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№ 2/2014
SKRYPNYCHENKO Mariya Illivna1, YATSENKO Hanna Yuriyivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Indicators for the identification of dangerous economic imbalances in emerging economies
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 2:7-20 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers the problem of formalizing internal and external factors (indicators) of macroeconomic imbalances, and analyzes their influence on the likelihood of crisis in the emerging economies. The main purpose of the article is to monitor the economic condition and identify and choose the potential predictors of dangerous economic imbalances for the group of countries (Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Armenia), that are similar in terms of emergent properties. To identify this group of countries among 57 countries, the authors have used cluster analysis. With the use of the modern mathematical economic methods (panel data model, concept of exchange market pressure, signal approach) the type of binary regression model was chosen (by minimizing noise to signal ratio), and the models where the dependent variable is a binary response, were developed (in particular, probit-model). Those models reflect the dependence of the likelihood of financial crisis on a number of economic indicators.
The authors propose various approaches for detecting the indicators of dangerous economic imbalances. Those approaches provide a modeling tool for the quantitative analysis of macroeconomic policies in terms of the prevention of negative trends in the economic development in Ukraine and other partner countries, which are characterized by similar levels of emerging economies.
The results of the identification and estimation of the levels of economic imbalances in Ukraine (in accordance with the criteria proposed in the article) show the presence of certain imbalances and the economic instability during 2003–2012 (and substantial sectoral imbalances in 2013). The authors have calculated a high (up to the level of 91%) likelihood of a financial crisis in Ukraine for the negative (inertial-risk) scenario.
The results of the investigation may be used by officials, civil servants (those involved in deter-mining this country\'s macroeconomic policies, economic management and forecasting the future economic performance) as a tool for the timely identification of threatening macroeconomic imbalances as a means to detect and prevent a crisis.
Keywords: indicators of dangerous economic imbalances; financial crisis; emerging economies; panel data model; concept of exchange market pressure; signal approach; binary regression model
JEL: C14; C33; E61; P00
Article in English (pp. 7 - 20) | Download | Downloads :658 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 20) | Download | Downloads :730 |
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№ 1/2018
SKRYPNYCHENKO Mariya Illivna1, YATSENKO Hanna Yuriyivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
An instrumental analysis of GDP gap in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 1:58-78 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.01.058 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country’s economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic).
It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019–2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc.
On the whole, the reduction of the "recession" GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half.
Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.
Keywords: GDP gap, real and potential GDP, model toolkit, production function with constant elasticity of substitution, Cobb-Douglas production function, extended production function, employment level, use of production capacities
JEL: С51, O11, O47
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 58 - 78) | Download | Downloads :936 |
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22. Skrypnychenko, M.I., Kuzubov, M.V., Yatsenko, H.Yu. (2016). Complex of models of monitoring of key macro-balances in the economy of Ukraine. Formuvannia rynkovykh vidnosyn v Ukraini – Formation of market relations in Ukraine, 7(182), 57-65 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 2/2021
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE FACTORS OF POST-COVID RECOVERY IN THE GROWTH OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN 2021-2022
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 2:52-68 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.02.052 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, the study focuses on the higher risk of negative long-term consequences of the pandemic in developing economies (particularly in Ukraine). This is due to the limited fiscal support of economies in these countries, in contrast to the numerous measures taken by the governments of developed countries to support citizens and businesses during the corona crisis. The devastating long-term effects of the coronary crisis on the economies and populations of poorer countries will continue until governments take steps towards economic recovery and promotion of economic growth.
Based on the identification of the main drivers of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016-2019, as well as the generalization of the experience of post- COVID economic recovery in other countries (including Australia, USA, EU, Japan and advanced Asian countries), the study proposes ways to restore Ukraine’s economy and minimize adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The author proposes to promote the recovery of the Ukrainian economy through expanding domestic (both consumer and investment) demand and intensifying innovation-based development.
As shown by the analysis of international experience, consumer demand under the pandemic conditions should be encouraged, in particular through the development of domestic tourism; assistance to small businesses in diversifying their sales channels; promotion of demand in the online market. The author points out that in order to promote investment demand it is necessary to emphasize the development of infrastructure, introduction of temporary investment incentives, and transfer of losses received in previous tax periods. It is proposed to intensify the innovative development of Ukraine by creating an environment favorable to the development of small innovative enterprises (startups), increasing research and development costs, and integrating business, education, and research organizations.
Keywords:COVID-19 pandemic, post-COVID economic recovery, domestic demand, innovation-based development
JEL: E20, O11, O38
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 52 - 68) | Download | Downloads :420 |
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