The article presents calculations of the projected GHG emissions in Ukraine until 2020 and further until 2050, based on the optimization model of the energy system ""TIMES-Ukraine"". Results show that GHG emissions in 2020 will not exceed half of the 1990 value, which would correspond to Ukraine's commitments under the second period of Kyoto Protocol. Considering Ukraine’s possible target not to exceed in 2050 50% of the 1990 emission level, in case of the low rates of economic development with certain elements of the energy balance optimization, a 15% (according to UN forecasts) decrease in country’s population, insignificant increase in the housing stock and observance of the commitments to the European Energy Community, such an objective could be attained without considerable efforts.
However, low GDP growth rates and population decrease cannot be Ukraine’s national goals so one may expect a more rapid socio-economic development. In this context, achieving the aforementioned target by 2050 would require the effective economic instruments’ implementation to encourage technological modernization and introduction of the low-carbon economy model of Ukraine. Under different scenarios of economic growth various guidelines to reduce GHG emissions are presented. The latter are based on encouraging energy efficiency and energy saving, the use of renewable energy sources, raising the national energy and ecological security and carrying out restructuring measures in order to increase the share of economic activities with high value added and low energy intensity. Besides, the article calls for the introduction of a flexible system of GHG emissions taxation and domestic trade in emission permits

Keywords:energy systems of Ukraine, TIMES-Ukraine model, greenhouse gas emissions, energy supply, modeling, projection

It was found that the participation of Ukraine during the first period action of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) was ineffective as a result of the non-use of significant opportunities of the flexible KP mechanisms and attraction of investments to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy. The second period action of the KP no longer provides Ukraine with such extremely attractive conditions as the first period. The article presents calculations of the expected volumes of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Ukraine until 2020, which show that our state won't be able to meet the international commitments for the second period of the KP in case it ratifies the Doha amendment (in its present form). Moreover, Ukraine may turn from seller, as was the case in the first period of the KP, to buyer of carbon emissions quotas, if it will not implement a well-reasoned and efficient low-carbon policies based on energy conservation, energy efficiency, energy substitution carbon intensity to renewable energy and introduction of innovative technologies. Non-ratification by Ukraine of the Doha amendment (raising ambitions about not exceeding, in 2020, the 42% of the 1990 GHG emissions level) would actually deprive Ukraine of its opportunity to be a Party in the second period of action of the KP, which contradicts the draft EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. In the article, it is offered to the Government of Ukraine to consider a question of the conclusion of bilateral agreements with EU for receiving the help in implementation of the obligations for the reduction of GHG emissions. Such assistance could be provided, for example, in the form of technology transfer in order to provide short-term measures to modernize and increase the energy efficiency of the domestic households.

Keywords:Climate change, Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas emissions, modeling, forecasting, TIMES-Ukraine model

The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price formation in the international trade in natural gas. In particular, it has been established that one of important consequences of the consecutive realization of the policy of the liberalization of natural gas markets in the European countries, became decoupling between the price and principles of gas price formation. That caused a transition from the previously predominant pricing formula in the international contracts ("netbackprice") to the one based on competition principles ("gas-alternative fuel").
In European countries, they mention three basic approaches to defining the gas price in long term contracts. The first one consists in linking the gas price to the price of a basket of alternative energy resources (coal and oil products, which are traded on the stock market and have a "market price"). The other one is based on the price for monthly futures contracts for an indicative oil type (as a rule, it is Brent). And the price level on the spot market is the third reference indicator for the formation of gas price.
In parallel with the existing system of contract relations on the European gas market, in recent years, a principally new market model has been shaping whose characteristic features are a stock market based pricing formation and complete refusal from long term contracts in favor of spot transactions. The elements of the new system have been united into the EU GasTargetModel. It is planned that this model include all EU Member Countries and those of the Energy Community, whose member is Ukraine.
It is established that the contract for the sale of natural gas in 2009-2019 between National Joint-Stock Company Naftogas Ukrainy and Open Joint-Stock Company Gazprom of 19.01.2009 is a typical "take or pay" contract of Groningen type with a linking to oil product price and similar to those used by the Russian monopolist in gas trade in long term contracts with absolute majority of European countries. For Ukraine, that contract allowed a transparent and forecastable calculation of the gas price, and, while the economic justification of the basic price of 450USD per 1000 cubic meters remains disputable, it became an effective incentive to real fuel economy in our country.
The authors justify that the losses incurred due to the conclusion of the gas contract of 19.01.2009 were caused exclusively by the market factors and are similar, in their nature and volumes, to those incurred as a result of lowering prices for and reduction of the world demand for metal items, and the further steps towards its lowering, in reality, not so improved the competitiveness of Ukraine's produce on the world markets, as recovered the previous profitability level profitability of certain activities.
Besides, the high prices for the imported natural gas led to the emergence of private suppliers, in particular, Ostchem HoldingLimited, which, in 2013, supplied almost half of natural gas from abroad. At the same time, the terms of the contracts with Ostchem HoldingLimited are incomparable, in financial and commercial way, to those with Naftogas Ukrainy, which may become a precondition for the appearance of a new private vertically integrated monopoly in place of the existing state owned company.

Keywords: natural gas transfer price formation, European gas market, Ukraine's gas market, liberalization, long-term gas contracts, spot prices

The article shows that Ukraine's participation in the new global climate agreement (Paris Agreement) has a great potential for the country, including financial, technological, intellectual and other benefits. The reason is that the agreement is aimed at raising, by 2025, at least 100 bn USD, from which Ukraine can benefit to modernize the economy, increase welfare and take the path of low-emission development. This path provides a permanent growth capability for the economy without an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and impact on the environment, which is referred to as "decoupling".
Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, Ukraine, like other countries, submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), which stipulates the goal of not exceeding, 60% of country's 1990 level of GHG emissions in 2030. The article proves that such a goal is not enough ambitious, because Ukraine can reach it with a minimal effort. Ukraine has a great potential to reduce GHG emissions to 35-40% of 1990 level by 2030, although for its implementation, considerable investments are needed (from 75 to 100 bn EUR by 2030). Insufficient justification of the commitments (targets) may become an obstacle to attracting enough investments. Therefore, Ukraine should reconsider its commitments under the Paris Agreement before it enters into force.
At the same time, it should be noted that Ukraine to a great extent accounted for the principle of fairness in defining its INDC targets (at least at this stage), because, since 1990, country has made a significant contribution to reducing global GHG emissions, although it was accompanied by significant GDP and output decline. In addition, analysis of the INDC objectives of the large GHG emitters shows that their commitments allow them to significantly increase global emissions.

Keywords: climate change, a new global climate treaty, Paris Agreement, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, low-emission development, greenhouse gas emissions, decoupling, forecasting, TIMES-Ukraine model

The paper focuses on the potential of biogas use in Ukraine. Regulatory policy options for biogas projects were considered, and economic assessment and assessment of biogas projects' environmental impact were made. The results show that the implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine leads to positive macroeconomic effects beginning in 2018-2019. In 2025-2029, additional GDP growth could reach 0.3%. Despite the fact that domestic consumers do not directly participate in investment processes, in the medium and long-run, all groups of households will have positive impact on the level of real income. Wide-scale implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine would lead to moderate structural changes, mainly causing a slowdown in coal output and use, natural gas mining, and steam and hot water supply. The greatest slowdown would be observed in case of coal whose demand is reduced due to the replacement by solid and gaseous biofuels. The use of biogas instead of burning fossil fuels would save 11.462-19.066 million tons of CO2eq.
In order for biogas projects to become available for medium-sized businesses in Ukraine, governmental internal and external loan guarantees should be introduced; lower interest rates on loans through the cooperation of Ukrainian banks with international and domestic financial institutions should be implemented. The cost of capital needs to be reduced; dissemination of information on the benefits of biogas projects, the priority connection to the grid for electricity producers from biogas, the modernization of electricity grids and infrastructure are needed. And in the long term, compulsory use of biogas should be introduced for agro-industrial companies whose activities are related to the formation of wastes.

Keywords: biogas, CO2 emissions, modelling, regulatory policy

The paper presents results of scenario modelling and assessment of energy transition to 2050 in the Zhytomyr territorial community (TC), which provides for a switching from fossil carbon based energy resources in the current TC energy system functioning to 100% use of renewable energy sources (RES) which meets all energy demands and supports the Sustainable Development of TC in accordance with the relevant UN goals. For this purpose, the optimizational economic and mathematical TIMES-Zhytomyr model (no analogues in Ukraine), based on the TIMES-Ukraine model, was developed. It includes 647 energy technologies that are currently available or may be presented in the coming years in Ukrainian market.
For the development of the TIMES-Zhytomyr model, a low-available local energy statistics was processed. As a result, the first energy balance by the form of the International Energy Agency for the large Ukrainian city and the basic energy-technological system of Zhytomyr TC were developed.
Using the TIMES-Zhytomyr model, based on foreign and Ukrainian experience, for the first time, four scenarios of Zhytomyr TC energy system development were designed and modelled, covering all economic sectors and household sector (population). The first one is the Baseline scenario, which displays the possible dynamics of the energy system development without a purposeful energy efficiency policy, the development of RES, etc. Three other scenarios are aimed at studying TC’s transition capabilities by 2050 to 100% renewable energy and environmentally friendly technologies use.
The results of modelling confirmed that the available renewable energy resource and technological potential allows Zhytomyr TC to perform the energy transition to 2050 in an economically feasible and socially acceptable way, significantly reducing energy and carbon intensity of the local economy, substantially eliminating GHG emissions, increasing the welfare of citizens and creating at least 10 thousand new workplaces. It will also significantly contribute to Zhytomyr TC to reach at least 10 of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals.
The research results presented, due to a significant novelty and large-scale relevance of the task, are essential in both the theoretical and practical significance. They can be used by scientists for their research and by authorities and experts for development of local, regional or national level strategies, plans or programs of economic, energy, transport, climate and ecology scope. It can also be considered as one of the first steps in preparation of a comprehensive strategy for the Zhytomyr TC development to achieve climate neutrality in accordance with the current objectives of the European Union.

Keywords:climate change, sustainable development, energy transition, renewable energy, modelling and forecasting, TIMES model