№ 2015/1
Forecasting methods and models
ZUBRITSKYI A. 1
1 Research Institute of Financial Law (Irpin’)
Ukraine's export potential in the context of comparative advantages
ABSTRACT ▼
Export diversification and realization of the export potential of the national economy under libera-lization of world commodity markets is a major challenge for Ukraine. Given this, the identification of promising directions for improving the quantitative and qualitative structure of Ukrainian exports is particularly relevant.
The purpose of this article is to identify commodity items of domestic exports, which may be ex-ported with comparative advantages in the short term.
To identify products, which are the most promising in terms of realization of export potential, the study used Hausmann-Klinger original approach. In this case, there are two main criteria of prospec-tivity: simplicity of the transition to the production of goods on the basis of available resources and technology, as well as the potential of generating export revenues.
Based on the 2013 estimates, revealed that the main sectors of the export potential realization are livestock products (5 items), food products (6 items), chemical products (4 items), and metal products (4 items).At the same time, a group of commodity items was identified, categorized as prospective for the whole period under review (2007-2013.). It was established that the proportion of prospective commodity items in total exports did not exceed 2%.
Scientific and practical value of the study consists in the identification of commodity items, which, on condition of efficient promotion (including fiscal one) can strengthen the domestic export sector in the short run.
Keywords: export basket, revealed comparative advantage, commodity space, export potential
JEL: F11, F40
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 140 - 154) | Download | Downloads :802 |
REFERENCES ▼
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