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№ 1/2019
KOSTRYTSYA Vasyl 1, BURLAI Tetiana 2
1Ukrainian State Employment Service Training Institute (Kyiv)
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Undeclared work as a 'new normality' globally and in Ukraine
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 1:7-34 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.01.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article describes the modern understanding of the category of "new normality" in the field of employment, including its informal segment. In the economic discourse of the problems of informal employment, the authors indicate two meanings of the category "new normality": the first one characterizes informal employment as a new objective norm (as a characteristic, widespread, and stable phenomenon) of the present and the future; and the second one reflects the transformation of the sphere of employment, including its undeclared segment, in the process of creating a "new normality" under the influence of demographic changes, globalization, digitalization and other global trends.
Analyzed the main global trends contributing to the normalization of informal employment in modern macroeconomic development. Particular attention is paid to the trend of digitalization and significant social challenges due to its spread, first of all, the narrowing of the field of social and labor relations, the growth of unemployment, and the spread of informal employment. Established the factors that determine undeclared labor activity as a new norm of functioning of the global labor market.
The authors substantiate the key systemic risks of transforming a high level of undeclared work into a "new normality" of Ukraine's social and economic development. They include structural degradation of the national economy; demographic limitation for the potential of long-term economic growth; general institutional weakness and the strengthening of destructive institutions; high imbalance in the professional structure of labor demand and supply; and a significant deficit of decent work. One of the priorities of the national policy of state regulation should be the development of mechanisms to counteract and minimize the influence of the above mentioned five systemic factors, which would lead to the transformation of undeclared work in Ukraine into a "new normality" of its socio-economic progress.
Keywords: new normality, informal employment, state employment policy, systemic risks, Ukraine
JEL: J46, J48, О50, P21
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 34) | Download | Downloads :663 |
REFERENCES ▼
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28. ILO (2017). Future of Work. Inception Report for the Global Commission. Geneva.
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30. Zahidi, S. (2018, September 17). Here are 5 Ways for Workers to win in the Robot Age. World Economic Forum. Retrieved from www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ways-to-win-as-a-worker-in-the-robot-age
31. Burrow, Sh. (2018, November 16). Globalization 4.0 must build a better world for working people. International Trade Union Confederation. Retrieved from www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/globalization-must-build-better-world-working-people/
32. World Bank (2018a). World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work. 139 pp.
33. World Bank (2018b). The jobs of tomorrow require more investment in people. Press release number 2019/052 / DEC of October 11, 2018. Retrieved from www.vsemirnyjbank.org/.../jobs-of-the-future-require-more-investment-in-people [in Russian].
34. ILO (2018, January 22). Unemployment and decent work deficits in 2018 will remain high, according to the ILO. Retrieved from www.ilo.org/moscow/news/WCMS_616001/lang--ru/index.htm [in Russian].
35. ILO (2018). ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers – Results and Methodology. 2nd ed. (reference year 2017). Geneva.
36. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2015). Economic activity of the population of Ukraine - 2014 [in Ukrainian].
37. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018a). Unofficially employed population by sex, place of residence and employment status. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
38. Kudrov, V.M. (2011). International economic comparisons and problems of innovative development. Moscow: Justicinform [in Russian].
39. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018b). Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2017 [in Ukrainian].
40. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018c). Quarterly calculations of gross domestic product of Ukraine for 2010-2017 years [in Ukrainian].
41. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019). Gross domestic product by production method and gross value added by types of economic activity (2010-2016). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
42. Sidenko, V. et al (2017). Structural Transformations in the World Economy: Challenges for Ukraine. Kyiv: Tsentr Razumkova; Vyd-vo Zapovit [in Ukrainian].
43. Television news service (2018, March 31). Ukraine embodies the dangerous trend of deindustrialization - Kinakh. Retrieved from ru.tsn.ua/groshi/ukraina-voploschaet-opasnyy-trend-deindustrializacii-kinah-1132872.html [in Russian].
44. ILO (2013). Employment and Social Protection in a New Demographic Context. International Labor Conference, 102nd Session. Geneva [in Russian].
45. The population of Ukraine. Imperatives of demographic aging (2014). Kyiv: ADEF-Ukraina [in Ukrainian].
46. World Bank (2018c). Crony capitalism in Ukraine: impact on economic. Retrieved from documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/125111521811080792/Crony-capitalism-in-Ukraine-impact-on-economic-outcomes
47. Guk, L.P., Peregudova, T.V. (2018). Trends in structural changes in demand and supply of labor force according to the professional structure in Ukraine. Assessment of trends and perspective directions of economic development. Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference (Dnipro, April 14, 2018), 80-84. Dnipro: Perspektiva [in Ukrainian].
48. The Decent Work Support Technical Support Group and the ILO Bureau for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (2014). Informal Economy and Decent Work: A Guide to Policy Tools - Facilitating the Transition to the Formal Economy. Moscow: ILO [in Russian].
49. Kolot A.M. (Ed.). (2017). Decent work: imperatives, Ukrainian realities, mechanisms of support. Kyiv: KNEU [in Ukrainian].
50. Employers began registering their employees massively - the State Fiscal Service (2018, November 7). Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/7/642400/ [in Ukrainian].
51. Depreciation of wages brought the budget more than a billion hryvnia (2019, January 24). URA-Inform. Retrieved from ura-inform.com/ru/economics/2019/01/24/detenizatsija-zarplat-prinesla-bjudzhetu-bolee-milliarda-griven [in Russian].
52. Kostrytsya, V.I., Vitriak, T.B. (2018). European experience in training and raising the skills of public employment services staff. Rynok pratsi ta zajniatist' naselennia – Labor market and employment of the population, 1(54), 41-48 [in Ukrainian].
2. 17th International Conference of Labor Statisticians (ICLS) (2003). Recommendations on the statistical definition of informal employment. Retrieved from www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/guidelines/russian/defempl.pdf [in Russian].
3. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019). Employment and unemployment. Methodological explanations. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
4. Revision of the 15th ICLS resolution concerning statistics of employment in the informal sector and the 17th ICLS guidelines regarding the statistical definition of informal employment. ICLS/20/2018/Room document 17 (2018, October 10-19). Geneva, 20th International Conference of Labour Statisticians.
5. European Platform Undeclared Work (2019). Key Results and Achievements of the European Platform Tackling Undeclared Work: 2017-2018.
6. European Commission (1998, April 7). Communication from the Commission "On undeclared work". COM (1998) 219 final. Commission of the European Communities.
7. El-Erian, M.A. (2010, October 10). Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries (Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture). International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp101010
8. Enste, D.H. (2018, November). The shadow economy in industrial countries. IZA World of Labor. Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). doi: doi.org/10.15185/izawol.127.v2
9. Benjamin, N., Beegle, K., Recanatini, F., Santini, M. (2014, May). Informal Economy and the World Bank. World Bank' Policy Research Working Paper, 6888. doi: doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6888
10. Jutting, J., de Laiglesia, J. (Eds.) (2009). Is Informal Normal? Towards More and Better Jobs in Developing Countries. OECD Development Centre. Paris: OECD. doi: doi.org/10.1787/9789264059245-en
11. OECD (2009, April, 8). Rising informal employment will increase poverty. Retrieved from www.oecd.org/development/risinginformalemploymentwillincreasepoverty.htm
12. ILO (2018a). Women and Men in the Informal Economy: a Statistical Picture (third edition). Geneva: International Labour Office.
13. ILO (2018b). World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018. Geneva: International Labour Office. doi: doi.org/10.1002/wow3.125
14. Rani, U. (2017, November 10-12). Old and New Forms of Informal Labour. Paper presented at the WIEGO 20th Anniversary Research Conference on "Informal Economy". USA, Harvard University.
15. Tawab, G.A. (2017, June 21). Informal is the new normal: Why informal employment is here to stay. Ford Foundation Center for Social Justice. Retrieved from www.fordfoundation.org/ideas/equals-change-blog/posts/informal-is-the-new-normal-why-informal-employment-is-here-to-stay/
16. Stuart, E., Samman, E., Hunt, A. (2018, January). Informal is the new normal. Improving the lives of workers at risk of being left behind. Overseas Development Institute' Working Paper, 530. London: Overseas Development Institute.
17. Albrecht, Th. (2019, January 22). A human-centred agenda for the future of work. Retrieved from www.socialeurope.eu/author/thorben-albrecht
18. Chen, M. (2018, October 18). The Future of Informal Work, the Future of Statistics on Informal Work. WIEGO Network Harvard University. ILO High-Level Panel on the Future of Work at the 20th International Conference of Labour Statisticians.
19. Vedernikova, S.V. (2017). Modern trends of globalization. Problemy systemnoho pidkhodu v ekonomitsi – Problems of a systemic approach in economics, 5(61), 16-22 [in Ukrainian].
20. UNDP (2018, July). What does it mean to leave no one behind? A UNDP discussion paper and framework for implementation.
21. OECD, UN Environment (2018, May 3-4). The New Normal. An expert dialogue on shaping decisions, attitudes and behaviour to achieve Sustainable Development Goals. Key messages and summary of discussion.
22. OECD (2018). OECD Social Policy Forum: The Future of Social Policy. Remarks by Angel Gurría, OECD Secretary-General on 14 May 2018, Montreal, Canada. Retrieved from www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/oecd-social-policy-forum-future-of-social-policy-canada-may-2018.htm
23. OECD (2016, May). New Forms of Work in the Digital Economy. 2016 Ministerial Meeting on the Digital Economy. Technical Report. OECD Digital Economy Papers, 260
24. World Economic Forum (2018, September 17). Machines will do more tasks than humans by 2025 but Robot Revolution will still create 58 million net new jobs in next five years. Retrieved from reports.weforum.org/future-of-jobs-2018/press-releases/
25. McKinsey Global Institute (2017, December). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.
26. Decent Work Technical Support Group and ILO Office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (2018). G20 Summit: Declaration of Heads of State and Government: to build the future of the world of work, thinking first and foremost about people. Press release dated December 1, 2018. Retrieved from www.ilo.org/moscow/news/WCMS_652197/lang--ru/index.htm [in Russian].
27. International Labor Office (2015). Initiative of the century concerning the future of the world of work. Report by ILO Director-General G. Ryder. International Labor Conference, 104th Session. Geneva [in Russian].
28. ILO (2017). Future of Work. Inception Report for the Global Commission. Geneva.
29. ILO (2019). Working for a better future is the Global Commission on the Future of the World of Work. Resume [in Russian].
30. Zahidi, S. (2018, September 17). Here are 5 Ways for Workers to win in the Robot Age. World Economic Forum. Retrieved from www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ways-to-win-as-a-worker-in-the-robot-age
31. Burrow, Sh. (2018, November 16). Globalization 4.0 must build a better world for working people. International Trade Union Confederation. Retrieved from www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/globalization-must-build-better-world-working-people/
32. World Bank (2018a). World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work. 139 pp.
33. World Bank (2018b). The jobs of tomorrow require more investment in people. Press release number 2019/052 / DEC of October 11, 2018. Retrieved from www.vsemirnyjbank.org/.../jobs-of-the-future-require-more-investment-in-people [in Russian].
34. ILO (2018, January 22). Unemployment and decent work deficits in 2018 will remain high, according to the ILO. Retrieved from www.ilo.org/moscow/news/WCMS_616001/lang--ru/index.htm [in Russian].
35. ILO (2018). ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers – Results and Methodology. 2nd ed. (reference year 2017). Geneva.
36. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2015). Economic activity of the population of Ukraine - 2014 [in Ukrainian].
37. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018a). Unofficially employed population by sex, place of residence and employment status. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
38. Kudrov, V.M. (2011). International economic comparisons and problems of innovative development. Moscow: Justicinform [in Russian].
39. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018b). Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2017 [in Ukrainian].
40. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018c). Quarterly calculations of gross domestic product of Ukraine for 2010-2017 years [in Ukrainian].
41. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019). Gross domestic product by production method and gross value added by types of economic activity (2010-2016). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
42. Sidenko, V. et al (2017). Structural Transformations in the World Economy: Challenges for Ukraine. Kyiv: Tsentr Razumkova; Vyd-vo Zapovit [in Ukrainian].
43. Television news service (2018, March 31). Ukraine embodies the dangerous trend of deindustrialization - Kinakh. Retrieved from ru.tsn.ua/groshi/ukraina-voploschaet-opasnyy-trend-deindustrializacii-kinah-1132872.html [in Russian].
44. ILO (2013). Employment and Social Protection in a New Demographic Context. International Labor Conference, 102nd Session. Geneva [in Russian].
45. The population of Ukraine. Imperatives of demographic aging (2014). Kyiv: ADEF-Ukraina [in Ukrainian].
46. World Bank (2018c). Crony capitalism in Ukraine: impact on economic. Retrieved from documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/125111521811080792/Crony-capitalism-in-Ukraine-impact-on-economic-outcomes
47. Guk, L.P., Peregudova, T.V. (2018). Trends in structural changes in demand and supply of labor force according to the professional structure in Ukraine. Assessment of trends and perspective directions of economic development. Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference (Dnipro, April 14, 2018), 80-84. Dnipro: Perspektiva [in Ukrainian].
48. The Decent Work Support Technical Support Group and the ILO Bureau for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (2014). Informal Economy and Decent Work: A Guide to Policy Tools - Facilitating the Transition to the Formal Economy. Moscow: ILO [in Russian].
49. Kolot A.M. (Ed.). (2017). Decent work: imperatives, Ukrainian realities, mechanisms of support. Kyiv: KNEU [in Ukrainian].
50. Employers began registering their employees massively - the State Fiscal Service (2018, November 7). Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/7/642400/ [in Ukrainian].
51. Depreciation of wages brought the budget more than a billion hryvnia (2019, January 24). URA-Inform. Retrieved from ura-inform.com/ru/economics/2019/01/24/detenizatsija-zarplat-prinesla-bjudzhetu-bolee-milliarda-griven [in Russian].
52. Kostrytsya, V.I., Vitriak, T.B. (2018). European experience in training and raising the skills of public employment services staff. Rynok pratsi ta zajniatist' naselennia – Labor market and employment of the population, 1(54), 41-48 [in Ukrainian].
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