Articles by : Kobuta Iryna № 4/2011
Economics of agriculture
KOBUTA Iryna 1
1Markets and Trade Division, Economic and Social Development stream, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Unions, Italy
Assessment of the consequences of the state regulation of Ukraine’s grain exports
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2011; 4:139-147 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author considers the importance of grain experts for this country’s economy and agricul-tural development and assesses the consequences of the state regulation of grain exports in Ukraine in recent years with the use of the OECR methodology. The article provides rec-ommendation as to the ways of raising the efficiency of the government’s actions on the regulation of the grain market
Keywords:exports, agricultural produce, state regulation, export restrictions
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 139 - 147) | Download | Downloads :555 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Zakon Ukrainy vid 19 travnia 2011 r. № 3397IV "Pro vnesennia zmin do Podatkovogo kodeksu Ukrainy ta pro stavky vyviznogo (eksportnogo) myta na deiaki vydy zernovykh kultur", Ofitsiynyi visnyk Ukrainy vid 24.06.2011, № 45, S. 12.
2. Zhygadlo V., Sikachyna O., Vyrobnytstvo zernovykh ta oliynykh kultur v Ukraini: problemy ta perspektyvy v umovakh svitovoi prodovolchoi kryzy, Analitychnodoradchyi tsentr Blakytnoi strichky PROON v Ukraini, K, 2008, 44 s.
3. Ukraina: Agrokholdingi i perspektivy rynka zemli, V.Lapa, A.Lissitsa, A.Polivodskij, M.Fedorchenko i dr., Ukrainskaya agrarnaya konfederaciya, Ukragrokonsalt, 2007, 55 s.
4. Ukaz Prezydenta Ukrainy vid 29.06.2000 r. № 832 200 "Pro negayni zakhody v stymuliuvanni provedennia i rozvytku rynku zerna", Ofitsiynyi visnyk Ukrainy vid 14.07.2000 r, № 26, S. 51.
5. Kobuta I., Zhigadlo V.,Sikachina A., Ekonomika eksporta pshenicy v Ukraine, (Issledovanie podgotovleno dlya Prodovol`stvennoj i sel`skokhozyajstvennoj organizacii OON), 2011, 57 s.
№ 2/2014
Market: forecast and conjuncture
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, LIEHR Viktor 2, KOBUTA Iryna 3, OLEFIR Volodymyr Kostiantynovych4, BYKONIA Oleksandr 5
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Markets and Trade Division, Economic and Social Development stream, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Unions, Italy
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
5Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Assessment of risk and losses in Ukraine's trade from non-tariff barriers introduced by EES / Customs Union
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 2:21-35 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the important issues of the existing non-tariff barriers in the trade between Ukraine and the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan), and the peculiar features in the formation of a new system of technical regulation in Eurasian Economic Space / Customs Union and Ukraine.
The new legislation of the CU and EES on technical regulation causes a sharp decline in the exports of the Ukrainian goods, which are a subject of the new trade regulations. On the other hand, those Ukrainian goods, which are not covered by the new technical regulations, still keep good prospects at the EES market.
The authors make the conclusions regarding the usefulness of the implementation of the Customs Union's alternative technical regulations in Ukraine. The article evaluates the potential losses in Ukraine's foreign trade due to the application of the Customs Union / EES's technical regulations to analogous industrial and agricultural products; also, it analyzes various cases of bans on the import of goods into the Customs Union.
The losses of Ukraine's export revenues in the trade with the EES due to the existing technical barriers, such as the CU technical regulations, amount to at least US 1 bln annually. Adoption, by Ukraine, of some of the alternative CU technical regulations would help avoid losses in the exports to the Eurasian Economic Space.
Keywords: trade policy, trade agreements, non-tariff barriers, technical regulations
JEL: F19; F40
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 21 - 35) | Download | Downloads :773 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Tamozhennyj soyuz i texnicheskoe regulirovanie. Tamozhennyj Broker,
www.brokert.ru
2. Zhukova, Yu.D., Loshhilin, V.S. Texnicheskoe regulirovanie: aktual'nye problemy. Nauchnaya zhizn',
www.polyset.ru/article/st745.php
3. Ustranenie texnicheskix bar'erov v torgovle so stranami SNG – predmet novogo soglasheniya chlenov Tamozhennogo soyuza,
www.uls-global.ru/info/news
4. Sluchai zapreta na vvoz v RF produktoviz drugix stran v 2006-2013 gg. RIANovosti,
ria.ru/spravka/20130729/952760337.html#ixzz3qFYjb3KW
5. Model' tehnichnogo reguljuvannja, zaprovadzhena v JeS, je najbil'sh efektyvnoju dlja mizhnarodnogo spivrobitnyctva. Formuvannja systemy tehnichnogo reguljuvannja v Ukrai'ni. RBK Ukrai'na,
www.rbc.ua/ukr/finance/show/model_tehniche-skogo_regulirovaniya_vvedennaya_v_es_yavlyaetsya_naibolee_effektivnoy_dlya_mezhdunarodnogo_sotrudnichestva_spetsialisty_06042010
6. Shtefan, N.V. Tehnichne reguljuvannja v Ukrai'ni: problemy ta dosjagnennja. Normatyvni Aspekty Vymirjuvan',
www.archive.nbuv.gov.ua/portal/natural/soi/2011_6/shtef.pdf№ 3/2020
Market: forecast and conjuncture
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, KOBUTA Iryna 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Markets and Trade Division, Economic and Social Development stream, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Unions, Italy
Changes in world trade and trade policy in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and opportunities for Ukraine
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the trends of world trade and features of trade policies across the world during the period of economic restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It also analyzes the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade and trade policy measures, which are applied by the government in the pandemic. Based on the identification of challenges and opportunities for the development of this country’s foreign trade during this pandemic and the analysis of forecasts and recommendations of international organizations, the authors substantiate proposals on the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy with an emphasis on the agri-food market.
A comparison of world trade developments in 2020 and 2021 forecasted by international organizations is made in the article. In the first half of 2020, the world trade development was closer toward the optimistic scenario of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank scenario, but the expected second wave of the pandemic may return the world trade trend to the WTO pessimistic scenario, where the world trade could be reduced by 31,9% in 2020. The development of Ukraine's foreign trade also shows a trend close toward the more optimistic scenarios of international organizations - in the first half of 2020 the country’s foreign trade volume only decreased by 10.6% compared to the first half of 2019. In the article, the main channels of the COVID-19 impact on the world trade are indicated, namely: reduction of the production of goods and services due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by countries, disruption of global value chains, rising commercial costs, sharp decline in services, and price decrease of goods with low degree of processing.
As in the rest of the world, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine are largely mitigated by the spread of digital technologies in trade, and conversely, the pandemic stimulates their development. Already in the second quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s exports of ICT services resumed growth and exceeded the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The authors identify advantages and issues of accelerated digitalization of trade in a pandemic.
The protection measures introduced by countries, including Ukraine, after the spread of coronavirus, are analyzed, with an emphasis on policy measures related to agri-food trade. It is proved that the limit of wheat exports during the pandemic is the result of annual memorandum of grain market players, so it cannot be considered a governmental measure restricting trade. It was also proved that the ban on the export of buckwheat introduced by the Ukrainian government, which expired on July 1, 2020, had of a rather socio-political nature, since the supply of buckwheat on the domestic market and the level of consumer prices for this product were guaranteed by import deliveries. This conclusion applies to other goods of significant social importance, whose imports increased significantly during the pandemic, especially for products of animal origin.
The directions of the formation of Ukraine’s trade policy in the conditions of world trade changes and trade policies revision are determined. The spread of the trend towards country self-sufficiency in food will lead to a reduction in food chains, a decrease in import dependence, an increase in state support and, as a result, a strengthening of competitive position of domestic producers. Therefore, full and timely financing of state budgetary programs to support agriculture in Ukraine is of particular importance. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium-sized agricultural producers in the context of the accelerated digitalization of trade as a result of the pandemic, it is necessary to rapidly develop the infrastructure that provides rural areas with high-speed fixed broadband Internet access. Along with the spread of protectionism in world trade, there is an opposite trend of liberalization of agri-food markets, typical for food-importing countries. Thus, the countries-exporters of agri-food products, which include Ukraine, will have easier access to the markets of these countries, new markets will open, and the situation on export markets will improve.
Keywords:world trade, trade policy, COVID-19 pandemic, agri-food trade, protectionism
JEL: F13, F14
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 24) | Download | Downloads :718 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. WTO DG welcomes G7 leaders’ statement on COVID-19 (2020, March 17). Retrieved from
www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/dgra_17mar20_e.htm
2. Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy (2020, April 8). WTO press release. Retrieved from
www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm
3. Trade Falls Steeply in First Half of 2020 (2020, June 23). Trade Statistics and Outlook. WTO Press Release. Retrieved from
www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr858_e.pdf
4. Global Economic Prospects (June 2020). World Bank. Washington, DC. Retrieved from
openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33748
5. OECD Economic Outlook. Vol. 2020. Is.1. №107. Retrieved from
read.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook/volume-2020/issue-1_0d1d1e2e-en#page31
6. Schmidhuber, J. Pound, J. Qiao, B. (2020). COVID-19: Channels of transmission to food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome, 2020. Retrieved from
www.fao.org/3/ca8430en/CA8430EN.pdf
7. Operational Assessment of GDP (2020, August 14). Express Issue of the State Statistics Service in 2020. URL:
www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
8. Travel & Tourism. Global Economic Impact & Trends 2020. (2020, June). World Travel and Tourism Council. Retrieved from
wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact
9. UNCTAD Commodity Price Bulletin - May 2020 (2020, July 10). Retrieved from
unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/gdsdsicpb2020d7_en.pdf
10. AMIS Market Monitor (2020, July). No. 80. Retrieved from
www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring
11. Big Tech Could Emerge from Coronavirus Crises Stronger than Ever (2020, March 23). New York Times. Retrieved from
www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/big-tech-could-emerge-from-coronavirus-crisis-stronger-than-ever
12. 17 Thousand Settlements do not have any Optical Provider – study of the Mintsyfra (2020, July 30). Retrieved from
thedigital.gov.ua/news/17-tisyach-naselenikh-punktiv-ne-mayut-zhodnogo-optichnogo-provaydera-doslidzhennya-mintsifri [in Ukrainian].
13. Future Possibilities Report 2020. Centennial Lab, Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future. UAE. Retrieved from
www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/20200720_un75_uae_futurepossibilitiesreport.pdf
14. COVID-19: Trade and trade-related measures (2020, July 31). Retrieved from
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/trade_related_goods_measure_e.htm
15. Temporarily restricts import of exotic and decorative animals, including insects, arthropods, amphibians, reptiles and other, live fish and hydrobionts from China (2020, February 3). G/SPS/N/RUS/178. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm
16. Temporarily restricts import and transit of live fish and fish products from China (2020, February 28). G/SPS/N/KAZ/59. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm
17. Requiring any importation and/or movement of animals and pets from Hong Kong, China be accompanied with Laboratory test result for COVID-19 (2020, March 20). G/SPS/N/IDN/132. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm
18. Temporary implementation of export licensing requirements on anti-epidemic goods due to the COVID-19 pandemic (2020, March 31). G/MA/QR/N/UKR/4/Add.2. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm.
19. Export prohibition to supply the Kyrgyz Republic population with strategic food stuffs and other products (2020, March 24). G/MA/QR/N/KGZ/1/Add.1. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm.
20. Due to the global outbreak of COVID-19, temporary export prohibitions were adopted with the aim to prevent the critical shortage of food stuffs (2020, March 30). G/AG/N/THA/107. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm.
21. On amendments to Annex 1 to the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of December 24, 2019 № 1109. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of April 2 № 260. Retrieved from:
zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/260-2020-п#Text [in Ukrainian].
22. Mitigating impacts of COVID-19 on food trade and markets. Joint Statement by QU Dongyu, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Roberto Azevedo, Directors-General of FAO, WHO and WTO (2020, March 31). Retrieved from:
www.fao.org/news/story/ru/item/1268973/icode/
23. WTO Report Shows Members Moving to Facilitate Imports even as Trade Restrictions Remain High (2020, July 24). WTO. Trade Monitoring. 24. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/trdev_24jul20_e.htm
24. Anderson, K. Ivanic M. Martin, W. (2013, October). Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty. NBER Working Paper, 19530. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6535
25. The Ministry of Economy and the grain market participants agreed on the maximum amount of wheat for export (2020, March 30). Press Service of the Ministry of Economy. Retrieved from:
www.me.gov.ua/News/Detail?lang=uk-UA&id=dec6c674-ff93-44b5-bf03-3e7009eb6e65&title=MinekonomikiTaUchasnikiZernovogoRinkuUzgodiliGranichniiObsiagPshenitsiDliaEksportu [in Ukrainian].
26. Demeke, M. Pangrazio, G. Maetz, M. (2009). Country responses to the food security crisis: Nature and Preliminary implications of the policies pursued. Initiative on Soaring Food Prices. FAO, Rome. Retrieved from:
www.fao.org/3/a-au717e.pdf
27. Report of the TPRB from the Director-General on Trade-Related Developments (mid-October 2019 to mid-May 2020) (2020, July 10). Annex 1 - Measures Facilitating Trade. Trade Policy Review Body. Retrieved from:
www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/trdev_24jul20_e.htm
28. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine "On measures to stabilize prices for goods of significant social significance, anti-epidemic goods" of April 22, 2020 № 341.
Retrieved from:
zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/341-2020-п#Text [in Ukrainian].