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№ 4/2002
Growth determinants of economic potential. The Polish case (in Ukraine)
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2002; 4:9-34 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author builds a new long-term yearly model W8-D for Polish economy whose basis is Cobb-Duglas productive function directed to the generation of potential GDP and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth is related to increase in domestic and external capital, as well as human capital. All those changes were subseequently endogenized.
The paper outlines a theoretical basis which starts from Solow’s extended productive function and allows to arrive in the theory of endogenous growth. The empirical part of the paper shows estimated values of productive function parameters for Poland (as example were taken data of 1966-1998). The author also calculates potential GDP. Further calculations show that its dynamics was chiefly influenced by the growth of primary production factors, being TFP growth rate only responsible for 10-30% of potential GDP growth. Overall influence of R&D volume constitutes about ? of TFP growth, and the decisive factor here is imported technology, while the influence of human factor is less than ? of TFP growth.
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 9 - 34) | Download | Downloads :222 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. BayoumiT, D.T. Coe, E. Helpman. R&D Spillovers and Global Growth Journal of International Economics, 1999, № 47, P. 399–428.
3. Benhabib J. and M.M. Spiegel. The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development , Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, № 34, P. 143–173.
4. Coe D.T, E. Helpman. International R&D Spillovers, European Economic Review, 1995, № 39, P. 859–887.
5. Coe D.T, E. Helpman , A. Hoffmaister. North-South R&D Spillovers , The Economic Journal, 1997, № 107, P. 134–149.
6. Courbis R, W. Welfe (eds.), 1999 , Central and Eastern Europe on its Way to European Union. Simulation Studies Based on Macromodels, P. Lang, Frankfurt.
7. Doma?ski S.R. [1997], Inwestycje w cz?owieka jako czynnik wzrostu i post?pu technicznego, (Human Investment as a Factor of Growth and Technical Progress), in, Kapita? ludzki jako czynnik wzrostu gospodarczego Polski, RCSS, Rada Spo?eczno-Gospodarcza, Warsaw, pp. 3-72.
8. Eaton J.E, Gutierrez and S. Kortum 1998 , European Technology Policy, Economic Policy, European Forum, 97, Blackwell Publ, pp. 405-432.
9. Fagerberg J. 1987 , A Technology Gap Approach to Why Growth Paths Differ, Research Policy, 16, (2-4) pp. 87-99.
10. Fagerberg J. Technology and International Differences on Growth Rates , Journal of Economic Literature, 1994, № 32, R. 1147–1175.
11. Felipe J. 1997 , Total Factor Productivity Growth in East Asia, A Critical Survey, Paper presented at the Project LINK Meeting, Kuala-Lumpur 1997, Asian Development Bank, Manilla.
12. Florczak W., L. Sabanty, W. Welfe [2000a], Nak?ady na badania i rozw?j (B+R) a produktywno?? czynnik?w produkcji, ( R&D Expenditures and Efficiency of Production Factors), Materia?y IEiS U? no 9/2000, ??d?.
13. Florczak W., L. Sabanty, W. Welfe [2000b], Szacunek kapita?u ludzkiego i jego endogenizacja. (Human Capital Estimate and its Endogenization), Materia?y IEiS U? no 11/2000, ??d?
14. Florczak W., W. Welfe [2000], Czynniki wzrostu gospodarczego w ?wietle bada? dotycz?cych dalekowschodnich rynk?w wschodz?cych (na podstawie funkcji produkcji), (Factors of Economic Growth in the Far East Emerging Markets-based on Production Functions), in, W. Ostasiewicz (ed.), Wyzwania i dylematy statystyki XXI wieku, Wydawnictwo AE im. Langego, Wroc?aw, pp 65-83
15. Gapinski J.H. Heterogenous Capital, Economic Growth and Economic Development , Journal of Macroeconomics, 1996, № 18, R. 561–586.
16. Griliches Z. Productivity, R&D and the Data Constraint, The American Economic Revue, 1994, № 1, R. 1–23.
17. Hers J. 1998 , Human Capital and Economic Growth, GB Report no 2, Quarterly Review of CPB Netherland Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, pp. 36–41.
18. Jones C.I. R&D Based Models of Economic Growth , Journal of Political Economy, 1995, № 103, P. 759–784.
19. Kim J. and Lau L.J. The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian, Newly Industrialized Countries Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, 1994, № 8, P. 235–271.
20. Liberda B., Tokarski T. Determinanty oszcz?dno?ci i wzrostu gospodar¬czego w Polsce w odniesieniu do kraj?w OECD, (Determinants of Saving and Economic Growth in Poland and OECD) // Ekonomista. – 1999. – № 3. – Р. 249–268
21. Lucas R.E. On the Mechanisms of Economic Development , Journal of Monetary Economics, 1998, № 22, P. 3–42.
22. Mankiw N, Romer D. and Weil D.N. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth , Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1992, № 107, P. 407–438.
23. Mulligan C, and X. Sala-i-Martin 1995 , A Labour-income based Measure of the Value of Human Capital. An Application to the States of the United States, NBER Working Paper 5018.
24. Rebelo S. Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth , Journal of Political Economy, 1991, № 98, P. 500–521.
25. Romer P.M. Endogenous Technological Change , Journal of Political Economy, 1990, № 98, S. 71 , S. 102.
26. Romer P.M. The Origins of Endogenous Growth, Journal of Economic Perspecti-ves, 1994, № 8, P. 3–22.
27. Shaikh A. 1974 , Laws of Production and Laws of Algebra. The Humbug Produc-tion Function, The Review of Economics and Statisties, 61, pp. 115–120.
28. Solow R. Technical Change and Aggregate Production Function, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1957, № 39, P. 312–320.
29. Tokarski T. [1995], Nak?ady na badanie i rozw?j a wzrost dochodu narodowego i wydajno?? pracy, (R&D Expenditures and Growth of National Income and Labor Productivity), Wiadomo?ci Statystyczne no 1, pp. 33-41.
30. Tokarski T. Post?p techniczny a wzrost gospodarczy w modelach endogenicznych, (Technological Progress and Economic Growth in Endogenous Models) // Ekonomista, 1996, № 5, Р. 581–604
31. Tokarski T. Czynniki wzrostu gospodarczego, (Factors of Economic Growth) // Wiadomo?ci Statystyczne,1997, № 3, Р. 1–20
32. Tokarski T. 1999 , Uwagi o modelach wzrostu gospodarczego, (Notes on Economic Growth Models), Studia Prawno-Ekonomiczne, 59, pp. 111–150.
33. Young A. The Tyranny of Numbers, Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience , Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, № 110, P. 641–680.
34. Welfe W. 1992 , Ekonometryczne modele gospodarki narodowej Polski, (Econo-metric Models of the Polish Economy), PWE Warsaw.
35. Welfe W, Welfe A. 1996 , Ekonometria stosowana, (Applied Econometrics), PWE Warsaw.
36. Welfe W. [1998], Modeling Inflation in Poland, Przegl?d Statystyczny, 45, pp. 309–329
37. Welfe W. 1999 , The Macroeconometric Simulation Model W8 of the Polish Economy, R. Courbis, W. Welfe (eds.) Central and Eastern Europe on its Way to the European Union. Simulation Studies based on Macromodels, P. Lang, Frankfurt, pp. 507-582.
38. Welfe W. Empiryczne modele wzrostu gospodarczego, (Empirical Models of Economic Growth) Ekonomista, 2000, R. 483–497.
39. Welfe W., Welfe A., Florczak W. [2000], ?redniookresowa prognoza rozwoju gospodarki polskiej, 2000-2010, (A Medium-Term Forecast of the Polish Economy 2000–2010), Materia?y IEiS U? 14/2000, ??d?
Growth determinants of economic potential. The Polish case (original in English)
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2002; 4:35-55 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author builds a new long-term yearly model W8-D for Polish economy whose basis is Cobb-Duglas productive function directed to the generation of potential GDP and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth is related to increase in domestic and external capital, as well as human capital. All those changes were subseequently endogenized.
The paper outlines a theoretical basis which starts from Solow’s extended productive function and allows to arrive in the theory of endogenous growth. The empirical part of the paper shows estimated values of productive function parameters for Poland (as example were taken data of 1966-1998). The author also calculates potential GDP. Further calculations show that its dynamics was chiefly influenced by the growth of primary production factors, being TFP growth rate only responsible for 10-30% of potential GDP growth. Overall influence of R&D volume constitutes about ? of TFP growth, and the decisive factor here is imported technology, while the influence of human factor is less than ? of TFP growth.
Keywords:
| Article in English (pp. 35 - 55) | Download | Downloads :234 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. BayoumiT, D.T. Coe, E. Helpman. R&D Spillovers and Global Growth , Journal of International Economics, 1999, № 47, P. 399–428.
3. Benhabib J. and M.M. Spiegel. The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, № 34, P. 143–173.
4. Coe D.T, E. Helpman. International R&D Spillovers, European Economic Review, 1995, № 39, P. 859–887.
5. Coe D.T, E. Helpman , A. Hoffmaister. North-South R&D Spillovers, The Economic Journal, 1997, № 107, P. 134–149.
6. Courbis R, W. Welfe (eds.), 1999 , Central and Eastern Europe on its Way to European Union. Simulation Studies Based on Macromodels, P. Lang, Frankfurt.
7. Doma?ski S.R. [1997], Inwestycje w cz?owieka jako czynnik wzrostu i post?pu technicznego, (Human Investment as a Factor of Growth and Technical Progress), in, Kapita? ludzki jako czynnik wzrostu gospodarczego Polski, RCSS, Rada Spo?eczno-Gospodarcza, Warsaw, pp. 3-72..
8. Eaton J.E, Gutierrez and S. Kortum 1998 , European Technology Policy, Economic Policy, European Forum, 97, Blackwell Publ, pp. 405-432.
9. Fagerberg J. 1987 , A Technology Gap Approach to Why Growth Paths Differ, Research Policy, 16, (2-4) pp. 87-99.
10. Fagerberg J. Technology and International Differences on Growth Rates, Journal of Economic Literature, 1994, № 32, R. 1147–1175.
11. Felipe J. 1997 , Total Factor Productivity Growth in East Asia, A Critical Survey, Paper presented at the Project LINK Meeting, Kuala-Lumpur 1997, Asian Development Bank, Manilla.
12. Florczak W., L. Sabanty, W. Welfe [2000a], Nak?ady na badania i rozw?j (B+R) a produktywno?? czynnik?w produkcji, ( R&D Expenditures and Efficiency of Production Factors), Materia?y IEiS U? no 9/2000, ??d?.
13. Florczak W., L. Sabanty, W. Welfe [2000b], Szacunek kapita?u ludzkiego i jego endogenizacja. (Human Capital Estimate and its Endogenization), Materia?y IEiS U? no 11/2000, ??d? .
14. Florczak W., W. Welfe [2000], Czynniki wzrostu gospodarczego w ?wietle bada? dotycz?cych dalekowschodnich rynk?w wschodz?cych (na podstawie funkcji produkcji), (Factors of Economic Growth in the Far East Emerging Markets-based on Production Functions), in, W. Ostasiewicz (ed.), Wyzwania i dylematy statystyki XXI wieku, Wydawnictwo AE im. Langego, Wroc?aw, pp 65-83.
15. Gapinski J.H. Heterogenous Capital, Economic Growth and Economic Development , Journal of Macroeconomics, 1996, № 18, R. 561–586.
16. Griliches Z. Productivity, R&D and the Data Constraint , The American Economic Revue, 1994, № 1, R. 1–23.
17. Hers J. 1998 , Human Capital and Economic Growth, GB Report no 2, Quarterly Review of CPB Netherland Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, pp. 36–41.
18. Jones C.I. R&D Based Models of Economic Growth , Journal of Political Economy, 1995, № 103, R. 759–784.
19. Kim J. and Lau L.J. The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian, Newly Industrialized Countries Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, 1994, № 8, R. 235–271.
20. Liberda B., Tokarski T. Determinanty oszcz?dno?ci i wzrostu gospodar¬czego w Polsce w odniesieniu do kraj?w OECD, (Determinants of Saving and Economic Growth in Poland and OECD) // Ekonomista,1999. № 3, Р. 249–268.
21. Lucas R.E. On the Mechanisms of Economic Development , Journal of Monetary Economics, 1998, № 22, R. 3–42.
22. Mankiw N, Romer D. and Weil D.N. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth Quarterly, Journal of Economics, 1992, № 107, P. 407–438.
23. Mulligan C, and X. Sala-i-Martin 1995 , A Labour-income based Measure of the Value of Human Capital. An Application to the States of the United States, NBER Working Paper 5018.
24. Rebelo S. Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth , Journal of Political Economy, 1991, № 98, P. 500–521.
25. Romer P.M. Endogenous Technological Change, Journal of Political Economy, 1990, № 98, S. 71 , S. 102.
26. Romer P.M. The Origins of Endogenous Growth , Journal of Economic Perspecti-ves, 1994, № 8, P. 3–22.
27. Shaikh A. 1974 , Laws of Production and Laws of Algebra. The Humbug Produc-tion Function, The Review of Economics and Statisties, 61, pp. 115–120.
28. Solow R. Technical Change and Aggregate Production Function, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1957, № 39, P. 312–320.
29. Tokarski T. [1995], Nak?ady na badanie i rozw?j a wzrost dochodu narodowego i wydajno?? pracy, (R&D Expenditures and Growth of National Income and Labor Productivity), Wiadomo?ci Statystyczne no 1, pp. 33-41.
30. Tokarski T. Post?p techniczny a wzrost gospodarczy w modelach endogenicznych, (Technological Progress and Economic Growth in Endogenous Models) , Ekonomista, 1996, № 5,Р. 581–604.
31. Tokarski T. Czynniki wzrostu gospodarczego, (Factors of Economic Growth) ,Wiadomo?ci Statystycz, 1997, № 3, Р. 1–20.
32. Tokarski T. 1999 , Uwagi o modelach wzrostu gospodarczego, (Notes on Economic Growth Models), Studia Prawno-Ekonomiczne, 59, pp. 111–150.
33. Young A. The Tyranny of Numbers, Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience , Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, № 110, R. 641–680.
34. Welfe W. 1992 , Ekonometryczne modele gospodarki narodowej Polski, (Econo-metric Models of the Polish Economy), PWE Warsaw.
35. Welfe W, Welfe A. 1996 , Ekonometria stosowana, (Applied Econometrics), PWE Warsaw.
36. Welfe W. [1998], Modeling Inflation in Poland, Przegl?d Statystyczny, 45, pp. 309–329.
37. Welfe W. 1999 , The Macroeconometric Simulation Model W8 of the Polish Economy, R. Courbis, W. Welfe (eds.) Central and Eastern Europe on its Way to the European Union. Simulation Studies based on Macromodels, P. Lang, Frankfurt, pp. 507-582.
38. Welfe W. Empiryczne modele wzrostu gospodarczego, (Empirical Models of Economic Growth) Ekonomista, 2000, R. 483–497.
39. Welfe W., Welfe A., Florczak W. [2000], ?redniookresowa prognoza rozwoju gospodarki polskiej, 2000-2010, (A Medium-Term Forecast of the Polish Economy 2000–2010), Materia?y IEiS U? 14/2000, ??d?.
№ 1/2007
A medium-term forecast for Poland strong recovery arrived
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2007; 1:9-30 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Long standing economic interests unite the Institute of economics and fore-casting, Ukrainian NAS, with the International UN LINK Project; International Insti-tute for Applied System Analysis (Austria); Institute of Economics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences; Independent Expert Group Consensus Economics Inc. (London, Great Britain); Berlin Institute of Economic research; Lodz University (Poland); Institute of economic forecasting (Russian federation); Institute for World Economy, Hungarian academy of sciences; Ministry of economy, industry and finances and University Paris-Nanter (France).
In October-November 2006, a regular Meeting of Project LINK Expert Group took place. In this issue, we are publishing (by the authors’ consent) some of the presentations of the above mentioned Meeting (the originals provided by the au-thors and their Russian translations). We do hope for research interests in getting acquainted with the opinions of the representatives of various transition economies as to the assessments of the prospects of economic development
Keywords:
| Article in English (pp. 9 - 30) | Download | Downloads :84 |
| Article in Russian (pp. 9 - 30) | Download | Downloads :223 |
REFERENCES ▼
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