Articles by : Kuzmenko O. № 3/2013
Forecasting methods and models
KUZMENKO O. 1
1Sumy State University
Assessment of the openness level of the reinsurance market on the basis of gravity modeling
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 3:134-144 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
One of the prerequisites for a successful development of the financial services market is the effective functioning of the reinsurance market, which acts as a complex dynamic system. On that ground, the article provides a review of the market as a network structure that allows to get rid of some shortcomings in the management decisions of the market subjects (especially on its segmentation and clustering). The necessity to improve the statistical methods of quantitative estimates of the reinsurance market and increase the range of its comprehensive analysis determines the relevance of the study of market as a social network model.
The level of openness of the reinsurance market represents a characteristic of solvency, operation stability and rating of the market participants. As it is based on the formalization of relationships and interdependencies between the parties, the author provides a description and forecasting of the structural functioning of the domestic reinsurance market with the use of gravity modeling.
Modeling the openness level of the reinsurance market with the use of gravity modeling provides an opportunity to obtain the following results: to quantify the strength of interaction between the considered and other contractor countries in the context of reinsurance activity; to cluster the directions and sources of reinsurance operations; to determine economically sound strategy and tactics of behavior of the reinsurance market subjects; and to identify priorities for the selection of countries for the reinsurance of own risks and those transmitting part of their insurance premiums to reinsurance based on the insurers’ rating
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 134 - 144) | Download | Downloads :612 |
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№ 1/2017
Forecasting methods and models
KUZMENKO O. 1, KASCHA M. 2
1Sumy State University
2Sumy State University
Modeling the diagnostics of bankruptcy on Ukraine's insurance market based on harmonic analysis
ABSTRACT ▼
The article focuses on the characteristics and mathematical formalization of an approach to the diagnostics of the bankruptcy of agents on the insurance market. Analyzed the characteristic space of the estimation of the bankruptcy of subjects on Ukraine's insurance market for its diagnosis. On the basis of Irwin method, the authors identify the abnormal levels of time series as indicators of early diagnosis of a bankruptcy. Using Fourier series, a decomposition of systemic constituents of the above mentioned indicators and filtration of seasonal components are performed, short-term forecasts are calculated and a mathematical description of the trend and oscillatory components is made. Formulated various practical recommendations for tactical and strategic decisions at different levels of management of the activities of insurance market agents, allowing the latter a timely adaptation to the possibility of adverse changes.
Keywords: insurance market, diagnosis of a bankruptcy, prediction, Irwin method, harmonic analysis, decomposition analysis
JEL: C650
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 146 - 157) | Download | Downloads :713 |
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