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№ 3/2016
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, SHKLIAR Andriy 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The refinancing of the central bank as one of the pressures on the exchange rate: the experience of Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 3:43-50 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.03.043 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The National Bank of Ukraine possessed all necessary tools to prevent speculative operations on the interbank currency market and, accordingly, inadequate depreciation of the national currency due to this factor in 2014. But the NBU appeared to be unable to ensure effective and efficient control over foreign exchange transactions of commercial banks. We have to state the absence of a systematic, balanced and understandable policy of the reg-ulator during the period of destabilization which was further aggravated by the massive volumes of refinancing loans to commercial banks, non-transparent procedures for granting refinancing loans and almost absolute lack of control over their intended use.
Keywords:depreciation, refinancing, flexible exchange rate, FX intervention
JEL: E58, F31
Article in English (pp. 43 - 50) | Download | Downloads :815 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
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8. Horodnychenko, Yu., Korenok, O. (09.04.2015). Mathematics for Gontareva: Refinance is not a hindrance for stable exchange rate. LigaBiznes. Retrieved from biz.liga.net/all/all/stati/2984169-matematika-za-gontarevu-refinans-stabilnomu-kursu-ne-pomekha.htm [in Russian].
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№ 1/2020
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 1:47-62 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.047 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article examines the impact of foreign capital on the economic processes that took place in Ukraine during 2000–2019 pp. Among foreign investors, Ukraine seeks to position itself as an investment hub, in which it is profitable to invest and develop business. In some places, the impression is that foreign investment is identified with a panacea that will enable Ukraine to reach the level of development of world leaders. At the same time, the study concluded that the efficiency and quality of FDI, portfolio investment and debt capital raises considerable doubts. For 2000 and 10 months of 2019, the total net inflow of direct, portfolio foreign investments and foreign loans to Ukraine amounted to $ 185.3 billion. USA. At the same time, such a large financial resource did not become a catalyst for structural changes in the economy and the development of high-tech production. Instead, the concentration of foreign capital in certain economic activities contributed to the consolidation of the raw material orientation of this country's economy and exacerbation of domestic economic problems against the backdrop of a large influx of speculative capital.
Much attention is paid to the geographical structure of foreign investments and debt capital, which testifies to the significant influence of offshore jurisdictions on the activities of domestic businesses and the formation of their behavior. Offshore capitalization is a defining feature of national business, which has become one of the main causes of the distortion of the model of Ukraine's economic development.
The article focuses on the need to improve public policy on attracting foreign capital in Ukraine. In particular, it is proved that the lack of proper control over the concentration of foreign capital in certain sectors causes significant imbalances, which, under the influence of other factors, exacerbate the crisis. In view of this, it is advisable at the state level to analyze the "toxic impact" of foreign capital on structural changes in the economy and its impact on the economic security of Ukraine.
The article was prepared in the framework of R&D on "Financial risks of doing business in Ukraine: non-financial corporations sector" state registration No 0118U006088.
Keywords:foreign capital, foreign direct investment, economic development, foreign loans, offshore capital
JEL: O190
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 47 - 62) | Download | Downloads :548 |
REFERENCES ▼
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16. Harkavenko, V. (2011). Foreign capital in the banking sector of Ukraine: lessons learned from the past, lessons for the future. Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
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№ 3/2020
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Currency liberalization and its impact on the economy of Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 3:25-40 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.025 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Examining the transformation of financial relations in Ukraine, in the previous article the authors analyzed the impact of foreign capital on the economic development of this country’s economy and found that its concentration in certain economic activities contributed to consolidating its raw material orientation. The authors conclude that due to the distorted model of Ukraine\'s economic development, successful practices of developed countries to attract foreign investment and reform the financial sector are ineffective in this country’s economy. Continuing the study of the transformations of financial relations in Ukraine, which are taking place under the influence of the approximation of domestic legislation to European standards, the authors could not leave aside the question of impact of the liberalization of currency legislation on the economy. Given that currency liberalization significantly affects the behavior of foreign investors, the authors conducted an in-depth analysis of legislative changes in the financial sector, and described the main results of their implementation. The positive and negative consequences of currency liberalization in Ukraine for business entities and the economy in general are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the risks associated with the liberalization of operations related to the movement of capital and the behavior of non-residents in the financial market of Ukraine. It is concluded that Ukraine’s economy with its distorted development model belongs to the financially and institutionally weak ones, hence is not presently ready to liberalize its monetary relations, which could only deepen the deformations and reduce resilience to macroeconomic imbalances.
The publication was prepared in accordance with the research \"Financial risks of doing business in Ukraine: the sector of non-financial corporations\" (№ state registration 0118U006088).
Keywords:currency liberalization, capital market, currency legislation, policy of the National Bank of Ukraine
JEL: G21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 25 - 40) | Download | Downloads :570 |
REFERENCES ▼
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5. Gershanovich, E. (2007). Currency liberalization: pros and cons. Proceedings of Tomsk Polytechnic University, 310: 1, 228-230 [in Russian].
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9. Repko, M., Kashko, O., Piontkivska, I. (2016, March). International experience of capital movement liberalization. Visnyk Natsional\'noho banku Ukrainy – Bulletin of the NBU, 26-42. doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2016.235.026 [in Ukrainian].
10.Speech by Yaremenko O. at the round table \"Liberalization of currency regulation in Ukraine: risks and prospects\" (2015, September 24). Retrieved from ief.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/%D0%9A% D1% 80_% D1% 81% D1% 82% D1% 96% D0% BB-24.09.pdf [in Ukrainian].
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12. Árvai, Zsófia (2005). Capital Account Liberalization, Capital Flow Patterns, and Policy Responses in the EU’s New Member States. IMF Working Paper. doi.org/10.5089/9781451862324.001
13. Garkavenko, V. (2011). Foreign capital in the activity of the banking sector of Ukraine: experience of the past, lessons for the future. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
14. The impact of global finance on the monetary and financial system of Ukraine (2017). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
15. The Association Agreement between Ukraine, of the one part, and the European Union, the European Atomic Energy Community and their Member States, of the other part. Chapter 7. Article 145. Retrieved from https: //zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/984_011#Text [in Ukrainian].
16. Roadmap for the abolition of currency restrictions. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/liberalization [in Ukrainian].
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20. On establishing exceptions and (or) features of the introduction of deadlines for payments for export and import of goods and amendments to certain regulations (2019, May 14). Resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine № 67. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/en/legislation/Resolution_14052019_67 [in Ukrainian].
21. On approval of the list of goods and (or) sectors of the economy for which the National Bank has the right to establish exceptions and (or) features of the protection measure provided for in paragraph one of the first article 13 of the Law of Ukraine \"On Currency and Currency Transactions (2019, February 13). Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine № 76-r. Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/76-2019-%D1%80#Text [in Ukrainian].
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29. Garkavenko, V., Ershova, G. (2020). The impact of foreign capital on the economic development of Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economics and forecasting, 1, 47-62. doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.047 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 1/2022
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT POLICY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 1:107-123 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.01.107 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period.
It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment.
A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses.
Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine.
The publication was prepared within the research project on "Transformations in the financing of corporate business in conditions of instability" (State Registration No: 0121U112770).
Keywords:government debt policy, state budget deficit, public debt, debt sustainability, domestic government bonds, external government bonds
JEL: H63
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 107 - 123) | Download | Downloads :198 |
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