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№ 3/2014
UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna2, DIDKOVSKA Lyudmila 3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The impact of climate change on the development of agricultural production
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 3:107-120 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article outlines some special features of climate change manifested in the growth of average temperature, increased level of the oceans and a growing number of natural disasters (droughts, desertification, etc.) The authors characterize a series of sources increasing the volume of the emission of greenhouse gases, which is the main cause of global warming. It is argues that agriculture is both a powerful source and a biological trap of greenhouse gases.
The authors reveal some changes in the territorial distribution of individual key crops (sunflower, corn and sugar beet) in four climatic zones, as well as a gradual replacement of sown areas under those crops to the North and West zones. The tendency will probably hold as the yields in this area appear to be much higher due to more favorable cultivation conditions, which is in turn caused by climate change.
Keywords: climate change, greenhouse gases, precipitation, temperature, agri-food production, dynamics of sown area, the rate of change in acreage, climate zones
JEL: Q18; Q21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 107 - 120) | Download | Downloads :644 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook – Module 1: Why Climate-Smart Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2013). Prodovolcha sіlskohospodarska orhanіzatsіia OON (FАО), www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3325e/i3325e.pdf
3. «Soniachnyi udar» po ekonomitsi: vyzhyvut ne vsi. Informatsiine ahentstvo UNIAN, economics.unian.ua/other/682965-sonyachniy-udar-po-ekonomitsi-vijivut-ne-vsi.html
4. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mіzhuriadova hrupa ekspertіv zі zmіny klіmatu, www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data /ar4/syr/ru/contents.html.
5. Prezentatsiia Adamenko T.I. na kruhlomu stoli «Rozvytok ahrarnoho vyrobnytstva v umovakh pryrodno-klimatychnykh zmin» na temu: Zmina klimatu ta yii vplyv na ahroklimatychni resursy Ukrainy (November 22, 2013). Kiev, IAE NAANU.
6. Prezentatsiia Didukha Ya.P. na kruhlomu stoli «Ekolohichna bezpeka, ekonomichna efektyvnist, sotsialna stabilnist v umovakh hlobalnykh klimatychnykh zmin» na temu: Tendentsii rozvytku roslynnoho pokryvu pid vplyvom klimatychnykh zmin ta yikh eksperymentalni doslidzhennia v Ukraini (December 10, 2013). – Kiev, NISD.
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19. Myasnikovich, M.V., Gusakov, V.G., Lishtvan, I.I., Likhatsevich, A.P. (2002). Strategiya ekologobezopasnoiy rekonstruktsii meliorativnykh sistem i povysheniya produktivnosti meliorirovannykh zemel' Poles'ya: Gosudarstvennaya programma i predlozheniya po ee resheniyu. Vestsi Natsyyanal'naiy akademii navuk Belarusi. Ser. agrarnykh navuk, 4, 3–9.
20. Buriak tsukrovyi. Bіolohіchnі osoblyvostі ta tekhnolohіia vyroshchuvannia buriaka tsukrovoho. Portal «Ahrarnyi sektor Ukrainy», agroua.net/plant/catalog/cg-7/c-22/info/cag-40/
21. Gosprogramma mer po smyagcheniyu posledstviy izmeneniya klimata na 2013–2020 gody utverzhdena v Belarusi. Kabіnet Mіnіstrov Respublіki Belorus, www.government.by/ru/content/5112
22. Rezultaty vykonannia Planu pershocherhovykh zakhodіv z adaptatsіi do zmіny klіmatu [Elektronnyi resurs] / Derzhavne ahentstvo ekolohіchnykh іnvestytsіi Ukrainy – Dostupnyi z: <www.seia.gov.ua /seia/control/main/uk/publish/article/636737>.
№ 1/2017
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1, UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukrainian agriculture: challenges and ways of development under the climate change
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 1:92-107 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.092 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article identifies and substantiates the challenges and prospects of agriculture under the climate change. Ukrainian agriculture serves as an important component of global food security, whose further development is dependent on natural resources, the environment and climate change. Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, however, at the same time, it is suffering from the climate change itself.
Although Ukraine is not included in the list of the most vulnerable to global warming regions on our planet, if no appropriate urgent action is taken, the climate change will continue to pressure on the agricultural ecosystems.
The authors highlight positive (changed terms and conditions of harvesting, increased efficiency of fertilizers, etc.) and negative (deterioration of grain quality, increased frequency of droughts, etc.) effects of the climate change on agriculture; they identify and summarize the main measures to reduce the negative impact of agriculture on climate change and propose various basic adaptation measures that would mitigate the negative impact of the climate change on agriculture.
Under the conditions of climate change, an important factor in improving the efficiency of agriculture is a rigorous distribution of arable lands between separate crops with regard to climate change. One of the important measures to improve the crop rotation pattern is including so called "niche" crops that have a significant potential for the diversification of the oilseed-and-grain pattern, which dominates in the crop rotations in southern Ukraine.
Keywords: climate change, greenhouse gases, precipitation, temperature, the agricultural sector, low-carbon agriculture, niche culture
JEL: Q18; Q21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 92 - 107) | Download | Downloads :846 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Panasyuk, B.Ya. (2015). Global climate change and the economy. Ekonomika APK – Ekonomika APK, 11, 14-22 [in Ukrainian].
3. Udova, L., Prokopenko, K., Didkovska, L. (2014) (Impact of climate change on the development of agricultural production. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 3, 107-120 [in Ukrainian].
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8. Müller, D., Jungandreas, A., Koch, F., Schierhorn, F. (2016). Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Ukraine. Kyiv: Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
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10. Lialko, V.I., Yelistratova, L.O., Apostolov, O.A. (2014). Researches of problems of dryness in the territory of Ukraine with use of land and satellite information. Ukrainskyi zhurnal dystantsiinogo zonduvannia Zemli – Ukrainian journal of remote sensing, 2, 18-28 [in Ukrainian].
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14. Global warming will make unsuitable 2 million hectares of Ukrainian lands in 10 years – meteorologist. (2015). Retrieved from ru.golos.ua/ekonomika/globalnoe_poteplenie_sdelaet_neprigodnyim_2_mln_gektarov_ukrainskoy_zemli_uje_cherez [in Russian].
15. Adamenko, T.I. (2016). Do not panic: climate change may prove useful for agriculture. Retrieved from http:// tyzhden.ua/Society/55863 [in Ukrainian].
16. Chief agro-meteorologist Ukraine: After 20 years, the south of the country could become a desert). (2016). Retrieved from www.economics.unian.net/agro/1165246-glavnyiy-agrometeorolog-ukrainyi-cherez-20-let-yug-stranyi-mojet-prevratitsya-v-pustyinyu.html [in Russian].
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18. Ukraine: Soil fertility to strengthen climate resilience. Preliminary assessment of the potential benefits of conservation agriculture. (2014). FAO/World Bank Cooperative Programme. Rome.
19. Norse, D. (2012). Low carbon agriculture: Objectives and Policy pathways. Environmental Development, 1, 25-39. doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2011.12.004
20. Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlömer, S., Von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T.and Minx, J.C. (Eds.). (2014). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
21. Haidutskyi, I.P. (2016). Priorities for sustainable low-carbon development in Ukraine. Ekonomika ta derzhava – The economy and the state, 9, 23-28 [in Ukrainian].
22. Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (1998). Retrieved from unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kprus.pdf [in Russian].
23. Datsko, L. (2016). No value, and spare. Ekspres – Expres, 24 (8603), 12 [in Ukrainian].
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25. Saiko, V.F. (2008). Agriculture in the context of climate change. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Natsionalnoho naukovoho tsentru "Instytut zemlerobstva UAAN" – Proceedings of the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agriculture UAAS". Kyiv: VD "EKMO" [in Ukrainian].
26. Shevchuk, M.Y. (1996). Lacustrine sapropels of Ukraine: the collection of technologies and recommendations for the use of sapropel including the contaminated land regulations, reference materials. Lutsk: YAAN [in Ukrainian].
27. Butrym, O.V. (2014). Assessing the potential of low-carbon development of plant growing of Ukraine. Visnyk ZHNAEU. Ekonomika prurodokorystuvannia ta ekolohichnyi menedzhment – INEU Herald. Environmental Economics and environmental management, 1-2 (43):2 [in Ukrainian].
28. Climate, environment and economic instability are forcing farmers to develop the production of niche crops. (2015). Retrieved from www.business.ua/companies/polevaya_nish-284919/ [in Russian].
29. The market of buckwheat: stabilization of production and consumption. (2016). Ahrobiznes s'ohodni – Agribusiness today. Retrieved from www.agro-business.com.ua/ekonomichnyi-gektar/1077-rynok-grechky-stabilizatsiia-vyrobnytstva-ta-spozhyvannia.html [in Ukrainian].
30. Plans for spring: 5 niche ideas in the growing. (2016). Agroportal. Retrieved from www.agroportal.ua/publishing/lichnyi-vzglyad/5-nishevykh-idei-v-rastenievodstve [in Russian].
№ 3/2018
UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The niche crops as a new prospective guideline for small farms
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 3:102-117 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.03.102 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the importance and economic potential of the niche crops, which are able to significantly diversify the existing grain-oil specialization of Ukrainian agriculture, reduce the domination of sunflower and rape in the crop rotation, whose excessive cultivation greatly depletes the upper layers of soil. The authors reveal various aspects of growing the niche crops including the advantages (high profitability, diversification of crop rotation, and production diversification) and disadvantages (high costs of sowing material and growing technologies, instability of demand for most niche crops, difficulty in finding the inlets for the niche produce, and uncertain profit expectations), and propose measures for their balancing.
An important feature of the niche crops is the complexity of scaling their production and high resource consumption of their cultivation. The production of niche products can not become a prerogative of large business entities, since they use large areas of land under limited conditions, which is determined by natural and weather conditions, wide gauge machinery, automated control systems and logistics control. In contrast, small business entities can apply the agronomic measures that are necessary to grow niche crops, and therefore the production of the latter serves for them an important alternative in their operation.
The high economic potential of niche crops is due to their high prices implementation and a significant, though unstable, demand on the agro-food market. Growing niche legumes is one of the most promising areas for the development of small agri-business. By observing their production technologies, you can get increased profits from 1 hectare of harvested area, even compared to some very liquid cereals and oil seeds. It has been established that small farms do not have the opportunity to enter foreign markets with traditional crops, but they can improve their profitability due to high quality and niche orientation of their manufactured produce, since such produce enjoys a constantly growing demand on the global market.
Keywords: agrarian sector, small business entities, niche crops, profitability of niche crops, export of niche crops
JEL: Q 12, Q 19
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 102 - 117) | Download | Downloads :2347 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Kernasiuk, Yu. (2015). The export trend – niche cultures. Retrieved from www.agro-business.com.ua [in Ukrainian].
3. Malyshko, Ye. (2016). Niche crops struggle for farmer. Retrieved from www.agro-business.com.ua [in Ukrainian].
4. Skrypchuk, P., Pichura, V., Rybak, V. (2017). Aspects of production of niche products on the basis of the economy of nature use. Balanced nature using, 3, 18-26 [in Ukrainian].
5. Volodin, S. (2017). Methodical bases of fastplant-technologies for the fast production of niche cultures. Agricultural and Resource Economics, 3, 4, 43-56. Retrieved from www.are-journal.com [in Ukrainian].
6. FAOSTAT. Trade. Crops and livestock products. Retrieved from www.fao.org
7. Niches crops can diversify the crop rotation in the Ukrainian fields (2013). Retrieved from www.latifundist.com [in Russian].
8. Niches crops: for and against. Decide to grow or keep traditional crops? (2018). Retrieved from www.superagronom.com [in Ukrainian].
9. Markets. Niches crop corn and sunflower seeds (2017). Retrieved from www.msb.aval.ua [in Ukrainian].
10. Krupa, O., Yasinovska, I. (2016). Bean cultivation is a new trend in agricultural production. Nontraditional types of agricultural production: regeneration and development. Lviv. 12-16 [in Ukrainian].
11. How to perfectly combine niche and basic crops (2018). Retrieve from www.agroreview.com [in Ukrainian].
12. Exclusive conquer land: niche crops (2017). Retrieved from www.klyuch.com.ua [in Ukrainian].
13. Flaxoil (2018). Retrieved from www.dsv-ukraina.com.ua [in Ukrainian].
14. Features of growing flax oil (2017). Retrieved from www.propozitsiya.com [in Ukrainian].
15. The market needs niche crops! (2016). Retrieved from www.agroprofi.com.ua [in Ukrainian].
16. Planted area of agricultural crops under the harvest (2016-2018). State Statistical Service of Ukraine (2016-2018). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
17. Costs of agricultural production in agricultural enterprises (2017). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
18. Areas, production and yield agricultural crops, fruits, berries and grapes. State Statistical Service of Ukraine (2011-2017). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
19. Foreign trade of certain types of goods with countries of the world (2016-2017). State Statistical Service of Ukraine (2016-2017). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
20. Spelt is a promising segment of the European market (2017). Retrieved from www.a7d.com.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
№ 1/2022
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1, UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF ORGANIC PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE: WITH THE THOUGHT OF THE FUTURE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 1:160-176 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.01.160 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article substantiates the importance of the production of organic agricultural products as a component of a healthy lifestyle, as well as ensuring the preservation and restoration of the environment. The authors reveal the ecological, economic and social benefits of organic production, in particular, preservation of the nation’s natural and health; reproduction of soil fertility; increased competitiveness of domestic producers on internal and foreign markets; improving the welfare of the rural population, etc. It is stated that organic production includes the conscious use of soil as an ecosystem; application of production methods and preventive protection of crops. It is established that presently the interest of consumers in the consumption of environmentally friendly foods, whose production has no negative impact on the environment, is currently growing.
The study of the global organic market shows an active growth in both the number of organic producers and the output of organic products. The market of organic products in Ukraine is at an early stage of development, but there is a steady trend towards increased number of organic producers, expanded range of certified products, and increased exports of organic foodstuffs.
The authors analyze a number of factors hindering the development of organic production in Ukraine, in particular, the lack of public awareness of the properties of organic foods and their difference from conventional ones; shortage of qualified specialists in producing organic foods; insufficient solution of logistical problems; low purchasing power of the population, etc. The key changes in EU legislation on organic production are considered, one of the important innovations being the possibility of using "group certification", which allows small farmers to unite, produce and jointly pass the certification of organic products. Emphasis is placed on the prospects of this model for Ukrainian producers. The study shows the possibility of using organic foods in schools based on the example of the positive experience of EU countries – for the growing a healthy, conscious and responsible generation that will take care of the future of the state.
Keywords:agriculture; organic production; group certification model; organic products market; Healthy Eating
JEL: Q13, Q57
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 160 - 176) | Download | Downloads :227 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Dudar, T.H. (2014). Development of organic agricultural production as a basis for ensuring the quality and safety of agricultural products in Ukraine. Naukovyj visnyk Mukachivs'koho derzhavnoho universytetu. Ser. Ekonomika – Scientific herald Mukachevo State University. Series Economics, 1, 11-15 [in Ukrainian].
3. Kudinova, I.P., Kholiavko, D.M. (2017). Consultation on organic production as an important component of food security. Problemy innovatsijno-investytsijnoho pozvytku – Problems of innovation and investment development, 12, 159-165 [in Ukrainian].
4. Chajka, T.O. (2012). Obstacles to the development of organic agricultural production. Vìsn. agrar. nauki Pričornomor'â – Ukrainian Black Sea region agrarian science, 2, 126-131 [in Ukrainian].
5. Shubravs'ka, O.V. (2017). Organic agriculture in Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 116-128. doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.116 [in Ukrainian].
6. Codex Alimentarius (1999). Guidelines for the Produstion, Prosessing, Labelling and Marketing of Organisally Prodused Foods (GL-32). Retrieved from www.fao.org/input/download/standards/360/sxg _032e.pdf
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8. Goewie, E.A. (2003). Organic agriculture in the Netherlands; developments and challenges. NJAS: Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 50:2, 153-169. doi.org/10.1016/S1573-5214(03)80004-0
9. Law of Ukraine "On the basic principles and requirements for organic production, circulation and marking of organic products" from 02.08.2018 No. 2496-VIII. Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2496-19 [in Ukrainian].
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12. Orsini, S., Padel, S., Lampkin, N. (2018). Labour .Use on Organic Farms: a Review of Research since 2000. Organic Farming, 4: 1б, 7-15. doi.org/10.12924/of2018.04010007
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№ 2/2023
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1, UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
(Post)war prospects of growing niche crops in the agricultural sector
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 2:118-133 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.02.118 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The pre-war development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine has taken place according to the model of modernization, based on specialization, intensification and expansion of the scale of production. However, European experience shows that this model is viable only in conditions of stable markets. The economic crisis caused by the hostilities forces agricultural producers to change their specialization in favor of diversified production. One of the ways to raise the economic sustainability of farms is to expand their activities through the production of niche crops.
The article reveals the relevance of the production of niche agricultural crops during the (post)war period. The authors outline the main advantages (higher sales price, better adaptability to weather and climate conditions, the possibility of balancing crop rotation, lower competition on the market, etc.) that shape the economic potential of the above mentioned crops, and highlight the risks (the need for special agricultural technologies, high production cost, high price volatility, etc.), which inhibit their cultivation.
It is noted that the expansion of crop rotation due to the inclusion of leguminous niche crops should become part of a broader (post)war strategy for the sustainable development of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Cultivation of niche vegetables is a component of resource-conserving agriculture, because crop rotation in vegetable production supports soil structure, controls soil erosion, and increases biodiversity. Obstacles to the spread of niche vegetable production are highlighted. The authors consider various new vegetables that are currently becoming part of the culture of consumption and have considerable prospects (sweet potato, Jerusalem artichoke, etc.), and point out the possibility of adapting the European experience of growing various vegetables in combination with the installation of solar panels (agrovoltaics).
Under the conditions of (post)war recovery, the cultivation of niche energy crops would contribute to the diversification of agricultural production, strengthening the economic stability of agricultural producers, increasing the level of environmental friendliness of the energy sector, and shaping the energy independence of rural areas. The article highlights the European experience of mapping agro-ecological technologies, which will make it easier for agricultural producers to introduce new crops, in particular the niche ones, and technologies.
Keywords:agricultural sector, sustainable development, diversification of production, niche crops, leguminous crops, vegetable crops, energy crops
JEL: Q 12, Q 19
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 118 - 133) | Download | Downloads :60 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Darnhofer, І. (2014) Resilience and why it matters for farm management. European Review of Agricultural Economics.,41 (3), 461-484. doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbu012.
3. Mirzoieva, T., Tomashevskyi, V. (2023). Analysis of the current state of the production of niche cereal crops. Taurida Scientific Herald. Series: Economics, 15, 99-108. doi.org/10.32782/2708-0366/2023.15.12 [in Ukrainian].
4. Kernasiuk, Yu. (2015). Niche cultures in the strategy of innovative diversification of agribusiness. Retrieved from agro-business.com.ua/agro/ekonomichnyi-hektar/item/22969-nishevi-kultury-v-stratehii-innovatsiinoi-dyversyfikatsii-ahrobiznesu.html [in Ukrainian].
5. Vozhegova, R.A., Borovik, V.O., Grabovsky, M.B., Marchenko, T.Yu., Grabovskaya, T.O. (2022). Niche cultures – new opportunities for the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. Agrarian innovations. 13, 181-189. doi.org/10.32848/agrar.innov.2022.13.27 [in Ukrainian].
6. Volodin, S.A. (2021). Stimulating the production of niche crops in Ukraine based on fastplant technologies. Ekonomika APK – Economics of the agro -industrial complex, 2, 82–91. doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202102082 [In Ukrainian].
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