The authors provide a summary of report on the execution of the research project on «Medium-term strategy of Ukraine’s economic development» within which the scientists investigated important theoretical issues and estimated practical results of Ukraine’s and other countries’ economic policies in 1990-2002 in terms of realization of strategies of sustainable economic development and their consequences. The analysis takes into account external and internal factors conditioning government regulation, and state and development prospects of Ukraine’s economy. Among the project’s results are proposals on substantiation of the strategy for transition from the current exogenously dependent pattern of economic transformation to a predominantly endogenously oriented one, which would be oriented to innovation-based strategy of economic growth. Such transition could allow improving internal inter-sectoral and inter-branch equilibrium, expanding the social base for further reforms, decreasing the dependence on the negative impact of external shocks and stabilizing economic growth in the long perspective

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The author considers methodological approaches and peculiarities of the construction of inter-country models, and presents variants of integrated inter-country models of economic development: used by the international LINK Project. She provides a general characteristic of the system of integrated national models of the developed transition economies

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Long standing economic interests unite the Institute of economics and fore-casting, Ukrainian NAS, with the International UN LINK Project| International Insti-tute for Applied System Analysis (Austria)| Institute of Economics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences| Independent Expert Group Consensus Economics Inc. (London, Great Britain)| Berlin Institute of Economic research| Lodz University (Poland)| Institute of economic forecasting (Russian federation)| Institute for World Economy, Hungarian academy of sciences| Ministry of economy, industry and finances and University Paris-Nanter (France).
In October-November 2006, a regular Meeting of Project LINK Expert Group took place. In this issue, we are publishing (by the authors’ consent) some of the presentations of the above mentioned Meeting (the originals provided by the au-thors and their Russian translations). We do hope for research interests in getting acquainted with the opinions of the representatives of various transition economies as to the assessments of the prospects of economic development

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The authors consider the modern tendencies of innovational development in the context of specific features of the macro-environment of Ukraine’s economy. They provide forecast assumptions and estimation of the main macro-indicators of Ukraine;s economy for the period until 2015 and analyze the consequences of the influence of innovational factors on the development of Ukrainian economy. The article also provides the risks and restricting macro-economic conditions of the forecast period, which were shaped during 2005-2006 and remain problematic in 2007-2015

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The authors advance the basic arguments in favor and against the development of a national system of crisis monitoring. They give a detailed presentation of a set of program-and-analytical tools called “The system of monitoring the threats to stable economic development” and define the key problems in selecting the proper indicators to avoid financial instability

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The article considers the problem of formalizing internal and external factors (indicators) of macroeconomic imbalances, and analyzes their influence on the likelihood of crisis in the emerging economies. The main purpose of the article is to monitor the economic condition and identify and choose the potential predictors of dangerous economic imbalances for the group of countries (Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Armenia), that are similar in terms of emergent properties. To identify this group of countries among 57 countries, the authors have used cluster analysis. With the use of the modern mathematical economic methods (panel data model, concept of exchange market pressure, signal approach) the type of binary regression model was chosen (by minimizing noise to signal ratio), and the models where the dependent variable is a binary response, were developed (in particular, probit-model). Those models reflect the dependence of the likelihood of financial crisis on a number of economic indicators.
The authors propose various approaches for detecting the indicators of dangerous economic imbalances. Those approaches provide a modeling tool for the quantitative analysis of macroeconomic policies in terms of the prevention of negative trends in the economic development in Ukraine and other partner countries, which are characterized by similar levels of emerging economies.
The results of the identification and estimation of the levels of economic imbalances in Ukraine (in accordance with the criteria proposed in the article) show the presence of certain imbalances and the economic instability during 2003–2012 (and substantial sectoral imbalances in 2013). The authors have calculated a high (up to the level of 91%) likelihood of a financial crisis in Ukraine for the negative (inertial-risk) scenario.
The results of the investigation may be used by officials, civil servants (those involved in deter-mining this country\'s macroeconomic policies, economic management and forecasting the future economic performance) as a tool for the timely identification of threatening macroeconomic imbalances as a means to detect and prevent a crisis.

Keywords: indicators of dangerous economic imbalances; financial crisis; emerging economies; panel data model; concept of exchange market pressure; signal approach; binary regression model

The paper presents a system of macro-models to forecast the economy of Ukraine as a methodological framework for the analytical software tool to support the budget process named "Macroeconomic forecasts of Ukraine's economy" developed at the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. The system includes integrated forecasting macro-models of Ukraine's economy and a model for sector-by-sector balancing of real and financial flows and is focused on practical implementation in volatile economic conditions.
Integrated forecasting models for Ukraine's economy integrate Sectoral models of economic development in accordance with the methodology of construction of econometric models for medium-term estimates of national economic development and search of possibilities of regulation through mechanisms that are laid in the budget, monetary and exchange rate policies with simulation based calculations of this country's medium term based on the scenarios of macroeconomic situation. The models allow taking into account the most essential factors to assess the interplay of relevant factor variables and increase the system's ability to find and regulate development variants with observing the macroeconomic balance.
The models of real sector cover various types of macroeconomic imbalances in aggregate demand and aggregate supply, which directly affect the budget deficit, excess money supply, which could lead to inflation, excessive use of foreign exchange reserves, which leads to a balance of payments crisis, high level of foreign borrowing, which leads to debt crisis and significant accumulation of domestic debt, which leads to higher real interest rates and squeezing out of private investments.
The model of public sector takes into account the relationship between the indicators of economic dynamics and allows the assessment of the impact, on the one hand, of different variants of fiscal policy on macroeconomic situation in the country as a whole and the state of public finances in particular and, on the other hand, of various options of general economic measures on the public finances. The main components of the model of public sector are total income, total expenses and financing of budget deficit.
The model of monetary sector is developed to assess and forecast the key indicators of monetary macro-balance (monetary review). Forecasting the indicators of monetary review includes the following stages: assessment of demand for money; benchmarking for net foreign assets and net domestic credit; and assessment of the money supply.
The model of foreign economic sector of Ukraine's economy is based on the methodology of the balance of payments and connects, with balance based relationships, the indicators of current account with the ratio of capital account and financial account.
The sector-by-sector model for balancing the real and financial flows is one of the important components of the macroeconomic outlook of Ukraine's economy, as prudence prediction is a fundamental question both in terms of scheduling and elaborating programs of national development.
In the context of the elaboration of the analytical software tool "Macroeconomic forecasts of Ukraine's economy", the researchers justified the use of financial programming as a methodological approach to the determination of macroeconomic relationships and evaluation of measures aimed at sustainable use of tools of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as consistent implementation of economic and political development strategies.
The analytical software tool "Macroeconomic forecasts of Ukraine's economy" can be used for macroeconomic analysis and scenario based forecasting of medium term (three years) development of Ukraine's economy, in accordance with the concept of the adequacy of the estimates of budget indicators, which are recommended to calculate within the forecast period not exceeding three years.
Therefore the appropriate projections for the last year of the forecast period can be done after receiving and processing statistics involved in modeling tool for the last year of the reporting period, and quantitative analysis of forecasting situations for alternative policy scenarios, in accordance with the assumptions of the unit of exogenous regulatory variables, allows developing practical recommendations on the mechanisms for identifying crisis situations and ensuring sustainable medium term development.

Keywords: modeling tool "Macroeconomic forecasts of Ukraine's economy" system of macroeconomic models, real sector, public sector, monetary sector, foreign sector, model of sector-by-sector balancing of flows

Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country’s economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic).
It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019–2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc.
On the whole, the reduction of the "recession" GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half.
Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.

Keywords: GDP gap, real and potential GDP, model toolkit, production function with constant elasticity of substitution, Cobb-Douglas production function, extended production function, employment level, use of production capacities

The article outlines the long-term trends in the development of the world economy against the background of the sharp deterioration in the conditions of global growth, primarily due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, persisting inflation and tightening financial conditions.
A special place is given to the main task of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy, which is the transition from the pre-war commodity-agrarian, and import-dependent economy and ensuring economic recovery based on modern achievements in science, technology and the new technological order. Completing the task includes the restoration of infrastructure, restructuring the economic sectors and activities that should become drivers for the recovery of Ukraine's economy in the near future (defense-industrial complex, agricultural sector, construction, ICT sector, and mechanical engineering), preservation of human capital, etc.
The authors note that in 2022, a significant drop in output in all economic activities is expected, which will persist until the end of hostilities. Construction, whose activities will be limited to the restoration of destroyed critical infrastructure, and industry, which accounted for the lion's share of Ukraine's pre-war industrial production (mining, metallurgy, energy), will experience the biggest decline.
The starting conditions of the forecast estimates of Ukraine's post-war recovery are identified, such as investment attraction, a high rate of accumulation of fixed capital to provide a shorter period of economic recovery, and achieving a moderate inflation. Calculations show that attaining the rate of gross accumulation of fixed capital up to 30-35% of GDP would contribute to a rapid recovery of Ukraine's economy after the war.
It is shown that the main factors of the decrease in merchandise exports during the war are the drop in output and the erosion of this country’s transport and logistics potential. An assessment is made of the value and physical volumes, as well as the commodity and geographical structure of merchandise exports from Ukraine in 2022. The authors also provide an assessment of the impact of the reduced physical volume of merchandise exports on output, value added and labor wages in Ukraine.
The risks of ensuring the post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy are identified, the main of which are the continuation of the military aggression by the Russian Federation after 2023 and the escalation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine with a strengthening impact of destructive shocks from the global recession on this country’s domestic economic processes.

Keywords:post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy, destruction, infrastructure, restructuring, human capital, drivers of development, investments, rate of gross fixed capital formation, GDP, economic activities, inflation, merchandise export, scenario based mac