Articles by : Kuznetsova Lidiіa Illivna№ 1/2004
Economy and the formation of the new system of economic management
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1, SHYNKORENKO T. 2, KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna3, BOHDAN I. 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2004; 1:39-70 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article provides analysis of macro-economic situation in Ukraine as of January 2004 with brief summary and conclusions as regards the peculiarities of the basic factors and trends in this country’s economic development in 2003. Special attention is given to structural processes demand, supply, foreign trade, as well as dynamics of Ukraine’s price competitiveness and pricing processes
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 39 - 70) | Download | Downloads :720 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy za 2003 rik, St. zb, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003.
2. Statystychnyi biuleten za 2003 rik, Stat. zb. (shomisiachnyy), K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003.
3. Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy za sichen 2004 rik, Stat. zb, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
4. Statystychnyi biuleten za sichen 2004 rik № 1-2, Stat. zb. (shomisiachnyy), K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
5. Vypusk tovariv ta poslug i valovyi vnutrishniy produkt Ukrainy za 2003 rik (poperedni dani) Ekspres-informatsiia vid 1 bereznia 2004 r.
6. Vypusk tovariv ta poslug i valovyi vnutrishniy produkt Ukrainy za sichen 2004 riku Ekspres-informatsiia № 45 vid 13 liutogo 2004 r.
7. Biuleten Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy, 2003, № 12.
8. Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy tovaramy za 2003 rik, Ekspres-dopovid № 40 vid 13 liutogo 2004 r.
9. Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy poslugamy za 2003 rik , Ekspres-dopovid № 39 vid 13 liutogo 2004 r.
10. Dokhody ta vytraty naselennia Ukrainy za sichen-gruden 2003 roku, Ekspres-dopovid № 29 vid 6 liutogo 2004 r.
11. Finansovi rezultaty pidpryiemstv ta organizatsiy Ukrainy za 2003 rik , Ekspres-informatsiia № 50 vid 16 liutogo 2004 r.
12. Investytsii zovnishnoekonomichnoi diialnosti u 2003 rotsi, Ekspres-dopovid № 48 vid 16 liutogo 2004 r.
13. Zarobitna plata ta stan yii vyplaty u sichni 2004 roku , Ekspres-biuleten № 63 vid 26 liutogo 2004 r.
№ 3/2004
Economy and the formation of the new system of economic management
KRIUCHKOVA Iryna Volodymyrivna1, SHYNKORENKO T. 2, KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna3, BEVZ V.
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Structural Indicators of Ukraine's Economy (January-July 2004)
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2004; 3:92-114 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors analyze the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine for seven months of 2004 and provide a brief summary and conclusions on the peculiarities of the structural processes, their principal factors and trends, as well as social indicators. Special attention is given to structural processes in domestic demand and supply.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 92 - 114) | Download | Downloads :708 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy za 2003 rik, Stat. zb, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003.
2. Statystychnyi biuleten za 2003 rik Statystychnyi zbirnyk (shomisiachnyy), K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003.
3. Pro sotsialno-ekonomichne stanovyshe Ukrainy za sichen–lypen 2004 roku, Stat. zb, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
4. Statystychnyi biuleten za sichen–lypen 2004 roku, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004.
5. Biuleten Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy, 2004, № 6.
6. Ekspres-dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy tovaramy za 2003 rik", 2004, № 40, 13 liutogo.
7. Ekspres-dopovid Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Zovnishnia torgivlia Ukrainy poslugamy za 2003 rik", 2004, № 39, 13 liutogo.
8. Ekspres-biuleten Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Zarobitna plata ta stan yii vyplaty u lypni 2004 roku", 2004, 27 lypnia.
9. Ekspres-informatsiia Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy "Rozpodil kilkosti pratsivnykiv za rozmiramy zarobitnoi platy, narakhovanoi za cherven 2004 roku", 2004, № 230, 9 serpnia.
№ 3/2008
Economy and the formation of the new system of economic management
SHYNKORENKO T. 1, KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The trends of change in wages’ share in Ukraine’s GDP and gross output: a comparative analysis
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2008; 3:20-44 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors analyze the peculiarities in the change of the wages share in Ukraine’s GDP and gross output as compared to the trends of similar macroeconomic proportions in the EU countries. They make a conclusion on the reasons of the considerable mismatch between the wages share in the output of various economic activities in Ukraine and the developed countries. The article justifies the necessity to conduct a better weighted economic policy as regards further expansion of the wages with due regard to observing optimal proportions in the GDP structure by the categories of income and cost structure of the total output
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 20 - 44) | Download | Downloads :659 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Libanova E.M. Komu vygidna desheva robocha syla , Dzerkalo tyzhnia, 2007, 28 kvitnia.
2. Kolot A, Grygorovych S. Teoretychni ta prykladni aspekty pidvyshennia dokhodiv ta yakosti zhyttia naselennia, Ukraina: aspekty pratsi, 2005, № 8, S. 18–24.
3. Revenko A., Produktyvnist pratsi v suchasnykh umovakh, Ukraina: aspekty pratsi, 2008, № 2, S. 32–37.
4. Poplavska O., Bidnist naselennia: shliakhy zapobigannia ta podolannia naslidkiv , Ukraina: aspekty pratsi, 2007, № 2, S. 40–45.
5. Sokolyk M, Piven M., Stsenarii ta naslidky pidvyshennia minimalnykh sotsialnykh standartiv u 2007–2009 pp. v Ukraini , Ukraina: aspekty pratsi, 2008, № 1, S. 21–28.
6. Kryshenko K., Udoskonalennia organizatsiyno-ekonomichnogo mekhanizmu upravlinnia oplatoiu pratsi, Ukraina: aspekty pratsi, 2007, № 6, S. 9–16.
№ 1/2014
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna1, BILOTSERKIVETSʹ Oleksandr Hennadijovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Inflationary processes in Ukraine: main tendencies and impact factors in 2014
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 1:25-36 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The low volatility of pricing in Ukraine, in 2013, on the whole, corresponded to general tendencies shaped by the crisis phenomena of the world economy. The very small increase in consumer prices was supported by low rates of the increase in the prices of the producers of consumption items.However, analysis shows that the dynamics of producers' prices does not compensate for the increase in the costs of the production of coke and products of oil processing chemicals, and, in the rest of activities, production profitability decreased as compared to 2012. Renewal of production productivity will require increased rates of producers' prices. Be-sides, the development of inflation processes in 2014 will be affected by the floating exchange rate of the US dollar (introduced by the NBU).Devaluation of the hryvnia affects the inflation rates both directly, through the direct appreciation of imported consumer goods, whose share of Ukraine's domestic market, in some segments, is extremely high, and indirectly, i.e. through the increase in producers' prices due to the appreciation of the imported goods of intermediate consumption.Increased exchange rate of the dollar will have the strongest effect as speeding up the rise of prices for non-food items, in most of which the imported component exceeds 80%. Among them are, first of all, clothes, shoes, home appliances, medical items. The dynamics of prices for food items will be less affected by a moderate growth of the dollar exchange rate; however, in case of a considerable devaluation of the hryvnia, the prices for food items will considerably increase too, even despite the objective preconditions.The prices for services will grow depending on how much the devaluation of the hryvnia will make it possible to retain the reduced value of the imported energy materials.
Keywords: inflation, deflation, consumer prices, food items, non-food items, services, producers' prices, economic activities, industrial activities, price growth rates, volatility, production profitability, forecast of price dynamics
JEL: E31
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 25 - 36) | Download | Downloads :686 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 4/2019
Forecasting methods and models
KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Structural indicators to monitor macroeconomic misbalances in the investment sphere of Ukraine
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents the results of the author's researches on the development of forecasting and analytical tools to detect and prevent for an exposure and warning of potential macroeconomic misbalances in Ukraine taking into account the experience of European Union in the use of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP).
Attention is focused on the construction and monitoring of structural indicators for the investment sphere, which determine the potential for economic development; substantiated the necessity to adapt the current EU MIP component to assess the investment sphere in Ukrainian realities. The author shows that, taking into account the transitive character of Ukraine's economy, the instrumental assessment of the development trends in its investment sphere trends requires analysis of the structural changes with the use of relevant indicators.
Presented the main results of the analytical assessment of the corresponding changes in the structure of gross accumulation of fixed capital, investments in fixed capital, changes in the structure of foreign direct investments and the volumes of their inflow that have been observed in recent years, and shown that Ukraine in this sense is moving opposite to progressive global trends. Despite the adoption of a number of laws on the strategy of Ukraine's economic development of Ukraine, priorities for the development of this country's productive potential, transition to an innovative path of development, etc., there are still no real progress in the investment sphere.
Emphasized the need to create and implement a national policy aimed at encouraging the expansion of domestic investment opportunities, and reorientation of the interests of foreign investment capital to technological renewal of Ukrainian economy.
Keywords:macroeconomic imbalances, investment sphere, investment potential, structural changes, forecasting and analytical indicators
JEL: E22
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 56 - 69) | Download | Downloads :549 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. European Commission (2012). Scoreboard for the Surveillance of Macroeconomic Imbalances. Occasional Papers, 92. Retrieved from
ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications
2. MIP Scoreboard. Retrieved from
ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/macroeconomic_imbalance_procedure/mip_scoreboard/index_en.htm
3. Kuznietsova, L.I. (2019). Imbalances in the investment sphere and the development of human capital in Ukraine. In Social-class transformations and formation of a new quality of education as components of the reconstructive development of the Ukrainian economy (p. 249-266). Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv. Retrieved from
ief.org.ua/docs/scc/11.pdf [in Ukrainian].
4. Anton, Philip S., Silberglitt, Richard, Schneider, James (2005). The global technology revolution: bio/nano/materials trends and their synergies with information technology by 2015. New York.
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6. Silberglitt, Richard et al. (2006). The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications. Technical Report. RAND. National Security Research Division. Santa Monica, CA.
doi.org/10.7249/TR303
7. Availability and condition of fixed assets by types of economic activity (KVED-2010) for 2016. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from
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8. Skrypnychenko, M.I. (Ed.). (2015). Models for identification of macroeconomic imbalances in Ukraine. Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
9. Korablin, S.O. (2017). Macroeconomic dynamics of Ukraine: the trap of commodity markets. Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
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dspace.oneu.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/8911 [in Russian].
№ 1/2021
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna1, BILOTSERKIVETSʹ Oleksandr Hennadijovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
FORSIGHT IN UKRAINE: PROBLEMS OF ORGANIZATION IN THE CONTEXT OF WORLD PRACTICE
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents the results of a research on world and European experience of foresight research. Attention is focused on the organization of foresight research and institutional support of foresight in EU countries. The authors substantiate the necessity of expanding the practice of foresight research in Ukraine in the conditions of those changes in the nature of the world economy that occur under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and on the verge of upcoming change in the Kondratiev long cycles.
Current trends in the world economy facilitate access to foreign markets, but at the same time create certain risks for national economies.
Increasing competition between domestic and foreign producers for many countries means the bankruptcy of domestic enterprises, especially medium- and high-tech ones, which are unable to compete with corporations that are more powerful. Domestic prices for almost all goods increasingly depend on prices in other markets, which can form imbalance between the cost and price of labor and destroy the labor market, increasing migration of the working population, especially those with high levels of human capital, which reduces the country's opportunities in education, science and production and even multiplicatively affects economic growth.
In these conditions, it becomes extremely important to determine the guidelines for future economic development and society, which actualizes the whole range of foresight research. For Ukraine, where foresight research is limited, the experience of those countries where foresight has become an integral part of strategic planning is vital. The article is devoted to the study of this experience, which identifies the basic organizational measures of foresight research, the main aspects of foresight institutionalization and the problems that hinder the development of foresight in Ukraine.
The publication was prepared within the research project on "Institutional and organizational basis for the foresight research "Economy of Ukraine – 2050” « (state registration No 0121U108846).
Keywords:foresight technology, foresight research, development policy, scientific and technical guidelines, institutionalization of foresight research
JEL: E61
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 127 - 144) | Download | Downloads :417 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. А Practical Guide to Regional Foresight European Communities (2001). Ret-rieved from
www.academia.edu/4126002/Practical_Guide_to_Regional_Foresight
2. Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis. PREST, University of Manchester.
3. Kvitka S.A. (2016, August). Foresight as a technology for the design of the future: the latest mechanisms of interaction between government bodies, business and civil companies. Aspects of public administration, 8 (34), 5-15.
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8. European Commission (2009, November). European Foresight Monitoring Network - Mapping Foresight - Revealing how Europe and other words regions navigate into the future.
9. European Foresight Platform (EFP). Retrieved from
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10. At the Heart of EU Research Policy. Retrieved from
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11. Ukrainian STI 2025 Retrieved from
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18. Regarding the implementation of the "State Program of Scientific and Technical Development for 2008-2012". Retrieved from
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19. Zgurovsky, M.Z., Matorina, T.A., Prylutsky, D.O., Abroskin, D.A. (2008). Global modeling of sustainable development processes in the context of quality and safety of human life. Systemni doslidzhennia ta informatsijni tekhnolohii – Systemic research and information technologies, 4, 7-33. Retrieved from
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№ 3/2022
War economySKRYPNYCHENKO Mariya Illivna1, KUZNETSOVA Lidiіa Illivna2, BILOTSERKIVETSʹ Oleksandr Hennadijovych3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
SCENARIO BASED MACRO ASSESSMENTS OF THE POST-WAR RECOVERY OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY
ABSTRACT ▼
The article outlines the long-term trends in the development of the world economy against the background of the sharp deterioration in the conditions of global growth, primarily due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, persisting inflation and tightening financial conditions.
A special place is given to the main task of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy, which is the transition from the pre-war commodity-agrarian, and import-dependent economy and ensuring economic recovery based on modern achievements in science, technology and the new technological order. Completing the task includes the restoration of infrastructure, restructuring the economic sectors and activities that should become drivers for the recovery of Ukraine's economy in the near future (defense-industrial complex, agricultural sector, construction, ICT sector, and mechanical engineering), preservation of human capital, etc.
The authors note that in 2022, a significant drop in output in all economic activities is expected, which will persist until the end of hostilities. Construction, whose activities will be limited to the restoration of destroyed critical infrastructure, and industry, which accounted for the lion's share of Ukraine's pre-war industrial production (mining, metallurgy, energy), will experience the biggest decline.
The starting conditions of the forecast estimates of Ukraine's post-war recovery are identified, such as investment attraction, a high rate of accumulation of fixed capital to provide a shorter period of economic recovery, and achieving a moderate inflation. Calculations show that attaining the rate of gross accumulation of fixed capital up to 30-35% of GDP would contribute to a rapid recovery of Ukraine's economy after the war.
It is shown that the main factors of the decrease in merchandise exports during the war are the drop in output and the erosion of this country’s transport and logistics potential. An assessment is made of the value and physical volumes, as well as the commodity and geographical structure of merchandise exports from Ukraine in 2022. The authors also provide an assessment of the impact of the reduced physical volume of merchandise exports on output, value added and labor wages in Ukraine.
The risks of ensuring the post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy are identified, the main of which are the continuation of the military aggression by the Russian Federation after 2023 and the escalation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine with a strengthening impact of destructive shocks from the global recession on this country’s domestic economic processes.
Keywords:post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy, destruction, infrastructure, restructuring, human capital, drivers of development, investments, rate of gross fixed capital formation, GDP, economic activities, inflation, merchandise export, scenario based mac
JEL: E 00, E 17, E 69
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 48 - 74) | Download | Downloads :188 |
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1. Global Economic Outlook (2022, July). Retrieved from
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