Articles by : Cherkas Natalia № 2/2013
Forecasting methods and models
CHERKAS Natalia 1
1 Lviv Academy of Commerce
Impact of exchange rate and imports on the export structure dynamics in Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 2:128-139 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article examines the sources of structural changes in the export sector and industrial production in Ukraine. The composition of exports in favor of commodities has been relatively stable over the recent decade serving as a factor facilitating the growth of primary exports at the expense of manufactured exports, as suggested by the income and import elasticity of exports and production sectors. In order to assess robustness of the results, an empirical estimation is conducted with the use of alternative statistical methods, such as the two-stage least-squares (2SLS), vector autoregression (VAR), and the Kalman filter. The main finding is that devaluation of the hryvnia does not contribute to the growth of manufactured exports, which is highly dependent upon the imports of capital goods. The exports of non-traditional commodities with higher value-added have higher import sensitivity but lower real exchange rate elasticity. The author establishes an asymmetrical impact of exchange rate dynamics on the industrial production and exports in the primary and technological branches of industry
Keywords:export structure, industrial production, exchange rate, import elasticity, price elasticity
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 128 - 139) | Download | Downloads :463 |
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№ 3/2015
Forecasting methods and models
CHERKAS Natalia 1, ATAMANCHUK Z. 2
1 Lviv Academy of Commerce
2 Lviv Institute of Economics and Tourism
Assessing macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Ukraine
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper highlights the important problem of the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine and analyzes the global experience of the implementationof monetary policy to achieve stable projections of economic growth. The authors review the basic opinions of researchers studying monetary policy and its impact on the equilibrium between income and balance of payments. A comparative analysis was made for the growth rates of money supply and monetization for industrial countries and transitional economies.
The authors carry out an empirical estimation to assess the dependence of industrial production, total exports and technological exports on monetary factor and exchange rate using two-stage least squares model (2SLS) and vector autoregression with error correction (VECM). The main research findings include: devaluation of the hryvnia does not serve as a factor of exports stimulation, which largely depends on energy imports; currency devaluation restricts the exports of industrial production.
The increase in monetization level of the economy in the short-term period improves the dynamics of industrial output, but, in the long term period, the effect is opposite. Depreciation of national currency negatively impacts the technological exports. On the whole, the authors identify a restrictive impact of the expansion of monetary policy on industrial output, primary exports and technological exports.
Keywords: monetary policy, monetization of GDP, macroeconomic effects, industrial production, exchange rate
JEL: С2,Е4, F43
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 123 - 134) | Download | Downloads :668 |
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