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№ 4/2016
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Neo-industrialization in Ukraine: are there macroeconomic background and investment potential?
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 4:48-69 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.04.048 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article estimates the level of investment readiness of Ukraine's economy for the new industrialization. Macroeconomic analysis has shown that the lack of investments is caused by significant decapitalization of the economy as a whole and in particular the non-financial corporations. The dominating trends towards reduction of the rate of net savings and the losses of capital reflect the sorry state of the real sector. The instability of financial conditions of the companies causes lack of equity and debt bondage, and prevents them from maintaining a proper level of gross savings, and hence that of gross fixed capital formation.
The high rate of debt bondage of the companies combined with ultra-high lending rates lead to increased costs of servicing and repayment of the debts, payment of property incomes, rise in production costs and consequently reduction of financial results. Such as financial results are the source of savings and the tax base their decrease causes the further reduction of investment resources in the economy and budget revenues.
Due to the long-term shortfall of gross disposable income in the real sector, which was caused by disruption of the economically grounded distribution of income among the institutional sectors and withdrawal of capital from economic turnover owing to shadowing and growing share of the offshore economy, the narrowing of the main sources of the fixed capital formation and shortage of investment resources in the economy happens. As a result, instead of investment progress, which is necessary for the neo-industrialization, there is an investments decline.
The author proposes various conceptual approaches to reviving investments for the transition to the model of economic development based on new industrialization.
Keywords: neo-industrialization of the economy, investment resources, gross fixed capital formation, net savings, gross savings, institutional sectors, net borrowing, capital investment
JEL: Е200, Е210, Е220, Е270, О140
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 48 - 69) | Download | Downloads :985 |
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2. Liashenko, V.I., Kotov, Ye.V. (2015). Ukraine XXI: neoindustrial state or "crash project"? National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for economy of industry, Poltava University of Economics and trade. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
3. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (2016). The plan of priority actions of the Government in 2016. Approved by the decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of May 27, 2016 No. 418-r. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/document/249113344/R0418-00.doc [in Ukrainian].
4. Krugman, Paul R. (1988). Deindustrialization, Reindustrialization, and the Real Exchange Rate. NBER Working Paper, May, 2586. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w2586
5. Peres, Carlota. (2011). Technological revolution and financial capital. The dynamics of bubbles and periods of prosperity. Moscow: Izd-vo "Delo" ANH [in Russian].
6. Ventura, Jaume, Voth, Hans-Joachim. (2015). Debt into growth: how sovereign debt accelerated the first industrial revolution. NBER Working Paper, June, 21280. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w21280
7. Aizenman, Joshua, Sushko, Vladyslav. (2011). Capital flow types, external financing needs, and industrial growth: 99 countries, 1991–2007. NBER Working Paper, July, 17228. doi: doi.org/10.3386/w17228
8. Jaremski, Matthew S. (2013). National banking's role in U.S. industrialization, 1850-1900. NBER Working Paper, February, 18789. Retrieved from www.nber.org/papers/w18789
9. Holand, Yu. M. (2013). The experience of industrialization under NEP and its application in modern conditions Voprosy jekonomiki – Economic issues, 10, 109-135 [in Russian].
10. Kriuchkova, I.V. (2016). Macro-structural factors of investment crisis in the economy of Ukraine for the period 1991-2015. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 23–38. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.01.023 [in Ukrainian].
11. Skrypnychenko, M.I. (Ed.). (2015). Model identify macroeconomic imbalances in Ukraine. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
12. Zymovets', V.V. (2010). State financial policy of economic development. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
13. Zymovets', V.V. (2013). The accumulation of capital in the real sector and economic policy of the state. Visnyk Instytutu ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia – Bulletin of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting, 39–46 [in Ukrainian].
14. Bohdan, T., Bohdan, I. (2013). Modeling of the influence of debt policy on the economic development of Ukraine. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrainy – Bulletin of the National Bank of Ukraine, 10, 20–27 [in Ukrainian].
15. Danylenko, A.I., Zymovets', V.V., Shelud'ko, N.M. (2015). The de-capitalization of the financial sector of Ukrainian economy: reasons and consequences. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 4, 7-28 [in Ukrainian].
16. Danylenko, A.I. (Ed.). (2014). The impact of the crisis on the finances of the real sector of economy of Ukraine and ways of their improvement. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
17. Salikhova, O.B., Bak, H.O. (2015). Foreign technology as a determinant of investment and innovation processes in Ukraine. Stratehichni priorytety – Strategic priorities, 2(35), 93-105 [in Ukrainian].
18. Heyets, V.M. (2016). Economy of Ukraine: key problems and prospects. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 7-22. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.01.007 [in Ukrainian].
19. World Bank (2016). Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS
20. UNCTAD (2015). The least developed countries report 2015. doi: doi.org/10.18356/8b32c89b-en
21. Casini, Paolo, Kay, Neil, Pantea, Smaranda, Pashev, Konstantin (ed). EU Structural Change 2015. European Commission
22. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2016). The Budget Of Ukraine 2015. Statistical Yearbook. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
23. World Bank (2016). Gross savings (% of GDP). Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?view=chart
24. UNIDO (2013). Competitive Industrial Performance Report 2012/2013. Retrieved from www.unido.org
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27. Cheren'ko, L.M. (2015). New forms of poverty in Ukraine: the main manifestations and assessment. Demohrafiia ta sotsial'na ekonomika – Demography and social economy, 1, 11–21 [in Ukrainian].
28. "The money should be kept in banks": Holodnitsky showed how odious judge Chaus kept the original "income" (2016). Ukrainian National News Agency, August 10. Retrieved from www.unian.net/society/ [in Russian].
29. How many in Ukraine $. (2016). Financial portal "MinFin", October 21. Retrieved from minfin.com.ua [in Russian].
30. The legend of income declarations. Who has shocked Ukraine there wealth? (2016). Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth, October 31. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2016/10/31/609596/ [in Ukrainian].
31. The people's deputies about 9.2 billion, of which 6.7 billion – in cash, – Gerus. (2016). Censor.net, October 31. Retrieved from censor.net.ua/news/412887/u_narodnyh_deputatov_okolo_92_mlrd_grn_iz_kotoryh_67_mlrd_nalichnye_gerus [in Russian].
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33. Shums'ka, S.S. (2015). Monetary policy and economic recovery in Ukraine. Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 3, 21-41 [in Ukrainian].
34. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2016). The profitability of operating activity of enterprises by types of economic activity. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
35. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2016). Net profit (loss) of enterprises by kinds of economic activities. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
36. The Ministry of economic development and trade of Ukraine (2016). Trends of the shadow economy in Ukraine And quarter of 2016. Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&tag=RozvitokRealnogoSektoraEkonomiki [in Ukrainian].
37. Korablin, S. (2016). Offshore depletion. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine, May 13. Retrieved from gazeta.dt.ua/macrolevel/ofshorne-visnazhennya-_.html [in Ukrainian].
38. Mykola Jankowski is becoming in the West the symbol of Ukrainian corruption. (2016). Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine, July, 16. Retrieved from gazeta.dt.ua/LAW/ [in Ukrainian].
39. National Bank of Ukraine (2016). Interest rates on new loans to non-financial corporations over the proper direction in terms of currencies. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
40. OECD (2016). Long-term interest rates. doi: doi.org/10.1787/factbook-2015-36-en
41. OECD (2016). Short-term interest rates. Retrieved from data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm#indicator-chart
42. Lytvyn, V.V. (2014). Evaluation of the components of national savings in Ukraine: the formalization of approaches and identification of trends. Ekonomichnyj chasopys XXI – Economic journal XXI, 5-6, 52-55 [in Ukrainian].
43. Mylashko, O.H., Piskun, A.V. (2015). A comprehensive statistical analysis of national saving of Ukraine. Naukovyj visnyk Khersons'koho derzhavnoho universytetu – Scientific Bulletin of Kherson state University, 15, part 4, 161-164 [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2017
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Localization of production – a world practice and conclusions for Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 2:31-56 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.031 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Despite the prevalence of localization measures in the practice of countries with different levels of development, localization requirements in Ukraine are still rare. Meanwhile, the dependence of Ukrainian economy on imports increases and acquires threatening dimensions. The expansion of imports begets weakening of country's economic stability, nourishes the structural crisis, impedes the development of industry, and causes a situation where imports suppress production instead of complementing it.
These problems represent the focus of the present study, which deals with theoretical and practical aspects of production localization. The study aims at determining the essence and forms of the requirements for localization, generalizing the world experience in applying such requirements with identifying their effectiveness, analyzing the specificity of such requirements in individual sectors of economy, and substantiating the economic necessity of their use in Ukraine.
The estimation of the import dependence of Ukrainian economy and, in particular, its industrial sector, based on data of the input-output tables allows detecting an excessive level of import dependence of Ukrainian economy and industry. It is proved that the proportions in which imports are involved in the economic processes are extraordinary, and hence a corresponding regulation with the application of systemic measures for production localization is required. The author identifies the areas of desirable application of the localization requirements for those industries that are critically dependent on imports by intermediate consumption, final consumption and gross capital formation, as well as various promising types of production with a solid scientific and innovation base.
Keywords: localization of production, foreign direct investments, import dependence of economy, value chain, WTO rules, industrial policy
JEL: D 570, Е 220, E 230, F 210, L 500, O 140, O
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 31 - 56) | Download | Downloads :787 |
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№ 4/2018
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Industrial development in decentralized conditions: experience of leading industrial countries and conclusions for Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 4:38-64 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.04.038 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the issues of industrial development in the conditions of decentralization of power and economic authorities of the state, which has been launched in Ukraine. Since the problem of the deindustrialization of the national economy remains very acute, this study presents the tools and instruments to address it, which has a policy of decentralization in its arsenal. The purpose of this work is to reveal the content of decentralization, generalize the ap-proaches to ensuring economic growth and increasing public welfare on the basis of regional industrial development, as well as on the substantiation of the feasibility of their use in Ukraine.
The author highlights various essential aspects of decentralization and reveals the nature of its influence on the investment climate. Generalized the approaches to decentralization of state powers and finding effective forms of regional socio-economic development on an industrial basis, on the examples of countries-leaders in the world industrial-technological sphere. Justified the expediency of deepening decentralization and industrial development in order to strengthen the economic capacity of Ukrainian regions. The author constructs various econometric models to show the presence of a long-term statistically significant influence of industrial business and budget decentralization on the welfare of national population (2001-2016).
A cluster analysis was carried out that confirmed the existence of the impact of fiscal decentralization and the development of production business (including industrial and agricultural) on the welfare in the country's aggregate regions. Also, it allowed to determine the priority of the processing industry in comparison with other types of production in ensuring the prosperity of the regional population. It is shown that the key to improving the condition of regional economy should be the development of a new industrial sector based on the technologies of the Industry 4.0 in line with the strategy of development of the country's industrial complex.
Keywords: decentralization of power and economic authorities of the state, industrial development, regional development, investment climate, production localization, industry targeting, innovative clusters, public welfare, community capacity
JEL: С22, D69, H72, L50, O14, O018, O57, R12
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 38 - 64) | Download | Downloads :688 |
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№ 4/2019
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Investment climate as a factor of industrial development in Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 4:70-103 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.04.070 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the provision of industrial development based the attraction of in-vestment depending on the changing characteristics of the investment climate. Since the problems of stagnation of the industrial production, its low productivity, excessive financial vulnerability (in view of high debt dependence and low solvency of the sector’s companies), capital losses, and the level of profitability, which is insufficient for reproduction, all remain relevant, the study offers those means of their solution that are related to attracting investments and improving the investment climate.
The author highlights essential aspects of the investment climate and its impact on attract-ing investment in the industrial development. Conducted a comparative analysis of the indicators of industrial activities depending on the characteristics of the investment climate on the example of reference groups of foreign countries and Ukraine, which revealed various problematic aspects of the conditions of investment in Ukrainian industry. A set of econometric models was developed with whose help the author substantiates the effect of the system of factors of the investment climate (namely: macroeconomic stability, development level of the goods, financial and labor markets, innovative activities and technological transfer) on the industrial development and assesses the changes caused by thelong term shifts in the parameters of the industrial system.
The author shows the feasibility of implementing a comprehensive approach to improving investment conditions with the use of various public policy instruments that determine the investment climate (including macroeconomic, monetary, and scientific and innovation policies as well as policies of the expansion of product inlets and regulation of the labor market) to ensure industrial development. In particular, in the context of the support of innovation, the article proposes the application of smart specialization strategies, which envisages modernization and diversification of regional industrial potential, and enhancing their entrepreneurial capabilities based on the introduction of technological innovations.
Keywords:investment climate, industrial development, attraction of investment, macroeconomic stability, financial market, credit resources, domestic market, exports, imports, innovation, technological transfer, labor market, wages
JEL: С 22, E 27, F 21, J 21, L 50, O 14, O 16, O
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 70 - 103) | Download | Downloads :593 |
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№ 3/2021
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
STRUCTURAL SHIFTS: IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 3:59-76 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.03.059 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The leading feature of the modern world has been the deep structural shifts caused by radical transformations of its industrial landscape. The corresponding transformations were caused by changes in the internal structure of national industrial sectors and were based on the technologies of the "fourth industrial revolution", whose emergence gave additional impetus to the structural transformation of the world economy, intensifying competition in global markets. The Covid crisis was a catalyst for accelerating changes in the intersectoral proportions of the world economy, complicating the existing structural problems.
The study shows that the key feature of the model of structural changes that occurred in Ukraine's economy after the global financial crisis was the accelerated reduction of the industrial sector, especially the loss of potential of the processing industry, its technological simplification and narrowing the variety of industries. This was accompanied by increased dominance of the tertiary sector and the growth of the primary sector. Excessive share in the structure of production is occupied by industries, whose mode of reproduction is able to generate only relatively low rates of economic growth (mining and related industries of primary processing in industry and agriculture). Such a trend of structural shifts is not able to generate the necessary boost of economic growth, and much less so as it is burdened by the risks of deepening structural inconsistency of Ukraine’s economy with the cardinal changes taking place in the world economy.
Comparison of parameters and trends of structural changes in Ukraine’s economy and in a comparable group of countries and the world as a whole shows that the changes in the structure of Ukraine’s economy were much higher, but did not create sufficient potential for sustainable economic growth. The author analyzes the gaps in labor productivity between economic activities and sectors of Ukraine’s economy, as well as changes in their dynamics, which leads to the conclusions about the relationship between the rates of technological development of different sectors of Ukraine’s economy and the gradual slowdown of the already imperfect technological development of this country’s industry with further loss of competitiveness. Estimated the degree of influence of such factors as investments and technological innovations, as well as shifts in the structure of employment on the increase of labor productivity in Ukraine’s economy. Using the apparatus of econometric modeling, the author evaluates the dependence of the dynamics of GDP growth on the change of the indices of the physical volume of GVA in the sectors of this country’s economy.
Keywords:structural changes, index of structural changes, labor productivity, economic growth, industrial sector, manufacturing, technological development
JEL: С2; C5; F6; J24; L5; L6; O2; O3; O4
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 59 - 76) | Download | Downloads :350 |
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№ 2/2023
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Influence of FDI on structural changes in the economy in the context of prospects for post-war recovery of Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 2:33-65 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.02.033 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The recovery of the national economy, which is undergoing great destruction as a result of full-scale Russian aggression in Ukraine, will require attracting not only domestic but also foreign investments. The post-war experience of various countries shows that the inflow of foreign capital contributed to meeting the needs for investment resources for the reconstruction of the economy and its structural modernization. The recent history of the rapid rise of newly industrialized countries also demonstrates that foreign investments enable the transformation of the structure of the recipient economy, and its progress towards higher levels of industrial development.
The purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of the accumulation and sectoral distribution of FDI in the Ukrainian economy, to assess the effects of FDI to change the structure and dynamics of economic growth, and to identify approaches to attracting foreign investment in the context of prospects for post-war recovery and economic restructuring.
The article examines the accumulation of FDI in the Ukrainian economy in historical retrospect, analyzes the distribution of their reserves among the sectors and subsectors, as well as their geographical origin. The author assesses the depth of penetration of the FDI into the economy in general and into the technological sectors within the processing industry, in particular, and reveals various contradictory effects created by foreign investments for the development of the national economy, technological progress, and economic security.
Using regression modeling, the article investigates the FDI as a factor capable of contributing to the transformation of Ukraine’s economy, and changing the structural distribution of added value and employment between sectors. The simulation results confirm that the accumulation of FDI really affects the dynamics of GVA production and employment in economic sectors, that is, it causes structural shifts in the economy. At the same time, sectoral assessments reveal the mixed effectiveness of this factor in terms of the strength and direction of changes in the structure of the economy.
Keywords:foreign direct investments, structural changes in the economy, employment structure, industrial sector of the economy, manufacturing, technological structure of industry, post-war recovery of the economy
JEL: C2, F21, J21, L16, N4
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 33 - 65) | Download | Downloads :59 |
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