Articles by : Shynkaruk Lidiia № 3/2005
Economy and the formation of the new system of economic management
SHYNKARUK Lidiia 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Structurization of property incomes as a source of national savings
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2005; 3:89-113 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author proposes various approaches to the structurization of property incomes as a source of national savings and an instrument of their regulation. The article reveals the role and place of institutional sectors in the formation of optimal proportions of the accumulation of fixed capital and justifies various guidelines to increase the qualitative structure of sectoral incomes
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 89 - 113) | Download | Downloads :498 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Ekonomika Ukrainy, pidsumky peretvoren ta perspektyvy zrostannia, Za red. akad. NAN Ukrainy V.M.Geytsia , K., "Fort", 2000, 432 s.
2. Natsionalni zaoshadzhennia ta ekonomichne zrostannia, Za red. d-ra ekon. nauk B.Ye.Kvasniuka, K., "Lesia", 2000, 304 s.
№ 3/2013
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
SHYNKARUK Lidiia 1, BARANOVSKA I. 2, HERASIMOVA Olena Arkadiyvna3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Forecasted trends of the national economic development in the context of the creation of FTA with the EU
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 3:38-58 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents a forecast based assessment of the change of output by economic activities due to the conclusion of Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU and the corresponding creation of a free trade area. The assessment has been done in accordance with a methodology based on the use of the dynamic input-output model, with the inclusion of the corresponding substitution elasticities, which makes it possible to assess the possibilities and risks, on the domestic market, for Ukraine’s importers and producers in order to timely avoid losses, which may take place due to the accession to the free trade area. The calculations of the effects of the integration were made in accordance with the structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade formed after 2010–2011. The equation of intersectoral balance was constructed based on the input-output tables in basic prices of 2010. The elasticity rates of exports and imports were calculated in accordance with the econometric equations obtained on the data of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2006–2011.
The authors point out that the liberalization of the trade regime, due to the creation of the free trade area would contribute to increased turnover between Ukraine and the EU Member countries. However, the maximum effect will be observed in the first year of the Agreement’s action, when the maximum reduction of the customs tariffs takes place, and in the future, due to the raw materials character of the exports to the EU countries, this effect will disappear. The multiplier effect appearing due to the trade intensification and showing itself in the distribution of incomes obtained from increased exports, will only partly improve the output indicators without changing the general tendency.
Taking into account the fact that the positive influence of the trade effects will be short, the authors justify the need of developing and introducing effective measures for individual economic sectors aimed at overcoming the disproportions of their technological structure, whose aggravation could lead to further losses on the domestic and foreign markets.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 38 - 58) | Download | Downloads :713 |
REFERENCES ▼
1.,Uzyakov M.N. Otrasl` v sisteme mezhotraslevykh svyazej: vozmozhnosti analiza i prognozirovaniya, M., YNP RAN, 2002, 215 s.
2.Yaremenko Yu.V., Strukturnye izmeneniya v socialisticheskoj ekonomike, M., “Mysl`, 1981, 300 s.
3.Almon C., The Craft of Economic Modeling, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, USA, 2002, 139 p.
4.Hiau Looi Kee, Nicita Alessandro, Olarreaga Marcelo, Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions, World Bank eLibrary, November 2004, 36 p., <
elibrary.worldbank.org/content/ workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-3452>.
5.Leontief W., Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic System of the United States, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1936, № 18(3), P. 105–125.
6.Meade D.S., The U.S. Benchmark IO Table. History, Methodology, and Myths Elektronnyy resurs, World Inforum conference, Japan, 27 p.
www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/conferences/ 2010/Made.pdf>.
7.Meade D.S,. Nyhus D.E., Using the Inforum Lift and Mudan models to investigate the impacts of Cap and Trade Legislations on Internatioanl Leakages, Institute of Economic Research, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan, Research Papers, 2010, № 4, P. 3–40.
8.Knobel` A.Yu,. Ocenka funkcii sprosa na import v Rossii, Prikladnaya ekonometrika, 2011, № 4, S. 3–26.
9.Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy "Pro skhvalennia Prognozu ekonomichnogo i sotsialnogo rozvytku Ukrainy na 2012 rik ta osnovnykh makropokaznykiv ekonomichnogo i sotsialnogo rozvytku Ukrainy na 2013 i 2014 roky" vid 31.08.2011 r. № 907, ofits. sayt Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy, <zakon1.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/907-2011-%D0%BF>.
10.World Economic Outlook Text October 2012, International Monetary Fund, <www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/ index.aspx>.
11.Ukraina: perspektyvy rozvytku. Konsensus-prognoz, ofits. sayt Ministerstva ekonomichnogo rozvytku i torgivli Ukrainy, 2012, Vyp. 31, 36 s., <www.me.gov.ua/file/link/193160/file/Consensus 2012 November %20ukr.pdf>.№ 4/2013
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
SHYNKARUK Lidiia 1, TYSHCHUK Tetyana 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Modeling investment flows in input-output Models
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 4:7-19 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
Input-output models are a powerful instrument of scenario based analysis of economic policy measures. However, in their classical structure, they do not allow to take into account the processes of the funding of such measures. Most of such measures in transition economies are related to the attraction of external financial resources, which is the reason why, in their planning, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of both the GDP components and the savings-investments balance. In order to expand analytical capacities, the classical input-output models should be enlarged by adding equations reflecting the flows of savings, investments and borrowings.The proposed approach allows to constructs an input-output model of the development of the domestic economy based on the well known system of the equations of input-output models to calculate the processes of the formation of national savings, attraction of external financial resources with their transformation into investments and the impact of those processes on the formation of domestic demand. Based on such a model, one can make a quantitative assessment of macroeconomic effects of the economic policy of encouraging the investment demand in a country, which is very urgent under the modern conditions of the search for ways of the expansion of the domestic market in Ukraine. Thanks to the reconciliation of the indicators of saving-investment balance with the relationships of the classical input-output model, they may be built in into the existing input-output models in order to expand their analytical possibilities. The developed model is based on the main relationships of the national accounts and the structure of investment flows systemized in the form of a matrix. The matrix of investment flows is built based on the indicators of capital accounts and statistics of capital investments. All input data for the model are available in the official statistics of Ukraine and OECD countries, which makes it possible to compare the structures of different economies in order to analyze the practice of use and efficiency of certain economic policy measures.The developed methodology has been tested for the task of analysis of the efficiency of use of the instruments encouraging business activities in the economy through increasing capital investments of the public sector. Calculations have been made for most European countries, which makes it possible to compare the structural peculiarities of different economies shaping the processes of the multiplication investment funds. Based on the obtained results, it is established that the state expenditures in Ukraine allow to encourage economic activities; however, the obtained GDP increase is lower than the volumes of invested funds. And the results of the use of such instruments have a postponed effect, although, as compared with other countries, that effect is quite powerful due to the well established intersectoral ties.
Keywords:input-output model, inter-industry balance, matrix of investment flows, investment-savings balance, economic policy analysis
JEL:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 19) | Download | Downloads :572 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Skrypnychenko, M.I. (2004). Sektoralni ta mizhsektoralni modeli ekonomichnogo rozvytku. K., Feniks.
2. Ekonomicheskaya i tekhnologicheskaya kooperaciya v razreze sektorov EEP i Ukrainy. SPb. : TsYY EABR, 2013.
3. Shynkaruk, L.V., Baranovska, I. V., Gerasimova, O. A. (2013). Prognozni otsinky rozvytku natsionalnoi ekonomiky v umovakh stvorennia ZVT z YeS. Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 3, 38–58.
4. Shirov, A.A., Yantovskij, A. A. (2011). Ocenka mul`tiplikativnykh effektov v ekonomike. Vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya. EKO, 2,
ecotrends.ru/component/content/article/753-2011/391-2011-12-20-13-19-07
5. Gil`mundinov, V.M. ( 2011). Razvitie metodologii mezhotraslevykh issledovanij na osnove koncepcii obshego ravnovesiya i modelirovaniya IV kvadranta mezhotraslevogo balansa Modelirovanie v zadachakh gorodskoj i regional`noj ekonomiki : materialy Vseros. konf., posvyash. 75-letiyu so dnya rozhdeniya pervogo direktora SPb EMI RAN, zam. pred. Prezidiuma SPb NC RAN, prof. B.L. Ovsievicha (1936–1997), 24–25 okt. 2011. SPb. : Sankt-Peterb. ekon.-matem. in-t RAN, 55–57.
6. Tyshuk, T.A. (2012). Otsinka mizhgaluzevykh efektiv stymuliuvannia popytu na produktsiiu okre-mykh galuzey ekonomiky Ukrainy. Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 3, 23–34.