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№ 2014/2

Forecasting methods and models


1 L.Y.Karpov Physical and Chemical Research Institute (Moscow, Russian Federation)
2 Institute of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, NAS of Ukraine, (Donetsk)

Influence of the proportional distribution of common surplus on property stratification

Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 2:125-136


From the point of view of the preservation of society as a whole, of importance is the issue of the degree and tendencies of its income stratification. Regardless of the absolute value of the consumption level of the poor strata, increase in the property gap between the poor and the rich will sooner or later lead to a breach of the social tissue and split of the society into two peoples with different interests, problems, culture, and eventual hostility to each other.
To forecast the income stratification of a society, we propose to use the concept of proportional distribution of common surplus built of the two assumptions:
– in economic interaction of two and more partners, there appears a common surplus, i.e. a certain additional quantity of goods as compared to the quantity that the same people would produce, acting alone;
– those surplus goods are distributed between the interacting partners proportionally to the re-sources of each of them.
– If the above concept is adequate, then, in the real economy, should be observed:
– increase in profits overstripping that of wages;
– a positive correlation between the rate of income differentiation and annual GDP increase;
– a lognormal income distribution, when most of the society is not in the medium distribution stratum, but in the lowest one.
According to official statistical data, the present economy of the Russian Federation is characterized by all the three above mentioned features.
Based on the concept of the proportional distribution of common surplus, a mathematical model was constructed allowing calculating a curve of income stratification in the society, which, with a 1% exactness coincides with the published data, which serves an additional proof of the concept\'s adequacy.
Trial calculations have shown that exponential growth of the stratification can be only stopped with an intervention of non-economic factors.

Keywords: proportional distribution of common surplus, ranged exchange, income differentiation, Gini coefficient, decile coefficient, Lorenz curve, Kuznets curve, lognormal distribution, relative impoverishment

JEL: C12; C53; D33; E17

Article in Russian (pp. 125 - 136) DownloadDownloads :205