Articles by : Illusha S. № 1/2012
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
ILLUSHA S. 1, HERASIMOVA Olena Arkadiyvna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Analysis of regularities of the formation of imports as a result of the international division of labor and cooperation
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2012; 1:65-74 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors consider the basic regularities of the formation of long-term imports trends and assess the confidence bands for an import level by economic activities. The article also defines the main long-term imports trends.
Keywords:free trade, imports, range of imports forecasting, imports indicator, import level
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 65 - 74) | Download | Downloads :478 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Erik S. Rajnert. Reformirovanie Rossii: raund tretij. Sorevnovanie ili sravnitel`noe preimushestvo?, Ekspert, 2010, № 36, S. 20–21.
2. Klocvog F.N, Kostin V.A. Makrostrukturnye modeli , instrument narodnokhozyajstvennogo prognozirovaniya, Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2004, № 6, S. 17–28.
3. Dzhonston Dzh. Ekonometricheskie metody, M., Statystyka, 1980, 444 s.
№ 4/2014
Market: forecast and conjuncture
ILLUSHA S. 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The impact of Ukraine's accession to the WTO on this country's foreign trade
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 4:57-72 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
Objective assessment of the impact of Ukraine's accession to WTO on exports and imports is complicated by superposition of an additional powerful factor – the global economic crisis which makes distinguishing the impact of those factors using direct calculations impossible.
The above mentioned fact has led to attempts to obtain unbiased estimates by methods of mathematical statistics separating the impact on exports and imports of each of these two factors.
To analyze the changes in Ukrainian exports (imports) in 2009-2010, the author used regression dependencies built on database for 2000-2008 in which the volume of exports depends on output and hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate. The absence of a regression constant term reflects the absence of exports (imports) in the absence of economic activities.
Using regression equations, the author calculated expected values of exports (imports) for each economic activity and determined confidence intervals for standard probability (0.95). If the actual value of exports (imports) exceeds the upper limit of the confidence interval and calculated Fisher F-statistic is greater than the critical value for default probability, it is an evidence of positive impact of Ukraine's accession to the WTO on country's exports (imports); negative if the value goes beyond the lower limit.
Keywords: foreign trade, WTO, mathematical statistics
JEL: C120, C190
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 57 - 72) | Download | Downloads :489 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 3/2015
Forecasting methods and models
ILLUSHA S. 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Modeling Ukraine’s technological approaching to the developed countries
ABSTRACT ▼
The implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement poses before Ukraine, the task of accelerated modernization of the economy. In order to determinate the prospects for economic development, we have developed a dynamic simulation model based on forecast tables "input-output", relationships between macroeconomic indicators and limitations that define the conditions of economic and environmental security.
To construct the model, we used coefficients of direct costs generated on the basis data of the developed countries, under the assumption that the predicted values for Ukraine are determined by the current values in developed countries. One of the features of the model consists in using investment function instead of productive one. The coefficients of the investment function, at the beginning of the forecast period (2015), were determined according to Ukrainian statistics, and those as of the end of period (2030) – according to data on the developed countries.
In constructing the model, a new indicator was used, namely the coefficient of technological correlation. During the research, several new empirical laws were found which demonstrates a functional relationship between the volume of external borrowing needed to achieve financial self-sufficiency of Ukraine’s economy (possibility of development without external borrowing) and the following parameters: terms of borrowings, interest rate and marginal growth rate of output. Also, new empirical dependencies were found for the value of external debt and GDP growth per investment unit.
Keywords: macroeconomics, simulation models, tables "input-output", investment, external borrowings, growth rates
JEL: C500, C670
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 104 - 122) | Download | Downloads :760 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Brenner, T. and Werker, C. (2007). A Taxonomy of Inference in Simulation Models. Computational Economics, 30, 227-244. doi:
doi.org/10.1007/s10614-007-9102-6
2. Werker, C. & Brenner, T. (2004). Empirical calibration of simulation models. Papers on Economics & Evolution, 0410. Jena: Max Planck Institute of Economics.
3. Pyka, A. and Werker, C. (2009). The Methodology of Simulation Models: Chances and Risks. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 12 (4).
4. The Influence of the economic crisis on the underground economy in Germany and the other OECD-countries in 2010: a (further) increase. Retrieved from
www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/LatestResearch2010/ShadEcOECD2010.pdf
5. Mensch, G. (1971). Zur Dynamik des technischen Fortschritts. Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft, 41, 295-314 [in German].
6. Kondratev, N.D., Yakovec, Yu.V., Abalkin, L.I. (2002). Large cycles of conjuncture and theory of foresight. Selected works. – Moscow: Economics [in Russian].
7. National Bank. External debt of Ukraine (according to the methodology of the IMF, PBC 5). Retrieved from
www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=63734 [in Ukrainian].