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Articles by : Herasimova Olena Arkadiyvna№ 1/2012Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
ILLUSHA S. 1, HERASIMOVA Olena Arkadiyvna2 1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine Analysis of regularities of the formation of imports as a result of the international division of labor and cooperation | Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2012; 1:65-74 | |
ABSTRACT ▼ The authors consider the basic regularities of the formation of long-term imports trends and assess the confidence bands for an import level by economic activities. The article also defines the main long-term imports trends. Keywords:free trade, imports, range of imports forecasting, imports indicator, import level | Article in Ukrainian (pp. 65 - 74) | Download | Downloads :475 |
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3. Dzhonston Dzh. Ekonometricheskie metody, M., Statystyka, 1980, 444 s. № 3/2013Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
SHYNKARUK Lidiia 1, BARANOVSKA I. 2, HERASIMOVA Olena Arkadiyvna3 1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine Forecasted trends of the national economic development in the context of the creation of FTA with the EU | Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 3:38-58 | |
ABSTRACT ▼ The article presents a forecast based assessment of the change of output by economic activities due to the conclusion of Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU and the corresponding creation of a free trade area. The assessment has been done in accordance with a methodology based on the use of the dynamic input-output model, with the inclusion of the corresponding substitution elasticities, which makes it possible to assess the possibilities and risks, on the domestic market, for Ukraine’s importers and producers in order to timely avoid losses, which may take place due to the accession to the free trade area. The calculations of the effects of the integration were made in accordance with the structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade formed after 2010–2011. The equation of intersectoral balance was constructed based on the input-output tables in basic prices of 2010. The elasticity rates of exports and imports were calculated in accordance with the econometric equations obtained on the data of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2006–2011.
The authors point out that the liberalization of the trade regime, due to the creation of the free trade area would contribute to increased turnover between Ukraine and the EU Member countries. However, the maximum effect will be observed in the first year of the Agreement’s action, when the maximum reduction of the customs tariffs takes place, and in the future, due to the raw materials character of the exports to the EU countries, this effect will disappear. The multiplier effect appearing due to the trade intensification and showing itself in the distribution of incomes obtained from increased exports, will only partly improve the output indicators without changing the general tendency.
Taking into account the fact that the positive influence of the trade effects will be short, the authors justify the need of developing and introducing effective measures for individual economic sectors aimed at overcoming the disproportions of their technological structure, whose aggravation could lead to further losses on the domestic and foreign markets. Keywords: | Article in Ukrainian (pp. 38 - 58) | Download | Downloads :712 |
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HERASIMOVA Olena Arkadiyvna1, HERASIMOVA Olga Volodymyrivna 2 1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2State Institution "Kundiiev Institute of Occupational Health of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine" IMPROVING THE SYSTEM OF INDICATORS FOR ASSESSING THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION AND STRENGTHENING RESTRICTIVE MEASURES IN THE CONDITIONS OF ADAPTIVE QUARANTINE CAUSED BY THE SPREAD OF COVID-19
ABSTRACT ▼ The article deals with the problem of the effectiveness of the state response to challenges to the health care system due to the spread of infection caused by SARS-CoV-2. The authors have carried out an analysis of international economic investigations on its impact on the socio-economic system in general and the health care system in particular. It was found that the vast majority of them examine the impact of various factors on the spread of coronavirus or its effects on individual segments or the economic system as a whole, the response of the decision-making system to the spread of infection, or model different scenarios for health system challenges. However, investigations do not address what criteria should be applied when imposing restrictive measures or what changes need to be done to the threat assessment system to minimize the burden on the health care system. Therefore, the authors analyzed the current national indicators system used to identify regions with a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Based on a retrospective analysis of previous waves of coronavirus spread in Ukraine and the introduction of quarantine restrictions in this regard, it was found that the decision to strengthen quarantine restrictions was delayed. This overloaded the medical system and led to overcrowding, which could have been avoided if quarantine had been introduced early. It is revealed what changes in the assessment methodology need to be made in order to strengthen the quarantine restrictions in time. An assessment of the filling of the hospital stock under the condition of timely introduction of quarantine on the example of the city of Kyiv was carried out and the cost of redundant hospitalizations was estimated. Changes in the current methodology for estimating regions with a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 are proposed, which include the introduction of additional indicators and quantitative changes for existing indicators. Keywords:quarantine measures; pandemic; decision-making system; level of hospitalizations; PCR testing; hospital congestion JEL: H510; H75; I180 | Article in Ukrainian (pp. 52 - 77) | Download | Downloads :123 |
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