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№ 1/2014
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Formation of Ukraine's energy system
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 1:87-96 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the actual and current problems to ensure the reliability and effectiveness of national power. Relevance of the research is due to problems arising in the electricity industry in Ukraine and possibilities of their solution by implementing demand management of electricity. Methods which are used in the leading countries include the use of two-way communication between supplier and consumer of electricity. In the article, the author defines the necessity of modernizing the existing energy system and the transition to a new level of integrated power system of Ukraine.In the developed countries, the concept of smart grids is considered the most promising direction of the development of energy supply. New grids provide the implementation of ICT in the energy sector. The rapid development of smart grid technology makes it possible to transform the existing energy system, to implement new management techniques demand and consumption of electricity, and to solve problems of reliability of power supply.The author justifies the necessity of transformation of the existing management and control through the integration of ICT and energy technologies. To use technology plat-form, it is suggested to solve the problem of implementing information technology in the energy sector. This tool is prospective in solving the problems of economic modernization and implementation of large technology projects
Keywords:smart grid, demand response, reliability of power supply, quality of electri¬city, technology platform
JEL: L10, L94, L98, O32, O33
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 87 - 96) | Download | Downloads :596 |
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2. Nahodov, V.F., Jaroc'ka, T.V., Gorbenko, A.O. (2011). The methodology of the analysis and correction of influence of differentiated tariffs for configuration graphs load power Ukraine. Visnyk Vinnyc'kogo politehnichnogo instytutu – Bulletin of Vinnytsia Polytechnic Institute, 72–75 [in Ukrainian].
3. Myca, N.V. (2010). Managing electricity demand as a prerequisite of effective financial power supplying company. Visnyk Hmel'nyc'kogo nacional'nogo universytetu – Herald of Khmelnytsky National University, 6, 93–98 [in Ukrainian].
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7. Order of the Ministry of Fuel and Energy of 29.12.2009 N 668 “On Amendments to the Regulations on the investigation process and accounting violations at the power plants and the united energy system of Ukraine”. Retrieved from zakon4.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0208-09 [in Ukrainian].
8. In Vyshnevoye twice jumped the electrical voltage in many homes started the fire. Racurs. – Racurs. n. d. Retrieved from racurs.ua/9674-u-vyshnevomu-vdvichi-pidckochyla-elektronapruga-v-bagatoh-oselyah-pochalys-pojeji [in Ukrainian]
9. Energy Strategy of Ukraine till 2030. The Ministry of energy and coal industry of Ukraine. Retrieved from mpe.kmu.gov.ua/fuel/control/uk/doccatalog/list?currDir=50358 [in Ukrainian].
10. Dubynskyj, E.V. Managing demand for electric power in Moscow. Non-commercial partnership "Engineers for heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, heating in building thermal physics". n. d. Retrieved from www.abok.ru/for_spec/articles.php?nid=209 [in Russian].
11. Zgurovec', O.V. & Kostenko, G.P. (2007). Efficient methods for the control of electrical energy consumption. Problemi zagal'noy energetiki. – The problem of Energy, 16, 75–80 [in Ukrainian].
12. Voronov, Ju.P. (2011). Modernization of electrical networks as a real prospect of the revival of the industry of Russia. JeKO – EKO, 4, 72–86 [in Russian].
13. Kobec, B.B.& Volkova, I.O. (2009). Smart Grid in the electric power industry. Jenergeticheskaja politika – Energy policy, 6, 54–56 [in Russian].
14. Burkov, V.N., Gubko, M.V., Novikov, D.A. (2012). Organizational management mechanisms in the development of large-scale electric power systems. Moscow: Izdatel'stvo fiziko-matematicheskoj literatury, 261–278 [in Russian].
15. Rudnik, P.B. (2011). Technology Platforms in the practice of the Russian innovation policy. Forsajt. –– Foresight, 5:1, 16–25 [in Russian].
16. .Fedulova, L.I. (2011). Future development of science in the post-crisis period. Visnyk Nacional'noi' akademii' nauk Ukrai'ny – Herald of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 3, 3–12 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 2/2014
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, LIEHR Viktor 2, KOBUTA Iryna 3, OLEFIR Volodymyr Kostiantynovych4, BYKONIA Oleksandr 5
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Markets and Trade Division, Economic and Social Development stream, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Unions, Italy
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
5Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Assessment of risk and losses in Ukraine's trade from non-tariff barriers introduced by EES / Customs Union
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 2:21-35 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the important issues of the existing non-tariff barriers in the trade between Ukraine and the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan), and the peculiar features in the formation of a new system of technical regulation in Eurasian Economic Space / Customs Union and Ukraine.
The new legislation of the CU and EES on technical regulation causes a sharp decline in the exports of the Ukrainian goods, which are a subject of the new trade regulations. On the other hand, those Ukrainian goods, which are not covered by the new technical regulations, still keep good prospects at the EES market.
The authors make the conclusions regarding the usefulness of the implementation of the Customs Union's alternative technical regulations in Ukraine. The article evaluates the potential losses in Ukraine's foreign trade due to the application of the Customs Union / EES's technical regulations to analogous industrial and agricultural products; also, it analyzes various cases of bans on the import of goods into the Customs Union.
The losses of Ukraine's export revenues in the trade with the EES due to the existing technical barriers, such as the CU technical regulations, amount to at least US 1 bln annually. Adoption, by Ukraine, of some of the alternative CU technical regulations would help avoid losses in the exports to the Eurasian Economic Space.
Keywords: trade policy, trade agreements, non-tariff barriers, technical regulations
JEL: F19; F40
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 21 - 35) | Download | Downloads :764 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Zhukova, Yu.D., Loshhilin, V.S. Texnicheskoe regulirovanie: aktual'nye problemy. Nauchnaya zhizn', www.polyset.ru/article/st745.php
3. Ustranenie texnicheskix bar'erov v torgovle so stranami SNG – predmet novogo soglasheniya chlenov Tamozhennogo soyuza, www.uls-global.ru/info/news
4. Sluchai zapreta na vvoz v RF produktoviz drugix stran v 2006-2013 gg. RIANovosti, ria.ru/spravka/20130729/952760337.html#ixzz3qFYjb3KW
5. Model' tehnichnogo reguljuvannja, zaprovadzhena v JeS, je najbil'sh efektyvnoju dlja mizhnarodnogo spivrobitnyctva. Formuvannja systemy tehnichnogo reguljuvannja v Ukrai'ni. RBK Ukrai'na, www.rbc.ua/ukr/finance/show/model_tehniche-skogo_regulirovaniya_vvedennaya_v_es_yavlyaetsya_naibolee_effektivnoy_dlya_mezhdunarodnogo_sotrudnichestva_spetsialisty_06042010
6. Shtefan, N.V. Tehnichne reguljuvannja v Ukrai'ni: problemy ta dosjagnennja. Normatyvni Aspekty Vymirjuvan', www.archive.nbuv.gov.ua/portal/natural/soi/2011_6/shtef.pdf
№ 3/2015
LIEHR Viktor 1, BYKONIA Oleksandr 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Harmonisation of the systems of technical regulation as a condition of increase in turnover between EU and Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2015; 3:71-88 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2015.03.071 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU provides for the introduction of a deep and comprehensive free trade area (FTA). In this situation, Ukrainian producers are facing two problems: the first one is how to avoid losing the already achieved positions on the domestic market due to possible importation of cheaper and high-quality European substitutes; and the second one is searching for a niche to export, to EU countries, not only raw materials but also of finished industrial products. In any case, a necessary condition for the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers is upgrading their production to meet European standards of quality and safety. The article deals with the problems of reform and harmonization of technical regulation of Ukraine and the EU, whose solution is a prerequisite for increasing and improving the structure of trade turnover between Ukraine and the EU.
The authors present a comparative analysis of Ukraine's position in the global dimension distribution of non-tariff barriers to trade and the competitiveness of the economies of the world. According to the "Global Competitiveness Report" in terms of "Prevalence of trade barriers", reflecting the extent to which non-tariff barriers (technical requirements and standards) limit the ability of imported goods to compete in the domestic market, Ukraine occupies 118th place. Many occasional (ad hoc) notifications on technical regulation indicates the active development of the sphere of trade both in Ukraine and in the whole world.
The authors provide an analysis of the structure and dynamics of foreign trade between Ukraine and the EU. It is established that, as of today, a largely raw-material pattern of Ukrainian exports to the EU has been formed, whereas Ukraine’s imports from EU are dominated by finished and high-tech products. This is despite the fact that Ukraine, on the majority of commodity groups, has its own industrial capacities, though of lower quality and safety standards of finished product.
It is proved that the presence of technical barriers to trade between Ukraine and the EU is a major obstacle to the improvement and expansion of mutual trade structures. The authors define the most significant technical barriers and problems of adaptation of domestic producers to changes in the mode of foreign trade. In the opinion Ukrainian exporters, the most significant barriers to trade are related to the procedures to ensure product quality at all stages of production beginning from design. The issue of testing and certification is in the second place by importance. The third and fourth issues are related to product safety. Thus, the main condition for the expansion of trade between Ukraine and the EU following the introduction of the FTA is elimination of technical barriers to trade.
It is proved that, in the future, provided that Ukrainian legislation is approximated to the EU’s, and the standards and quality infrastructure are properly harmonized, the scope of the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products can be extended to industrial sectors capable to produce competitive products for final use. The authors define domestic industries, which are prospective as to increasing exports to the EU and products that require urgent harmonization of the national legislation with the European one (in accordance with the above mentioned terms of transitional period).
It is established that, together with the significant progress on the harmonization of technical regulation of Ukraine, primarily due to financial and technical assistance of the EU, there are problems and risks of a slowdown in achieving the target parameters of the system of technical regulation and certain inconsistencies between the set priorities and the new terms of trade with the EU which in turn can lead to increased asymmetric effects. The authors make conclusions and set out proposals to solve the above mentioned problems of harmonization of technical regulation between Ukraine and the EU.
Keywords: free trade area, competitiveness, sustainable development, technical barriers to trade, system of technical regulations, technical regulations, standardization, certification, notification
JEL: F15; F19; F40
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 71 - 88) | Download | Downloads :1223 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Dyman', T., Mazur, T. (2011). Safety of food raw materials and food products. Kyiv: VTs «Akademiya» [in Ukrainian].
3. Dyatlova, V. (2011). Market surveillance (foreign experience and approaches to reform in Ukraine). Skhid – East, 2 (109), 27-30 [in Ukrainian].
4. Kozhedub, Yu. (2005). The basis of technical regulations of Ukraine – European Union directives of New and Global approach. Legal, regulatory and metrological support of information security system in Ukraine, 11, 63-70 [in Ukrainian].
5. Koreshkov, V. (2013). Technical regulation within the Customs Union and the common economic space. Retrieved September 10, 2015, from www.niss.gov.ua/public/File/2013_table/0301_prez.ppt [in Russian].
6. Krysanov, D. (2014). The system of technical regulation in the European Union, Ukraine and the Customs Union for the food industry: directions for rapprochement, the possibility of narrowing disparities and reducing asymmetry. Ekonomist – The economist, 2 (328), 4-10 [in Ukrainian].
7. Lozhechkin, V. (2012). The issue of the eighth anniversary of stay of the Polish EU. Hrani – Faces, 7 (87), 15-19 [in Ukrainian].
8. Shnypko, O (2009). The competitiveness of Ukraine under globalization. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, [in Ukrainian].
9. Shtefan, N. (2011). Technical regulation in Ukraine: problems and achievements. Systemy obrobky informatsiyi – Systems of information processing, 6 (96), 17-19 [in Ukrainian].
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12. World Economic Forum (2015). The Global Enabling Trade Report 2014. Retrieved September 10, 2015, from www.weforum.org/reports/global-enabling-trade-report-2014
13. Jakubiak, M., Maliszewska, M., Orlova, I., Rokicka, M., Vavryschuk, V. (2006). Non-tariff barriers in Ukrainian export to the EU. Center for Social and Economic Research Reports, 68/2006.
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№ 2/2017
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, LIEHR Viktor 2, VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych3, OLEFIR Volodymyr Kostiantynovych4, BYKONIA Oleksandr 5
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
5Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
A change in the traditional items of Ukraine's export
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 2:57-74 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.057 |
ABSTRACT ▼
During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports.
Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized.
Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products.
An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine.
With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine.
A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its economic security and national interests, the Russian Federation has substantially complicated the transit of Ukrainian goods to Kazakhstan from January 2016, and since July 2016, it even temporarily banned the transit, through its territory, of those Ukrainian goods, which are subject to import duty with rates different from 0, as well as goods on which import embargo was im-posed in accordance with the Decree of the Government of Russian Federation No. 778 of 07.08.2014. Actually the transit ban involved 90% of all Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan.
The most suffered are the exporters of machine-building and metallurgical products, whose deliveries decreased by 3 and 5 times, respectively. To restore exports to Kazakhstan, it is expe-dient, using the WTO mechanisms and procedures, to attain the lift of the ban on the transit of Ukrainian goods through the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as to intensify the activities of creating transport corridors bypassing the territory of the Russian Federation for the delivery of goods to Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries, in particular, using the TRACECA corridor.
To expand the exports of metallurgical products, it is necessary to carry out the following measures: to raise the quality of products by raising the volume of steel production in electric furnaces, converters, and creating mini and micro plants as businesses able to react promptly and flexibly to fluctuations in the market of metal products; to increase the output of hot rolled sheet on broadband hot rolling mills based on new technologies and equipment; and to expand the range of metal rolling, in particular to increase the production of cold-rolled sheet with protective coating.
Analysis of the world market of metallurgical products shows a necessity of: development of the production of high-quality transformer and automotive thin-sheet steel; expansion of the production of gas and oil pipes with external and internal coverage by introducing new high-tech technologies; increase in the production of high-quality pipes from continuous cast billets on high-performance continuous rolling mills and the organization of production of new grades of steel with increased corrosion resistance for oil extraction and transportation.
The implementation of these and other measures justified in the article would help overcome the negative tendency of reduction in domestic commodity exports.
Keywords: global trade, conjuncture, export, protectionism, non-tariff barriers, trade agreements, competitiveness
JEL: F 10, F 19
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 57 - 74) | Download | Downloads :892 |
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2. Association Agreement between Ukraine, on the one part, and the European Union, European Atomic Energy Community and their member countries, on the other part. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/kmu/docs/EA/00_Ukraine-EU_Association_Agreement_(body).pdf [in Ukrainian].
3. Heyets, V. (2017). Why a new fresh start? Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5-6, 31-38 [in Ukrainian].
4. Hrytsenko, A. (2017). Logico-historic foundations of the cardinal economic change and transition to reconstructive development. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5-6, 39-57 [in Ukrainian].
5. Sidenko, V. (2017). US new trade policy: global aspects. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5-6, 58-66 [in Ukrainian].
6. Ukraine's integration possibilities: prospects and consequences. (2014). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
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8. The White Book: How to realize Ukraine's export potential under globalization. Proposal on the policy of promotion of the development of Ukrainian exports. (2016). Institute of Economic Research and Political Advice. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
9. Melnik, T., Pugachovska, K. (2017). Potential of the EU market of Ukrainian exporters. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: Economics, Finances, Law, 2(91), 5-18 [in Ukrainian].
10. Kovinko, O. (2017). Market attractiveness of the international agricultural markets. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: Economics, Finances, Law, 1(90), 57-73 [in Ukrainian].
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12. Ukraine lost about 90 % of exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan due to the RF transit limita-tions. Retrieved from hromadske.ua/posts/ukraina-vtratyla-blyzko-90-eksportu-do-kyrhyzstanu-ta-kazakhstanu-cherez-obmezhennia-tranzytu-rf [in Ukrainian].
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16. China forecasts corn imports at decade low, spooking exporters. Reuters. Retrieved from www.reuters.com/article/us-china-crops-corn-imports-idUSKBN15O0ZO.
17. Skvortsov, Denis. How Ukraine is using the many billion Chinese credits: energy sector, agro-industrial complex and construction. Sehodnia. Retrieved from www.segodnya.ua/economics/enews/kak-ukraina-osvaivaet-kitayskie-kredity-energetika-apk-i-stroitelstvo-695114.html [in Russian].
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19. Brovinska, Maria. The maize collapse. Is Ukraine under the danger of Chinese embargo? LIHABiznesInform. Retrieved from biz.liga.net/all/prodovolstvie/stati/3467811-kukuruznyy-oblom-grozit-li-ukraine-kitayskoe-embargo-.htm [in Russian].
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№ 4/2018
PYSMENNA U. 1, BYKONIA Oleksandr 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Development of power machinery sector towards realization potential of renewable energy and sustainability
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 4:116-128 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.04.116 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the formation of effective power machinery sector in Ukraine integrating and coordinating development and production of power equipment for the needs of Ukraine's energy sector, and also for the needs of inter-branch and branch industrial development and technical renovation, which could enhance the scientific and technical potential and the innovational development of the economy.
The possibility to increase the domestic accessories ratio in energy equipment production for simultaneous development of RES and power machinery with the aim to maintain the potential growth of RES in the context of energy sustainability is investigated. The authors assess the capacity of power machinery market, conditioned by European Union requirements in relation to RES, energy efficiency and ecology in the segment of small and middle power sector. The localization of production, growth points and supply structure of the power machinery market is presented. It is proven that the major part of energy equipment production for most energy sub-sectors is possible to supply by means of the domestic power machinery, taking into account the prevalent price parity between domestic and foreign power machinery equipment.
The authors consider the directions and mechanisms of regulatory policy with the aim to encourage the power machinery development in Ukraine and to raise the presence of its products for higher energy sustainability, in particular, for a higher level of decarbonization, ecologization and energy efficiency enhancement. It is established that the intensification of power machinery sector carries out high multiplicative effects, hence the sector's development should be considered as one of economic growth drivers. The cross-sector influence of the power machinery sector growth on the national economy is estimated.
Keywords: energy sustainability, power machinery, renewables, scientific and technical potential, innovational growth
JEL: L50, Q29, Q49
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 116 - 128) | Download | Downloads :589 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (2014). Order No 902-o 'On the National Renewable Energy Action Plan for the period till 2020'. Retrieved from zakon4.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/902-2014-%D1%80 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 3/2019
TIMCHENKO Oleksandr 1, NEBRAT Viktoriia Vasylivna2, LIEHR Viktor 3, BYKONIA Oleksandr 4, DUBAS Yurii 5
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
5Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Organizational and economic determinants of digital energy development in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 3:78-100 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.078 |
ABSTRACT ▼
This article concerns digitalization of the energy industry in Ukraine. The authors review the evolutionary aspect of the gradual convergence of ITC and energy technologies and identify the key features and trends in digital transformation of Ukrainian economy. The international experience and the emerging global cooperation in energy digitalization are analyzed. Overall, the energy digitization is discovered to be a universal trend among the most prominent economies despite different prerequisites, interests, and factors concerned. It is shown that the progress in the formation of the intelligent energy supply systems depends on a number of factors. Unique features of specific subtasks that arise during digital transformation of energy industry are analyzed.
The article proposes consideration of the technological platform as a business model for digital development of infrastructure industries. The authors analyze the European experience in the formation and development of technology platforms as a basic tool for implementing innovation policy, economic growth of strategically important industries and technological development of the European Union countries. The potential and role of technological platforms in the process of digitalization of energy are determined. A structure of technological platform suited for the formation and development of the intelligent energy system in Ukraine is proposed. The main tasks and priorities of functioning of the domestic technological platform in the process of digitalization of domestic energy are determined. An organizational and economic mechanism for the formation of the intellectual energy system of Ukraine is developed.
Keywords: digital energy, technological convergence, smart energy systems, ICT, technological platforms
JEL: L50, O32, O33, Q49
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 78 - 100) | Download | Downloads :1046 |
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