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| НА ГОЛОВНУ | |
№ 2018/4
КОРАБЛІН Сергій Олександрович1, ШУМСЬКА Світлана Степанівна2
1ДУ «Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України»
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
Структурна вразливість та фінансова нестабільність України: глобальний контекст
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 4:7-37 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.04.007 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Українська економіка роками страждає від фінансової нестабільності, що проявляється у хронічній девальвації гривні, регулярних фінансових, бюджетних, боргових та банківських кризах, циклічних сплесках інфляції, "відлученням" державного та приватного секторів від міжнародних фінансових ринків, національній залежності від зовнішніх офіційних кредитів, кредиторів та умов отримання їх позик. Кожне чергове фінансове загострення в Україні супроводжується глибокою економічною кризою, збільшенням безробіття, зростанням соціальної напруги та поширенням суспільної зневіри. Адже така картина спостерігається у країні вже 20 років поспіль.
За усталеним поглядом, який видається особливо очевидним під час чергового вибуху фінансових/бюджетних дефіцитів, першопричиною всіх цих негараздів є надмірне державне споживання, що провокує непродуктивні витрати у всіх секторах економіки, підвищуючи внутрішню нестійкість та вразливість країни. Суворі бюджетні обмеження за таких умов розглядаються як найкращий запобіжник фінансової та економічної нестабільності. У статті ж пропонується дещо інший погляд на причини фінансової нестабільності України. Зокрема, як її ключовий чинник розглядається структурна та виробнича недосконалість, яка призводить до фінансової залежності країни від коливань світової кон'юнктури на сировину, що вона виробляє та експортує. Зазначений підхід узгоджується не лише з логікою "інтоксикації" вітчизняної економіки під час останньої фінансової кризи, а й з результатами відповідних досліджень, проведених уже після її подолання.
Суттєвим фактором фінансової динаміки України за цих обставин виступає пропозиція глобальної ліквідності, обсяги якої безпосередньо залежать від характеру монетарної політики провідних центральних банків світу. Зокрема, її пом'якшення супроводжується підвищенням попиту на світових ринках, включаючи сировинні, що стимулює економічне зростання України з одночасним посиленням її фінансових спроможностей. І навпаки, перехід провідних центральних банків до більш жорсткої монетарної політики пригнічує глобальний попит, ціни на сировину та, як наслідок, виробничі та фінансові перспективи національної економіки.
Аналіз емпіричних даних підтверджує цю гіпотезу. Зокрема, у статті доводиться, що вплив на реальний ВВП України світових цін на сировину та курсу долара США до євро виявляється, за певних обставин, більш значущим, ніж інфляції в Україні (ціни виробників промислової продукції) та курсу гривні до долара США. Це дає змогу інтерпретувати зовнішні монетарні ефекти як вагомий чинник економічної та фінансової динаміки України – вагомий настільки, що за певних умов його дієвість є більш значущою, ніж грошово-кредитна та валютно-курсова політика власне НБУ.
Ключові слова: фінансова нестабільність, економічна динаміка, структура економіки, монетарна політика, глобальна ліквідність, курс долара США до євро, світові ціни на сировину, VAR-модель
| Стаття українською мовою (cтор. 7 - 37) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 893 |
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