfk.com/press-room/press-releases/
39. Sociological questioning of Razumkov Center for March in 2015. Retrieved from www.uceps.org/ukr/poll.php?poll_id=406 [in Ukrainian].
40. An institute of trust in the coordinates of economic space-time (2012). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
41. Shumska, S.S. (2013). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through" and Monetary Policy in Ukraine. Visnyk Instytutu ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia – Bulletin of Institute for Economics and Forecasting, 51-58 [in Ukrainian].
42. Calvo, G., Reinhart, C. Fixing for your Life. Retrieved from core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6501766.pdf
43. Monetary policy purposes: review of the legislation of the central banks (2013). Analiticheskaja serija IKSI – ICSS analytical series, 60. Retrieved from www.icss.ac.ru/anseries [in Russian].
44. Svensson, L.E.O. (2000). Open-Economy Inflation Targeting. NBER Working Paper, 6545. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w6545
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