Articles by : Versal N. № 4/2016
Forecasting methods and models
VERSAL N. 1, STAVYTSKYI A. 2
1Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
2Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Trends in dollarization of Ukrainian banking sector
ABSTRACT ▼
The article disclosed approach to the definition of dollarization of the banking sector, which means the calculation of deposit dollarization as the ratio of foreign currency deposits to local currency deposits, and loan dollarization as the ratio of foreign currency loans to local currency loans. The analysis of household deposits in local and foreign currencies for the years 2005-2016 showed that foreign currency deposits of individuals are characterized by a higher level of volatility than the local currency deposits. Calculation of the ratio of foreign currency loans to foreign currency deposits showed that during the investigated period it was always higher than one, even in times of crisis, indicating a steady demand of banks for foreign currency resources. The econometric model is proposed for speed estimating of individual decisions for changing amount of foreign currency deposits, which includes two main factors: volatility in exchange rates and the presence of panic among depositors. According to the model, the return of foreign currency deposits by individuals to banks is possible only in case of stability (relative stability) of foreign exchange rates for four months.
Keywords: financial dollarization, banking sector, foreign exchange rate, foreign currency deposits, foreign currency loans, model for estimating speed of individual decisions for changing amount of foreign currency deposits
JEL: G21
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 106 - 117) | Download | Downloads :592 |
REFERENCES ▼
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