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№ 2/2016
SHAROV Oleksandr Mykolajovych1
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Ukraine's exchange policy: a quarter of uncertainty
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 2:37-70 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.02.037 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the basic elements of the exchange policy during Ukraine's independence - including monetary sovereignty, the degree of currency convertibility, the exchange rate regime, the exchange control mechanism and cooperation with the international monetary fund. The author provides a detailed analysis of the problem of selecting the appropriate direction of the exchange policy and points to the continuing uncertainty about this choice, and hence the lack of efficiency of the exchange policy in general.
Ukrainian practice makes you pay attention to such a characteristic of the exchange policy as its focus on the own currency, i.e. the introduction of legal rules governing the relationship arising through use of the national currency in the currency operations (foreign exchange transactions between residents and within non-residents). Given this, the exchange policy should be formed on the basis of the principles adopted in other areas of the economic policy in order to ensure the in-tegrity of a strategic approach to achieve the goals of a comprehensive economic policy (including exchange relations).
The exchange policy should provide coordination and reasonable relationship of different components of the economic policy, in both internal and external areas, including the distinct interaction between national and international institutions of the monetary regulation. Only the presence and the use of the above analytical framework of monetary policy - in the form of professionally prepared and politically coherent laws, concepts, strategies and action programs in various fields of economy and policies - could provide certainty, consistency and effectiveness of the state monetary policy.
Unfortunately, Ukraine was forced to implement its exchange policy in the absence of almost all previous conditions, which caused the uncertainty of the state monetary policy as regards its key elements, such as a general orientation (goal), the degree of currency convertanility, the exchange rate regime, foreign exchange market and currency control institutions. In addition, the most negative way on the foreign policy reflected the general uncertainty about the economic policy and overall strategy for economic development. Such uncertainty caused a chain reaction of uncertainty as to some important elements of the exchange policy.
Keywords: exchange (monetary) policy, monetary sovereignty, convertibility, exchange rate, exchange controls, the IMF
JEL: E52, F31
| Article in English (pp. 37 - 70) | Download | Downloads :647 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Lavrynenko, I. (24 August, 2013). Economy of independent Ukraine: a hope on development is yet. Rakurs. Retrieved from ua.racurs.ua/333-ekonomika-nezalejnoyi-ukrayiny-nadiya-na-rozvytok-sche-ie [in Ukrainian].
3. Tymochko, N. O., Puchko, O. A., Rudomotkina, L. M. (et all). (2000). The economic development of Ukraine in 50–80 years. Ekonomichna istoriia : lektsii. Kyiv: Kyiv National Economic University. Retrieved from buklib.net/books/33700/ [in Ukrainian].
4. The main directions of economic policy of Ukraine in conditions of independence. Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1698a-12 [in Ukrainian].
5. Melnyk, T. O. (2012). Ukraine's economy during independence losses, failures and prospects. Aktual'ni problemy ekonomiky, 8 (134), 44 [in Ukrainian].
6. Pynzenyk, V. (1998). Horses are not guilty, or Reform or their imitation. Kyiv: Academy [in Ukrainian].
7. Aslund, A. (2009). Ukraine has become a country with a market economy and democracy. Washington: Petersen Institute for International Economics [in Ukrainian].
8. USSR Law of 1 March 1991 on currency regulation, articles 11–12. BestPravo.ru. Retrieved from russia.bestpravo.ru/fed1991/data01/tex11994.htm [in Russian].
9. Monetary sovereignty. Skolkovo, Institute of Law and Development Economics. Retrieved from ild.hse.ru/monetary [in Russian].
10. Zimmermann, C. D. (2013). The Concept of Monetary Sovereignty Revisited. The European Journal of International Law, 24:3, 804. doi: doi.org/10.1093/ejil/cht041
11. Robinson, A. (27 May, 1992). Poland set the pattern? Financial Times, Section IV:IV.
12. Spencer, G. (1992, May, 28–29). The problem of the introduction of the currency in Central and Eastern Europe – practical aspects. International conference. Commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on economical reform. Kyiv, Intelsfera [in Ukrainian].
13. Papava, V. (2001). The International Monetary Fund in Georgia: Achievements and mistakes. Tbilisi [in Russian].
14. Hanke, S. H., Jonung, L. & Schuler K. (1993). Russian Currency and Finance. A currency board approach to reform. London and New York: Routledge.
15. Sharov, A. (1996). Currency convertibility. Kiev: Niva [in Russian].
16. Shelton, J. (2014). A Currency Board for Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 26.
17. Halchynskyi, A. (2012). Heterohenizatsiya system of monetary relations, prospects paradigm. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrainy, 7, 7 [in Ukrainian].
18. Voytytskaya, L. (10 December, 2011). Currency exchange. Forbes Ukraine, 84 [in Russian].
19. "Naftogaz" has begun calculations with "Gazprom" in Russian rubles. (2011). Retrieved from zn.ua/ECONOMICS/naftogaz_nachal_raschety_s_gazpromom_v_rublyah.html [in Russian].
20. Borisov, S. M (2011). The use of the ruble in international settlements and reserves (quantitative aspect). Moscow: IMEMO [in Russian].
21. Stafford, P. (2012). CLS in discussions over renminbi. Clearing and Settlement. Retrieved Oct. 3, 2012 from www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6190523e-233f-11e2-a46b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz42t0Ffa3D
22. China mulls renminbi settlement options (2015, Dec. 4). Reuters. Retrieved Dec. 4, 2015 from www.reuters.com/article/china-markets-currency-idUSL1N13T1BD20151204
23. CLS Bank International Rules (September 23, 2013). Currency Program. Briefing Book. – CLS. Fundamental to FX
24. Mishchenko, V. I., Nidzelska, I. A. (et al.) (2010). A flexible exchange rate regime: the stages of implementation and the possible consequences for the economic development of Ukraine. Scientific analyzes, 15. Kyiv National Bank of Ukraine. Research Center [in Ukrainian].
25. Kapljuk, G., Blohtur, A. (2011). The ups and downs of the hryvnia. Glavkom, September, 01. Retrieved from April 18, 2006 [in Russian].
26. IMF (2007, Nov. 27). Review of Exchange Arrangements, Restrictions, and Controls. Retrieved from www.imf.org/External/NP/pp/2007/eng/112707.pdf
27. Gontareva: NBU is not responsible for the hryvnia (2016). Finance.UA. Retrieved 05.02.2016 from news.finance.ua/ua/news/-/368941/gontareva-nbu-ne-vidpovidaye-za-kurs-gryvni [in Ukrainian].
28. Selinger, P. (2005). Tutorial on multiple currency accounting. 3.2. The "official" solution: translation to a single currency. Retrieved Jun 4, 2005 from www.mathstat.dal.ca/~selinger/accounting/tutorial.html#3.2
29. Regulation number 286-P (2006). On the establishment and publication of the Central Bank of Russia foreign currency official rate against the ruble. Retrieved April 18, 2006 from www.cbr.ru/currency_base/286-p.pdf [in Russian].
30. National Bank has opposed the creation of export credit agencies (02 February, 2016). Gazeta.UA. Retrieved April 18, 2016 from gazeta.ua/articles/economics/_nacbank-vistupiv-proti-stvorennya-eksportnokreditnogo-agentstva/675,482?Mobile=true [in Russian].
31. Jebke, V. F. (1997). International Monetary Law. Moscow: International Relations [in Russian].
32. Blashchuk, Yu. O. (2001). The problems of exchange control. Series: The globalization of financial markets. Kyiv: Print Publishing House DrUk [in Ukrainian].
33. OECD (1993). Centre Exchange Control Policy – Centre for Co-Operation with the European Economies in Transition. Co-Operation with the European Economies in Transition. Retrieved December, 2, 1994 from orka.sejm.gov.pl/proc2.nsf/ustawy/621_u.htm
34. Prawo dewizowe. Ustawa z dnia 2 grudnia 1994 r. orka.sejm.gov.pl/proc2.nsf/ustawy/621_u.htm [in Polish].
35. James, H. (1996). International Cooperation since Bretton Woods. Washington: D.C.
36. Griffith-Jones, S. (1972). The Role and Resources of the Fund. In Posner M. (Ed.) Problems of International Money (1986), 85 (p. 114–115). Wash., D.C., IMF.
37. Kuznetsov, V. (2002). Russia's relations with the IMF. Mirovaja jekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija, 7, 46 [in Russian].
38. IMF (1992, Sept. 22–24). Summary Proceedings of the Forty-Seventh, Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors. Washington, D.C.
39. NDFI (1997). Ukraine International Monetary Fund. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
40. Gomulka, S. (1995). The IMF-Supported Programs of Poland and Russia 1990–1994; Principles, Errors and Results. Warsaw: CASE. Retrieved from www.case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/3414767_036_0.pdf
SHAROV Oleksandr Mykolajovych1
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Ukraine's exchange policy: a quarter of uncertainty
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 2:41-73 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the basic elements of the exchange policy during Ukraine's independence - including monetary sovereignty, the degree of currency convertibility, the exchange rate regime, the exchange control mechanism and cooperation with the international monetary fund. The author provides a detailed analysis of the problem of selecting the appropriate direction of the exchange policy and points to the continuing uncertainty about this choice, and hence the lack of efficiency of the exchange policy in general.
Ukrainian practice makes you pay attention to such a characteristic of the exchange policy as its focus on the own currency, i.e. the introduction of legal rules governing the relationship arising through use of the national currency in the currency operations (foreign exchange transactions between residents and within non-residents). Given this, the exchange policy should be formed on the basis of the principles adopted in other areas of the economic policy in order to ensure the in-tegrity of a strategic approach to achieve the goals of a comprehensive economic policy (including exchange relations).
The exchange policy should provide coordination and reasonable relationship of different components of the economic policy, in both internal and external areas, including the distinct interaction between national and international institutions of the monetary regulation. Only the presence and the use of the above analytical framework of monetary policy - in the form of professionally prepared and politically coherent laws, concepts, strategies and action programs in various fields of economy and policies - could provide certainty, consistency and effectiveness of the state monetary policy.
Unfortunately, Ukraine was forced to implement its exchange policy in the absence of almost all previous conditions, which caused the uncertainty of the state monetary policy as regards its key elements, such as a general orientation (goal), the degree of currency convertanility, the exchange rate regime, foreign exchange market and currency control institutions. In addition, the most negative way on the foreign policy reflected the general uncertainty about the economic policy and overall strategy for economic development. Such uncertainty caused a chain reaction of uncertainty as to some important elements of the exchange policy.
Keywords: exchange (monetary) policy, monetary sovereignty, convertibility, exchange rate, exchange controls, the IMF
JEL: E52, F31
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 41 - 73) | Download | Downloads :1075 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Lavrynenko, I. (24 August, 2013). Economy of independent Ukraine: a hope on development is yet. Rakurs. Retrieved from ua.racurs.ua/333-ekonomika-nezalejnoyi-ukrayiny-nadiya-na-rozvytok-sche-ie [in Ukrainian].
3. Tymochko, N. O., Puchko, O. A., Rudomotkina, L. M. (et all). (2000). The economic development of Ukraine in 50–80 years. Ekonomichna istoriia : lektsii. Kyiv: Kyiv National Economic University. Retrieved from buklib.net/books/33700/ [in Ukrainian].
4. The main directions of economic policy of Ukraine in conditions of independence. Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1698a-12 [in Ukrainian].
5. Melnyk, T. O. (2012). Ukraine's economy during independence losses, failures and prospects. Aktual'ni problemy ekonomiky, 8 (134), 44 [in Ukrainian].
6. Pynzenyk, V. (1998). Horses are not guilty, or Reform or their imitation. Kyiv: Academy [in Ukrainian].
7. Aslund, A. (2009). Ukraine has become a country with a market economy and democracy. Washington: Petersen Institute for International Economics [in Ukrainian].
8. USSR Law of 1 March 1991 on currency regulation, articles 11–12. BestPravo.ru. Retrieved from russia.bestpravo.ru/fed1991/data01/tex11994.htm [in Russian].
9. Monetary sovereignty. Skolkovo, Institute of Law and Development Economics. Retrieved from ild.hse.ru/monetary [in Russian].
10. Zimmermann, C. D. (2013). The Concept of Monetary Sovereignty Revisited. The European Journal of International Law, 24:3, 804. doi: doi.org/10.1093/ejil/cht041
11. Robinson, A. (27 May, 1992). Poland set the pattern? Financial Times, Section IV:IV.
12. Spencer, G. (1992, May, 28–29). The problem of the introduction of the currency in Central and Eastern Europe – practical aspects. International conference. Commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on economical reform. Kyiv, Intelsfera [in Ukrainian].
13. Papava, V. (2001). The International Monetary Fund in Georgia: Achievements and mistakes. Tbilisi [in Russian].
14. Hanke, S. H., Jonung, L. & Schuler K. (1993). Russian Currency and Finance. A currency board approach to reform. London and New York: Routledge.
15. Sharov, A. (1996). Currency convertibility. Kiev: Niva [in Russian].
16. Shelton, J. (2014). A Currency Board for Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 26.
17. Halchynskyi, A. (2012). Heterohenizatsiya system of monetary relations, prospects paradigm. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrainy, 7, 7 [in Ukrainian].
18. Voytytskaya, L. (10 December, 2011). Currency exchange. Forbes Ukraine, 84 [in Russian].
19. "Naftogaz" has begun calculations with "Gazprom" in Russian rubles. (2011). Retrieved from zn.ua/ECONOMICS/naftogaz_nachal_raschety_s_gazpromom_v_rublyah.html [in Russian].
20. Borisov, S. M (2011). The use of the ruble in international settlements and reserves (quantitative aspect). Moscow: IMEMO [in Russian].
21. Stafford, P. (2012). CLS in discussions over renminbi. Clearing and Settlement. Retrieved Oct. 3, 2012 from www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6190523e-233f-11e2-a46b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz42t0Ffa3D
22. China mulls renminbi settlement options (2015, Dec. 4). Reuters. Retrieved Dec. 4, 2015 from www.reuters.com/article/china-markets-currency-idUSL1N13T1BD20151204
23. CLS Bank International Rules (September 23, 2013). Currency Program. Briefing Book. – CLS. Fundamental to FX
24. Mishchenko, V. I., Nidzelska, I. A. (et al.) (2010). A flexible exchange rate regime: the stages of implementation and the possible consequences for the economic development of Ukraine. Scientific analyzes, 15. Kyiv National Bank of Ukraine. Research Center [in Ukrainian].
25. Kapljuk, G., Blohtur, A. (2011). The ups and downs of the hryvnia. Glavkom, September, 01. Retrieved from April 18, 2006 [in Russian].
26. IMF (2007, Nov. 27). Review of Exchange Arrangements, Restrictions, and Controls. Retrieved from www.imf.org/External/NP/pp/2007/eng/112707.pdf
27. Gontareva: NBU is not responsible for the hryvnia (2016). Finance.UA. Retrieved 05.02.2016 from news.finance.ua/ua/news/-/368941/gontareva-nbu-ne-vidpovidaye-za-kurs-gryvni [in Ukrainian].
28. Selinger, P. (2005). Tutorial on multiple currency accounting. 3.2. The "official" solution: translation to a single currency. Retrieved Jun 4, 2005 from www.mathstat.dal.ca/~selinger/accounting/tutorial.html#3.2
29. Regulation number 286-P (2006). On the establishment and publication of the Central Bank of Russia foreign currency official rate against the ruble. Retrieved April 18, 2006 from www.cbr.ru/currency_base/286-p.pdf [in Russian].
30. National Bank has opposed the creation of export credit agencies (02 February, 2016). Gazeta.UA. Retrieved April 18, 2016 from gazeta.ua/articles/economics/_nacbank-vistupiv-proti-stvorennya-eksportnokreditnogo-agentstva/675,482?Mobile=true [in Russian].
31. Jebke, V. F. (1997). International Monetary Law. Moscow: International Relations [in Russian].
32. Blashchuk, Yu. O. (2001). The problems of exchange control. Series: The globalization of financial markets. Kyiv: Print Publishing House DrUk [in Ukrainian].
33. OECD (1993). Centre Exchange Control Policy – Centre for Co-Operation with the European Economies in Transition. Co-Operation with the European Economies in Transition. Retrieved December, 2, 1994 from orka.sejm.gov.pl/proc2.nsf/ustawy/621_u.htm
34. Prawo dewizowe. Ustawa z dnia 2 grudnia 1994 r. orka.sejm.gov.pl/proc2.nsf/ustawy/621_u.htm [in Polish].
35. James, H. (1996). International Cooperation since Bretton Woods. Washington: D.C.
36. Griffith-Jones, S. (1972). The Role and Resources of the Fund. In Posner M. (Ed.) Problems of International Money (1986), 85 (p. 114–115). Wash., D.C., IMF.
37. Kuznetsov, V. (2002). Russia's relations with the IMF. Mirovaja jekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija, 7, 46 [in Russian].
38. IMF (1992, Sept. 22–24). Summary Proceedings of the Forty-Seventh, Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors. Washington, D.C.
39. NDFI (1997). Ukraine International Monetary Fund. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
40. Gomulka, S. (1995). The IMF-Supported Programs of Poland and Russia 1990–1994; Principles, Errors and Results. Warsaw: CASE. Retrieved from www.case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/3414767_036_0.pdf
№ 3/2022
SHAROV Oleksandr Mykolajovych1
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
RHYMED CHRONICLE OF WAR
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 3:44-47 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.03.044 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Response to the article: Mariotti, Sergio (2022, July 4). A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-022-00219-z
Keywords:protectionism, effective functioning of the economy, Russian-Ukrainian war
JEL: N 40
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 44 - 47) | Download | Downloads :72 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Roncaglia A. (2001) The Wealth of Ideas: A History of Economic Throught – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 598 p.
3. Skinner A.S. (1989). Adam Smith. In The Invisible Hand / Ed. by John Eatwell J., Milgate M., Newman P. N.Y.: W W Norton & Co. Р. 1-42 – xiii + 283 p. doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20313-0_1
4. Friedman, M., Friedman R.D. (1980). Free to Choose: A Personal Statement. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. 349 p.
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