Articles by : Petryk O. № 1/2003
Economic mathematical methods and forecasting models
PETRYK O. 1, POLOVNIOV Y.
1Dutch-Belgian IMF Group
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2003; 1:86-103 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
Analysis of inflation factors and inflation forecasting in Ukraine
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 86 - 103) | Download | Downloads :616 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Petryk O.I, Patterson P. Statystychna otsinka infliatsii v Ukraini u 1992–1995 rokakh Visnyk NBU, 1995, № 3, S. 31–35.
2. Bolgarin I.V, Makhadeva L, Shtern G. Deiaki metodologichni aspekty pobudovy ta vykorystannia modeli mekhanizmu monetarnoi transmisii v Ukraini Visnyk NBU, 2000, №11, S. 4–7.
3. Banaian K, Bolgarin I.V, de Menil, G. Inflation and Money in Ukraine, 1998
4. Miller M, and Havrylyshyn, O. Inflation and Stabilization in the Ukraine, A Monetary Analysis , Economic Policy, October, 1994, № 19, R. 353–401.
5. Butenko O. Money-Credit Policy Impact on Inflation and Output, The Ukrainian Case. 1996
6. de Minil G, Najman B, Jirny A, Rogozinsky, A . A Model of Inflation, GDP, and Budgetary Revenues for Ukraine CASE working paper, 1998, № 126.
7. Sektoralni modeli prognozuvannia ekonomiky Ukrainy , Za red. akademika NAN Ukrainy V.M.Geytsia, K., Feniks, 1999, 304 s.
8. Petryk O.I, Polovnov Yu.O. Prognozuvannia infliatsii , Visnyk NBU, 2000, № 12, S. 7–10.
9. Petryk O.I, Polovnov Yu.O. Prognozuvannia infliatsii spozhyvchykh tsin v Ukraini , Bankivska sprava, 2001, № 3.
№ 2/2017
Forecasting methods and models
PETRYK O. 1, DEYSAN Igor 2
1Dutch-Belgian IMF Group
2Banking University
The heterogeneous impact of monetary levers on the indicators of lending and economic activity
ABSTRACT ▼
This paper examines the effect of the monetary transmission mechanism in the cross-sectoral context. The transmission mechanism from refinancing rate, liquidity and hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to sectoral lending and economic activity was studied using a structural VAR-model. A significant heterogeneity in the response of sectoral indicators was found, which should be taken into account by the National Bank of Ukraine when setting up monetary policy. In particular, the transmission to consumer lending rates differs from the transmission to corporate and interbank lending rates, as well as government lending rates. Consumer credit rates are reduced due to rising liquidity and do not react to refinancing rates. An unexpected decrease in such rates after the devaluation was evidently due to partial realization of the currency risk. The volumes of lending to the population depend only on the hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate. That is, the National Bank has virtually no direct influence on consumer lending.
In addition, the change in interest rate channel from the beginning of 2015 was studied using a panel VAR-model. A positive change in monetary transmission during this period was the emergence of an effective interest rate channel, and hence effective transmission of the NBU refinancing rate to the short-term rates on loans in national currency. The pass-through of the weighted average rate on the NBU refinancing operations to short-term bank lending rates is about 30-40% (that is, such rates increase by 0.3-0.4 percentage points in response to 1 percentage point increase in the refinancing rate).
Keywords: transmission mechanism of monetary policy, sectors of economy, lending indicators, demand, gross value added
JEL: E 43, E 47, E 52
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 129 - 152) | Download | Downloads :642 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Pellényi, Gábo. (2011). The Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy in Hungary: A Struc-tural Factor Analysis. Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
2. Bernanke, B.S. & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48. doi:
doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.27
3. Ganley, J. & Salmon, C. (1997). The industrial impact of monetary policy shocks: Some stylized facts. Bank of England Working Paper, 68.
4. Hayo, Bernd & Uhlenbrock, Birgit. (1999). Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in Germany. Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI). doi:
doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.168470
5. Ifeakachukwu, P., & Saibu, M.O. (2012). The monetary transmission mechanism in Nigeria: A sectoral output analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(1), 204-212.
6. Dedola, L. & Lippi, F. (2005). The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries. European Economic Review, 49(6), 1543-1569. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2003.11.006
7. Mishchenko, V., Petryk, O., Somyk, A., Lysenko, R. and others. (2008). Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine. Natsional'nyj bank Ukrainy, Tsentr naukovykh doslidzhen', naukovo-analitychni materialy – National Bank of Ukraine. Center for Scien-tific Research Scientific and Analytical Materials, 9 [in Ukrainian].
8. Mishchenko, V., Mishchenko, S. (2015). Improvement of monetary transmission chan-nels in Ukraine in the context of the transition to inflation targeting. Aktual'ni problemy ekonomiky – Current problems of the economy, 1, 421-428. Retrieved from
nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/ape_2015_1_52 [in Ukrainian].
9. Beechey, M., Hjalmarsson, E., Österholm, P. (2008). Testing the expectations hypothe-sis when interest rates are near integrated. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys-tem. International Finance Discussion Papers, 953. doi:
doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1301531
10. Sholomitsky, Y. (2014). Estimation of the inflation component in the structure of interest rates on the example of interest rates of commercial banks. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrainy – Bulletin of the National Bank of Ukraine, 1, 55-62. Retrieved from
nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Vnbu_2014_1_5
11. Bernanke, B. & Blinder, A. (1988). Is It Money or Credit, or Both, or Neither?: Cred-it, Money and Aggregate Demand. American Economic Review, 78:2, 435-439 [in English].
12. Lepushinsky, V. (2015). Strategic document on monetary policy in the context of introducing inflation targeting in Ukraine. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrainy – Bulletin of the National Bank of Ukraine, 233, 25-39. Retrieved from
nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Vnbu_2015_233_4 [in Ukrainian].
13. Press Release of the National Bank of Ukraine dated April 21, 2016 "The National Bank of Ukraine lowered the discount rate and improved the operational design of mone-tary policy." [in Ukrainian]. URL:
bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=30186321
English
Русский 
Ukrainian 
