Articles by : Zubritskyi A. № 1/2015
Forecasting methods and models
ZUBRITSKYI A. 1
1 Research Institute of Financial Law (Irpin’)
Ukraine's export potential in the context of comparative advantages
ABSTRACT ▼
Export diversification and realization of the export potential of the national economy under libera-lization of world commodity markets is a major challenge for Ukraine. Given this, the identification of promising directions for improving the quantitative and qualitative structure of Ukrainian exports is particularly relevant.
The purpose of this article is to identify commodity items of domestic exports, which may be ex-ported with comparative advantages in the short term.
To identify products, which are the most promising in terms of realization of export potential, the study used Hausmann-Klinger original approach. In this case, there are two main criteria of prospec-tivity: simplicity of the transition to the production of goods on the basis of available resources and technology, as well as the potential of generating export revenues.
Based on the 2013 estimates, revealed that the main sectors of the export potential realization are livestock products (5 items), food products (6 items), chemical products (4 items), and metal products (4 items).At the same time, a group of commodity items was identified, categorized as prospective for the whole period under review (2007-2013.). It was established that the proportion of prospective commodity items in total exports did not exceed 2%.
Scientific and practical value of the study consists in the identification of commodity items, which, on condition of efficient promotion (including fiscal one) can strengthen the domestic export sector in the short run.
Keywords: export basket, revealed comparative advantage, commodity space, export potential
JEL: F11, F40
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 140 - 154) | Download | Downloads :807 |
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№ 2/2015
Forecasting methods and models
MOKLIAK Maksym 1, CHERNOV P. 2, VDOVYCHENKO A. 3, ZUBRITSKYI A. 4
1Department of Coordination and Monitoring, State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
2Department of Coordination and Monitoring, State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
3 Research Institute of Financial Law (Irpin’)
4 Research Institute of Financial Law (Irpin’)
Spatial approach in forecasting tax revenues
ABSTRACT ▼
Study of tax revenue forecasting accuracy is an integral part of the planning and analysis of the tax system indicators as well as one of the central functions of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine (SFS). This process is complicated by the lack of development of complex statistical apparatus that can be applied for forecasting purposes taking into account the size of tax data available in SFS of Ukraine. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the advantages of us-ing panel regressions of various fit in forecasting tax revenues at the regional level. To analyze the advantages and disadvantages of usage panel data structure in forecasting tax revenues by region, the authors emplоy econometric tools, including univariate time series models for each region, spatial and dynamic panel regression. The scientific result is that, on the basis of the analysis, the authors prove the feasibility of using panel regressions with the purpose of forecasting taxes in cases with limited time series data. These developments in modeling and fore-casting tax revenues also have practical value, because they can be used directly in the analytical activities of SFS of Ukraine at the regional level.
Keywords: tax revenues, time series, dynamic panel regression spatial panel regression
JEL: C530, H20
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 20) | Download | Downloads :846 |
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