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№ 3/2001
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Reflection of Agriculture into Macroeconomic Indexes
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2001; 3:123-139 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper highlights the place of agriculture in a national economy and macroeconomics indices based on National System of Accounts. Transition to this international system leads to significant changes in the interpretation of most indices of national economy including agriculture as one of its components. It concerns most economic categories, classifications, and proportions and requires appropriate explanations and analysis
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 123 - 139) | Download | Downloads :642 |
REFERENCES ▼
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№ 2/2011
SHUBRAVSKA Olena 1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Development of the agrifood market of Ukraine under the influence of innovation factors
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2011; 2:118-129 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Position of Ukraine in the global agrifood production and export is determined and competitive advantages of this country are shown. Main trends and problems of development of the global cereals market, as well as the effect of the global changes in supply and demand of grain on the food security are revealed. The venues for the use of the achievements of science and technology progress in the agrarian sector of Ukraine are demonstrated, taking as an example the innovative transformations of the corn market. The analytic forecasting model of the corn market development is designed and possible economic outcomes for the local agrarian sector and market are assessed, starting with the corn growth and processing. Innovative technologies and various scenarios of the agrarian market development are examined
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian | Download | Downloads :589 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Food Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, . <www.fao.org/worldfoodsituarion/wfshome/scdb/en>.
3. USDA Feed Grain Baseline, 201019, <www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Corn/2010baseline.htm>.
4. Shubravska O.V. Innovatsiyni transformatsii agroprodovolchogo sektora ekonomiky: svitovi tendentsii ta vitchyzniani realii, Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 2010, №3, S. 90–102.
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№ 3/2014
UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna2, DIDKOVSKA Lyudmila 3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The impact of climate change on the development of agricultural production
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 3:107-120 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article outlines some special features of climate change manifested in the growth of average temperature, increased level of the oceans and a growing number of natural disasters (droughts, desertification, etc.) The authors characterize a series of sources increasing the volume of the emission of greenhouse gases, which is the main cause of global warming. It is argues that agriculture is both a powerful source and a biological trap of greenhouse gases.
The authors reveal some changes in the territorial distribution of individual key crops (sunflower, corn and sugar beet) in four climatic zones, as well as a gradual replacement of sown areas under those crops to the North and West zones. The tendency will probably hold as the yields in this area appear to be much higher due to more favorable cultivation conditions, which is in turn caused by climate change.
Keywords: climate change, greenhouse gases, precipitation, temperature, agri-food production, dynamics of sown area, the rate of change in acreage, climate zones
JEL: Q18; Q21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 107 - 120) | Download | Downloads :626 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook – Module 1: Why Climate-Smart Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2013). Prodovolcha sіlskohospodarska orhanіzatsіia OON (FАО), www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3325e/i3325e.pdf
3. «Soniachnyi udar» po ekonomitsi: vyzhyvut ne vsi. Informatsiine ahentstvo UNIAN, economics.unian.ua/other/682965-sonyachniy-udar-po-ekonomitsi-vijivut-ne-vsi.html
4. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mіzhuriadova hrupa ekspertіv zі zmіny klіmatu, www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data /ar4/syr/ru/contents.html.
5. Prezentatsiia Adamenko T.I. na kruhlomu stoli «Rozvytok ahrarnoho vyrobnytstva v umovakh pryrodno-klimatychnykh zmin» na temu: Zmina klimatu ta yii vplyv na ahroklimatychni resursy Ukrainy (November 22, 2013). Kiev, IAE NAANU.
6. Prezentatsiia Didukha Ya.P. na kruhlomu stoli «Ekolohichna bezpeka, ekonomichna efektyvnist, sotsialna stabilnist v umovakh hlobalnykh klimatychnykh zmin» na temu: Tendentsii rozvytku roslynnoho pokryvu pid vplyvom klimatychnykh zmin ta yikh eksperymentalni doslidzhennia v Ukraini (December 10, 2013). – Kiev, NISD.
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14. Hodkinson, I. (2003). Herbivory in global climate change: Direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change, 8, 1–9.
15. Shubravska, O.V., Prokopenko, K.O. (2011). Rozvytok silskoho hospodarstva Ukraini v umovakh dii innovatsiinykh chynnykiv. Economy and Forecasting, 2, 118–129.
16. Vchenі: hlobalne poteplіnnia znyshchyt pshenytsiu, yachmіn ta kukurudzu. Ahrarnyi tyzhden. Ukraina, a7d.com.ua/novini/17175-vchen-globalne-poteplnnya-znischit-pshenicyu-yachmn-ta-kukurudzu.html
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19. Myasnikovich, M.V., Gusakov, V.G., Lishtvan, I.I., Likhatsevich, A.P. (2002). Strategiya ekologobezopasnoiy rekonstruktsii meliorativnykh sistem i povysheniya produktivnosti meliorirovannykh zemel' Poles'ya: Gosudarstvennaya programma i predlozheniya po ee resheniyu. Vestsi Natsyyanal'naiy akademii navuk Belarusi. Ser. agrarnykh navuk, 4, 3–9.
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№ 1/2017
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1, UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukrainian agriculture: challenges and ways of development under the climate change
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 1:92-107 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.092 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article identifies and substantiates the challenges and prospects of agriculture under the climate change. Ukrainian agriculture serves as an important component of global food security, whose further development is dependent on natural resources, the environment and climate change. Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, however, at the same time, it is suffering from the climate change itself.
Although Ukraine is not included in the list of the most vulnerable to global warming regions on our planet, if no appropriate urgent action is taken, the climate change will continue to pressure on the agricultural ecosystems.
The authors highlight positive (changed terms and conditions of harvesting, increased efficiency of fertilizers, etc.) and negative (deterioration of grain quality, increased frequency of droughts, etc.) effects of the climate change on agriculture; they identify and summarize the main measures to reduce the negative impact of agriculture on climate change and propose various basic adaptation measures that would mitigate the negative impact of the climate change on agriculture.
Under the conditions of climate change, an important factor in improving the efficiency of agriculture is a rigorous distribution of arable lands between separate crops with regard to climate change. One of the important measures to improve the crop rotation pattern is including so called "niche" crops that have a significant potential for the diversification of the oilseed-and-grain pattern, which dominates in the crop rotations in southern Ukraine.
Keywords: climate change, greenhouse gases, precipitation, temperature, the agricultural sector, low-carbon agriculture, niche culture
JEL: Q18; Q21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 92 - 107) | Download | Downloads :811 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Panasyuk, B.Ya. (2015). Global climate change and the economy. Ekonomika APK – Ekonomika APK, 11, 14-22 [in Ukrainian].
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8. Müller, D., Jungandreas, A., Koch, F., Schierhorn, F. (2016). Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Ukraine. Kyiv: Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
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14. Global warming will make unsuitable 2 million hectares of Ukrainian lands in 10 years – meteorologist. (2015). Retrieved from ru.golos.ua/ekonomika/globalnoe_poteplenie_sdelaet_neprigodnyim_2_mln_gektarov_ukrainskoy_zemli_uje_cherez [in Russian].
15. Adamenko, T.I. (2016). Do not panic: climate change may prove useful for agriculture. Retrieved from http:// tyzhden.ua/Society/55863 [in Ukrainian].
16. Chief agro-meteorologist Ukraine: After 20 years, the south of the country could become a desert). (2016). Retrieved from www.economics.unian.net/agro/1165246-glavnyiy-agrometeorolog-ukrainyi-cherez-20-let-yug-stranyi-mojet-prevratitsya-v-pustyinyu.html [in Russian].
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21. Haidutskyi, I.P. (2016). Priorities for sustainable low-carbon development in Ukraine. Ekonomika ta derzhava – The economy and the state, 9, 23-28 [in Ukrainian].
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25. Saiko, V.F. (2008). Agriculture in the context of climate change. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Natsionalnoho naukovoho tsentru "Instytut zemlerobstva UAAN" – Proceedings of the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agriculture UAAS". Kyiv: VD "EKMO" [in Ukrainian].
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№ 3/2018
UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The niche crops as a new prospective guideline for small farms
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 3:102-117 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.03.102 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the importance and economic potential of the niche crops, which are able to significantly diversify the existing grain-oil specialization of Ukrainian agriculture, reduce the domination of sunflower and rape in the crop rotation, whose excessive cultivation greatly depletes the upper layers of soil. The authors reveal various aspects of growing the niche crops including the advantages (high profitability, diversification of crop rotation, and production diversification) and disadvantages (high costs of sowing material and growing technologies, instability of demand for most niche crops, difficulty in finding the inlets for the niche produce, and uncertain profit expectations), and propose measures for their balancing.
An important feature of the niche crops is the complexity of scaling their production and high resource consumption of their cultivation. The production of niche products can not become a prerogative of large business entities, since they use large areas of land under limited conditions, which is determined by natural and weather conditions, wide gauge machinery, automated control systems and logistics control. In contrast, small business entities can apply the agronomic measures that are necessary to grow niche crops, and therefore the production of the latter serves for them an important alternative in their operation.
The high economic potential of niche crops is due to their high prices implementation and a significant, though unstable, demand on the agro-food market. Growing niche legumes is one of the most promising areas for the development of small agri-business. By observing their production technologies, you can get increased profits from 1 hectare of harvested area, even compared to some very liquid cereals and oil seeds. It has been established that small farms do not have the opportunity to enter foreign markets with traditional crops, but they can improve their profitability due to high quality and niche orientation of their manufactured produce, since such produce enjoys a constantly growing demand on the global market.
Keywords: agrarian sector, small business entities, niche crops, profitability of niche crops, export of niche crops
JEL: Q 12, Q 19
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 102 - 117) | Download | Downloads :2274 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Kernasiuk, Yu. (2015). The export trend – niche cultures. Retrieved from www.agro-business.com.ua [in Ukrainian].
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5. Volodin, S. (2017). Methodical bases of fastplant-technologies for the fast production of niche cultures. Agricultural and Resource Economics, 3, 4, 43-56. Retrieved from www.are-journal.com [in Ukrainian].
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№ 1/2020
SHUBRAVSKA Olena 1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE INFLUENCE OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL CORPORATIONS ON THE NATIONAL TRADE BALANCE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 1:111-127 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.111 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Determined the role of the agricultural corporate sector in the formation of export flows, identified the fundamental trends of agro-food foreign trade, assessed the competitiveness of main agro-food commodity groups and defined, on this basis, the promising guidelines for its expansion via increased share of exports of the most competitive products. The methodological basis of the research is the system of general and special scientific methods. Empirical results, concerning the role of the agrarian corporate sector, have been obtained through retrospective analysis, grouping, benchmarking and generalization. The research of commodity structure and foreign trade flows of agrarian sector was based on economic and statistical methods, in particular the balance method, the determination of the geometrical mean of annual growth rate and so on. The method of assessing the competitiveness of each product group through the Lafay Index, which shows the difference between the normalized trade balance for individual goods and for all goods traded by the country, was used for identifying the comparative advantages of Ukraine in international agro-food trade. The calculations were carried out using world and national statistics. Time series cover the period 2004-2018 and are analyzed from the standpoint of commodity structure. It is determined that that the corporate sector in Ukrainian agriculture is the main producer of export flows of agro-food products. The commodity structure research showed negative changes in value added. The share of unprocessed goods in trade increases due to a decrease in the share of processed products, which allows us to state the raw material orientation of Ukrainian agro-food exports. It was noted that attention should be focused on increasing the share of products with higher value added in agro-food exports. The prospects for increasing exports of organic products were outlined. The comparative advantages of Ukraine in relation to the global economy were analyzed based on the Lafay Index calculation. Received estimates allowed dividing the export commodity structure into competitive and non-competitive products. Products with a high level of competitiveness were identified based on the Lafay Index analysis as well as based on the corresponding balance sheets. The mono-specialization of agro-food exports, which makes itself felt in the predominance of raw materials, has become even stronger due to the orientation of the corporate sector solely to the global food demand and the weakness of the influence of state management structures in Ukraine. This causes instable export earnings and poor predictability of the results of Ukrainian farmers' economic activities, as well as increases significantly the environmental risks of agricultural production. The Ukrainian agro-food foreign trade is characterized by positive features, including an increase in value and volume of exports, improved food self-sufficiency, surplus trade accretion and by negative ones, namely: reduction of the share of processed products and semi-finished products in the agrarian trade structure, low activity of small agricultural traders oriented to exportation products from Ukraine, and weak promotion of Ukrainian agro-food exports by public authorities.
Keywords:agro-food foreign trade, corporate agrarian sector, competitiveness, commodity structure, export flows
JEL: Q13, Q17
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 111 - 127) | Download | Downloads :525 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Pugachov, M.I. (2019). Development of foreign trade of agro-food products. Ekonomika APK – Economics of AIC, 3, 6-12. doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.201903006 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 1/2022
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1, UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF ORGANIC PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE: WITH THE THOUGHT OF THE FUTURE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 1:160-176 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.01.160 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article substantiates the importance of the production of organic agricultural products as a component of a healthy lifestyle, as well as ensuring the preservation and restoration of the environment. The authors reveal the ecological, economic and social benefits of organic production, in particular, preservation of the nation’s natural and health; reproduction of soil fertility; increased competitiveness of domestic producers on internal and foreign markets; improving the welfare of the rural population, etc. It is stated that organic production includes the conscious use of soil as an ecosystem; application of production methods and preventive protection of crops. It is established that presently the interest of consumers in the consumption of environmentally friendly foods, whose production has no negative impact on the environment, is currently growing.
The study of the global organic market shows an active growth in both the number of organic producers and the output of organic products. The market of organic products in Ukraine is at an early stage of development, but there is a steady trend towards increased number of organic producers, expanded range of certified products, and increased exports of organic foodstuffs.
The authors analyze a number of factors hindering the development of organic production in Ukraine, in particular, the lack of public awareness of the properties of organic foods and their difference from conventional ones; shortage of qualified specialists in producing organic foods; insufficient solution of logistical problems; low purchasing power of the population, etc. The key changes in EU legislation on organic production are considered, one of the important innovations being the possibility of using "group certification", which allows small farmers to unite, produce and jointly pass the certification of organic products. Emphasis is placed on the prospects of this model for Ukrainian producers. The study shows the possibility of using organic foods in schools based on the example of the positive experience of EU countries – for the growing a healthy, conscious and responsible generation that will take care of the future of the state.
Keywords:agriculture; organic production; group certification model; organic products market; Healthy Eating
JEL: Q13, Q57
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 160 - 176) | Download | Downloads :181 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Dudar, T.H. (2014). Development of organic agricultural production as a basis for ensuring the quality and safety of agricultural products in Ukraine. Naukovyj visnyk Mukachivs'koho derzhavnoho universytetu. Ser. Ekonomika – Scientific herald Mukachevo State University. Series Economics, 1, 11-15 [in Ukrainian].
3. Kudinova, I.P., Kholiavko, D.M. (2017). Consultation on organic production as an important component of food security. Problemy innovatsijno-investytsijnoho pozvytku – Problems of innovation and investment development, 12, 159-165 [in Ukrainian].
4. Chajka, T.O. (2012). Obstacles to the development of organic agricultural production. Vìsn. agrar. nauki Pričornomor'â – Ukrainian Black Sea region agrarian science, 2, 126-131 [in Ukrainian].
5. Shubravs'ka, O.V. (2017). Organic agriculture in Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 116-128. doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.116 [in Ukrainian].
6. Codex Alimentarius (1999). Guidelines for the Produstion, Prosessing, Labelling and Marketing of Organisally Prodused Foods (GL-32). Retrieved from www.fao.org/input/download/standards/360/sxg _032e.pdf
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8. Goewie, E.A. (2003). Organic agriculture in the Netherlands; developments and challenges. NJAS: Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 50:2, 153-169. doi.org/10.1016/S1573-5214(03)80004-0
9. Law of Ukraine "On the basic principles and requirements for organic production, circulation and marking of organic products" from 02.08.2018 No. 2496-VIII. Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2496-19 [in Ukrainian].
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11. Willer, Helga, Travnicek, Jan, Meier, Claudia and Schlatter, Bernhard (Eds.) (2021). The World of Organic Agriculture - Statistics and Emerging Trends 2021. Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL and IFOAM - Organics International, Frick and Bonn., CH-Frick and D-Bonn. Retrieved from www.organic-world.net/yearbook/yearbook-2021.html
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№ 2/2023
PROKOPENKO Kateryna Oleksiivna1, UDOVA Lyudmila Olehivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
(Post)war prospects of growing niche crops in the agricultural sector
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 2:118-133 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.02.118 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The pre-war development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine has taken place according to the model of modernization, based on specialization, intensification and expansion of the scale of production. However, European experience shows that this model is viable only in conditions of stable markets. The economic crisis caused by the hostilities forces agricultural producers to change their specialization in favor of diversified production. One of the ways to raise the economic sustainability of farms is to expand their activities through the production of niche crops.
The article reveals the relevance of the production of niche agricultural crops during the (post)war period. The authors outline the main advantages (higher sales price, better adaptability to weather and climate conditions, the possibility of balancing crop rotation, lower competition on the market, etc.) that shape the economic potential of the above mentioned crops, and highlight the risks (the need for special agricultural technologies, high production cost, high price volatility, etc.), which inhibit their cultivation.
It is noted that the expansion of crop rotation due to the inclusion of leguminous niche crops should become part of a broader (post)war strategy for the sustainable development of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Cultivation of niche vegetables is a component of resource-conserving agriculture, because crop rotation in vegetable production supports soil structure, controls soil erosion, and increases biodiversity. Obstacles to the spread of niche vegetable production are highlighted. The authors consider various new vegetables that are currently becoming part of the culture of consumption and have considerable prospects (sweet potato, Jerusalem artichoke, etc.), and point out the possibility of adapting the European experience of growing various vegetables in combination with the installation of solar panels (agrovoltaics).
Under the conditions of (post)war recovery, the cultivation of niche energy crops would contribute to the diversification of agricultural production, strengthening the economic stability of agricultural producers, increasing the level of environmental friendliness of the energy sector, and shaping the energy independence of rural areas. The article highlights the European experience of mapping agro-ecological technologies, which will make it easier for agricultural producers to introduce new crops, in particular the niche ones, and technologies.
Keywords:agricultural sector, sustainable development, diversification of production, niche crops, leguminous crops, vegetable crops, energy crops
JEL: Q 12, Q 19
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 118 - 133) | Download | Downloads :6 |
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2. Darnhofer, І. (2014) Resilience and why it matters for farm management. European Review of Agricultural Economics.,41 (3), 461-484. doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbu012.
3. Mirzoieva, T., Tomashevskyi, V. (2023). Analysis of the current state of the production of niche cereal crops. Taurida Scientific Herald. Series: Economics, 15, 99-108. doi.org/10.32782/2708-0366/2023.15.12 [in Ukrainian].
4. Kernasiuk, Yu. (2015). Niche cultures in the strategy of innovative diversification of agribusiness. Retrieved from agro-business.com.ua/agro/ekonomichnyi-hektar/item/22969-nishevi-kultury-v-stratehii-innovatsiinoi-dyversyfikatsii-ahrobiznesu.html [in Ukrainian].
5. Vozhegova, R.A., Borovik, V.O., Grabovsky, M.B., Marchenko, T.Yu., Grabovskaya, T.O. (2022). Niche cultures – new opportunities for the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. Agrarian innovations. 13, 181-189. doi.org/10.32848/agrar.innov.2022.13.27 [in Ukrainian].
6. Volodin, S.A. (2021). Stimulating the production of niche crops in Ukraine based on fastplant technologies. Ekonomika APK – Economics of the agro -industrial complex, 2, 82–91. doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202102082 [In Ukrainian].
7. Karasova, N.A. (2017). Export perspective of niche products for small and medium-sized enterprises of the agricultural sector. Ahrosvit. 1-2, 14–18. Retrieved from www.agrosvit.info/pdf/1-2_2017/4.pdf [in Ukrainian].
8. Petrova, O. (2020). Сonditions and prospects of growing beauty cultures in Ukraine. Taurida Scientific Herald. Series: Economics, (1), 148-153. Retrieved from tnv-econom.ksauniv.ks.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/19 [in Ukrainian].
9. Udova, L., Prokopenko, K. (2018).The niche crops as a new prospective guideline for small farms. Ekon. prognozuvannâ, 3, 102-117. doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.03.102 [in Ukrainian].
10. Cherevko, I.V. (2020). Niche energy crops as a factor of energy independence of rural areas. Energy efficiency and energy independence of rural areas: prerequisites for formation and functioning. Poltava: Publishing House "Astraya", 49-58 [in Ukrainian] .
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