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№ 4/2011
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1, KORNEEV V. 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukraine’s mortgage market: restrictions and development prospects
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2011; 4:76-85 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors analyze the modern condition of Ukraine’s market of mortgage crediting, dy-namics of the volumes of mortgage credits, their value, structure of their participants, as well as prospects of and obstacles to the market’s revival in the medium run. Based on the analysis of the possibilities and available instruments of the state’s promotion for the mort-gage development, they make a series of proposals as to the prospective directions of fi-nancial support for the market’s revival, and urgent measures to improve its legal basis.
Keywords:mortgage market, mortgage, mortgage crediting, financial support.
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 76 - 85) | Download | Downloads :651 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Liamets S. Kharkivskyi sud vbyv ipoteku, Ekonomichna pravda, 2011, 28 zhovtnia, www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2011/10/28/303618.
№ 2/2013
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Restrictions of cash settlements in Ukraine: problems and prospects
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 2:32-42 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article, based on the analysis of the experience of Northern American, Euro zone and CIS countries, generalizes the strategies, measures and mechanisms of cash limitation. The author also analyzes the proportion of non-cash instruments in a series of countries and the preconditions for the development of special payment systems and identifies the level of the development of non-cash instruments in Ukraine and characterizes the state measures on cash limitation.
The article provides a series of recommendations to solve the problem with large volumes of cash flows in Ukraine, which are currently hindering this country’s economic development limiting the efficiency of regulatory monetary policy. The recommendations include the expansion of non-cash payments and special non-cash payment systems through the development of non-cash payments infrastructure, improvement of the banks’ marketing strategies and timely modernization of the electronic payment systems and information technologies
Keywords:cash, cash limitation, non-cash payment instruments, payment cards, ATMS, POS-terminal
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 32 - 42) | Download | Downloads :710 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Tkachenko M. Shveciya otkazhetsya ot nalichnykh, Gazeta.ru, www.gazeta.ru/financial/2012/03/23/ 4103109.shtml.
3. World Payments Report 2012, www.capgemini.com/sites/default/files/resource/pdf/The_8th_Annual_World_Payments_Report_2012.pdf.
4. Sayt Finance.ua Pro groshi, news.finance.ua/ru/~/5/2013/04/09/300022.
5. European Payments Council, www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/knowledge_bank_list.cfm?documents_category=2.
6. Fomchenkov T. Perekhod nalichnosti. Bumazhnye den`gi na rukakh u naseleniya ogranichivayut rost ekonomiki, Rosijskaya gazeta, www.rg.ru/2011/07/14/gref-site.html.
7. Bzhezynskyi D. Rosiyski chynovnyky proty gotivky, Ekonomichna pravda, www.epravda.com.ua/ publications/2013/04/13/370731/.
8. Mamonov M., Pestova A., Zameshenie nalichnykh deneg beznalichnymi, www.forecast.ru/ ARCHIVE/Analitics/Banks/Noncash_payments_CMASF.pdf.
9. Kharlamov P. Operaciya "terminal", Ekspert Ukraina, 2012, № 6 (336), www.expert.ua/ articles/9/0/9884/.
10. Mishenko V., Nikonova M., Rozvytok bezgotivkovykh rozdribnykh platezhiv i tekhnologiy samoobslugovuvannia kliientiv bankiv v Ukraini, Visnyk NBU, 2013, № 1, S. 20–25.
11. Ofitsiynyi sayt NBU, www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/index.
12. Koroleva A. Kesha ne nado, Expert Online, 2013, 23 marta, expert.ru/2013/03/27/kesha-ne-nado.
13. Ofitsiynyi sayt UPC, upc.ua/ru/news/1298.htm.
№ 4/2013
BRUS Svitlana Ivanivna1, BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 2, ROZHKOVA K. 3, SHELUDʹKO Nataliya 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Transformations of Ukraine’s banking sector under the economic depression: factors, effects, prospects
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 4:33-48 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the main preconditions and tendencies of the transformation processes characteristic for the modern stage of the development of Ukraine’s banking sector (exit of the European banks and their replacement with Ukrainian and Russian ones, consolidation of the banking capital, re-orientation to domestic resources, and credit stagnation). The authors emphasize the key structural and functional changes, which will define (restrict) the development of Ukraine’s banking sector in 2014. The article focuses on the importance of ensuring a stimulating influence of Ukraine’s banking sector on this country’s economic development in conditions of a conflict between the vectors of economic integration.
Keywords:banks, risks, recession, stagnation of the credit market
JEL: -
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 33 - 48) | Download | Downloads :839 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. S&P podtverdilo ocenku riskov bankovskogo sektora Ukrainy, economics.unian.net/rus/news/173409-sp-podtverdilo-otsenku-riskov-bankovskogo-sektora-ukrainyi.html
3. S&P otsenylo kachestvo regulyrovanyia y nadzora ukraynskykh bankov kak "sred-nee", www.capital.ua/news/2334-s-p-otse-nivaet-kachestvo-regulirovaniya-i-nadzora-v-bankovskom-sektore-ukrainy-kak-srednee
4. Sberbank Rossyy prodaet byznes v Ukrayne, forbes.ua/business/1339685-sberbank-rossii-prodaet-bank-v-ukraine
5. Commerzbank prodal ego ukraynskomu "Smart-kholdyngu", www.fixygen.ua/news/20120731/commerzbank-prodal.html
6. Platizhnyy balans Ukrainy za I pivrichchia. Оfits. sayt NBU, www.bank.gov.ua/
7. Osnovni tendentsii groshovo-kredytnogo rynku Ukrainy za lystopad 2013 r. Оfits. sayt NBU, www.bank.gov.ua/
8. Savytskyy, S.V. (2013). Transformatsiia investytsiynykh priorytetiv bankiv Ukrainy za stagnatsii kredytnogo rynku: pozytyvy i problemy. Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 3, 81.
9. Dilovi ochikuvannia pidpryiemstv Ukrainy. NBU (2013). 3, 10.
№ 3/2014
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Macroeconomic and institutional preconditions of the recovery of Ukraine's mortgage market
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 3:41-56 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the condition and characteristics of Ukrainian mortgage market development under the negative influence of financial crisis and in the process of its overcoming. Author justifies the important role of mortgage market for the recovery of economic growth, describes the dynamics and factors of the volatility in the volume of bank's mortgage debts, and investigates the reasons of the stagnation on Ukrainian mortgage market, and various features of the market's functioning and contributors' behaviour.
Further he deals with the present condition of the real estate market and the development prospects of the building industry. The article provides an assessment of the influence of legal regulation and institutional limits on the recovery of the mortgage market.
Based on the results of the research, the author makes a forecast of the prospects and further tendencies of the market's dynamics. Also, he proposes a series of essential measures to solve the main problems of legislate regulation, institutional and instrumental providing of the mortgage and real estate markets development. The measures involve eliminating the revealed defects and promoting the recovery of mortgage loans practicing and increasing its role in the providing of Ukraine's social and economic development.
Keywords: mortgage loans, mortgage market, real estate market, building industry, mortgage institutes
JEL: G21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 41 - 56) | Download | Downloads :641 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Pustyie prilavki-2: chto proishodit na ukrainskom ipotechnom ryinke vesnoy-2014. Prostobank KonsaltIng, www.prostobank.ua/zhile_v_kredit/stati/pustye _prilavki_2_chto__proishodit_na_ukrainskom_ipotechnom_rynkrynke_vesnoy_2014.
3. Natsionalnyi Bank Ukrainy, www.bank.gov.ua/.
4. Sukhonos M.K. Molodchenko T.H., Prasol V.M. (2014). Analiz tekhnichnoho stanu zhytlovoho fondu Ukrainy ta propozytsii shchodo yoho otsinky. Ekonomichnyi visnyk Donbasu, 1 (35), 51–55.
5. Onishchuk, H.I. (2004). Rekonstruktsiia zhytla v Ukraini: dosvid, problemy ta shliakhy vyrishennia. Nauchno-tekhnycheskyi sbornyk "Kommunalnoe khoziaistvo horodov", Vyp. 59. Seryia: Ekonomycheskye nauky, 3–10.
6. Aktyvnist rynku nerukhomosti 2000–2011 rr. Asotsiatsiia fakhivtsiv z nerukhomosti (rieltoriv) Ukrainy, www.asnu.net/pages/108
7. Pustye prylavky: chto proyskhodyt na ukraynskom ypotechnom rynke vesnoi-2014 / Prostobank Konsaltinh, www.prostobank.ua/zhile_v_kredit/stati/pustye_ prilavki_chto_proishodit_na_ukrainskom_rynke_zhilya_vesnoy_2014.
8. DFSMZhB, www.molod-kredit.gov.ua/cms/finansova-zvitnist.html
9. Statystychna informatsiia. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, ukrstat.org/
10. Ahentstvo z refinansuvannia zhytlovykh kredytiv, PAT «ARZhK», www.re-finance.com.ua
№ 3/2016
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Payment cards market in Ukraine: prospects and limitations of development
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2016; 3:51-65 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2016.03.051 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Over the recent twenty years, due to the rapid development of information and communication technologies and their active involvement in the banking business, credit cards have spread at the highest rate among the global instruments of retail payment. The active proliferation of pay cards offers significant prospects for stimulating consumer demand and intensifying economic processes, but also has a number of significant risks. According to this, the article analyzes the prospects and risks of the quick payment cards spreading in Ukraine. The author assesses the current state and modern trends of the payment card market in Ukraine compared with EU countries, and generalizes the practice of state support of the development of special means of payment in EU countries. There are conclusions about potential benefits of further spread of card payments in Ukraine, the main of which are: reduction of the volume of cash in circulation, revival of economic processes and their increased transparency, increase in tax revenues and approaching of Ukrainian financial markets to the world level. These advantages significantly exceed the potential risks. To finish with, the author provides guidelines and recommendations on the measures and instruments of state support of the development of payment cards market in Ukraine to contribute in the solution of the problem of the growing share of cash payments and increase the efficiency of domestic financial market.
Keywords: market of payment instruments, special means of payment, payment cards, non-cash payments, cash, POS-terminals
JEL: G210
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 51 - 65) | Download | Downloads :810 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Common indicators of payment card market development in Ukraine. National bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/category?cat_id=79219 [in Ukrainian].
3. Visa Net profit increased by 16%. Ekonomichna pravda – The economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2015/11/2/565649 [in Ukrainian].
4. The interchange fees regulation. European central bank. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/competition/publications/factsheet_interchange_fees_en.pdf
5. Program of card charges reduction in Poland. Narodowy Bank Polski. Retrieved from www.nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/system_platniczy/charges_reduction.html
6. New global retail study reveals consumer demand for new ways to pay. MasterCard. Retrieved from newsroom.mastercard.com/press-releases/new-global-retail-study-reveals-consumer-demand-for-new-ways-to-pay/
7. Results of the first quarter of 2016 the payment cards market. Ukrainian processing center. Retrieved from upc.ua/ua/news-ua/1487.htm [in Ukrainian].
8. The market of POS-terminals in Ukraine reduced. Prostobank-Konsaltynh. Retrieved from www.pro-stobiz.ua/plastikovye_karty/stati/rynok_pos_terminalov_v_ukraine_sokraschaetsya [in Ukrainian].
9. Statistical Data Warehouse. European central bank. Retrieved from sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browse.do?node=2746
10. Payment statistic for 2013. European central bank. Retrieved from www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pdf/pis/pis2013.pdf
11. Trends in development of E-Commerce in Ukraine. Ukrainian processing center. Retrieved from upc.ua/ru/news/1476.htm [in Ukrainian].
12. Lavalie, E. How to pave the way to market of non-cash payments. Forbes-Ukraina. Retrieved from forbes.net.ua/opinions/1410595-kak-prolozhit-put-na-rynok-beznalichnyh-platezhej [in Ukrainian].
13. NBU initiate the settlement P2P Lending. Ekonomichna pravda – The economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/news/2016/04/26/590781/ [in Ukrainian].
14. Preventing of the cheating in banks. Liha. Novyny – League. News. Retrieved from news.liga.net/news/economics/9235064-press_tsentr_predotvrashchenie_moshennichestva_v_bankakh.htm/ [in Ukrainian].
15. The PCI Security Standards Council. Ukrainian processing center. Retrieved from www.pcisecurity-standards.org/about_us/ [in Ukrainian].
№ 4/2017
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Trends and prospects of the Ukrainian credit market post-crisis development
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 4:59-70 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.04.059 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the transformation processes that took place in the credit mar-ket of Ukraine under the influence of the modern financial and economic crisis. In the article have been analyzed problems and factors that caused the long stagnation of the credit activity in banking sector especially in certain types of bank lending. The author notes that the main reason of such a long credit contraction in the banking sector was the week institutional development of the Ukrainian credit market in pre-vious periods. It is the lack of developed credit market institutions that caused prob-lems of proper protection of the creditors' rights, non-performing loans management and hedging of market risks.
In the article has been pointed out on the discovered tendency of active growth of the share of loans issued in the non-banking sector. At this stage, the trend is quite ac-tive, but mostly occurs in the segment of short-term consumer lending and in the area of instruments alternative to mortgage lending. Despite the market nature of the process reflecting this trend, due to the underdeveloped institutional infrastructure, it also poses a potential risk of increased fraud activity and over-indebtedness of the households.
Based on the analysis of the characteristics and processes in the Ukrainian credit market the author has made conclusions about the importance of state assistance in the development of regulatory and legal support of the Ukrainian credit market in order to restore bank lending and strengthen supervision of the non-banking sector of the credit market. It is emphasized that without a state-initiated solution of the institutional problems present on the credit market of Ukraine, the recovery of the credit market may take an indefinite period of time.
Keywords: credit market, institutional support of credit market, banks, non-banking financial institutions, investment lending, consumer loans, mortgage
JEL: G 210
Article in English (pp. 59 - 70) | Download | Downloads :647 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. The European Bank Coordination "Vienna" Initiative. Retrieved from vienna-initiative.com/
3. Monetary and financial statistic data. National bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=27843415&cat_id=44578# [in Ukrainian].
4. Development of non-banking financial institutions in Ukraine statistic data, National Commission Carrying Out State Regulation of Financial Services. Retrieved from nfp.gov.ua/content/oglyad-rinkiv.html [in Ukrainian].
5. Problem debt. A report commissioned by the Consumer Protection Partnership. 2014. Retrieved from www.financialliteracy.gov.au/media/558644/report-problem-debt-a-report-commissioned-by-the-consumer-protection-partnershipa4305510.pdf
6. Karlan, D., Zinman, J. (2008). Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts. Retrieved from karlan.yale.edu/sites/default/files/rev._financ._stud.-2010-karlan-433-64.pdf
7. Kuliba, L., Virchenko, A. Over-indebtedness in Ukraine 2016-2017. Retrieved from nabu.ua/images/tinymce/file/IFC_GfK_Over_ind_ukr%20%281%29.pdf [in Ukrainian].
8. Shekhar, AA., Bergthaler, W., Garrido, J.M., Ilyina, A., Jobst, A., Kang, K., Kovtun, D., Liu, Y., Monaghan, D., and Moretti, M. (September 2015). A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans. IMF Staff discussion Note, 15/19. Retrieved from www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1519.pdf
9. Vienna Initiative 2 Full Forum, Luxembourg, March 6, 2017, Report on the Proceedings. Retrieved from vienna-initiative.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI2-Full-Forum-March-2017-Report-FINAL-revised-published.pdf
10. Resolving solvency. Doing business. The World Bank. Retrieved from www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploretopics/resolving-insolvency
№ 2/2018
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Structural-functional deformation of the financial sector in the Ukrainian economy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:48-61 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.048 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The developed financial sector can play a significant supporting role in the economic development of the country. It is actual question for financial researchers to make proper estimation of the country's financial sector current role in supporting economic development to identify bottlenecks and find opportunities to improve the efficiency of the financial sector in executing of its social, economic and innovative functions.
In accordance to this, the article studied the changing of the Ukrainian financial sector's role in supporting the economic development in 2003-2017. The analysis of such parameters as the financial deepening of financial market segments, the intensity of capital accumulation and the redistribution of savings through the financial sector has been made. There is also discovered dynamics of the index of debt load (credit-to-GDP) in the Ukrainian economy and the identification of gaps with the credit-to-GDP trend line. The last one allowed determining of the influence of the Ukrainian credit market on supporting the economic growth in this period.
Conclusions are made about the characteristics of the financial sector's role and its impact on the allocation of financial resources into the real sector of the economy. It is noted that the main segment of the financial sector of Ukraine is still the banking with a major share of assets belonging to the government and central bank. Securities market and non banking financial institutions segments holding a just minimal share of financial sector.
Despite a major share of bank segment, such kind of financial sector's role in economic growth parameters as the intensity of attracting capital, monetization of the economy and financial depth after the start of the crisis are declining for a long period of time. As well as the credit-to-GDP indicator, the current state of which reflects a weak credit support of the economy and necessity of measures to stimulate credit growth.
Keywords: financial sector, financial depth, credit, money supply, banking sector, non-bank financial institutions, credit market, credit-to-GDP
JEL: E 58, F 31
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 48 - 61) | Download | Downloads :702 |
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2. Arcand, J.-L., Berkes, E., Panizza, U. (2012). Too Much Finance? IMF Working Paper WP/12/161. Retrieved from www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12161.pdf
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№ 1/2020
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE INTERACTION OF FINANCIAL OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 1:142-157 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.142 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article summarizes current approaches to the theoretical substantiation of the effects of financial openness on emerging economies. The empirical data on the verifying financial openness effects, in particular the promotion of capital inflows into emerging economies and their productive development in the context of globalization processes, are analyzed. An attempt has been made to identify the influence of the interest rate factor on the direction of the redistribution of international capital flows. Generalized the patterns of the distribution of capital movement instruments depending on the level of development of financial institutions and signs of the capital flows’ strong deformation impact on financial markets with underdeveloped institutional environment.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that under the conditions of the ”new normality”, characterized by an increase in the volume of free movement of volatile capital flows, an increase in the level of financial openness, contrary to theoretical provisions, does not directly cause the inflow of foreign capital. At the same time, attracting foreign capital on a free, unregulated basis has a limited impact on economic development and mainly finances only the existing, well-functioning, high-yield markets and industries. Contemporary realities and the approach to the evaluation of foreign direct investment as the most effective and less volatile instruments of attracting foreign capital do not correspond to the current state of things. In today’s context, only a small part of the FDI arrive into the real sector, while the bulk of them are localized in high-yield segments of the financial markets and used for tax evasion.
The lack of direct dependence of international capital flows on the spread of capital yields and the level of financial openness leads to the conclusion that, in addition to the classical factors, the drivers of foreign capital inflow include positive economic dynamics of the recipient country and presence of high-yield markets. At the same time, signs of sustainable economic growth or recession by themselves encourage capital inflow or outflow from the country. At the same time, the presence of a developed financial sector reduces the risks of instability and increases the investment component of financial openness. These conditions form an inverse relationship between macroeconomic dynamics, the level of development of the institutional environment and the change in the level of real financial openness of the economy.
Keywords:economic growth, investments, capital flows, financial openness, financial sector
JEL: E 58, F 31
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 142 - 157) | Download | Downloads :474 |
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doi.org/10.5089/9781513531083.001
№ 2/2022
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1, BRUS Svitlana Ivanivna2, SHPANEL-YUKHTA Oleksii Ihorovych3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
PROSPECTS AND OBSTACLES TO THE RESTRUCTURING OF UKRAINE’S EXTERNAL STATE OBLIGATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 2:7-28 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.02.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security.
The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total.
The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative).
The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.
The publication was prepared within the research project on "Ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy in Ukraine in conditions of global economic destabilization" (State Registration No: 0121U000024).
Keywords:public debt, government’s external debt liabilities, GDP-warrants, restructuring and write-off of external debt, external state loans
JEL: H63
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 28) | Download | Downloads :115 |
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