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№ 2/2006
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The activities of the banks as depositares and recorders on Ukraine’s stock market
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2006; 2:117-126 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author deals with deposit service on Ukraine's stock market. The article pro-vides justification of measures to raise the level of the banks' service for their cli-ents as regards deposit-related services
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 117 - 126) | Download | Downloads :591 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Khoruzhij S.G. Pro deyak problemi rinku cnnikh paperv, Finansovye riski, 2000, № 2, S. 5–6.
3. Pro Natsionalnu depozytarnu systemu ta osoblyvosti elektronnogo obigu tsinnykh paperiv v Ukraini, Zakon Ukrainy vid 10 grudnia 1997 roku № 710 97-VR Elekt-ronna zakonodavcha baza danykh "Liga".
4. Doklad "O konceptual`nykh podkhodakh k mestu i roli depozitarnoj deyatel`nosti na sovremennom rynke cennykh bumag" ot 1 iyulya 1997 g., Depozitarium, 1997, № 1, S. 8–11.
5. Baranovskyi O.I. Depozytarna diialnist, svitovyi dosvid i Ukraina , Tsinni papery Ukrainy, 1999, 48(85), S. 24–25.
6. Pro perelik bankiv, yaki maiut bankivsku litsenziiu ta pysmovyi dozvil na zdiysnennia operatsiy, u tomu chysli z valiutnymy tsinnostiamy, Lyst Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy vid 10 travnia 2005 roku № 41-211 1486-4718 , Elektronna zakonodavcha baza danykh "Liga".
7. Adamova K.R. Depozitarnye operacii kommercheskogo banka, Metod. posobie, M., Yzd-vo "BDTs-Press", 2001, S. 94.
8. Zvit Derzhavnoi komisii z tsinnykh paperiv ta fondovogo rynku za 2004 r., http,//www.ssmsc.gov.u
9. Pro vporiadkuvannia diialnosti z vedennia reiestriv vlasnykiv imennykh tsinnykh paperiv, Rishennia Derzhavnoi komisii z tsinnykh paperiv ta fondovogo rynku vid 26 travnia 1998 roku № 60, Elektronna zakonodavcha baza danykh "Liga".
10. Khoruzhij S.G. Vikonannya ugod z cnnimi paperami v depozitarnj sistem, Finansovye riski, 2001, № 1, S. 5–10.
11. Remnev A.A. Kastodian na rossijskom rynke , Depozitarium, 1999, № 5 (14), S. 3–6.
12. Yatseniuk A. Fondovyi rynok Ukrainy, problemy ta perspektyvy rozvytku, Visnyk NBU, 2004, № 11, S. 4–9.
№ 4/2011
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Banks on Ukraine’s stock market: the change of investment priorities
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2011; 4:86-96 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author characterizes the peculiarities of the banks’ work on Ukraine’s, carries our quali-tative and quantitative analysis of the banks’ investments in securities against the back-ground of the general expansion of active operations, and points out that, in recent years, the banks’ investment portfolio has a tendency to increase. The article provides conclusions about a possible revival of the banks’ activities on the stock market.
Keywords:Bank, stock market, investment portfolio, banks’ activities
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 86 - 96) | Download | Downloads :574 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Lutsiv B.L. Investytsiynyi bankivskyi portfel, K., Libra, 2002, 192 s.
3. Vovchak O. D. Bankivska investytsiyna diialnist v Ukraini, Lviv, Vydvo Lviv. komerts. akad, 2005, 544 s.
4. Moroz A.M, Savluk M.I. Bankivski operatsii, pidruchnyk, 2ge vyd.. ta dop., za red. A.M.Moroza, K., KNEU, 2002, 476 s.
5. Peresada A. A. Upravlinnia investytsiynym protsesom, K., Libra, 2002.
6. Sharp U., G.Aleksander , Bejli G. Investicii : per. s angl., M., YNFRAM, 2003, 1028 s.
7. Osnovni pokaznyky diialnosti bankiv Ukrainy na 1 zhovtnia 2011 roku, <www.bank.gov.ua>.
8. Richnyi zvit Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy za 2009 rik <www.bank.gov.ua>.
9. Richnyi zvit Natsionalnogo banku Ukrainy za 2010 rik, <www.bank.gov.ua>.
10. Bankovskoe delo, uchebnik, 2e izd pererab. i dop., pod. red. O.I. Lavrushina, M., Finansy i statistika, 2005, 607 s.
11. Zvit Natsionalnoi komisii z tsinnykh paperiv ta fondovogo rynku Ukrainy za 2009 r., www. ssmsc.gov.ua.
12. Zvit Natsionalnoi komisii z tsinnykh paperiv ta fondovogo rynku Ukrainy za 2010 r., www. ssmsc.gov.ua.
13. Informatsiyna dovidka shodo rozvytku fondovogo rynku Ukrainy protiagom sichnia, veresnia 2011 roku, www. ssmsc.gov.ua.
№ 4/2013
BRUS Svitlana Ivanivna1, BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 2, ROZHKOVA K. 3, SHELUDʹKO Nataliya 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Transformations of Ukraine’s banking sector under the economic depression: factors, effects, prospects
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 4:33-48 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the main preconditions and tendencies of the transformation processes characteristic for the modern stage of the development of Ukraine’s banking sector (exit of the European banks and their replacement with Ukrainian and Russian ones, consolidation of the banking capital, re-orientation to domestic resources, and credit stagnation). The authors emphasize the key structural and functional changes, which will define (restrict) the development of Ukraine’s banking sector in 2014. The article focuses on the importance of ensuring a stimulating influence of Ukraine’s banking sector on this country’s economic development in conditions of a conflict between the vectors of economic integration.
Keywords:banks, risks, recession, stagnation of the credit market
JEL: -
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 33 - 48) | Download | Downloads :840 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. S&P podtverdilo ocenku riskov bankovskogo sektora Ukrainy, economics.unian.net/rus/news/173409-sp-podtverdilo-otsenku-riskov-bankovskogo-sektora-ukrainyi.html
3. S&P otsenylo kachestvo regulyrovanyia y nadzora ukraynskykh bankov kak "sred-nee", www.capital.ua/news/2334-s-p-otse-nivaet-kachestvo-regulirovaniya-i-nadzora-v-bankovskom-sektore-ukrainy-kak-srednee
4. Sberbank Rossyy prodaet byznes v Ukrayne, forbes.ua/business/1339685-sberbank-rossii-prodaet-bank-v-ukraine
5. Commerzbank prodal ego ukraynskomu "Smart-kholdyngu", www.fixygen.ua/news/20120731/commerzbank-prodal.html
6. Platizhnyy balans Ukrainy za I pivrichchia. Оfits. sayt NBU, www.bank.gov.ua/
7. Osnovni tendentsii groshovo-kredytnogo rynku Ukrainy za lystopad 2013 r. Оfits. sayt NBU, www.bank.gov.ua/
8. Savytskyy, S.V. (2013). Transformatsiia investytsiynykh priorytetiv bankiv Ukrainy za stagnatsii kredytnogo rynku: pozytyvy i problemy. Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 3, 81.
9. Dilovi ochikuvannia pidpryiemstv Ukrainy. NBU (2013). 3, 10.
№ 2/2018
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Non-state pension funds as institutional investors: trends and development problems
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:62-75 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.062 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The state is not able to provide pensions and normal social living standards for non-working pensioners. Financing of the Pension Fund of Ukraine deficit in 2017 from the State Budget of Ukraine is planned at the level of 141.3 billion UAH, which is almost 50% of the total amount of funds in the Pension Fund. In 2003, the Law of Ukraine "On non-state pension provision" was adopted in Ukraine, which should have been an impetus for pension reform through the launch of personal pension accumulation mechanisms.
Non-state pension funds are characterized by a policy of forming a portfolio of investment instruments of the lowest risk, but the main condition is the receipt of investment income, which would not only ensure the growth of pension assets, but also protect of funds from inflationary risks.
Pension funds, in turn, operating large volumes of assets, should become, for the financial market, the largest so-called institutional investors, who will offer the market large and long-term financial resources.
The share of return on investment in NPF assets and the return on investment both have decreased in recent years. The reasons for the decline in the profitability of NPF investments were the result of the following factors: revaluation of own assets after the change of the listing rules of the trade in the companies' shares, and the loss of NPF deposits in non-payment banks. In Ukraine, there are no tools that could guarantee an adequate return with a high level of reliability. There are no high-quality corporate securities on the market, and the level of return on deposits does not exceed the level of inflation.
The introduction of the second level of pension reform does not make sense without the reform of the financial system and the stock market and without the formation of a complete system of prudential supervision and regulation of the activities of the NPF and their administrators. An important factor for the reform of the pension system should be the clear orientation of the authorities for macro-financial stability, support for an efficient and stable banking system, and support for the development of insurance business.
Keywords: pension system, non-state pension funds, pension assets, pension contributions, investment activities of non-state pension funds, institutional investors, investment portfolio
JEL: G 11, G 23, G 28
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 62 - 75) | Download | Downloads :753 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. The Law of Ukraine No 0157-IV of July 9, 2003 On Non-State Pension Provision. Retrieved from zakon5.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1057-15 [in Ukrainian].
3. Taran, Lidiia. (27 May, 2013). Solidarity pension system: about the real factors of inefficiency. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the Week. Ukraine, 1145 [in Ukrainian].
4. The Pension Fund of Ukraine Official Site. Retrieved from www.pfu.gov.ua/pfu/control/uk/index [in Ukrainian].
5. Information on the state and development of non-state pension provision in Ukraine for 2008-2016. The National Commission, which regulates financial services official site. Retrieved from www.nfp.gov.ua/ua/Informatsiia-pro-stan-i-rozvytok-nederzhavnoho-pensiinoho-zabezpechennia-Ukrainy.html [in Ukrainian].
6. Zubik, S. (2017). Non-state pension prevision development in Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and Forecasting, 3, 31-50. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.03.031 [in Ukrainian].
7. Pension Markets in Focus 2017. Retrieved from www.oecd.org/pensions/private-pensions/Pension-Markets-in-Focus-2017.pdf
8. Lessons for the Pension Fund of Russia. Strategy of the world's pension funds. Re-trieved from www.vestifinance.ru/articles/42095 [in Russian].
9. Pensions at a Glance 2013. OECD and G20 Indicators. Retrieved from www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/pensions-at-a-glance-2013_pension_glance
№ 3/2020
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Transformation potential of the financial services industry under the influence of fintech: global and regional dimensions
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 3:41-55 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.041 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article defines the concept of fintech as an innovative industry and as a financial product. The processes and possibilities of using innovative technologies, in particular blockchain, artificial intelligence, Big Data, cloud technologies, artificial neural networks, and machine learning technologies for the financial services industry are generalized. The author notes the promise of the application of such innovative technologies for the expansion of crediting, reduction of credit, investment and other risks, personalization of financial offers for the client, trading, money transfers, insurance business, etc.
The world investments in fintech in the period from 2013 to 2019 are analyzed. The author points out the increase in total investment and average value of one transaction over the past two years. Analyzed the application of fintech for local markets and in various areas of the financial services industry, in particular investments in InsurTech.
The author shows the opportunities of the introduction of fintech in the regional section. It is concluded that the coverage of the population with fintech services is higher in the countries where the market of traditional financial services is less developed. Countries with developed financial markets have a conservative approach and a certain lag in the introduction of financial technologies. At the same time, the author points out a high level of concentration of investments in developed markets.
It is concluded that digitalization in the financial and other sectors in Ukraine is promising; in particular, it concerns non-cash payments of insurance companies, remittances and services related to RegTech. Highlighted the priorities for fintech in Ukraine in terms of improving digital literacy, cash economy, and development of fintech ecosystems.
The positive and negative effects of the introduction of fintech are considered. It is emphasized that the problems that need to be addressed relate to the risks associated with personal security, privacy, loss of personal data, cybersecurity, job cuts, and various other aspects.
The publication was prepared within the regular research project of the Department of Monetary Relations at the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine "Financial Services Industry in the Conditions of the "New Normality"” (state registration No 0118U003065).
Keywords:fintech, investments, digital technologies, financial services industry, digitalization, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud technologies
JEL: F23, G11, O31, O32
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 41 - 55) | Download | Downloads :525 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Ckinner, Chris (2017). 11 FinTech trends you need to follow. Retrived from thefinanser.com/2017/01/11-fintech-trends-need-follow.html/
3. Hill, John (2018). Fintech and the Remaking of Financial Institutions. Elsevier Science. doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813497-9.00004-4
4. Chishti, Susanne, Barberis, Janos (2016). The FINTECH Book. The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneurs and Visionaries. doi.org/10.1002/9781119218906
5. Deloitte (2019). Change The Way You Change How can banks stay ahead of the curve? Retrived from www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/technology /Cloud%20for%20Banks_v1_3.pdf
6. KPMG (2020). KPMG Global fintech. Share An overview of KPMG solutions, services and strategies for fintech. Retrived from home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2016/02/kpmg-global-fintech-fs.html
7. EY (2019) Global FinTech Adoption Index. Retrived from www.ey.com/en_gl/ey-global-fintech-adoption-index
8. PwC (2016) Blurred lines: How FinTech is shaping financial services. Retrived from www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/financial-services/fintech-survey/blurred-lines.html
9. Temirkhanova, M.T., Rudskaya, I.A. (2018). Innovative financial technologies: the russian experience and prospects of development fundamental. RESEARCH, 8 (111) [in Russia]
10. Global Fintech Fundraising Fell in First Half of 2019, with Decline in China Offsetting Gains in the US and Europe. Accenture Analysis Finds. Retrived from newsroom.accenture.com/news/global-fintech-fundraising-fell-in-first-half-of-2019-with-decline-in-china-offsetting-gains-in-the-us-and-europe-accenture-analysis-finds.htm
11. Shapoval, Ju. (2020). Use of cloud technologies in activities banks. Іntеrnаukа, 88-91 [in Ukrainian].
12. The Pulse of Fintech H1. Retrived from home.kpmg/ua/uk/home/insights/2019/08/pulse-of-fintech-h1-2019.html
13. The Pulse of Fintech 2018. Retrived from assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2019/02/the-pulse-of-fintech-2018.pdf
14. The Pulse of Fintech H2. Retrived from home.kpmg/ua/uk/home/insights/2019/08/pulse-of-fintech-h1-2019.html
15. Engert O., Flötotto M., O’Connell S., Seth I., Williams Z. (2019). Realizing M&A value creation in US banking and fintech: Nine steps for success. Retrived from www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/banking-matters/realizing-m-and-a-value-creation-in-us-banking-and-fintech-nine-steps-for-success
16. EY (2017). Global FinTech 2017. Retrived from www.ey.com/en_gl/ey-global-fintech-adoption-index
17. Using fintech to democratize financial services (2017). Retrived from www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/using-fintech-to-democratize-financial-services
18. KPMG (Archive). Retrived from home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/02/pulse-of-fintech-archive.html
19. The Future of Financial Services (2019). Retrived from www.willistowerswatson.com/en-US/Insights/trending-topics/future-of-financial-services
20. Fintech market of Ukraine: online lending (2019). Retrived from psm7.com/fintech/fintex-rynok-ukrainy-onlajn-kreditovanie.html [in Ukrainian].
21. Financial inclusion, innovation and non-cash operations in Ukraine - priorities of FinTech 2025 Development Strategy (2020). Retrived from bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/strategiya-rozvitku-fintehu-v-ukrayini-do-2025-roku--kurs-na-staliy-rozvitok-innovatsiy-keshles-ta-finansovu-gramotnist [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2022
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1, BRUS Svitlana Ivanivna2, SHPANEL-YUKHTA Oleksii Ihorovych3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
PROSPECTS AND OBSTACLES TO THE RESTRUCTURING OF UKRAINE’S EXTERNAL STATE OBLIGATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 2:7-28 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.02.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security.
The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total.
The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative).
The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.
The publication was prepared within the research project on "Ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy in Ukraine in conditions of global economic destabilization" (State Registration No: 0121U000024).
Keywords:public debt, government’s external debt liabilities, GDP-warrants, restructuring and write-off of external debt, external state loans
JEL: H63
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 28) | Download | Downloads :117 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2): 573-78. Retrieved from www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.100.2.573;
doi.org/10.3386/w15639|
3. Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2021, Sept.). The aftermath of debt surges. Retrieved from openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36279; doi.org/10.3386/w29266
4. Roubini, Nouriel (2021, Jun. 30). The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflation-debt-crisis-2020s-by-nouriel-roubini-2021-06?barrier=accesspaylog
5. Koziuk, V. (2012). The Optimal Level of Debt Burden: Global Macro-Financial Shifts and Transient Expectations. Finances of Ukraine, 1, 78-93 [in Ukrainian].
6. Bohdan, T. (2020). Debt capital flows and the spread of shocks in an emerging market economy (the example of Ukraine). Journal of European Economy, 19: 1, 123-150 [in Ukrainian].
7. Sidenko, V., Yurchishin, V., Markevich, K. (2015). Debts: a time to take and a time to give. Global trends and challenges for Ukraine. Analytical report. Kyiv: Zapovit [in Ukrainian].
8. Londar, S., Kuznietsov, K., Vereshchaka, I. (2016). The impact of the restructuring of external debt obligations to private creditors on the debt sustainability of Ukraine. Finances of Ukraine, 1, 39-56 [in Ukrainian].
9. Pynzenyk, V. (2017). Public Debt Restructuring: Models for Assessing Payments for Value Recovery Instruments. Scientific notes of NaUKMA. Economic sciences, 2: 1, 110-115. Retrieved from nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/NaUKMAe_2017_2_1_20; doi.org/10.18523/2519-4739212017119820 [in Ukrainian].
10. Lynina, I.O. (2020). Public Finance in Macroeconomic Growth Policy.Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Кyiv [in Ukrainian]
11. Help Ukraine, cancel its foreign debt (2022, March 10). Common. Retrieved from commons.com.ua/uk/help-ukraine-cancel-its-foreign-debt/ [in Ukrainian]
12. World Bank (2022). Finance For An Equitable Recovery. World development report. Retrieved from www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2022
13. Development strategies in a globalized world: Multilateral processes for managing sovereign external debt (2015). Note by the UNCTAD secretariat. Retrieved from unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdb62d7_en.pdf
14. Greece and Spain saved post-war Germany. And what does she do with her saviors today? (2013). Retrieved from ipress.ua/mainmedia/gretsiya_ta_ispaniya_vryatuvaly_pislyavoiennu_nimechchynu_a_shcho_robyt_vona_zi_svoimy_ryativnykamy_sogodni_16365.html
15. Buckley, Ross P. (1997). The Facilitation of the Brady Plan: Emerging Markets Debt Trading From 1989 to 1993. Fordham International Law Journal is produced by The Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). Retrieved from ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/ilj.
16. IMF (2021, March 23). Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/16/11/Debt-Relief-Under-the-Heavily-Indebted-Poor-Countries-Initiative
17. Deutsch Bank Market Research (2015, October 9). Analyst Reports: "Ukraine – Pricing the GDP Warrants", 16 September 2015; "Ukraine: Pricing GDP Warrants, Part II – Discounting the Cash Flows". Retrieved from www.weil.com/~/media/files/pdfs/2015/ukraine-sovereign-restructuring.pdf.
18. IMF (2020, November). The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2020/11/13/The-Role-of-State-Contingent-Debt-Instruments-in-Sovereign-Debt-Restructurings-49732
№ 4/2022
BRUS Svitlana Ivanivna1, DROBIAZKO Anatoliy Oleksandrovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Academy of Financial Management, Ministry of Finances of Ukraine
Factors of monetary and credit policy: world and Ukraine in the conditions of military aggression
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 4:109-124 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.04.109 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Starting with the global pandemic crisis, whose consequences included the disruption of logistics chains and the suspension in a number of economic sectors, the world economy is experiencing increasingly large losses. Full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation by many countries have made the global economy even more unstable and problematic. Macroeconomic problems are accumulating in the world, which will be a long term trend.
The article deals with Ukraine’s domestic financial and monetary sphere since the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014 and in the context of the post-pandemic global crisis. In the first months of the war, Ukraine – being a small open commodity based economy –managed to maintain the stability of money circulation and prevented panic in the financial markets, in contrast to 1998, 2008 and 2014.
The full-scale war continued the economic crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The interaction of the two crises deepens imbalances in both the global and Ukrainian economic and financial systems. As manifestations of the crisis, the article examines the disrupted supply chains of goods and raw materials, and the negative impact on the companies’ solvency due to reduced demand. On the other hand, with their financial injections, the governments prevent the rapid bankruptcy of unviable firms in order to preserve employment, which exposes the economy to new risks.
The article outlines expected developments in Ukraine’s financial system due to long war and the ensuing macroeconomic losses and uncertainty. Recommendations are given on urgent measures to support the banking sector in order to increase its liquidity and solvency under the conditions shaped in 2022.
The authors note that in the fight against inflation, it is necessary to take into account the increased energy prices, the disrupted logistics chains for commodity producers, the decreased export revenue, and the increased prices for critical imported goods. Anti-inflationary measures under such conditions could lead to stagnation and phase out domestic production.
Keywords:monetary policy, exchange rate policy, economic reforms
JEL: E30, E31, E32, E37
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 109 - 124) | Download | Downloads :135 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Riley, Charles (2020, February 25). Coronavirus is Fast Becoming an ‘Economic Pandemic’. CNN Business. Retrieved from edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/business/coronavirus-global-economy/index.html
3. Papava, Vladimer (2020). On the Atypical Economic Crisis under the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economics and Business, 4, 4-16. Retrieved from eb.tsu.ge/?cat=nomer&leng=eng&adgi=1056&title=On%20the%20Atypical%20Economic%20Crisis%20%20under%20the%20COVID-19%20Pandemic
4. Boon, Gert-Jan (2020, May 12). Amending Insolvency Legislation in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis. Harvard Law School Bankruptcy Roundtable. Retrieved from blogs.harvard.edu/bankruptcyroundtable/2020/05/12/amending-insolvency-legislation-in-response-to-the-covid-19-crisis
5. Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2020, July 1). Priorities for the COVID-19 Economy. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
6. Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2021, June 7). The Inflation Red Herring. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/chazen-global-insights/getting-finance-climate-improvement
7. Sachs, Jeffrey (2021, November 13). US Can Fight Inflation and Still ‘Build Back Better’. CNN. Retrieved from edition.cnn.com/2021/11/13/opinions/us-can-fight-inflation-build-back-better-sachs/index.html
8. Rodrik, Dani (2022, January 11). Inflation Heresies. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.jordantimes.com/opinion/dani-rodrik/inflation-heresies
9. Pride, Jason D., Reynolds, Michael T., and Vovk, Ilona V. (2022, January 10). Supply-Chainflation. Glenmede. Retrieved from www.glenmede.com/wpcontent/uploads/2022/01/Investment-Strategy-Notes-01-10-22.pdf
10. Marin, Dalia (2021, November 2). Will Deglobalization Fuel Inflation? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/dalia-marin
11. Roach, Stephen S. (2022, January 24). The Fed Is Playing with Fire. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/stephen-s-roach
12. Rogoff, Kenneth (2021, March 1). Are Inflation Fears Justified? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/bigpicture/is-inflation-alive?barrier=accesspaylog
13. Spence, Michael (2022, January 14). Regime Change in the Global Economy. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/michael-spence
14. WHO (2020, March 11). WHO Director-General’s Opening Remarks at the Media Brieting onCOVID-19. Retrieved from www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-brieting-on-covid-19---11-march-2020
15. IMF (2020, April 10). Policy Responses to COVID-19. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#U
16. Galbraith, James K. (2021, November 19). Whipping Up America’s Inflation Bogeyman. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/inflation-not-macroeconomic-problem-for-fed-by-james-k-galbraith-2021-11
17. Drobiazko, A.O. Liubich, O.O., Olijnyk, D.I. (2022). Optimizing the business models of state-owned banks under the conditions of increased requirements for financial security in 2022. Finansy Ukrainy – Finance of Ukraine, 1, 74-89. doi.org/10.33763/finukr2022.01.074.
18. The basic principles of monetary policy for 2022 and for medium-term perspective. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/rada-nbu-uhvalila-osnovni-zasadi-groshovo-kreditnoyi-politiki-na-2022-rik-i-serednostrokovu-perspektivu
19. Danylyshyn, B. (2022, October). Raising the discount rate to 25%: did the decision meet the expectations? Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/10/20/692834/
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