HOME PAGE | |
№ 3/2006
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
State regulation of natural monopolies in Ukraine: the guidelines of improvement
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2006; 3:65-79 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author analyses positive and negative factors inherent in this country’s organ-izational and economic mechanism of the control over prices in the natural mo-nopolies with an emphasis on the main factors of influence in the context of their improvement
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 65 - 79) | Download | Downloads :655 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Borysenko Z.M. Konkurentna polityka derzhavy yak faktor rozvytku ekonomiky Ukrainy, K., Takson, 2004, 344 s.
3. Estestvennye monopolii, Teoriya i problemy regulirovaniya, A.Ya.Butyrkin, M., Novyj vek, 2003, 152 s.
4. Kokorev V. Institucional`naya reforma v sfere infrastruktury v usloviyakh estestvennoj monopolii , Vopr. ekonomiki, 1998, № 4, S. 115–133.
5. Lir V.E. Pryvatyzatsiia yak strategichnyi investytsiynyi resurs derzhavy na etapi formuvannia rynku elektroenergii , Energetyka, ekonomika, tekhnologii, ekologiia, 2002, № 1, S. 12–17.
6. Studencov V. Gosudarstvo i estestvennye monopolii, Mirovaya ekonom. i mezhdunarod. otnosheniya, 1995, № 9, S. 86–97.
7. Udoskonalennia systemy taryfnogo reguliuvannia sub’iektiv pryrodnykh monopoliy , AMKU, MTsPD. Kruglyi stil, (Kyiv, 24 travnia 2006 r.) , 17 s.
8. Vyrobnytstvo ta rozpodil valovogo vnutrishnogo produktu za vydamy ekonomichnoi diialnosti, www.ukrstat.gov.ua
9. Finansy Ukrainy za 2001 rik, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2002, S. 87–88.
10. Finansy Ukrainy za 2002 rik, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2003, S. 77–78; 96–99; 107–108.
11. Finansy Ukrainy za 2003 rik, K., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, 2004, S. 77–78; 106–107; 115–116.
12. Antymonopolna diialnist, Pidruchnyk V.D.Lagutin, L.S.Golovko, Yu.I.Kregul ta in.; Za red. prof. V.D. Lagutina, K., KNEU, 2005, 580 s.
13. Polozhennia pro derzhavne reguliuvannia tsin (taryfiv) na produktsiiu vyrobnycho-tekhnichnogo pryznachennia, tovary narodnogo spozhyvannia, roboty i poslugy monopolnykh utvoren, Polozhennia zatverdzhene Postanovoiu Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy vid 22.02.95 r. №135 www.rada.gov.ua.
14. Malinnikova E.V. Zarubezhnyj opyt regulirovaniya estestvennykh monopolij , Ekonomicheskij zhurnal VShE, 1998, №3, S.342–357.
15. Pro pryrodni monopolii, Zakon Ukrainy vid 20 kvitnia 2000 r. № 1682–III, Vidomosti Verkhovnoi Rady, 2000, № 30, S. 238.
16. Gorodeckij A. Pavlenko Yu. Reformirovanie estestvennykh monopolij, Vopr. ekonomiki, 2000, №1, S. 137–146.
№ 3/2008
TOCHYLIN Victor 1, VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Vertically integrated structures of Ukraine’s mining-and-metallurgical complex condition and development guidelines
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2008; 3:70-86 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors analyze various organizational and economic factors of the creation of finan-cial-industrial groups (FIG) in Ukraine’s mining-and-metallurgical complex (MMC). They consider the main organizational and economic processes and trends of the world metal market. The article reveals external and internal factors impeding the FIG’s development and proposes various guidelines for sustainable development of Ukraine’s MMC
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 70 - 86) | Download | Downloads :653 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Formuvannia velykogo pryvatnogo kapitalu v Ukraini, O.Y.Paskhaver, L.T.Verkhovodova, L.Z. Suplin, K., Milenium, 2004, 90 s.
3. Zagorska T.P., Rynok metaloproduktsii i rozvytok girnycho-metalurgiynogo kompleksu Ukrainy , Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 2005, № 4, S. 95–106.
4. Makogon Yu., Gorno-metallurgicheskij kompleks Ukrainy: mify i real`nost` , Zerkalo nedeli, 2005, 3–9 sentiabria.
5. Osypov V.M., Upravlinnia konkurentospromozhnistiu produktsii metalurgiynoi galuzi NAN Ukrainy; Instytut problem rynku ta ekonomiko-ekologichnykh doslidzhen B.V. Burkynskyi (nauk. red.), Odessa, MPP Even, 2005, 296 s.
6. Chajka V.V., Tendencii razvitiya chernoj metallurgii Ukrainy kak obe`ekta investicij , Aktual`n problemi ekonomki, 2007, № 1, S. 13–25.
7. Velykyi ukrainskyi kapital: vzaiemovidnosyny z vladoiu i suspilstvom, O.Y.Paskhaver, L.T.Verkhovodova, K.M.Agieieva, K., Dukh i litera, 2007, 130 s.
8. Syryk A., Slyianyia pod voprosom , Metall, 2006, № 8, S. 8.
9. Kumm U, Mezencev K, Roland Berger, Chernaya metallurgiya Rossii, Ukrainy i Kazakhstana: vyzovy i perspektivy, Nacional`naya metallurgiya, 2006, № 1, S. 20–27.
10. Rossiyane sozdayut metallurgicheskogo lidera, <www.eizvestia.com./markets/full/36189>.
11. Konkurentospromozhnist ekonomiky Ukrainy v umovakh globalizatsii , za red. Ya.A.Zhalila, K., NISD, 2005, 388 s.
12. Konkurentospromozhnist natsionalnoi ekonomiky, za red. d-ra ekon. nauk B.Ye.Kvasniuka, K., Feniks, 2005, 582 s.
13. Promyslovist Ukrainy u 2001–2005 rokakh: stat. zb,. Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, K, 2006, 304 s.
14. Dani Derzhavnogo informatsiyno-analitychnogo tsentru monitoryngu zovnishnikh tovarnykh rynkiv Derzhzovnishinform, <www.ukraine-tipp.gov.ua>.
15. Barash M.Ya, Venger V.V., Napriamy zabezpechennia stabilnogo rozvytku konkurentsii na rynku girnycho-metalurgiynogo kompleksu Konkurentsiia, Visnyk Antymonopolnogo komitetu Ukrainy, 2007, № 4, S. 34–43.
№ 2/2010
VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych1, TOCHYLIN Victor 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Peculiarities of the interaction between the state and business in Ukraine’s mining-and-metallurgy complex: from support to partnership
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2010; 2:114-128 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors consider the main periods of formation and development of the companies in Ukraine’s mining-and-metallurgy complex, describe their activities during the financial and economic crises and reveal the factors, which negatively affected their development. The article provides analysis of the guidelines of the state support given to the metallurgy companies and proposes directions of the interaction between the government and this country’s mining-and-metallurgy complex in the context of its further development
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 114 - 128) | Download | Downloads :633 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Zagorska T.P. Rynok metaloproduktsii i rozvytok girnychometalurgiynogo kompleksu Ukrainy, Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 2005, №4, S.95 , 106.
3. Makogon Yu. Gornometallurgicheskij kompleks Ukrainy: mify i real`nost`, <www.zerkalonedeli.com>.
4. Osypov V.M. Upravlinnia konkurentospromozhnistiu produktsii metalurgiynoi galuzi: B.V.Bukrynskyy, nauk. red, NAN Ukrainy, Instytut problem rynku ta ekonomikoekologichnykh doslidzhen, Odesas : MPP "Even", 2005, 296s.
5. Crude Steel statistics 2007. World Steel Association, <www.worldsteel.org./?action=stats_search&keuze=steel&country=all& from=2006&to=2007>.
6. Steel Statistics archives 1990–2008, WSA, <www.worldsteel.org/?action=stats_search&keuze=steel&country=32&from=1990&to=2007>.
7. Steel Statistics archives 1990–2009, WSA, <www.worldsteel.org/?action=stats_search&keuze=steel&country=32&from=1990&to=2008>.
8. Vyrobnytstvo osnovnykh vydiv promyslovoi produktsii u 1990–2009 pp., Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua>.
9. Rozvytok sektora chornoi metalurgii v Ukraini, V nadzag., Svitovyi bank, K.: "Milenium", 2004. –110 s.
10. Galuzevi rynky Ukrainy: otsinka stanu ta perspektyvy rozvytku, za red. dra ekon. nauk, prof. V.O. Tochylina, K.: Int ekon. prognozuv, 2004, 78 s, S. 50.
11. Zakon Ukrainy "Pro provedennia ekonomichnogo eksperymentu na pidpryiemstvakh girnychometalurgiynogo kompleksu Ukrainy" vid 17.07.1999 r. № 934XIV (vtratyv chynnist), Elektronnyi resurs, Dostupnyi z,
12. Biuleten Rakhunkovoi palaty Ukrainy, Vypusk 4, 2000, S. 21.
13. Ugoda pro subsydii i kompensatsiyni zakhody, <zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgibin/laws/main.cgi?page=1&nreg=981_015>.
14. Riabokon O. Derzhpidtrymka pidpryiemstv GMK: svitovyi dosvid u svitli rozvytku girnychometalurgiynogo kompleksu Ukrainy, Elektronnyi resurs, Dostupnyi z, <www.dt.ua/2000/2200/4564>.
15. Problemy ta napriamy zakhystu vnutrishnogo rynku, Naukova dopovid, za red. akad. NAN Ukrainy V.M.Heytsia, dra ekon. nauk V.O.Tochylina; dra ekon. nauk T.O.Ostashko, Int ekon. ta prognozuv, K, 2008, 102 s.
16. Naumov D.Yu. Investytsii v modernizatsiiu metalurgiynykh pidpryiemstv Ukrainy ta yikh vplyv na formuvannia struktury i yakosti kadrovogo potentsialu galuzi, Ukrainskyi sotsium, 2008, № 4, S.71–86.
17. Kolesnikov D.V. Gosudarstvennaya promyshlennaya politika razvitiya chernoj metallurgii Ukrainy, Pyataya konferenciya "Metall, 2006: upravlenye, proyzvodstvo, torgovlia y potreblenye", K, 2006, S.1–16.
18. Eksportimport tovariv za krainamy svitu za 2006–2009 pp. Nedorogotsinni metaly ta vyroby z nykh, Derzhkomstat Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua>.
19. Memorandum porozuminnia mizh Kabinetom Ministriv Ukrainy ta pidpryiemstvamy girnychometalurgiynogo kompleksu, Elektronnyi resurs, Dostupnyi z, <zakon1.rada.gov.ua/cgibin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=n000312008>.
20. Pro pershochergovi zakhody shodo stabilizatsii sytuatsii, sho sklalasia v girnychometalurgiynomu ta khimichnomu kompleksi: Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy № 925 vid 14.10.2008 r., Elektronnyi resurs, Dostupnyi z, <zakon1.rada.gov.ua/cgibin/laws/main.cgi?page=1&nreg=9252008%EF>.
21. Kabmin prodlil l`gotnye zh d tarify dlya metallurgov eshe na 3 mesyaca, <www.transport.com.ua/index.php? newsid=11195>.
№ 1/2013
VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych1, TOCHYLIN Victor 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Competition and competitors on the regional markets of ferrous metals
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 1:81-96 |
ABSTRACT ▼
It is argued that economic development of Ukraine’s ferrous metallurgy sector decisive-ly depends on the conjuncture, that is, on the condition and development dynamics of the world metal market, prospects of international cooperation and processes of international integration. That is explained by the fact that Ukraine belongs to the top ten world steel producers and, in 2012, occupied the ten’s place among them, while, as not long ago as in 2011, it occupied the seventh place. Such a loss of leading positions is explained by the considerable use of outdated technologies, low share of the most important progressive metal items in the sector’s produce, high prime cost, dependence on imported energy carri-ers,(first of all, natural gas),world conjuncture and limited possibilities of the sale of metal produce. At the same time, the new industrial countries, such as China, India, South Korea etc., who are practically the main competitors Ukraine’s metal producers on the world re-gional metal markets, with mainly technologically new productive capacities, and progres-sive production structure, have been gradually expanding their output creating a powerful competition to Ukrainian producers. It is possible to resume their leading positions and ex-pand the existing out lets for metal produce by creating favorable conditions for: moderni-zation of the main productive capacities in order to raise energy efficiency and competi-tiveness of the ferrous metallurgy sector; development of the domestic metal market; pro-duction diversification and optimization of its structure as a result of increased number of new metal items, in particular, steel produced by electrical melting, special steels and alloys, increased output of finished steel and tubes with corrosion-resistant coating, calibrated finished steel, curved profiles etc.
Keywords:conjuncture, integration, domestic metal market, regional metal markets, competition, competitors, technological structure of steel production, modernization of main productive capacities, competitiveness, production diversification
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 81 - 96) | Download | Downloads :944 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Adno Yu. Mirovaya metallurgiya na poroge novogo stoletiya, Mezhdunarodnaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2001, № 8, S. 59–68.
3. Ekonomicheskie problemy chernoj metallurgii Ukrainy, monogr., pod obsh. red. S.S. Aptekarya, A.I. Amoshi, Doneck, DonGUET, 2005, 383 s.
4. Makogon Yu. Gornometallurgicheskij kompleks Ukrainy: mify i real`nost`, www.zerkalo nedeli.com.
5. Osypov V.M. Upravlinnia konkurentospromozhnistiu produktsii metalurgiynoi galuzi, NAN Ukrainy, Instytut problem rynku ta ekonomikoekologichnykh doslidzhen, B.V. Burkynskyi (nauk.red.), O., MPP "Even", 2005, 296 s.
6. Rozvytok sektora chornoi metalurgii v Ukraini, Svitovyi bank, K., "Milenium", 2004, 110 s.
7. Naumov D.Yu. Investytsii v modernizatsiiu metalurgiynykh pidpryiemstv Ukrainy ta yikh vplyv na formuvannia struktury i yakosti kadrovogo potentsialu galuzi, Ukrainskyi sotsium, 2008, № 4, S. 71–86.
8. Steel Statistical Yearbook 2011, World Steel Association, www.worldsteel.org/dms/internetDocumentList/yearbookarchive/Steelstatisticalyearbook2011/document/Steel%20statistical%20yearbook %202011.pdf.
9. Crude Steel statistics 2011, World Steel Association, www.worldsteel.org./?action=stats_search&keuze=steel&country=all& from=2006&to=2011.
10. Tarnavskyi V. Novi proekty u svitoviy metalurgiyniy galuzi, news.bau.com.ua/20101102/noviproektivsvitovij.
11. Kukin S. Nashi kitajskie riski: kak spad proizvodstva stali v KNR otrazitsya na interesakh gornometallurgicheskikh kompanij Ukrainy, www.investgazeta.net/kompaniiirynki/nashikitajskieriski163042/.
12. Pysarevskyi A. Yaponskaia metallurgyia: samuray ne sdaiutsia, ugmk.info/art/japonskajametallurgijasamurainesdajutsja/0.html.
13. Tarnavskyi V. Novi proekty u svitoviy metalurgiyniy galuzi. Chastyna 2, news.bau.com.ua/20101103/ noviproektivsvitovij.
14. Osobennosty natsyonalnoy evroyntegratsyy: stal Akhmetova, v Evropu!, finforum.org/page/index.html/_/economics/osobennostinacionalnojjevrointegraciistalr14254.
15. MENA: Middle East & North Africa, www.issb.co.uk/mena.html.
16. Kontseptsiia Derzhavnoi tsilovoi naukovotekhnichnoi programy rozvytku ta reformuvannia girnychometalurgiynogo kompleksu Ukrainy na period do 2020 roku (proekt dlia obgovorennia i vnesennia propozytsiy), industry.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article;jsessionid=AB35C2C59DF75DF911385E1DFA0F3F44?art_id=76204&cat_id=42148.
17. Kondratieva I. Ekspert: Staleva peredbachuvanist GMK, chomu vse she ne rozvalylosia y koly na tse chekaty?, eutg.net/ua/article/3795.
№ 3/2014
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych2, OLEKSANDRENKO Yuriy 3, LIENIVOVA H. 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Estimation of potential losses in Ukraine's foreign trade from the presumable changes in FTA-CIS tariff regimes
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 3:93-106 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article discusses the issue of unilateral increase of import tariff rates for particular goods originating in Ukraine in FTA-CIS trade after the creation of FTA between EU and Ukraine. Losses in export revenue of domestic producers are estimated for various scenarios of tariff rate changes. The authors define the list of goods whose export to the Russian Federation/Custom Union would stop after the latter have increased import duties to the level of MFN regime of Russian Federation in WTO.
Various measures that Ukraine could potentially take in response to possible changes in FTA-CIS tariff regime were discussed, and conclusions were made about the inadvisability of increasing Ukraine’s import duties in trade with the Custom Union, in the framework of FTA-CIS, to the level of this country’s MFN regime in WTO.
In order to restrict trade in particular goods with CU states, the authors suggest implementing various WTO contingency measures (safeguards, anti-dumping, countervailing).
Keywords: foreign trade policy, trade agreements, free trade areas, tariff trade regimes
JEL: F13
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 93 - 106) | Download | Downloads :791 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Ostashko, T.O., Lir, V.E., Kobuta, I.V., Olefir, V.K., Bykonia, O.S. (2014). Otsinka ryzykiv i vtrat u torhivli Ukrainy vid zaprovadzhennia YeEP / Mytnym soiuzom netaryfnykh barieriv. Economy and Forecasting, 2, 21–35.
3. Perechen tovarov i stavok, v otnoshenii kotorykh Respublikoi Belarus y Respublikoi Kazakhstan primeniaiutsia stavki vvoznykh tamozhennykh poshlin, otlychnye ot stavok Edinoho tamozhennoho tarifa Tamozhennoho soiuza (v red. Reshenyia Soveta Evraziiskoi Ekonomicheskoi Komyssii ot 23.11.2012 №92). Utverzhden Resheniem Soveta Evraziiskoi ekonomycheskoi komissii ot 16 iyulia 2012 h. № 55, www.tsouz.ru/db/ettr/Documents/P_55_new(R_92).pdf
4. Postanovlenie Pravitelstva Rossiiskoi Federatsii `O vvedenii vvoznykh tamozhennykh poshlyn v otnoshenii tovarov, stranoi proyskhozhdenyia kotorykh yavliaetsia Ukraina`. Proekt ID 00/04-17072/07-14/12-13-3 ot 30.07.2014. Edinyi portal dlia razmeshchenija informatsii o razrabotke federalnymi orhanami ispolnytelnoi vlasti proektov normativnykh pravovykh aktov i rezultatov ikh obshchestvennoho obsuzhdeniya, regulation.gov.ru/
5. Crude steel production 2013. World Steel Association, www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html
№ 1/2015
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The development of Ukraine's mining and metallurgy companies within business groups
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2015; 1:64-75 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2015.01.064 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Interest in the integration of Ukraine's mining and metallurgical complex appeared in the first half of the 1990s. This was due to the fact that it is exactly integration that allows access to technological innovation, reduces information costs, and improves the potential of relevant resources to overcome the imbalance of the sectoral technology chains.
Indeed, the analysis of trends in the development of ferrous metallurgy within the leading business groups indicates that, thanks to integration, technological and cooperative ties strengthened, favorable conditions were created for a stable flow of raw materials, and, due to entering international metal markets, financial and economic situation of the sector significantly improved.
The author reveals that favorable conditions and opportunities for restructuring the steel production were probably the main advantage resulting from such integration. However, as testified by the analysis of metallurgical enterprises, those opportunities were not used effectively and in full.
On the contrary, being oriented to export of steel products, domestic manufacturers significantly reduced vintage and dimensional assortment along with the output of high-tech items, which led to increasing disparities between the structure of the potential demand for metal, the structure of the metal in demand on the domestic market, and especially the structure of the metal exported.
The study found that, due to excessive diversification of the leading business groups (their activities have extended to the food industry, agriculture, fuel and energy complex, mechanical engineering, insurance, media, etc.) there is a problem of significant reduction in financial investments for steel mills. In this regard, the author proposes to focus the interest of business groups on increasing specialization and separation of the core business
Keywords: integration, mining and metallurgical complex, business groups, product structure of metal exports; financial results, net profit, profitability, capital investments
JEL: F15, O10
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 64 - 75) | Download | Downloads :880 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Kyrij, V.V., Chichkan', O.V. (2012). Principles of formation of financial-industrial groups in Ukraine. Innovatsijna ekonomika – Innovative Economy, 2, 269-272 [in Ukrainian].
3. Paskhaver, O.J., Verkhovodova, L.T., Suplin, L.Z. (2004). Formation of large private capital in Ukraine. Kyiv: Milenium [in Ukrainian].
4. Zakrevs'ka, L.M. (2008). Problems of creation and functioning of domestic financial-industrial groups (FIGs). Kharchova promyslovist' – Food Industry, 7, 125-128 [in Ukrainian].
5. Chorna, O.Yu. Integrated industrial structure: the nature, concepts, classification. Retrieved from www.nbuv.gov.ua/portal/Soc_Gum/Emp/2010_22_1/13Chorn.htm [in Ukrainian].
6. Yaldin, I.V. (2010). Background of the essence and the concept of "integrated business structure". Problemy ekonomiky – The Problems of Economy, 2, 61-72 [in Ukrainian].
7. The development of the sector of steel in Ukraine (2004). Kyiv: Milenium [in Ukrainian].
8. The implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU recommendations based on the experience of Eastern Europe (2015). Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
9. Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Ukraine and enterprises of mining and metallurgical complex (2008, 10 November). Retrieved from zakon1.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=n0003120-08 [in Ukrainian].
10. Tochylin, V.O., Ostashko, T.O., Pustovojt, O.V. (2009). Markets real economy Ukraine: structural and institutional analysis. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
№ 3/2016
VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych1, OSIPOV Volodymyr 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute of Market Problems and Economic and Environmental Research
Structural changes in the world metal trade and their impact on the development of Ukraine's metallurgy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 3:77-93 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.03.077 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the dynamics of structural changes in the world trade in metal products and finds out that the world market is uneven both geographically and by commodity structure and types of trade relations. At the same time, the analysis of world steel production shows that in the last quarter of XXI century, the center of global metallurgy shifted from developed to developing countries. Particularly notable in this context is the Asian region.
The authors reveal that this shift is due to the innovative restructuring of the steel industry in the leading manufacturers, the impetus for which has been the desire of the industrialized countries for cleaner production.
Data on the dynamics of international trade show that, over the past decade and a half, global steel exports increased almost 1.5 times. Despite the fact that the largest consumers of Ukrainian steel products during the period were the countries of the Asian region, the share of Ukraine's steel exports to these countries declined by 23.0 percentage points, primarily due to the complete reduction in exports to China.
Summarizing the factors hindering the development of Ukraine's metallurgical industry allows defining the basic ones, which are the high dependence on external market and low domestic demand.
In order to reduce the negative impact of the external factors on the development of Ukrainian domestic steel industry, the authors propose to focus on technological modernization of the steel plants and expansion of the domestic market through the development and implementation of large infrastructure projects.
Keywords: structural changes, world trade, steel market, Ukraine steel industry, structure of exports of steel products, import of steel products
JEL: F16, O10
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 77 - 93) | Download | Downloads :901 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Aptekar', S. S., Amosha, A. I. (Eds). (2005). Economic problems of ferrous metallurgy of Ukraine. Donetsk: Donetsk National University of economy and trade [in Russian].
3. Makogon, Ju. Mining and metallurgical complex of Ukraine: myths and reality. Retrieved from www.zerkalo-nedeli.com [in Russian].
4. Yaldin, I. V. (2010). Prerequisites of origin and essence of the concept "integrated structure of business". Problemy ekonomiky – Problems of Economics, 2, 61–72 [in Ukrainian].
5. Naumov, D. Yu.(2008). Investments in the modernization of metallurgical enterprises of Ukraine and their influence on the formation of the structure and quality of personnel potential of the industry. Ukr. Socium – Ukrainian society, 4, 71–86 [in Ukrainian].
6. Shevelev, L. N. (1999). The global steel industry, 1950–000 (restructuring, quality, privatization). Moscow: Publishing House "Mashinostroenie" [in Russian].
7. Venher, V. V., Tochylin, V. O. (2013). Competition and competitors in the regional markets of ferrousmetals. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 81–96 [in Ukrainian].
8. Tochylin, V. O. (Ed). (2012). The markets of the real sector of economy of Ukraine in the institutional environment of the WTO : environment and integration. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and forecasting [in Ukrainian].
9. Heyets, V. M., Ostashko, T. O., Shynkaruk, L. V. (Eds.). (2014). Assessment of the impact of the Association Agreement / FTA between Ukraine and the EU on Ukraine's economy (research report). Kyiv: Institute for Economics and forecasting [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2017
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, LIEHR Viktor 2, VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych3, OLEFIR Volodymyr Kostiantynovych4, BYKONIA Oleksandr 5
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
5Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
A change in the traditional items of Ukraine's export
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 2:57-74 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.057 |
ABSTRACT ▼
During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports.
Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized.
Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products.
An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine.
With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine.
A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its economic security and national interests, the Russian Federation has substantially complicated the transit of Ukrainian goods to Kazakhstan from January 2016, and since July 2016, it even temporarily banned the transit, through its territory, of those Ukrainian goods, which are subject to import duty with rates different from 0, as well as goods on which import embargo was im-posed in accordance with the Decree of the Government of Russian Federation No. 778 of 07.08.2014. Actually the transit ban involved 90% of all Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan.
The most suffered are the exporters of machine-building and metallurgical products, whose deliveries decreased by 3 and 5 times, respectively. To restore exports to Kazakhstan, it is expe-dient, using the WTO mechanisms and procedures, to attain the lift of the ban on the transit of Ukrainian goods through the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as to intensify the activities of creating transport corridors bypassing the territory of the Russian Federation for the delivery of goods to Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries, in particular, using the TRACECA corridor.
To expand the exports of metallurgical products, it is necessary to carry out the following measures: to raise the quality of products by raising the volume of steel production in electric furnaces, converters, and creating mini and micro plants as businesses able to react promptly and flexibly to fluctuations in the market of metal products; to increase the output of hot rolled sheet on broadband hot rolling mills based on new technologies and equipment; and to expand the range of metal rolling, in particular to increase the production of cold-rolled sheet with protective coating.
Analysis of the world market of metallurgical products shows a necessity of: development of the production of high-quality transformer and automotive thin-sheet steel; expansion of the production of gas and oil pipes with external and internal coverage by introducing new high-tech technologies; increase in the production of high-quality pipes from continuous cast billets on high-performance continuous rolling mills and the organization of production of new grades of steel with increased corrosion resistance for oil extraction and transportation.
The implementation of these and other measures justified in the article would help overcome the negative tendency of reduction in domestic commodity exports.
Keywords: global trade, conjuncture, export, protectionism, non-tariff barriers, trade agreements, competitiveness
JEL: F 10, F 19
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 57 - 74) | Download | Downloads :905 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Association Agreement between Ukraine, on the one part, and the European Union, European Atomic Energy Community and their member countries, on the other part. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/kmu/docs/EA/00_Ukraine-EU_Association_Agreement_(body).pdf [in Ukrainian].
3. Heyets, V. (2017). Why a new fresh start? Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5-6, 31-38 [in Ukrainian].
4. Hrytsenko, A. (2017). Logico-historic foundations of the cardinal economic change and transition to reconstructive development. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5-6, 39-57 [in Ukrainian].
5. Sidenko, V. (2017). US new trade policy: global aspects. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5-6, 58-66 [in Ukrainian].
6. Ukraine's integration possibilities: prospects and consequences. (2014). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
7. Implementation of the Agreement between Ukraine and the EU: economic challenges and new opportunities. (2016). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
8. The White Book: How to realize Ukraine's export potential under globalization. Proposal on the policy of promotion of the development of Ukrainian exports. (2016). Institute of Economic Research and Political Advice. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
9. Melnik, T., Pugachovska, K. (2017). Potential of the EU market of Ukrainian exporters. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: Economics, Finances, Law, 2(91), 5-18 [in Ukrainian].
10. Kovinko, O. (2017). Market attractiveness of the international agricultural markets. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: Economics, Finances, Law, 1(90), 57-73 [in Ukrainian].
11. Ukraine's export strategy: a road map for strategic development of trade 2017–2021. (2017). International Trade Centre. Geneva [in Ukrainian].
12. Ukraine lost about 90 % of exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan due to the RF transit limita-tions. Retrieved from hromadske.ua/posts/ukraina-vtratyla-blyzko-90-eksportu-do-kyrhyzstanu-ta-kazakhstanu-cherez-obmezhennia-tranzytu-rf [in Ukrainian].
13. Trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Retrieved from kazakhstan.mfa.gov.ua/ua/ukraine-kz/trade [in Ukrainian].
14. Trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey. Retrieved from turkey.mfa.gov.ua/ua/ukraine-tr/trade [in Ukrainian].
15. Kramar, Aleksandr. To crowd out Russia from Turkey. Antykor. Retrieved from antikor.com.ua/articles/78158-vytesnitj_iz_turtsii_rossiju [in Russian].
16. China forecasts corn imports at decade low, spooking exporters. Reuters. Retrieved from www.reuters.com/article/us-china-crops-corn-imports-idUSKBN15O0ZO.
17. Skvortsov, Denis. How Ukraine is using the many billion Chinese credits: energy sector, agro-industrial complex and construction. Sehodnia. Retrieved from www.segodnya.ua/economics/enews/kak-ukraina-osvaivaet-kitayskie-kredity-energetika-apk-i-stroitelstvo-695114.html [in Russian].
18. The greatest public grain trader explained where "the Chinese money" went. LIHABiznesInform. Retrieved from delo.ua/business/krupnejshij-gostrejder-zerna-objasnil-kuda-delis-kitajskie-den-323136 [in Ukrainian].
19. Brovinska, Maria. The maize collapse. Is Ukraine under the danger of Chinese embargo? LIHABiznesInform. Retrieved from biz.liga.net/all/prodovolstvie/stati/3467811-kukuruznyy-oblom-grozit-li-ukraine-kitayskoe-embargo-.htm [in Russian].
20. "The new land grain corridor Russia-China". Retrieved from www.mcx.ru/news/news/show/60092.355.htm [in Russian].
21. Heyets, V., Ostashko, T., Shynkaruk, L. (Eds.). (2014). Assessment of the impact of the Agree-ment of Association/FTA between Ukraine and the EU on Ukraine's economy. Institute for Econom-ics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
№ 3/2017
VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych1, OSIPOV Volodymyr 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute of Market Problems and Economic and Environmental Research
Domestic market as a development factor for Ukraine's metal industry
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 3:69-84 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.03.069 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers the preconditions for the transformation of Ukraine's metallurgical industry into a global producer and exporter of metal products. It is shown that this process began in the early 90's of the 20th century, after inheritance, from the former USSR, of a powerful mining and metallurgical complex representing an integrate technological system from extraction and processing of iron ore to the production of finished rolled metal and pipes. An additional factor contributing to the development of the industry's foreign economic activities was its resource potential based on the presence of national highly skilled personnel, domestic raw material base and numerous production facilities able not only to fully satisfy the needs of the domestic market but also provide significant volumes of exports.
The authors prove that, due to its export orientation, Ukrainian metallurgical industry of Ukraine has become a hostage to the foreign economic situation, which in adverse periods negatively affects its development. It is shown that this negative influence is manifested, first of all in the decrease of domestic output and exports of metal products, lower profitability of the metallurgical enterprises, and reduction of production personnel.
In order to reduce the negative impact of the foreign trade situation on the development of domestic metallurgical industry, the authors have analyzed the experience of the largest steel producing countries. It is proved that the main outlets of these countries are their domestic markets. In particular, the share of domestic consumption of metal products in the five largest steel producing countries in their total metal output in 2015 ranged from 64.5% in Japan to almost 99.1% in Germany, while in Ukraine the share of domestic consumption of metal products in 2015 was only 16.6%.
Based on the results of the research, the authors develop and propose guidelines for the reorientation of domestic metal producers to the priority satisfaction of domestic demand through intensive development of domestic metal consumption. In particular, they prove that increasing the domestic consumption of metal products can be achieved through the development and implementation of national programs in industry, especially in construction, engineering, transport, energy and housing and public utilities.
Also, the research has proved that expansion of the domestic metal market is only possible with increase in the output of deeply processed metal products and creation of their new types, improved quality and competitiveness, reduced resource intensity of the sector, as well as with innovation based upgrade of machinery and technology for the production of metal products; and reduced environmental hazards. It is impossible to achieve these goals without a radical modernization of the metallurgical enterprises.
Keywords: Ukraine's metal sector; domestic market; metal consuming industries, export of metal products, import of metal products; foreign conjuncture
JEL: F 14, O 10
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 69 - 84) | Download | Downloads :866 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Bol'shakov, V., Tubol'tsev, L. (2014). Ferrous metallurgy and national safety of Ukraine. Visnyk NAN Ukrainy – Bulletin of NAS of Ukraine, 9, 48-58 [in Ukrainian].
3. Vlasiuk, T. (2016). Metallurgical industry of Ukraine in the world market: problems and priorities. Naukovyj visnyk Natsional'noi akademii statystyky, obliku ta audytu – Scientific Bulletin of the National Academy of Statistics, Account and Audit, 3, 91-103 [in Ukrainian].
4. Kulyk, I. (2012). The modern state and basic factors of development of ferrous metallurgy in Ukraine. Biznes Inform – Biznes Inform, 5, 116-121 [in Ukrainian].
5. Kulyts'kyj, S. (2015). Current development problems of Ukrainian mining and metallurgy complex. Ukraina: podii, fakty, komentari – Ukraine: events, facts, comments, 14. URL: nbuviap.gov.ua/images/ukraine/2015/ukr14.pdf [in Ukrainian].
6. Obolens'ka, T., Dovhan', D. (2015). Ukraine in the world market of ferrous metals. Visnyk L'vivs'koho universytetu. Seriia "Mizhnarodni vidnosyny" – Bulletin of the Lviv University. Series International Relations, 36 (3), 169-176 [in Ukrainian].
7. Kyrij, V., Chichkan', O. (2012). Principles of the formation of financial-industrial groups in Ukraine. Innovatsijna ekonomika – Innovative economy, 2, 269-272 [in Ukrainian].
8. Venher, V., Tochylin, V. (2010). Features of co-operation between the state and business in the field of the mining-and-metallurgy complex of Ukraine: from support to partnership. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 114-128 [in Ukrainian].
9. Law of Ukraine On realization of economic experiment on the enterprises of the mining-and-metallurgy complex of Ukraine. 934-XIV (lost an action) (1999, July 17). URL: zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=934-14 [in Ukrainian].
10. Input-Output Tables (2014). Derzhstat Ukrainy. URL: www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
11. Steel: A Permanent Material in The Circular Economy. World Steel Association. URL: www.worldsteel.org
12. Problems, directions and factors in the promotion of the development of Ukraine's domestic market (real sector) (2013). NAS of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
13. 65% of Ukraine's metal assets are completely worn out. Vtormet. URL: vtormet [in Russian].
14. Pustovojt, O. (2016). Institutional nature of economic cycles. Experience of Ukraine. NAS of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
№ 1/2021
VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych1, SHUMSKA Svitlana Stepanivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
UKRAINE'S METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY: OUTPUT DYNAMICS THROUGH THE PRISM OF EXTERNAL FACTORS
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 1:7-31 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.01.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Domestic metallurgical industry is an integral part of the world industry, and its development takes place in the context of global trends, such as constant growth of metallurgical production with simultaneous excess of smelting, increasing concentration of production, and increasing consumption and export of metal products in TOP-15 leading smelting countries. The main consequence of such trends is a significant intensification of competition on the global steel market.
Despite the fact, that Ukraine’s metallurgical industry is an important participant in the global market of ferrous metals and raw materials for their production and has certain advantages in their production and export, like the whole Ukraine’s economy, is open and small in macroeconomic terms. This gives grounds to refer Ukraine’s metallurgical industry of to the category of "small open industry", which is characterized by export orientation, a small share of output in global output, exports, imports, and domestic consumption and, most importantly – by the lack of decisive influence on world prices.
Since Ukraine’s metallurgical industry is small and open, and the vast majority of its products are shipped to world markets, it was suggested that the dynamics of metallurgical output is directly influenced by external factors such as world steel prices, the hryvnia exchange rate and the price for natural gas. The obtained results confirmed the hypothesis that Ukraine’s metallurgical industry throughout the entire study period was completely dependent on the action of external factors. In particular, the favorable price situation on the global market of metal products ensured a high dynamics of metallurgical output. At the same time, devaluation of Ukrainian national currency in different periods had different effects. The price for natural gas restrained the metallurgical output throughout the entire study period.
Keywords:Ukraine’s metallurgical industry, small open industry, external factors, world steel price, hryvnia exchange rate, price for natural gas, econometric model
JEL: E37, F10, F43, L61
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 31) | Download | Downloads :536 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Korablin, S.O. (2016). Leading growth model: economic factors and consequences for Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 74-85. doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.02.071 [in Ukrainian].
3. Venger, V.V. (2020). Growth factors and directions of state regulation of metallurgical industry of Ukraine. Thesis for a Doctor of Economics, Economics and Management of National Economy. Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
4. Aptekar, S.S., Amosha, A.I. (Eds.). (2005). Economic problems of ferrous metallurgy of Ukraine. DonGUET. Donetsk [in Russian].
5. Bol'shakov, V.I., Tubol'tsev, L.H. (2014). Ferrous metallurgy and national security of Ukraine. Visnyk NAN Ukrayiny– Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 9, 48-58 [in Ukrainian].
6. Amosha, O.I., Nikiforova, V.A. (2019). Development of the metallurgical smart industry: world experience and lessons for Ukraine. Ekonomika Ukrayiny – Ukraine economy, 9-10, 3-23. doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2019.09.003[in Ukrainian].
7. Burkyns'kyy, B.V., Venher, V.V., Osypov, V.M. (2018). National market of metal products: fuidelines of the formation of competitive development policy. Ekonomichni innovatsiyi: zb. nauk. pr. Instytutu problem rynku ta ekonomiko-ekonomichnykh doslidzhen' – Economic innovations: collection of scientific works of the Institute of Market Problems and Economic Research, 67, 8-21. doi.org/10.31520/ei.2018.20.2(67).8-21 [in Ukrainian].
8. Kasych, A.O. (2016). Modernization as a strategic task of Ukraine’s industrial development. Biznes-Inform – Business Inform, 7, 67-72 [in Ukrainian].
9. Makoghon, Ju.V. (2019). Ukraine’s domestic metallurgy market and concentration of the industry’s enterprises. Visnyk ekonomichnoji nauky Ukrajiny – Bulletin of Ukraine's economic science, 1, 68-75 [in Ukrainian].
10. Venger, V.V., Tochylin, V.O. (2013). Competition and competitors in regional ferrous metal markets. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 81-96 [in Ukrainian].
11. Pustovoyt, O.V. (2016). Ukraine’s economy: chaotic and cyclical fluctuations around the long-term growth trend. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 86-107. doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.02.083 [in Ukrainian].
12. Development of the ferrous metallurgy sector in Ukraine (2004). World bank. Kyiv: «Milenium» [in Ukrainian].
13. On the results of analysis of the implementation of the Law of Ukraine "On conducting an economic experiment at the enterprises of Ukraine’s mining and metallurgical complex. The Accounting Chamber of Ukraine. URL: old.ac-rada.gov.ua/control/main/uk/publish/article/164527?cat_id=38966 [in Ukrainian].
14. Heyets', V.M. (2000). Instability and economic growth. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
15. Korablin, S. (1998). A small dose of "devaluation" taken by the hryvnia may save the sick economy. Biznes – Business, 14 [in Russian].
16. Korablin, S. (2010, 22 October). Course dulls of raw economies. The mirror of the week. Ukraine. URL: zn.ua/ukr/finances/kursovi_tupiki_sirovinnih_ekonomik.htm [in Ukrainian].
17. How Ukraine lost its gas production and how it plans to increase it. URL: businessviews.com.ua [in Russian].
18. Whether the price for gas should be market based. Analytical note. (2015). Center for Economic Strategy. URL: ces.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/ces_paper_gas_prices_ukr.pdf [in Ukrainian].
19. The war in Donbass: realities and prospects for settlement. Razumkov Centre. URL: razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2019_Donbas.pdf [in Ukrainian].
20. The real price for coal during the war in Donbass: a look through the prism of human rights (2017). Kyiv: Vydavnytstvo TOV "ART KNYHA" [in Ukrainian].
21. Shums'ka, S.S., Bilotserkivets', O.H. (2013). Real effective exchange rate of the hryvnia: assessment of competitive advantages of Ukrainian goods and forecast for 2013-2014. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 2, 20-31. URL:eip.org.ua/dotss/EP_13_2_20.pdf [in Ukrainian].
22. Shums'ka, S.S. (2013). Empirical assessment of the impact of changes in the partial REER of the hryvnia on export and import flows in terms of foreign trade. Problemy ekonomiky – Problems of Economics, 1, 291-303. URL:www.problecon.com/annotated-catalogue/?year=2013&abstract=2013_01_0 [in Ukrainian].
23. How has the price of Russian gas for Ukraine changed over the past 24 years? (2016). Slovo i Dilo – Word and Business. URL: www.slovoidilo.ua/2016/02/12/infografika/ekonomika/yak-zminyuvalasya-czina-rosijskoho-hazu-dlya-ukrayiny-protyahom-24-rokiv [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2023
OSTASHKO Tamara Oleksiivna1, VENGER Vitalij Vasyl'ovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukraine’s trade policy in Asia under multipolar globalization
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 2:92-117 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.02.092 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article defines the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy under multipolar globalization, which assumes that the centers of development and trade are concentrated both among developed and developing economies. The article analyzes the development of Ukraine's trade with the leading economies of Asia - China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea, which have created a powerful pole of world trade in Southeast Asia. However, domestic exports to these countries are developing unevenly and at a moderate pace. The latter is explained by the specific features of the trade regime of these countries, primarily the high level of non-tariff market protection. Domestic exports to Asian countries remain extremely undiversified with the predominance of one or two goods in the structure: mainly ores and corn are exported to China, to India - sunflower oil, to Japan - ores and tobacco products, and to Korea - corn and wheat.
Diversification of commodity exports with an emphasis on goods with a higher share of value added is defined as an important direction of trade policy in relation to the leading countries of Asia. In particular, prospective agricultural export products to Asian countries are honey, chicken, dairy products, etc. Prospective industrial goods include inorganic chemical products, fertilizers, wood products, nuclear reactors, etc.
Recommendations for improving Ukraine’s trade policy have been developed, and the need is substantiated to conclude free trade agreements in order to further develop Ukraine’s trade with leading Asian countries. Also, the need to abandon the idea of negotiating a free trade agreement and investment agreement with China has been proven. The article analyzes the policy of economic patriotism pursued by the Indian government, in particular as a response to the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine. The authors note India’s disagreement on issues of opening markets for sensitive agricultural products, which causes the complexity and delay in the negotiations on free trade with this country. Access to the markets of Japan and the Republic of Korea is complicated by the high level of tariff and non-tariff barriers. However, the analysis of the trade policy of these countries shows that a significant part of markets of both agricultural and industrial goods in these countries were opened due to the numerous FTAs. It is recommended to initiate negotiations on free trade with Japan and the Republic of Korea in order to improve Ukraine’s competitive position in the markets of these countries
Keywords:multipolar globalization, trade, trade policy, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, industrial policy, regional trade agreements
JEL: F13, F14
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 92 - 117) | Download | Downloads :75 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. IMF (2000, April 12). Globalization: Threats or Opportunity International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/041200to.htm
3. Deutsch, Karl W., & Singer, J. David. (1964). Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability. World Politics, 16(3), 390-406. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from users.metu.edu.tr/home405/utuba/wwwhome/Deutsch.pdf; doi.org/10.2307/2009578
4. Pieterse, Jan Nederveen (2017). Multipolar Globalization Emerging Economies and Development. Open Access Publications from the University of California. Retrieved from escholarship.org/uc/item/2dr6q014
5. Chang, Mable-Ann (2021, May 17) A More Multipolar World. CKGSB Knowledge. China-focused leadership and business analysis. Retrieved from english.ckgsb.edu.cn/knowledges/a-more-multipolar-world/
6. Thinkers50 (2019). Thinkers50 Ranking 2019. Retrieved from thinkers50.com/t50-ranking/list-2019/
7. Petri, P.A., Plummer, M.G. (2020, June). East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia’s New Trade Blocs. Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE working paper. Retrieved from www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp20-9.pdf; doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3630294
8. Park, C.-Y., Petri, P.A., Plummer, M.G. (2021, October). Economic Implications of the Regional Petri Comprehensive Economic Partnership for Asia and the Pacific. ADB economics working paper series, 639. Retrieved from www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/740991/ewp-639-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.pdf; doi.org/10.22617/WPS210371-2
9. WTO (2022a). WTO Trade Profiles 2022 WTO. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_profiles22_e.pdf
10. Maiko, V.A. (2011). Foreign policy and economic priorities of Ukraine in the countries of Central, South and Southeast Asia. Ekonomichnyi Chasopys-ХХІ. Ukrayna – Economic journal-ХХІ, 09-10, 3-7. Retrieved from dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/48025 [in Ukrainian].
11. Honcharuk, A.Z., Mykal, O.K., Kobzarenko, A.M. (2011). Priority issues of Ukraine’s policy towards Asian countries. National Institute for Strategic Research. Kyiv. Retrieved from niss.gov.ua/doslidzhennya/mizhnarodni-vidnosini/prioritetni-pitannya-politiki-ukraini-schodo-krain-azii [in Ukrainian].
12. Honcharuk, A.Z., Drobotyuk, O.V., Kiktenko, V.O., et al. (2021). Ukraine and the countries of East, Southeast and South Asia: 2020 results and development prospects. National Institute for Strategic Research. Kyiv. Retrieved from niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2021-09/analytrep_12_2021.pdf [in Ukrainian].
13. Ostashko, T.O. (2021). Multipolarity of the World Trade: Challenges and "Corridor of Opportunities" for Ukraine. Economy and forecasting, 4, 24-43. doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2021.04.024
14. WTO (2022b). World Trade Statistical Review 2022. Statistical tables. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtsr_2022_e.htm
15. Sundaram, Asha (2022, April 13). India’s RCEP exit and its regional future. East Asia Forum Quarterly, 14(1). Retrieved from www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/13/indias-rcep-exit-and-its-regional-future/
16. Gamio, Lazaro, & Swanson, Ana. (2022, October 30). How Russia Pays for War. The New York Times. Retrieved from www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/30/business/economy/russia-trade-ukraine-war.html
17. WTO (2023a). China. WTO Tariff Profiles. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/tariff_profiles/CN_E.pdf
18. WTO (2022, March 9). China. Trade Policy Review. Report by the Secretariat. WT/TPR/G/415/Rev1. Retrieved from docsonline.wto.org/dol2fe/pages/ss/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/wt/tpr/s415r1.pdf&open=true
19. Ostashko, T.O. (Ed.). (2020). Modernization of the economic policy of the development of spheres of activity and markets: in 4 parts. Part 2: Trade Policy: Prospects for Ukraine’s Participation in the "One Belt, One Road" Initiative. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv. Retrieved from ief.org.ua/docs/mg/326.pdf [in Ukrainian].
20. Ukraine will export rapeseed meal and honey to China (2022, December 08). Landlord. Retrieved from landlord.ua/news/ukraina-eksportuvatyme-v-kytai-ripakovyi-shrot-i-med/ [in Ukrainian].
21. Ostashko, T., Olefir, V., Venger, V., Boiko, O. A. (2021). Comparative Analysis of the Trade and Industrial Policies of Ukraine and China in the Context of the Obor Initiative. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 24(2), 119-136. Retrieved from czasopisma.uni.lodz.pl/CER/article/view/10002; doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.24.15
22. McElwee, Lily (2023, February 23). Despite Beijing’s Charm Offensive, the EU-China Investment Agreement Is Not Coming Back. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved from www.csis.org/analysis/despite-beijings-charm-offensive-eu-china-investment-agreement-not-coming-back
23. Ostashko, T.O., Olefir, V.K. (2019). Prospects of free trade with China: development of domestic export and risks of import dependence. Economy and forecasting, 1, 124-152. doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2019.01.124
24. WITS (1990). India Trade Summary 1990. World Integrated Trade Solution. Retrieved from wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/IND/Year/1990/Summarytext
25. Irwin, Douglas A. (2021, July 22). India’s trade reforms 30 years later: Great start but stalling. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Retrieved from www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/indias-trade-reforms-30-years-later-great-start-stalling
26. Jung, Euijin. (2020, September). Potential Trade between India and the United States. In Euijin Jung, Arvind Subramanian, and Steven R. Weisman (Eds.), A Wary Partnership: Future of US-India Economic Relations. PIIE Briefing, 20(2), 47-70. Retrieved from www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/wary-partnership-future-us-india-economic-relations
27. WTO (2023b). Regional Trade Agreements Database. RTAs in force, including accessions. Retrieved from rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAListAccession.aspx
28. Schott, Jeffrey J. (2020, September). Has India’s Trade Negotiating Strategy Hit a Dead End? In Euijin Jung, Arvind Subramanian, and Steven R. Weisman (Eds.), A Wary Partnership: Future of US-India Economic Relations. PIIE Briefing, 20(2), 70-84. Retrieved from www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/wary-partnership-future-us-india-economic-relations
29. WTO (2022c). India. WTO Tariff Profiles. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/tariff_profiles/IN_e.pdf;
30. WTO (2020, November 25). India. Trade Policy Review. Report by the Secretariat. WT/TPR/G/403. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/s403_e.pdf
31. Alexandrov, O., Gavrylenko, N., Hrytsenko, A., Davymuka, O., Zamikula, M., Orlyk, V., et al. (2022). Republic of India: A Power on the Rise. Prospects for the development of Ukrainian-Indian relations. National Institute for Strategic Research. Kyiv. Retrieved from niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2022-07/ad-india-07-07-2022-gotove.pdf [in Ukrainian].
32. WTO (2022d). Japan. WTO Tariff Profiles. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/tariff_profiles/JP_e.pdf
33. WTO (2020, November 6). Japan. Trade policy review. Report by the secretariat. WTO. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/s397_e.pdf
34. JTI Ukraine (2023). European Business Association. Retrieved from eba.com.ua/en/member/dzhej-ty-interneshnl/
35. Zhdanov, Ihor (2022, March 11). Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 11th, 2022. Interfax-Ukraine. Retrieved from en.interfax.com.ua/news/blog/811466.html
36. WTO (2021, December 21). Republic of Korea. Trade Policy Review. Report by the Secretariat. WT/TPR/G/414/Rev.1. Retrieved from docsonline.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/TPR/S414R1.pdf&Open=True
Events calendar
M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
29 | 30 |