The authors consider the basic regularities of the formation of long-term imports trends and assess the confidence bands for an import level by economic activities. The article also defines the main long-term imports trends.

Keywords:free trade, imports, range of imports forecasting, imports indicator, import level

Objective assessment of the impact of Ukraine's accession to WTO on exports and imports is complicated by superposition of an additional powerful factor – the global economic crisis which makes distinguishing the impact of those factors using direct calculations impossible.
The above mentioned fact has led to attempts to obtain unbiased estimates by methods of mathematical statistics separating the impact on exports and imports of each of these two factors.
To analyze the changes in Ukrainian exports (imports) in 2009-2010, the author used regression dependencies built on database for 2000-2008 in which the volume of exports depends on output and hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate. The absence of a regression constant term reflects the absence of exports (imports) in the absence of economic activities.
Using regression equations, the author calculated expected values of exports (imports) for each economic activity and determined confidence intervals for standard probability (0.95). If the actual value of exports (imports) exceeds the upper limit of the confidence interval and calculated Fisher F-statistic is greater than the critical value for default probability, it is an evidence of positive impact of Ukraine's accession to the WTO on country's exports (imports); negative if the value goes beyond the lower limit.

Keywords: foreign trade, WTO, mathematical statistics

The implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement poses before Ukraine, the task of accelerated modernization of the economy. In order to determinate the prospects for economic development, we have developed a dynamic simulation model based on forecast tables "input-output", relationships between macroeconomic indicators and limitations that define the conditions of economic and environmental security.
To construct the model, we used coefficients of direct costs generated on the basis data of the developed countries, under the assumption that the predicted values for Ukraine are determined by the current values in developed countries. One of the features of the model consists in using investment function instead of productive one. The coefficients of the investment function, at the beginning of the forecast period (2015), were determined according to Ukrainian statistics, and those as of the end of period (2030) – according to data on the developed countries.
In constructing the model, a new indicator was used, namely the coefficient of technological correlation. During the research, several new empirical laws were found which demonstrates a functional relationship between the volume of external borrowing needed to achieve financial self-sufficiency of Ukraine’s economy (possibility of development without external borrowing) and the following parameters: terms of borrowings, interest rate and marginal growth rate of output. Also, new empirical dependencies were found for the value of external debt and GDP growth per investment unit.

Keywords: macroeconomics, simulation models, tables "input-output", investment, external borrowings, growth rates