Progress and prospects of reforms in agrarian sector are analyzed on the basis of sociological and economic surveys carried out during the four years of implementation of the Land Privatization and Farm Reorganization Project in Ukraine. In accordance with the results of monitoring research a forecast is carried out concerning the consequences of measures provided by the President's Decree "On the urgent measures for the acceleration of reforms in agrarian sector of the economy".

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The scale and structure of income of various social groups of agricultural population were analyzed. It was shown that subsidiary farms had become the most important source of income for rural families. The level of marketability of subsidiary farms was estimated as well as their prospects in the context of agrarian reform.

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The article outlines general regularities of market reforms in agrarian sectors of the transition countries, which are applicants to the EU. The author investigates manifestations of general regularities and peculiarities of market reforms in Ukraine’s agrarian sector. The article also contains substantiation of strategical objectives for this country’s agrarian transformations in the context of eurointegration

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The article considers the following issues: assessment (on the basis of WTO rules and regulations) of the balance between the advantages and drawbacks of WTO accession for Ukraine’s agrarian sector and local agricultural markets; WTO impact on the other transition economies; аnalysis of the negotiation process regarding Ukraine’s accession to the WTO; and the current status of Ukrainian agriculture.

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The author provides an assessment of the efficiency of Ukraine's agrarian market with the use of the methods of industrial market structures theory and institutional economics. Research is focused on the problems of vertical integration on the agrarian market.

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On the basis of objective factors and individual expectations of market agents, the author analyses advantages and risks of trade liberalization for Ukraine’s agro-food market. She justifies various guidelines of the state agrarian policy, which could reduce the risks and speed up the realization of advantages of the WTO membership

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The author explores the social background and eventual social consequences of agricul-tural land market in Ukraine. Agricultural land market start-up situation is estimated includ-ing potential salespeople and buyers categories, market volumes and price levels. Re-gional features of the future land market are analyzed, their impact on the regional agricultural structure is estimated and state regulation measures to prevent negative structure changes are justified

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The author analyses regulative options for grain and products of grain processing market under condi-tion of strong market prices. She proves that direct monetary support for the low income strata is the most efficient option under these conditions because it maintains at the same time the food security and grain producers incomes

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The author considers the impact of basic external forces – financial crisis, WTO regulations and world agricultural markets on the domestic agri- food market of Ukraine. She examines the problems of the most external-sensitive markets in the present context of increased influence of exogenous factors

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The author analyzes the trade regime of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation and its possible changes after the official accession of the Russian Federation to the WTO. The foreign trade, export opportunities and risks in agricultural trade with the SES countries are examined. Also, the author estimates the impact of the introduction of restrictions on imports of cheese and confectionery products from Ukraine and provides recommendations to mitigate negative consequences and reduce risk in trade with the SES countries

Keywords:trade regime, foreign trade, exports, imports, agricultural goods, trade, risk, commodity exports, trade balance, tariff, quotas

The article presents the analysis of agricultural trade regimes under alternative options of economic integration of Ukraine - FTA between the EU and Ukraine and Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The author identifies the advantages for the development of exports and the threat to domestic producers under the conditions of different options for regional integration.
It is shown that the conditions of agricultural trade with the EU are asymmetric because of (1) a significantly lower level of tariff protection of the domestic market of Ukraine, (2) a large number of specific and combined customs duty rates in EU, while in Ukraine the vast majority of import tariff rates are ad valorem; (3) the use of export subsidies by the EU (Ukraine has no right to use export subsidies), (4) the use of special safeguard measures t by the EU, not allowed for Ukraine , (5) the use of input prices in the EU; (4) using tariff quotas for 15% of tariff lines of agricultural products in the EU, while Ukraine has a tariff quota only for sugar cane. The analysis of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine showed that the FTA only partially eliminates asymmetrical trade regimes between the parties through (1) granting the free access to EU market for certain Ukrainian products within the tariff quotas, (2) the refusal of EU to use export subsidies in bilateral trade with Ukraine.
The author formulates disadvantages and risks for Ukrainian agricultural trade under FTA with EU: (1) small values of tariff import quotas granted by EU and limited list of tariff lines, (2) the inability of the majority of domestic producers to meet the technical, sanitary, phytosanitary requirements for export under tariff quotas allocated for Ukraine (3) losses of domestic producers of meat and meat products, fruits and vegetables as a result of increased imports from the EU.
It is shown that trade in agricultural products with Customs Union of Russian Federation, Belarus and Kazakhstan develops slowly and the top export goods are at risk due to: (1) problems of technical regulations, (2) implementing programs to support the production of these goods in CU countries, (3) competition from third countries on CU markets. The author estimates total losses of exporters from the restrictions on agricultural trade on CU market providing that the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine was signed

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The article deals with the important issues of the existing non-tariff barriers in the trade between Ukraine and the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan), and the peculiar features in the formation of a new system of technical regulation in Eurasian Economic Space / Customs Union and Ukraine.
The new legislation of the CU and EES on technical regulation causes a sharp decline in the exports of the Ukrainian goods, which are a subject of the new trade regulations. On the other hand, those Ukrainian goods, which are not covered by the new technical regulations, still keep good prospects at the EES market.
The authors make the conclusions regarding the usefulness of the implementation of the Customs Union's alternative technical regulations in Ukraine. The article evaluates the potential losses in Ukraine's foreign trade due to the application of the Customs Union / EES's technical regulations to analogous industrial and agricultural products; also, it analyzes various cases of bans on the import of goods into the Customs Union.
The losses of Ukraine's export revenues in the trade with the EES due to the existing technical barriers, such as the CU technical regulations, amount to at least US 1 bln annually. Adoption, by Ukraine, of some of the alternative CU technical regulations would help avoid losses in the exports to the Eurasian Economic Space.

Keywords: trade policy, trade agreements, non-tariff barriers, technical regulations

The article discusses the issue of unilateral increase of import tariff rates for particular goods originating in Ukraine in FTA-CIS trade after the creation of FTA between EU and Ukraine. Losses in export revenue of domestic producers are estimated for various scenarios of tariff rate changes. The authors define the list of goods whose export to the Russian Federation/Custom Union would stop after the latter have increased import duties to the level of MFN regime of Russian Federation in WTO.
Various measures that Ukraine could potentially take in response to possible changes in FTA-CIS tariff regime were discussed, and conclusions were made about the inadvisability of increasing Ukraine’s import duties in trade with the Custom Union, in the framework of FTA-CIS, to the level of this country’s MFN regime in WTO.
In order to restrict trade in particular goods with CU states, the authors suggest implementing various WTO contingency measures (safeguards, anti-dumping, countervailing).

Keywords: foreign trade policy, trade agreements, free trade areas, tariff trade regimes

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Analysis of dynamics and structure of agri-food exports to the EU has shown that the growth rate of agri-food export is unstable due to high share of raw agricultural goods with high volatility of prices and demand on the world market. Based on the analysis of import share capacity of particular EU markets and EU customs regulations, the author estimates the capabilities to increase exports within and over the tariff quotes. The article provides a list of domestically produced goods that can become competitive on the EU markets when exported in quantities over the tariff quota limits, which includes honey, concentrated juices, processed goods from malt and starch, processed starch, ethanol, sweetcorn, and processed goods from grains. Import tariffs for the quantities over the tariff quota for all other goods, especially livestock products, are de facto prohibitive. Therefore, the long-time priority is to raise the level of tariff quotas.
Analysis of the outlooks of the EU dairy products balance shows that significant entrance of domestic producers to the EU markets would face a lot of problems even after the modernization of the production process in accordance with the EU standards. Soybeans, oilseeds meal, casein, honey, fruit juices, nuts, willow, pasta and confectionery are the only leading goods of Ukrainian exports to the EU, whose export volumes can be actually increased. The probability of increase in exports of corn, wheat, and sunflower seeds and oil is low due to the unfavorable mid-term outlook of EU markets. The author defines various measures to be undertaken by executive authorities, producers' associations and producers in order to ensure the competitiveness of domestically produced agri-food goods on the EU markets.

Keywords: export of agri-food goods, FTA with EU, tariff quotas, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, competitiveness

During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports.
Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized.
Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products.
An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine.
With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine.
A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its economic security and national interests, the Russian Federation has substantially complicated the transit of Ukrainian goods to Kazakhstan from January 2016, and since July 2016, it even temporarily banned the transit, through its territory, of those Ukrainian goods, which are subject to import duty with rates different from 0, as well as goods on which import embargo was im-posed in accordance with the Decree of the Government of Russian Federation No. 778 of 07.08.2014. Actually the transit ban involved 90% of all Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan.
The most suffered are the exporters of machine-building and metallurgical products, whose deliveries decreased by 3 and 5 times, respectively. To restore exports to Kazakhstan, it is expe-dient, using the WTO mechanisms and procedures, to attain the lift of the ban on the transit of Ukrainian goods through the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as to intensify the activities of creating transport corridors bypassing the territory of the Russian Federation for the delivery of goods to Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries, in particular, using the TRACECA corridor.
To expand the exports of metallurgical products, it is necessary to carry out the following measures: to raise the quality of products by raising the volume of steel production in electric furnaces, converters, and creating mini and micro plants as businesses able to react promptly and flexibly to fluctuations in the market of metal products; to increase the output of hot rolled sheet on broadband hot rolling mills based on new technologies and equipment; and to expand the range of metal rolling, in particular to increase the production of cold-rolled sheet with protective coating.
Analysis of the world market of metallurgical products shows a necessity of: development of the production of high-quality transformer and automotive thin-sheet steel; expansion of the production of gas and oil pipes with external and internal coverage by introducing new high-tech technologies; increase in the production of high-quality pipes from continuous cast billets on high-performance continuous rolling mills and the organization of production of new grades of steel with increased corrosion resistance for oil extraction and transportation.
The implementation of these and other measures justified in the article would help overcome the negative tendency of reduction in domestic commodity exports.

Keywords: global trade, conjuncture, export, protectionism, non-tariff barriers, trade agreements, competitiveness

Development of the trade between Ukraine and China generates serious challenges for the national economy, because, presently, the trade with China accounts for more than a half of Ukraine's negative balance in this country's international trade in goods (56% in January-November 2018). Despite the risks of further deterioration of trade balance, Ukraine has suggested to start consultations on the Ukraine-China free-trade agreement (FTA).
The purpose of the paper is to estimate the possible impact of the liberalization of trade with China and to develop recommendations for raising exports and suppressing China's goods expansion on domestic market. In order to investigate the problem and shape the outlook for domestic exports to China, the following steps have been made: (1) compared the structure of external trade in goods of Ukraine and China; (2) evaluated the trade regimes' symmetry between China and Ukraine; (3) identified the characteristics of China's non-tariff trade regulations; (4) analyzed special ties features of negotiating with China on FTA; (5) analyzed the situation with the development of domestic export to China, and identified prospective markets for domestic goods; and (6) analyzed the dynamics of imports of goods from China during 2004-2018. Also, discussed the groups of import goods that are top items by absolute volume and possess a high share in imports and in local domestic consumption.
Analysis of the structure of trade flows between Ukraine and China showed that the most probable development scenario in the trade with China is the increased orientation of Ukrainian export on raw materials and empowering of Ukraine's dependence on the import of Chinese industrial goods. Probability of this scenario is increasing since the trade regimes of Ukraine and China are asymmetrical, which creates unequal conditions of trade that are more preferable for China. It was found that, even in case of trade liberalization as the result of FTA negotiations between China and Ukraine, Ukraine could not expect sustainable increase in exports of agri-food goods, as China has special non-tariff regulations in domestic agri-food markets.
Among the core directions of the government policy of supporting the development of agricultural export to China is promotion of corn export in accordance with the credit agreement of 2012 between State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine and Export-Import Bank of China, and soybean export promotion with the purpose to substitute US in the Chinese import soybean market, which opened up as a result of US-China trade disputes in 2017-2018. Negative trends in bilateral trade are the reason for active government policy promoting the export of processed goods to China, first of all the products of food industry and optical photographic instruments and apparatus that are of high demand in local Chinese markets.
Import dependence of domestic local market remains high without significant signs of decrease. In 2017, the ratio between import and GDP was the highest for the recent 17 years. During 2013-2017, this ratio increased from 0.51 to 0.56. Dependence of Ukraine's economy on import could increase further as a result of liberalization of the trade with China. Despite the benefits for exporters (mostly exporters of raw goods), cheap Chinese import could delay the renaissance of the domestic light industry that has gradually started after a sharp decline in 2013-2015.
Dynamics of goods import from China during 2004-2018 was analyzed, and discussed groups of goods that are the top import items by absolute volume, possess a high share in imports and in local domestic consumption. The research was conducted on agricultural and agri-food goods, and for 4- and 6- digit codes.
Presence of Chinese goods in domestic market is constantly increasing. In 2002-2003, balance of trade between Ukraine and China was positive, and the share of China's goods in market was below 2%, but, starting from 2005, the trade balance has been always negative with share of Chinese goods increasing to 13% (2018).
Machinery accounted for more than a half of Chinese import in 2018, with machinery, instruments and equipment making the highest share. China is the main exporter of telephone equipment for cellular networks, computers and notebooks, photo-sensitive semi-conductors, light-emitting diodes and other innovative and high technology products. China possesses top positions in imports of household electronics and appliances, light industry goods (shoes, toys, synthetic textiles etc.) and other goods. In 74 out of 178 analyzed 4-digit groups of goods, China's share in import in 2017 was higher than 50%.
From the position of domestic market protection, trade liberalization with China could cause high risks for domestic producers. Assortment of industrial goods that are imported from China is very extensive, hence their expansion in domestic market could be quite significant.

Keywords: People's Republic of China, Free Trade Agreement (FTA), trade regime, export, import dependence, protection of the domestic market

The article analyzes the trends of world trade and features of trade policies across the world during the period of economic restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It also analyzes the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade and trade policy measures, which are applied by the government in the pandemic. Based on the identification of challenges and opportunities for the development of this country’s foreign trade during this pandemic and the analysis of forecasts and recommendations of international organizations, the authors substantiate proposals on the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy with an emphasis on the agri-food market.

A comparison of world trade developments in 2020 and 2021 forecasted by international organizations is made in the article. In the first half of 2020, the world trade development was closer toward the optimistic scenario of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank scenario, but the expected second wave of the pandemic may return the world trade trend to the WTO pessimistic scenario, where the world trade could be reduced by 31,9% in 2020. The development of Ukraine's foreign trade also shows a trend close toward the more optimistic scenarios of international organizations - in the first half of 2020 the country’s foreign trade volume only decreased by 10.6% compared to the first half of 2019. In the article, the main channels of the COVID-19 impact on the world trade are indicated, namely: reduction of the production of goods and services due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by countries, disruption of global value chains, rising commercial costs, sharp decline in services, and price decrease of goods with low degree of processing.

As in the rest of the world, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine are largely mitigated by the spread of digital technologies in trade, and conversely, the pandemic stimulates their development. Already in the second quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s exports of ICT services resumed growth and exceeded the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The authors identify advantages and issues of accelerated digitalization of trade in a pandemic.
The protection measures introduced by countries, including Ukraine, after the spread of coronavirus, are analyzed, with an emphasis on policy measures related to agri-food trade. It is proved that the limit of wheat exports during the pandemic is the result of annual memorandum of grain market players, so it cannot be considered a governmental measure restricting trade. It was also proved that the ban on the export of buckwheat introduced by the Ukrainian government, which expired on July 1, 2020, had of a rather socio-political nature, since the supply of buckwheat on the domestic market and the level of consumer prices for this product were guaranteed by import deliveries. This conclusion applies to other goods of significant social importance, whose imports increased significantly during the pandemic, especially for products of animal origin.
The directions of the formation of Ukraine’s trade policy in the conditions of world trade changes and trade policies revision are determined. The spread of the trend towards country self-sufficiency in food will lead to a reduction in food chains, a decrease in import dependence, an increase in state support and, as a result, a strengthening of competitive position of domestic producers. Therefore, full and timely financing of state budgetary programs to support agriculture in Ukraine is of particular importance. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium-sized agricultural producers in the context of the accelerated digitalization of trade as a result of the pandemic, it is necessary to rapidly develop the infrastructure that provides rural areas with high-speed fixed broadband Internet access. Along with the spread of protectionism in world trade, there is an opposite trend of liberalization of agri-food markets, typical for food-importing countries. Thus, the countries-exporters of agri-food products, which include Ukraine, will have easier access to the markets of these countries, new markets will open, and the situation on export markets will improve.

Keywords:world trade, trade policy, COVID-19 pandemic, agri-food trade, protectionism

The paper discusses trends of the world trade development towards multipolarity that is caused by the increasing impact of “newly emerged” leaders, in particular China, and weakening of the domination of “traditional” transatlantic leaders. The development of multipolarity in the world trade is supported by the processes of trade regionalization, especially by signing of megaregional trade agreements on the base of the current balance of power in the world trade.
The details of the regional trade agreements concluded by the world trade leaders – USA, EU and China are described. The academic discussion on the role of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leads to the conclusions that creation of RCEP will induce the creation of a new world trade pole in Asia and the Pacific region during the next decades, where China will play a leading role.
The future of the World Trade Organization and the WTO fundamental principle of multilateral trade relations is the most controversial issue in connection with the development of multipolarity of the world trade. Challenges that were faced by the WTO due to trade digitalization, COVID-19 pandemic and climate changes are analyzed, alongside with sources and causes of the WTO crisis. The spreading of economic patriotism (nationalism) trend that manifests itself in trade as a policy of protectionism is discussed in the context of the transition to multipolarity in the world trade .
The development of multipolarity in the world trade is followed by the processes that must be considered in the shaping of Ukrainian trade policy. The ability of Ukraine to get its “space for maneuver”, which will allow to increase the country’s economic potential in the framework of the new world trade configuration, depends upon this country’s trade policy that is grounded on the analysis of risks and opportunities in the trade relations with “major players” in the world trade.
Development of the trade with China creates significant risks of the increasing of raw materials orientation of export and strengthening dependence on the import of industrial goods from China. Vital risks also follow signing of the credit and investment agreements with China. Chinese investment in agriculture and food industry are the riskiest as they use natural potential of the recipient countries and Chinese technologies to diversify the sources of the food import to China. The shaping of the Ukrainian trade policy with the EU countries in the medium term will be influenced by latter’s new trade policy of Open Strategic Autonomy. The main challenge is created by the EU plans to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which provides for the import tax on the import of the electricity, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, and products from steel and iron. The opportunities, created by the new EU trade policy for Ukraine have emerged due to the EU’s declared support to the countries of the Eastern Partnership that have DCFTA with EU, including green and digital transition. The principle of “autonomy” in the new EU trade policy emphasizes the EU’s ability to make its own choices, reflecting its strategic interests, which has features of the policy of economic nationalism and protectionism and will create a “corridor of opportunities” for pursuing protection measures for the development of domestic industries.

Keywords:multipolarity, world trade, trade policy, regional trade agreements, economic nationalism

The article defines the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy under multipolar globalization, which assumes that the centers of development and trade are concentrated both among developed and developing economies. The article analyzes the development of Ukraine's trade with the leading economies of Asia - China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea, which have created a powerful pole of world trade in Southeast Asia. However, domestic exports to these countries are developing unevenly and at a moderate pace. The latter is explained by the specific features of the trade regime of these countries, primarily the high level of non-tariff market protection. Domestic exports to Asian countries remain extremely undiversified with the predominance of one or two goods in the structure: mainly ores and corn are exported to China, to India - sunflower oil, to Japan - ores and tobacco products, and to Korea - corn and wheat.
Diversification of commodity exports with an emphasis on goods with a higher share of value added is defined as an important direction of trade policy in relation to the leading countries of Asia. In particular, prospective agricultural export products to Asian countries are honey, chicken, dairy products, etc. Prospective industrial goods include inorganic chemical products, fertilizers, wood products, nuclear reactors, etc.
Recommendations for improving Ukraine’s trade policy have been developed, and the need is substantiated to conclude free trade agreements in order to further develop Ukraine’s trade with leading Asian countries. Also, the need to abandon the idea of negotiating a free trade agreement and investment agreement with China has been proven. The article analyzes the policy of economic patriotism pursued by the Indian government, in particular as a response to the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine. The authors note India’s disagreement on issues of opening markets for sensitive agricultural products, which causes the complexity and delay in the negotiations on free trade with this country. Access to the markets of Japan and the Republic of Korea is complicated by the high level of tariff and non-tariff barriers. However, the analysis of the trade policy of these countries shows that a significant part of markets of both agricultural and industrial goods in these countries were opened due to the numerous FTAs. It is recommended to initiate negotiations on free trade with Japan and the Republic of Korea in order to improve Ukraine’s competitive position in the markets of these countries

Keywords:multipolar globalization, trade, trade policy, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, industrial policy, regional trade agreements