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№ 2015/2

Forecasting methods and models


MOKLIAK Maksym 1, CHERNOV P. 2, VDOVYCHENKO A. 3, ZUBRITSKYI A. 4

1Department of Coordination and Monitoring, State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
2Department of Coordination and Monitoring, State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
3 Research Institute of Financial Law (Irpin’)
4 Research Institute of Financial Law (Irpin’)

Spatial approach in forecasting tax revenues

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2015; 2:7-20https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2015.02.007


ABSTRACT ▼

Study of tax revenue forecasting accuracy is an integral part of the planning and analysis of the tax system indicators as well as one of the central functions of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine (SFS). This process is complicated by the lack of development of complex statistical apparatus that can be applied for forecasting purposes taking into account the size of tax data available in SFS of Ukraine. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the advantages of us-ing panel regressions of various fit in forecasting tax revenues at the regional level. To analyze the advantages and disadvantages of usage panel data structure in forecasting tax revenues by region, the authors emplоy econometric tools, including univariate time series models for each region, spatial and dynamic panel regression. The scientific result is that, on the basis of the analysis, the authors prove the feasibility of using panel regressions with the purpose of forecasting taxes in cases with limited time series data. These developments in modeling and fore-casting tax revenues also have practical value, because they can be used directly in the analytical activities of SFS of Ukraine at the regional level.

Keywords: tax revenues, time series, dynamic panel regression spatial panel regression


JEL: C530, H20

Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 20) DownloadDownloads :839

REFERENCES ▼