The development of world trade in services and conditions of foreign trade in services in Ukraine are investigated. Measures to increase the exports of Ukrainian services are proposed.

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The author investigates the influence of the EU on direct foreign investments in the Ukrainian economy and foreign trade in domestic services. He analyzes various aspects of investment activities and trade in services in the context of the preparation measures in the countries applying for EU entry. The article proposes measures to reduce possible negative impacts of the EU eastward expansion on the Ukrainian economy.

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The author deals with the problem of the forecasting of conjuncture and business cycles with the use of composite leading indicators. He analyzes the theory of business cycles and the methodology and practice of conjuncture forecasting. Cyclical indicators for the national economy have been selected with the use of seasonal adjustment, regression analysis, and peak-and-through analysis

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The author reveals the essence of the impact of globalization challenges on the development of Ukraine’s econ-omy. He defines and analyzes various problems, which require a strategic approach to the elaboration of rele-vant national program documents. The author proposes a conceptual model of Ukraine's Innovation Strategy and characterizes the essence of its components as to the strategic guidelines, and defines the preconditions of its realization

Keywords:innovation, innovative area, competitiveness, innovative models, innovative strategy, strategic guidelines

The article deals with the important issues of the existing non-tariff barriers in the trade between Ukraine and the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan), and the peculiar features in the formation of a new system of technical regulation in Eurasian Economic Space / Customs Union and Ukraine.
The new legislation of the CU and EES on technical regulation causes a sharp decline in the exports of the Ukrainian goods, which are a subject of the new trade regulations. On the other hand, those Ukrainian goods, which are not covered by the new technical regulations, still keep good prospects at the EES market.
The authors make the conclusions regarding the usefulness of the implementation of the Customs Union's alternative technical regulations in Ukraine. The article evaluates the potential losses in Ukraine's foreign trade due to the application of the Customs Union / EES's technical regulations to analogous industrial and agricultural products; also, it analyzes various cases of bans on the import of goods into the Customs Union.
The losses of Ukraine's export revenues in the trade with the EES due to the existing technical barriers, such as the CU technical regulations, amount to at least US 1 bln annually. Adoption, by Ukraine, of some of the alternative CU technical regulations would help avoid losses in the exports to the Eurasian Economic Space.

Keywords: trade policy, trade agreements, non-tariff barriers, technical regulations

In spite on the current economic recession and drop in exchange rate of the hryvnia, imported agri-food productes have not disappeared from supermarkets and grocer's shelves. In scientific publications, integrated assessments of the level of import expansion on domestic agri-food market are practically unavailable, which complicates the efficient policy formation for the protection of domestic market.
The article's objective is to investigate the level and dynamics of import expansion on domestic agri-food market during 2004-2015, define its fundamental reasons, and work out proposals to counteract this negative phenomenon.
The author proposes an original comprehensive methodology for assessing the extent of import dependence on the food market. On its basis, he investigates the dynamics of imports on the domestic agro-food market during 2004-2015.
The import expansion during 2004-2015 has a cyclical nature. It increased within the phases of economic growth and decreased within those of recession. The peak of import expansion was in 2008, when imports of agri-food commodities constituted 13% of domestic agri-food consumption. In 2015, the most import dependent markets were fish, vegetable oil, fruit, alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
Among the major causes of the import expansion in 2004-2015 were: low competitiveness of home-produced agri-food products, unproportionally high investments in export oriented activities, and the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers in the context of Ukraine's accession to the World Trade Organization.
The measures to control the import expansion should include raising price and non-price competitiveness of domestic goods, restraining imports by means of non-tariff barriers, and attracting foreign direct investments to activities oriented to Ukraine's domestic market.

Keywords: agro-food imports, agro-food market, import dependence, competitiveness

During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports.
Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized.
Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products.
An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine.
With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine.
A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its economic security and national interests, the Russian Federation has substantially complicated the transit of Ukrainian goods to Kazakhstan from January 2016, and since July 2016, it even temporarily banned the transit, through its territory, of those Ukrainian goods, which are subject to import duty with rates different from 0, as well as goods on which import embargo was im-posed in accordance with the Decree of the Government of Russian Federation No. 778 of 07.08.2014. Actually the transit ban involved 90% of all Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan.
The most suffered are the exporters of machine-building and metallurgical products, whose deliveries decreased by 3 and 5 times, respectively. To restore exports to Kazakhstan, it is expe-dient, using the WTO mechanisms and procedures, to attain the lift of the ban on the transit of Ukrainian goods through the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as to intensify the activities of creating transport corridors bypassing the territory of the Russian Federation for the delivery of goods to Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries, in particular, using the TRACECA corridor.
To expand the exports of metallurgical products, it is necessary to carry out the following measures: to raise the quality of products by raising the volume of steel production in electric furnaces, converters, and creating mini and micro plants as businesses able to react promptly and flexibly to fluctuations in the market of metal products; to increase the output of hot rolled sheet on broadband hot rolling mills based on new technologies and equipment; and to expand the range of metal rolling, in particular to increase the production of cold-rolled sheet with protective coating.
Analysis of the world market of metallurgical products shows a necessity of: development of the production of high-quality transformer and automotive thin-sheet steel; expansion of the production of gas and oil pipes with external and internal coverage by introducing new high-tech technologies; increase in the production of high-quality pipes from continuous cast billets on high-performance continuous rolling mills and the organization of production of new grades of steel with increased corrosion resistance for oil extraction and transportation.
The implementation of these and other measures justified in the article would help overcome the negative tendency of reduction in domestic commodity exports.

Keywords: global trade, conjuncture, export, protectionism, non-tariff barriers, trade agreements, competitiveness

The article deals with the consequences for Ukraine's consumer market after the entry into force of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. The author analyzes the exports of domestic consumer goods in the EU during 2016-2017. Defined groups of consumer goods whose export to European countries has increased the most. During 2016-2017, out of 115 commodity groups, for 96 commodity groups, increased exports were registered, and in 19 commodity groups a decline took place. In 2017, a considerable number of commodity groups showed record volumes of exports to the EU in recent 10 years.
Most of all, the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement promoted the entry to the European market for the exporters of such goods as: meat and edible byproducts of poultry; furniture; household appliances; sugar; canned tomatoes; margarine and similar food mixtures and dairy butter. A decline of export deliveries to the EU was registered for individual types of clothes and shoes produced under tolling contracts, as well as for individual argo-food items (such as fruit and vegetable juices, wines etc.). This reduction was related partly to the worsened market conditions for the above goods at the European market, and partly to the worsened conditions of their production in Ukraine.
Despite the reduction of exports in individual clothes and shoe items, on the whole, exports of light industry produce to the EU increased during 2014-2017. While exports of fruit and vegetable juices in 2016-2017 just returned to their usual levels after the "conjuncture splash" of 2013-2015.
Researches showed that, during 2016-2017, no substantial expansion of imports of consumer goods from the EU occurred in Ukraine. The only two exceptions are: 1) passenger cars, and 2) second hand clothes. In order to counteract the expansion of imported cars, it has been proposed to raise the import duty on this group of commodities in accordance with the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement.
Implementation of EU directives regarding the taxation of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products has led to higher prices and volumes of "shadow" market for these goods. In this context, it has been justified to establish a minimum price for tobacco products.

Keywords: the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement, consumer market, export and import of consumer goods, minimum prices for tobacco products

Development of the trade between Ukraine and China generates serious challenges for the national economy, because, presently, the trade with China accounts for more than a half of Ukraine's negative balance in this country's international trade in goods (56% in January-November 2018). Despite the risks of further deterioration of trade balance, Ukraine has suggested to start consultations on the Ukraine-China free-trade agreement (FTA).
The purpose of the paper is to estimate the possible impact of the liberalization of trade with China and to develop recommendations for raising exports and suppressing China's goods expansion on domestic market. In order to investigate the problem and shape the outlook for domestic exports to China, the following steps have been made: (1) compared the structure of external trade in goods of Ukraine and China; (2) evaluated the trade regimes' symmetry between China and Ukraine; (3) identified the characteristics of China's non-tariff trade regulations; (4) analyzed special ties features of negotiating with China on FTA; (5) analyzed the situation with the development of domestic export to China, and identified prospective markets for domestic goods; and (6) analyzed the dynamics of imports of goods from China during 2004-2018. Also, discussed the groups of import goods that are top items by absolute volume and possess a high share in imports and in local domestic consumption.
Analysis of the structure of trade flows between Ukraine and China showed that the most probable development scenario in the trade with China is the increased orientation of Ukrainian export on raw materials and empowering of Ukraine's dependence on the import of Chinese industrial goods. Probability of this scenario is increasing since the trade regimes of Ukraine and China are asymmetrical, which creates unequal conditions of trade that are more preferable for China. It was found that, even in case of trade liberalization as the result of FTA negotiations between China and Ukraine, Ukraine could not expect sustainable increase in exports of agri-food goods, as China has special non-tariff regulations in domestic agri-food markets.
Among the core directions of the government policy of supporting the development of agricultural export to China is promotion of corn export in accordance with the credit agreement of 2012 between State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine and Export-Import Bank of China, and soybean export promotion with the purpose to substitute US in the Chinese import soybean market, which opened up as a result of US-China trade disputes in 2017-2018. Negative trends in bilateral trade are the reason for active government policy promoting the export of processed goods to China, first of all the products of food industry and optical photographic instruments and apparatus that are of high demand in local Chinese markets.
Import dependence of domestic local market remains high without significant signs of decrease. In 2017, the ratio between import and GDP was the highest for the recent 17 years. During 2013-2017, this ratio increased from 0.51 to 0.56. Dependence of Ukraine's economy on import could increase further as a result of liberalization of the trade with China. Despite the benefits for exporters (mostly exporters of raw goods), cheap Chinese import could delay the renaissance of the domestic light industry that has gradually started after a sharp decline in 2013-2015.
Dynamics of goods import from China during 2004-2018 was analyzed, and discussed groups of goods that are the top import items by absolute volume, possess a high share in imports and in local domestic consumption. The research was conducted on agricultural and agri-food goods, and for 4- and 6- digit codes.
Presence of Chinese goods in domestic market is constantly increasing. In 2002-2003, balance of trade between Ukraine and China was positive, and the share of China's goods in market was below 2%, but, starting from 2005, the trade balance has been always negative with share of Chinese goods increasing to 13% (2018).
Machinery accounted for more than a half of Chinese import in 2018, with machinery, instruments and equipment making the highest share. China is the main exporter of telephone equipment for cellular networks, computers and notebooks, photo-sensitive semi-conductors, light-emitting diodes and other innovative and high technology products. China possesses top positions in imports of household electronics and appliances, light industry goods (shoes, toys, synthetic textiles etc.) and other goods. In 74 out of 178 analyzed 4-digit groups of goods, China's share in import in 2017 was higher than 50%.
From the position of domestic market protection, trade liberalization with China could cause high risks for domestic producers. Assortment of industrial goods that are imported from China is very extensive, hence their expansion in domestic market could be quite significant.

Keywords: People's Republic of China, Free Trade Agreement (FTA), trade regime, export, import dependence, protection of the domestic market

The experience of the formation of free trade zones (FTZ) of China with the countries of Asia, Oceania and South America is investigated. The dynamics of bilateral trade, as well as changes in the product structure after the entry into force of the FTA agreement, is analyzed. Summarized the positive effects and negative consequences of the functioning of the FTZ with China for the countries of Asia, Oceania, Europe and South America. A forecast is made of possible positive effects and negative consequences for the domestic economy from the liberalization of trade relations with China.
In particular, as of August 2019, China had existing bilateral agreements on an FTA with 20 countries, and the preparatory process continued with at least 20 countries. The purpose of the article was to analyze the effectiveness of the functioning of the FTZ with China for its trading partners, in particular, Chile, Peru, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, Iceland. For the study, data were used for 1999-2017.
Since during 1999-2017 China's economy developed rapidly, all countries that were investigated increased their exports to China. Six out of eleven countries after the entry into force of the free trade agreements increased their exports to China more than in the same period before the agreement. China, after the entry into force of free trade agree-ments, increased exports to 8 of its 11 foreign trade partners.
After the conclusion of the FTA Agreement, the export structure of bilateral trade has become more diversified for both China and its foreign trade partners. This is evidenced by the dynamics of such indicators as a share in the export of 6 major product groups; the number of product groups, export volumes of which were zero, but became not zero; the number of product groups, export volumes of which exceeded $ 1 million, that is, they be-came significant.
According to the criterion of trade balance, China after liberalization received more benefits than its trading partners. In particular, the balance of bilateral trade with the PRC was improved by 4 countries, while for 7 countries, after the entry into force of the FTA agreement, it worsened.
In November 2018, an agreement was reached between the Ukrainian and Chinese parties on joint consultations regarding the prerequisites for the establishment of an FTA. In the Export Strategy of Ukraine for 2017-2021 is noted that "... the initiation of new free trade agreements should be based solely on the basis of studies of economic feasibility ...".

Keywords:People's Republic of China, free trade agreement, liberalization efficiency, export promotion, import's dependence

The economy can function both under normal and extraordinary conditions, which include states of emergency and martial law. Emergency conditions arise from time to time and can be both relatively short and sufficiently long. The functioning of the economy in conditions of emergency and martial law can include overcoming the pandemic and repelling armed aggression. The functioning of the economy in conditions of emergency and martial law requires special methods of state regulation, including on commodity markets.
The purpose of the article is to determine methodical approaches to the formation of regulatory policy on commodity markets under conditions of emergency and martial law. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were set: 1) to determine the peculiarities of the regulation of commodity markets in conditions of emergency and martial law; 2) assess the effectiveness of regulatory influence; and 3) substantiate recommendations for improvement of regulatory policy.
Various methods of sampling and statistical processing of information were used during the research. Data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, and the State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection were used for the analysis. Special attention was paid to the methods of price regulation and increasing supply in commodity markets of consumer goods.
One of the main features of the functioning of the economy in conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic and martial law is the disruption of the usual supply chains of goods. There is a commodity shortage in the markets, which accelerates the growth of prices. Therefore, the main task of regulatory policy in commodity markets is to encourage supply and curb inflation. To this end, during 2020-2022, a set of measures was introduced: the procedure for starting a business was simplified, the tax burden was reduced, pricing was deregulated, exports were limited, barriers to imports were lowered, a declaration of intent to increase prices was introduced, price limits were established, etc.
As a result of the conducted research, it was found: 1) high efficiency of influence on the price dynamics on the part of export restrictions and tax benefits; 2) low effectiveness of the declaration of the intention to increase the price; 3) relatively high efficiency of setting ceiling prices during a pandemic and low efficiency of this measure under martial law; 3) high expediency of introducing free prices on the markets of goods of significant social importance with high competition between suppliers; 4) great importance of the competition between suppliers to overcome shortages and price stability.
In order to improve the regulatory policy in the conditions of emergency and martial law, the following recommendations have been substantiated: 1) canceling the price limits in highly competitive markets; 2) simplifying the procedure for declaring the intention to increase the price and strengthening control over its implementation; 3) creating strategic stocks of goods of significant social importance in the event of a state of emergency and war.

Keywords:state regulation, commodity markets, martial law, COVID-19 pandemic, price control, ceiling price, declaration of price change, dual price